Matching Items (63)
Description
This dissertation creates models of past potential vegetation in the Southern Levant during most of the Holocene, from the beginnings of farming through the rise of urbanized civilization (12 to 2.5 ka BP). The time scale encompasses the rise and collapse of the earliest agrarian civilizations in this region. The archaeological record suggests that increases in social complexity were linked to climatic episodes (e.g., favorable climatic conditions coincide with intervals of prosperity or marked social development such as the Neolithic Revolution ca. 11.5 ka BP, the Secondary Products Revolution ca. 6 ka BP, and the Middle Bronze Age ca. 4 ka BP). The opposite can be said about periods of climatic deterioration, when settled villages were abandoned as the inhabitants returned to nomadic or semi nomadic lifestyles (e.g., abandonment of the largest Neolithic farming towns after 8 ka BP and collapse of Bronze Age towns and cities after 3.5 ka BP during the Late Bronze Age). This study develops chronologically refined models of past vegetation from 12 to 2.5 ka BP, at 500 year intervals, using GIS, remote sensing and statistical modeling tools (MAXENT) that derive from species distribution modeling. Plants are sensitive to alterations in their environment and respond accordingly. Because of this, they are valuable indicators of landscape change. An extensive database of historical and field gathered observations was created. Using this database as well as environmental variables that include temperature and precipitation surfaces for the whole study period (also at 500 year intervals), the potential vegetation of the region was modeled. Through this means, a continuous chronology of potential vegetation of the Southern Levantwas built. The produced paleo-vegetation models generally agree with the proxy records. They indicate a gradual decline of forests and expansion of steppe and desert throughout the Holocene, interrupted briefly during the Mid Holocene (ca. 4 ka BP, Middle Bronze Age). They also suggest that during the Early Holocene, forest areas were extensive, spreading into the Northern Negev. The two remaining forested areas in the Northern and Southern Plateau Region in Jordan were also connected during this time. The models also show general agreement with the major cultural developments, with forested areas either expanding or remaining stable during prosperous periods (e.g., Pre Pottery Neolithic and Middle Bronze Age), and significantly contracting during moments of instability (e.g., Late Bronze Age).
ContributorsSoto-Berelov, Mariela (Author) / Fall, Patricia L. (Thesis advisor) / Myint, Soe (Committee member) / Turner, Billie L (Committee member) / Falconer, Steven (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
Ten regional climate models (RCMs) and atmosphere-ocean generalized model parings from the North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program were used to estimate the shift of extreme precipitation due to climate change using present-day and future-day climate scenarios. RCMs emulate winter storms and one-day duration events at the sub-regional level. Annual maximum series were derived for each model pairing, each modeling period; and for annual and winter seasons. The reliability ensemble average (REA) method was used to qualify each RCM annual maximum series to reproduce historical records and approximate average predictions, because there are no future records. These series determined (a) shifts in extreme precipitation frequencies and magnitudes, and (b) shifts in parameters during modeling periods. The REA method demonstrated that the winter season had lower REA factors than the annual season. For the winter season the RCM pairing of the Hadley regional Model 3 and the Geophysical Fluid-Dynamics Laboratory atmospheric-land generalized model had the lowest REA factors. However, in replicating present-day climate, the pairing of the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics' Regional Climate Model Version 3 with the Geophysical Fluid-Dynamics Laboratory atmospheric-land generalized model was superior. Shifts of extreme precipitation in the 24-hour event were measured using precipitation magnitude for each frequency in the annual maximum series, and the difference frequency curve in the generalized extreme-value-function parameters. The average trend of all RCM pairings implied no significant shift in the winter annual maximum series, however the REA-selected models showed an increase in annual-season precipitation extremes: 0.37 inches for the 100-year return period and for the winter season suggested approximately 0.57 inches for the same return period. Shifts of extreme precipitation were estimated using predictions 70 years into the future based on RCMs. Although these models do not provide climate information for the intervening 70 year period, the models provide an assertion on the behavior of future climate. The shift in extreme precipitation may be significant in the frequency distribution function, and will vary depending on each model-pairing condition. The proposed methodology addresses the many uncertainties associated with the current methodologies dealing with extreme precipitation.
