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- Genre: Masters Thesis
Description
The spread of invasive species may be greatly affected by human responses to prior species spread, but models and estimation methods seldom explicitly consider human responses. I investigate the effects of management responses on estimates of invasive species spread rates. To do this, I create an agent-based simulation model of an insect invasion across a county-level citrus landscape. My model provides an approximation of a complex spatial environment while allowing the "truth" to be known. The modeled environment consists of citrus orchards with insect pests dispersing among them. Insects move across the simulation environment infesting orchards, while orchard managers respond by administering insecticide according to analyst-selected behavior profiles and management responses may depend on prior invasion states. Dispersal data is generated in each simulation and used to calculate spread rate via a set of estimators selected for their predominance in the empirical literature. Spread rate is a mechanistic, emergent phenomenon measured at the population level caused by a suite of latent biological, environmental, and anthropogenic. I test the effectiveness of orchard behavior profiles on invasion suppression and evaluate the robustness of the estimators given orchard responses. I find that allowing growers to use future expectations of spread in management decisions leads to reduced spread rates. Acting in a preventative manner by applying insecticide before insects are actually present, orchards are able to lower spread rates more than by reactive behavior alone. Spread rates are highly sensitive to spatial configuration. Spatial configuration is hardly a random process, consisting of many latent factors often not accounted for in spread rate estimation. Not considering these factors may lead to an omitted variables bias and skew estimation results. The ability of spread rate estimators to predict future spread varies considerably between estimators, and with spatial configuration, invader biological parameters, and orchard behavior profile. The model suggests that understanding the latent factors inherent to dispersal is important for selecting phenomenological models of spread and interpreting estimation results. This indicates a need for caution when evaluating spread. Although standard practice, current empirical estimators may both over- and underestimate spread rate in the simulation.
ContributorsShanafelt, David William (Author) / Fenichel, Eli P (Thesis advisor) / Richards, Timothy (Committee member) / Janssen, Marco (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
This study examined perception of K12 schooling systems as experienced by a randomsample of adults in Phoenix, AZ. It explored whether the values purported as key factors
in the American K12 schooling system - as presented in academic literature - were compatible with the lives, interests and goals of ‘users’, student-participants. In addition, it offered opportunity for post-K12 student-participants to share their views on the purposes, goals, and outcomes they held to be important. The sample consisted of 139 post-K12 stu-
dents/individuals residing in Phoenix, AZ. Mean age of student-participants was 29. Results indicated a mismatch between purported K12 schooling goals and important outcomes embedded in the system and values held by the K12 student-participants. The participants in this research generally perceived K12 schooling as valuable, both to themselves and to society at large, but stressed that the deficiencies they perceived in the system were particular to delivery platforms as they relate to the learning styles of students and belonging. Future life skills and success - in and after K12 schooling - whether related to college or not were also of importance. Results revealed that the initial hypothesis of income, age, and ethnicity as
key factors in satisfaction with K12 schooling was not borne-out. Rather it revealed that a sense of belonging and the suitability of learning platforms to the individual learning styles of students were of greatest significance.
ContributorsParker-Anderies, Margaret (Author) / Janssen, Marco (Thesis advisor) / Garcia, David (Committee member) / Mishra, Punya (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022