Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program Administrative History

While the ecology and evolution of partial migratory systems (defined broadly to include skip spawning) have been well studied, we are only beginning to under- stand how partial migratory populations are responding to ongoing environmen- tal change. Environmental change can lead to differences in the fitness of residents and migrants, which could eventually lead to changes in the frequency of the strategies in the overall population. Here, we address questions concerning the life history of the endangered Gila cypha (humpback chub) in the regulated Colorado River and the unregulated tributary and primary spawning area, the Little Colorado River. We develop eight multistate models for the population based on three movement hypotheses, in which states are defined in terms of fish size classes and river locations. We fit these models to mark–recapture data col- lected in 2009–2012. We compare survival and growth estimates between the Col- orado River and Little Colorado River and calculate abundances for all size classes. The best model supports the hypotheses that larger adults spawn more frequently than smaller adults, that there are residents in the spawning grounds, and that juveniles move out of the Little Colorado River in large numbers during the monsoon season (July–September). Monthly survival rates for G. cypha in the Colorado River are higher than in the Little Colorado River in all size classes; however, growth is slower. While the hypothetical life histories of life-long resi- dents in the Little Colorado River and partial migrants spending most of its time in the Colorado River are very different, they lead to roughly similar fitness expectations when we used expected number of spawns as a proxy. However, more research is needed because our study period covers a period of years when conditions in the Colorado River for G. cypha are likely to have been better than has been typical over the last few decades.

ABSTRACT: The Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona, is part of an adaptive management programme which optimizes dam operations to improve various resources in the downstream ecosystem within Grand Canyon. Understanding how populations of federally endangered humpback chub Gila cypha respond to these dam operations is a high priority. Here, we test hypotheses concerning temporal variation in juvenile humpback chub apparent survival rates and abundance by comparing estimates between hydropeaking and steady discharge regimes over a 3-year period (July 2009–July 2012). The most supported model ignored flow type (steady vs hydropeaking) and estimated a declining trend in daily apparent survival rate across years (99.90%, 99.79% and 99.67% for 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively). Corresponding abundance of juvenile humpback chub increased temporally; open population model estimates ranged from 615 to 2802 individuals/km, and closed model estimates ranged from 94 to 1515 individuals/km. These changes in apparent survival and abundance may reflect broader trends, or simply represent inter-annual variation. Important findings include (i) juvenile humpback chub are currently surviving and recruiting in the mainstem Colorado River with increasing abundance; (ii) apparent survival does not benefit from steady fall discharges from Glen Canyon Dam; and (iii) direct assessment of demographic parameters for juvenile endangered fish are possible and can rapidly inform management actions in regulated rivers.

ABSTRACT: Recovery of imperiled fishes can be achieved through suppression of invasives, but outcomes may vary with environmental conditions. We studied the response of imperiled desert fishes to an invasive brown (Salmo trutta) and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) suppression program in a Colorado River tributary, with natural flow and longitudinal variation in thermal characteristics. We investigated trends in fish populations related to suppression and tested hypotheses about the impacts of salmonid densities, hydrologic variation, and spatial–thermal gradients on the distribution and abundance of native fish species using zero-inflated generalized linear mixed effects models. Between 2012 and 2018, salmonids declined 89%, and native fishes increased dramatically (∼480%) once trout suppression surpassed ∼60%. Temperature and trout density were consistently retained in the top models predicting the abundance and distribution of native fishes. The greatest increases occurred in warmer reaches and in years with spring flooding. Surprisingly, given the evolution of native fishes in disturbance-prone systems, intense, monsoon-driven flooding limited native fish recruitment. Applied concertedly, invasive species suppression and efforts to mimic natural flow and thermal regimes may allow rapid and widespread native fish recovery.

Vegetation changes in the canyon of the Colorado River between Glen Canyon Dam and Lake Mead were studied by comparing photo­ graphs taken prior to the completion of the Glen Canyon Dam in 1963 with those taken afterwards at the same sites. The old photo­ graphs, taken by J. K. Millers, T. H. O'Sullivan, William Bell, F. A. Nims, R. B. Stanton, N. W. Carkhuff, N. H. Darton, L. R. Freeman, E. C. LaRue, and others, document conditions as they were between 1872 and 1963. In general, the older pictures show an absence of riparian plants along the banks of the river. The new photographs of each pair were taken in 1972 through 1976. The most obvious vege­tation change revealed by the photograph comparison is the in­ creased density of many species. Exotic species, such as saltcedar and camelthorn, and native riparian plants, such as sandbar willow, arrowweed, desert broom, and cattail, now form a new riparian com­munity along much of the channel of the Colorado River between Glen Canyon Dam and the Grand Wash Cliffs.

The matched photographs also reveal that changes have occurred in the amount of sand and silt deposited along the banks. The photo­ graphs show that in some areas erosion has been significant since the time of the earlier photograph while at other locations sediment has accumulated on river bars and terraces. Detailed maps are presented showing distribution of 25 plant species. Some of these, such as Russian olive and elm, were unknown along the Grand Canyon reach of the Colorado River before 1976.

Relevant data are presented to show changes in the hydrologic regime since completion of Glen Canyon Dam. Flooding, as expressed by annual maximum stage, has decreased in amplitude, and its sea­ son of occurrence has changed from spring (May-June) to a longer period from April through October. Dam construction has had a moderating influence on several other hydrologic variables. Com­pared to the predam era, discharge through the year now varies within narrow limits, changing little from month to month or season to season; annual maximum discharges are now strikingly uniform, and sediment load has materially decreased. Increases have occurred in some characteristics, however, such as daily variation in river stage and median discharge.

The interaction of decreased flooding, decreased sediment load, and increased riparian plant coverage makes the future of existing river fans, bars, and terraces uncertain. The establishment of a new ecological equilibrium at the bottom of the Grand Canyon may re­ quire many decades.