ContributorsRiaño, Alejandro (Author) / Mays, Larry W. (Thesis advisor) / Vivoni, Enrique (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Two critical limitations for hyperspatial imagery are higher imagery variances and large data sizes. Although object-based analyses with a multi-scale framework for diverse object sizes are the solution, more data sources and large amounts of testing at high costs are required. In this study, I used tree density segmentation as the key element of a three-level hierarchical vegetation framework for reducing those costs, and a three-step procedure was used to evaluate its effects. A two-step procedure, which involved environmental stratifications and the random walker algorithm, was used for tree density segmentation. I determined whether variation in tone and texture could be reduced within environmental strata, and whether tree density segmentations could be labeled by species associations. At the final level, two tree density segmentations were partitioned into smaller subsets using eCognition in order to label individual species or tree stands in two test areas of two tree densities, and the Z values of Moran's I were used to evaluate whether imagery objects have different mean values from near segmentations as a measure of segmentation accuracy. The two-step procedure was able to delineating tree density segments and label species types robustly, compared to previous hierarchical frameworks. However, eCognition was not able to produce detailed, reasonable image objects with optimal scale parameters for species labeling. This hierarchical vegetation framework is applicable for fine-scale, time-series vegetation mapping to develop baseline data for evaluating climate change impacts on vegetation at low cost using widely available data and a personal laptop.
ContributorsLiau, Yan-ting (Author) / Franklin, Janet (Thesis advisor) / Turner, Billie (Committee member) / Myint, Soe (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The partitioning of available solar energy into different fluxes at the Earth's surface is important in determining different physical processes, such as turbulent transport, subsurface hydrology, land-atmospheric interactions, etc. Direct measurements of these turbulent fluxes were carried out using eddy-covariance (EC) towers. However, the distribution of EC towers is sparse due to relatively high cost and practical difficulties in logistics and deployment. As a result, data is temporally and spatially limited and is inadequate to be used for researches at large scales, such as regional and global climate modeling. Besides field measurements, an alternative way is to estimate turbulent fluxes based on the intrinsic relations between surface energy budget components, largely through thermodynamic equilibrium. These relations, referred as relative efficiency, have been included in several models to estimate the magnitude of turbulent fluxes in surface energy budgets such as latent heat and sensible heat. In this study, three theoretical models based on the lumped heat transfer model, the linear stability analysis and the maximum entropy principle respectively, were investigated. Model predictions of relative efficiencies were compared with turbulent flux data over different land covers, viz. lake, grassland and suburban surfaces. Similar results were observed over lake and suburban surface but significant deviation is found over vegetation surface. The relative efficiency of outgoing longwave radiation is found to be orders of magnitude deviated from theoretic predictions. Meanwhile, results show that energy partitioning process is influenced by the surface water availability to a great extent. The study provides insight into what property is determining energy partitioning process over different land covers and gives suggestion for future models.
ContributorsYang, Jiachuan (Author) / Wang, Zhihua (Thesis advisor) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Vivoni, Enrique (Committee member) / Mays, Larry (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Land transformation under conditions of rapid urbanization has significantly altered the structure and functioning of Earth's systems. Land fragmentation, a characteristic of land transformation, is recognized as a primary driving force in the loss of biological diversity worldwide. However, little is known about its implications in complex urban settings where interaction with social dynamics is intense. This research asks: How do patterns of land cover and land fragmentation vary over time and space, and what are the socio-ecological drivers and consequences of land transformation in a rapidly growing city? Using Metropolitan Phoenix as a case study, the research links pattern and process relationships between land cover, land fragmentation, and socio-ecological systems in the region. It examines population growth, water provision and institutions as major drivers of land transformation, and the changes in bird biodiversity that result from land transformation. How to manage socio-ecological systems is one of the biggest challenges of moving towards sustainability. This research project provides a deeper understanding of how land transformation affects socio-ecological dynamics in an urban setting. It uses a series of indices to evaluate land cover and fragmentation patterns over the past twenty years, including land patch numbers, contagion, shapes, and diversities. It then generates empirical evidence on the linkages between land cover patterns and ecosystem properties by exploring the drivers and impacts of land cover change. An interdisciplinary approach that integrates social, ecological, and spatial analysis is applied in this research. Findings of the research provide a documented dataset that can help researchers study the relationship between human activities and biotic processes in an urban setting, and contribute to sustainable urban development.
