Matching Items (105)
Description
Surveys have shown that several hundred billion weather forecasts are obtained by the United States public each year, and that weather news is one of the most consumed topics in the media. This indicates that the forecast provides information that is significant to the public, and that the public utilizes details associated with it to inform aspects of their life. Phoenix, Arizona is a dry, desert region that experiences a monsoon season and extreme heat. How then, does the weather forecast influence the way Phoenix residents make decisions? This paper aims to draw connections between the weather forecast, decision making, and people who live in a desert environment. To do this, a ten-minute survey was deployed through Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) in which 379 respondents were targeted. The survey asks 45 multiple choice and ranking questions categorized into four sections: obtainment of the forecast, forecast variables of interest, informed decision making based on unique weather variables, and demographics. This research illuminates how residents in the Phoenix metropolitan area use the local weather forecast for decision-making on daily activities, and the main meteorological factors that drive those decisions.
ContributorsMarturano, Julia (Author) / Middel, Ariane (Thesis director) / Schneider, Florian (Committee member) / School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (Contributor, Contributor, Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
Description
Haiti has witnessed high deforestation rates in recent decades, caused largely by the fuel needs of a growing population. The resulting soil loss is estimated to have contributed towards a decline in agricultural productivity of 0.5% -1.2% per year since 1997. Recent studies show the potential of biochar use through pyrolysis technology to increase crop yields and improve soil health. However, the appropriateness of this technology in the context of Haiti remains unexplored. The three objectives of this research were to identify agricultural- and fuel-use-related needs and gaps in rural Haitian communities; determine the appropriateness of biochar pyrolyzer technology, used to convert agricultural biomass into a carbon-rich charcoal; and develop an action-oriented plan for use by development organizations, communities, and governmental institutions to increase the likelihood of adoption. Data were collected using participatory rural appraisal techniques involving 30 individual interviews and three focus-group discussions in the villages of Cinquantin and La Boule in the La Coupe region of central Haiti. Topics discussed include agricultural practices and assets, fuel use and needs, technology use and adoption, and social management practices. The Sustainable Livelihoods framework was used to examine the assets of households and the livelihood strategies being employed. Individual and focus group interviews were analyzed to identify specific needs and gaps. E.M. Rogers' Diffusion of Innovations theory was used to develop potential strategies for the introduction of pyrolysis technology. Preliminary results indicate biochar pyrolysis has potential to address agricultural and fuel needs in rural Haiti. Probable early adopters of biochar technology include households that have adopted new agricultural techniques in the past, and those with livestock. Education about biochar, and a variety of pyrolysis technology options from which villagers may select, are important factors in successful adoption of biochar use. A grain mill as an example in one of the study villages provides a model of ownership and use of pyrolysis technology that may increase its likelihood of successful adoption. Additionally, women represent a group that may be well suited to control a new local biochar enterprise, potentially benefiting the community.
ContributorsDelaney, Michael Ryan (Author) / Aggarwal, Rimjhim (Thesis advisor) / Chhetri, Nalini (Committee member) / Henderson, Mark (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
Rabies disease remains enzootic among raccoons, skunks, foxes and bats in the United States. It is of primary concern for public-health agencies to control spatial spread of rabies in wildlife and its potential spillover infection of domestic animals and humans. Rabies is invariably fatal in wildlife if untreated, with a non-negligible incubation period. Understanding how this latency affects spatial spread of rabies in wildlife is the concern of chapter 2 and 3. Chapter 1 deals with the background of mathematical models for rabies and lists main objectives. In chapter 2, a reaction-diffusion susceptible-exposed-infected (SEI) model and a delayed diffusive susceptible-infected (SI) model are constructed to describe the same epidemic process -- rabies spread in foxes. For the delayed diffusive model a non-local infection term with delay is resulted from modeling the dispersal during incubation stage. Comparison is made regarding minimum traveling wave speeds of the two models, which are verified using numerical experiments. In chapter 3, starting with two Kermack and McKendrick's models where infectivity, death rate and diffusion rate of infected individuals can depend on the age of infection, the asymptotic speed of spread $c^\ast$ for the cumulated force of infection can be analyzed. For the special case of fixed incubation period, the asymptotic speed of spread is governed by the same integral equation for both models. Although explicit solutions for $c^\ast$ are difficult to obtain, assuming that diffusion coefficient of incubating animals is small, $c^\ast$ can be estimated in terms of model parameter values. Chapter 4 considers the implementation of realistic landscape in simulation of rabies spread in skunks and bats in northeast Texas. The Finite Element Method (FEM) is adopted because the irregular shapes of realistic landscape naturally lead to unstructured grids in the spatial domain. This implementation leads to a more accurate description of skunk rabies cases distributions.