ContributorsZhang, Sainan (Author) / Boone, Christopher G. (Thesis advisor) / York, Abigail M. (Committee member) / Myint, Soe (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Hydrology and biogeochemistry are coupled in all systems. However, human decision-making regarding hydrology and biogeochemistry are often separate, even though decisions about hydrologic systems may have substantial impacts on biogeochemical patterns and processes. The overarching question of this dissertation was: How does hydrologic engineering interact with the effects of nutrient loading and climate to drive watershed nutrient yields? I conducted research in two study systems with contrasting spatial and temporal scales. Using a combination of data-mining and modeling approaches, I reconstructed nitrogen and phosphorus budgets for the northeastern US over the 20th century, including anthropogenic nutrient inputs and riverine fluxes, for ~200 watersheds at 5 year time intervals. Infrastructure systems, such as sewers, wastewater treatment plants, and reservoirs, strongly affected the spatial and temporal patterns of nutrient fluxes from northeastern watersheds. At a smaller scale, I investigated the effects of urban stormwater drainage infrastructure on water and nutrient delivery from urban watersheds in Phoenix, AZ. Using a combination of field monitoring and statistical modeling, I tested hypotheses about the importance of hydrologic and biogeochemical control of nutrient delivery. My research suggests that hydrology is the major driver of differences in nutrient fluxes from urban watersheds at the event scale, and that consideration of altered hydrologic networks is critical for understanding anthropogenic impacts on biogeochemical cycles. Overall, I found that human activities affect nutrient transport via multiple pathways. Anthropogenic nutrient additions increase the supply of nutrients available for transport, whereas hydrologic infrastructure controls the delivery of nutrients from watersheds. Incorporating the effects of hydrologic infrastructure is critical for understanding anthropogenic effects on biogeochemical fluxes across spatial and temporal scales.
ContributorsHale, Rebecca Leslie (Author) / Grimm, Nancy (Thesis advisor) / Childers, Daniel (Committee member) / Vivoni, Enrique (Committee member) / York, Abigail (Committee member) / Wu, Jianguo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
This study performs numerical modeling for the climate of semi-arid regions by running a high-resolution atmospheric model constrained by large-scale climatic boundary conditions, a practice commonly called climate downscaling. These investigations focus especially on precipitation and temperature, quantities that are critical to life in semi-arid regions. Using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, a non-hydrostatic geophysical fluid dynamical model with a full suite of physical parameterization, a series of numerical sensitivity experiments are conducted to test how the intensity and spatial/temporal distribution of precipitation change with grid resolution, time step size, the resolution of lower boundary topography and surface characteristics. Two regions, Arizona in U.S. and Aral Sea region in Central Asia, are chosen as the test-beds for the numerical experiments: The former for its complex terrain and the latter for the dramatic man-made changes in its lower boundary conditions (the shrinkage of Aral Sea). Sensitivity tests show that the parameterization schemes for rainfall are not resolution-independent, thus a refinement of resolution is no guarantee of a better result. But, simulations (at all resolutions) do capture the inter-annual variability of rainfall over Arizona. Nevertheless, temperature is simulated more accurately with refinement in resolution. Results show that both seasonal mean rainfall and frequency of extreme rainfall events increase with resolution. For Aral Sea, sensitivity tests indicate that while the shrinkage of Aral Sea has a dramatic impact on the precipitation over the confine of (former) Aral Sea itself, its effect on the precipitation over greater Central Asia is not necessarily greater than the inter-annual variability induced by the lateral boundary conditions in the model and large scale warming in the region. The numerical simulations in the study are cross validated with observations to address the realism of the regional climate model. The findings of this sensitivity study are useful for water resource management in semi-arid regions. Such high spatio-temporal resolution gridded-data can be used as an input for hydrological models for regions such as Arizona with complex terrain and sparse observations. Results from simulations of Aral Sea region are expected to contribute to ecosystems management for Central Asia.
ContributorsSharma, Ashish (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Adrian, Ronald (Committee member) / Herrmann, Marcus (Committee member) / Phelan, Patrick E. (Committee member) / Vivoni, Enrique (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
The storm events of summer 2014 proved to be some of the highest on record for Maricopa County. Flash flooding has been an ongoing issue within Arizona during the monsoon season due to the remnants of hurricanes that result in short, high intensity storms. The proximity of these intense storm events and their corresponding flooding structures is imperative in reducing the impact of these events on the community. The analysis of the maximum precipitation events for Tempe, Scottsdale, Phoenix, Mesa, Chandler, Goodyear, Peoria, Avondale and Glendale during the summer of 2014 proved that there were many events that had a calculated recurrence of 100 years or greater. The storm event with the most precipitation events with a recurrence of 100 years or greater was September 8, 2014. This storm event also produced a streamflow response that had the highest recorded streamflow at gages near the events with a 100 year recurrence. These intervals represent a larger amount of rain during a precipitation event and this correlation suggests that short burst of extreme weather was not a trend in this data. Rather, high storm events occurred over the span of 24 hours. The most frequent response of the stream gage to this rain event was a streamflow event that has a recurrence of 2-5 years. This suggests that the channels and flooding structures used to contain the rain events were effective in reducing the amount of water and therefore effectively managing the flooding response. An analysis of newspaper commentary and an interview with a representative from the Flood Control District of Maricopa County (FCDMC) indicated that there is a disconnect between public perception and the structure of FCDMC. Through this analysis a better understanding of the FCDMC as well as the impact of severe storm events in Maricopa County was found.
ContributorsBrancati, Olivia Anne (Author) / Vivoni, Enrique (Thesis director) / White, Dave (Committee member) / Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering Programs (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, has become a common practice in United States oil fields for enhancing their productivity. Among the concerns regarding fracking, however, is the possibility that it could trigger shallow earthquakes. The brine that results from fracking is injected into the subsurface for disposal. This brine causes a pore pressure gradient that is commonly believed to trigger failure along critically stressed subsurface faults. In Timpson, a small city in eastern Texas, earthquakes have become much more common since two injection wells were installed in 2007. 16 events of M_W > 2 have been detected since 2008 and are believed to be associated with failure along a subsurface fault. Applying interferometric synthetic aperture radar, we analyzed 3 sets of SAR images from the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) from May 2007 to December 2010. Using these data sets, XX interferograms were generated. From these interferograms, it was possible to determine the spatial and temporal evolution of the crustal deformation in the line-of-sight of the satellite. The results show strong evidence of uplift in the region adjacent to the injection wells. While previous studies have established a strong connection between fluid injection and increased seismicity, this is to our knowledge the first observed case of crustal deformation that has been observed as a result of hydraulic fracturing fluid disposal.
ContributorsSedlak, Alexander Paul Woodward (Author) / Shirzaei, Manoochehr (Thesis director) / Vivoni, Enrique (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry (Contributor) / School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (Contributor) / School of Earth and Space Exploration (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
Thirty six percent of Americans are obese and thirty three percent are overweight; obesity has become a known killer in the U.S. yet its prevalence has maintained a firm grasp on the U.S. population and continues to spread across the globe as other countries slowly adopt the American lifestyle. A survey was compiled collecting demographic and body mass index (BMI) information, as well as Tanofsky-Kraff’s (2009) “Assess Eating in the Absence of Hunger” survey questions. The survey used for this study was emailed out to Arizona State University students in Barrett, The Honors College, and the ASU School of Nutrition and Health Promotion listservs. A total of 457 participants completed the survey, 72 males and 385 females (mean age, 24.5±7.7 y; average body mass index (BMI), 23.4 ± 4.8 [a BMI of 25-29.9 is classified as overweight]). When comparing BMI with the living situation, 71% of obese students were living at home with family versus off campus with friends or alone. For comparison, 45% of normal weight students lived at home with family. These data could help structure prevention plans targeting college students by focusing on weight gain prevention at the family level. Results from the Tanofsky-Kraff (2009) survey revealed there was not a significant relationship between external or physical cues and BMI in men or women, but there was a significant positive correlation between emotional cues and BMI in women only. Anger and sadness were the emotional cues in women related to initiating consumption past satiation and consumption following several hours of fasting. Although BMI was inversely related to physical activity in this sample (r = -0.132; p=0.005), controlling for physical activity did not impact the significant associations of BMI with anger or sadness (P>0.05). This information is important in targeting prevention programs to address behavioral change and cognitive awareness of the effects of emotion on over-consumption.
ContributorsGarza, Andrea Marie (Author) / Johnston, Carol (Thesis director) / Jacobs, Mark (Committee member) / Coletta, Dawn (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2013-05