ContributorsLiu, Hao (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Jackiewicz, Zdzislaw (Committee member) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Committee member) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Thieme, Horst (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Descriptionnone
ContributorsZamil, Ruaa (Author) / Parmentier, Mary J (Thesis advisor) / Chhetri, Nalini (Committee member) / Grossman, Gary (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Bacteriophage (phage) are viruses that infect bacteria. Typical laboratory experiments show that in a chemostat containing phage and susceptible bacteria species, a mutant bacteria species will evolve. This mutant species is usually resistant to the phage infection and less competitive compared to the susceptible bacteria species. In some experiments, both susceptible and resistant bacteria species, as well as phage, can coexist at an equilibrium for hundreds of hours. The current research is inspired by these observations, and the goal is to establish a mathematical model and explore sufficient and necessary conditions for the coexistence. In this dissertation a model with infinite distributed delay terms based on some existing work is established. A rigorous analysis of the well-posedness of this model is provided, and it is proved that the susceptible bacteria persist. To study the persistence of phage species, a "Phage Reproduction Number" (PRN) is defined. The mathematical analysis shows phage persist if PRN > 1 and vanish if PRN < 1. A sufficient condition and a necessary condition for persistence of resistant bacteria are given. The persistence of the phage is essential for the persistence of resistant bacteria. Also, the resistant bacteria persist if its fitness is the same as the susceptible bacteria and if PRN > 1. A special case of the general model leads to a system of ordinary differential equations, for which numerical simulation results are presented.
ContributorsHan, Zhun (Author) / Smith, Hal (Thesis advisor) / Armbruster, Dieter (Committee member) / Kawski, Matthias (Committee member) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Thieme, Horst (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
In vertebrate outer retina, changes in the membrane potential of horizontal cells affect the calcium influx and glutamate release of cone photoreceptors via a negative feedback. This feedback has a number of important physiological consequences. One is called background-induced flicker enhancement (BIFE) in which the onset of dim background enhances the center flicker response of horizontal cells. The underlying mechanism for the feedback is still unclear but competing hypotheses have been proposed. One is the GABA hypothesis, which states that the feedback is mediated by gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA), an inhibitory neurotransmitter released from horizontal cells. Another is the ephaptic hypothesis, which contends that the feedback is non-GABAergic and is achieved through the modulation of electrical potential in the intersynaptic cleft between cones and horizontal cells. In this study, a continuum spine model of the cone-horizontal cell synaptic circuitry is formulated. This model, a partial differential equation system, incorporates both the GABA and ephaptic feedback mechanisms. Simulation results, in comparison with experiments, indicate that the ephaptic mechanism is necessary in order for the model to capture the major spatial and temporal dynamics of the BIFE effect. In addition, simulations indicate that the GABA mechanism may play some minor modulation role.
ContributorsChang, Shaojie (Author) / Baer, Steven M. (Thesis advisor) / Gardner, Carl L (Thesis advisor) / Crook, Sharon M (Committee member) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Ringhofer, Christian (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
A niche group of non-traditional sports have grown in popularity over the course of most of the last century but especially in the last few decades. Adventure sports provide alternative forms of physical activity typically involving elements of nature, speed, adrenaline, and physical risk. These sports often take place in remote locations, require specialized equipment, and receive limited exposure to those that are not participants. There are many factors that contribute to limited participation within adventure sports but their popularity has continued to grow. Participants frequently devote much of their time, effort, and money showing a true passion for their sport. A case study on water skiers was performed to learn more about adventure sports and their participants. A detailed description of competitive water skiing is included because the competition format is not widely known. It was found that there are a number of reasons why people competitively water ski. The main ones are the unique sensations it offers, the water ski community, and the environment in which it takes place. It is a tough sport to become involved because of the costs, time commitments, access to lakes, and lack of knowledgeable skiers willing to mentor beginners. Although for different reasons, all respondents seemed to truly love the sport. People participate in adventure sports because of the unique aspects and opportunities involved with sports of this nature. The second portion is a coaching guide on all three events, driving, and judging including video examples of all but very high difficulty tricks. These tips and advice have been derived from fifteen years of experience with competitive water skiing. There is no single way to water ski but this is what one skier has found to help at each stage of improvement. It could not have been accomplished without the unimaginable amount of support received from family, coaches, and friends. It is always better to be watched by a coach but that is not always possible. This guide will give skiers a starting point for what to think about to help them figure out how to continue to improve in all three events. With the necessary time, resources, ambition, and circumstances; a small group of people who know nothing about water skiing could learn to become high performance competitors. It will be left with Sun Devil Water Ski Club to help future skiers who do not always have another skier to help teach them.
ContributorsMechler, Mason Charles (Author) / Chhetri, Nalini (Thesis director) / Yesenski, Tara (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / Chemical Engineering Program (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
An investigation is undertaken of a prototype building-integrated solar photovoltaic-powered thermal storage system and air conditioning unit. The study verifies previous thermodynamic and economic conclusions and provides a more thorough analysis. A parameterized model was created for optimization of the system under various conditions. The model was used to evaluate energy and cost savings to determine viability of the system in several circumstances, such as a residence in Phoenix with typical cooling demand. The proposed design involves a modified chest freezer as a thermal storage tank with coils acting as the evaporator for the refrigeration cycle. Surrounding the coils, the tank contains small containers of water for high-density energy storage submerged in a low freezing-point solution of propylene glycol. The cooling power of excess photovoltaic and off-peak grid power that is generated by the air conditioning compressor is stored in the thermal storage tank by freezing the pure water. It is extracted by pumping the glycol across the ice containers and into an air handler to cool the building. Featured results of the modeling include the determination of an optimized system for a super-peak rate plan, grid-connected Phoenix house that has a 4-ton cooling load and requires a corresponding new air conditioner at 4.5 kW of power draw. Optimized for the highest payback over a ten year period, the system should consist of a thermal storage tank containing 454 liters (120 gallons) of water, a 3-ton rated air conditioning unit, requiring 2.7 kW, which is smaller than conventionally needed, and no solar photovoltaic array. The monthly summer savings would be $45.The upfront cost would be $5489, compared to a conventional system upfront cost of $5400, for a payback period of 0.33 years. Over ten years, this system will provide $2600 of savings. To optimize the system for the highest savings over a twenty year period, a thermal storage tank containing 272 liters (72 gallons) of water, a 40-m2 photovoltaic array with 15% efficiency, and a 3.5-ton, 3.1-kW rated air conditioning unit should be installed for an upfront cost of $19,900. This would provide monthly summer savings of $225 and 1062 kWh grid electricity, with a payback period of only 11 years and a total cost savings of $12,300 over twenty years. In comparison, a system with the same size photovoltaic array but without storage would result in a payback period of 16 years. Results are also determined for other cooling requirements and installation sizes, such that the viability of this type of system in different conditions can be discussed. The use of this model for determining the optimized system configuration given different constraints is also described.
ContributorsMagerman, Beth Francine (Author) / Phelan, Patrick (Thesis director) / Goodnick, Stephen (Committee member) / Chhetri, Nalini (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Program (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
In this research we consider stochastic models of Glioblastoma Multiforme brain tumors. We first look at a model by K. Swanson et al., which describes the dynamics as random diffusion plus deterministic logistic growth. We introduce a stochastic component in the logistic growth in the form of a random growth rate defined by a Poisson process. We show that this stochastic logistic growth model leads to a more accurate evaluation of the tumor growth compared its deterministic counterpart. We also discuss future plans to incorporate individual patient geometry, extend the model to three dimensions and to incorporate effects of different treatments into our model, in collaboration with a local hospital.
ContributorsManning, Michael Clare (Author) / Kostelich, Eric (Thesis director) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Letters and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2013-12
Description
This study investigates the impact of urban form and landscaping type on the mid-afternoon microclimate in semi-arid Phoenix, Arizona. The goal is to find effective urban form and design strategies to ameliorate temperatures during the summer months. We simulated near-ground air temperatures for typical residential neighborhoods in Phoenix using the three-dimensional microclimate model ENVI-met. The model was validated using weather observations from the North Desert Village (NDV) landscape experiment, located on the Arizona State University's Polytechnic campus. The NDV is an ideal site to determine the model's input parameters, since it is a controlled environment recreating three prevailing residential landscape types in the Phoenix metropolitan area (mesic, oasis, and xeric).
After validation, we designed five neighborhoods with different urban forms that represent a realistic cross-section of typical residential neighborhoods in Phoenix. The scenarios follow the Local Climate Zone (LCZ) classification scheme after Stewart and Oke. We then combined the neighborhoods with three landscape designs and, using ENVI-met, simulated microclimate conditions for these neighborhoods for a typical summer day. Results were analyzed in terms of mid-afternoon air temperature distribution and variation, ventilation, surface temperatures, and shading. Findings show that advection is important for the distribution of within-design temperatures and that spatial differences in cooling are strongly related to solar radiation and local shading patterns. In mid-afternoon, dense urban forms can create local cool islands. Our approach suggests that the LCZ concept is useful for planning and design purposes.
ContributorsMiddel, Ariane (Author) / Hab, Kathrin (Author) / Brazel, Anthony J. (Author) / Martin, Chris A. (Author) / Guhathakurta, Subhrajit (Author)
Created2013-12-01