Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program Administrative History

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and Argonne National Laboratory, completed a decision analysis to use in the evaluation of alternatives in the Environmental Impact Statement concerning the long-term management of water releases from Glen Canyon Dam and associated management activities. Two primary decision analysis methods, multicriteria decision analysis and the expected value of information, were used to evaluate the alternative strategies against the resource goals and to evaluate the influence of uncertainty.

A total of 18 performance metrics associated with 8 out of 12 resource goals (fundamental objectives) were developed by the Bureau of Reclamation and National Park Service in partnership with subject-matter teams composed of Federal, State, tribal, and private experts. A total of 19 long-term strategies associated with 7 alternatives were developed by the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, Argonne National Laboratory, U.S. Geological Survey, and Cooperating Agencies. The 19 long-term strategies were evaluated against the 18 performance metrics using a series of coupled simulation models, taking into account the effects of several important sources of uncertainty. A total of 27 Federal, State, tribal, and nongovernmental agencies were invited by the Assistant Secretary of Interior to participate in a swing-weighting exercise to understand the range of perspectives about how to place relative value on the resource goals and performance metrics; 14 of the 27 chose to participate. The results of the swing-weighting exercise were combined with the evaluation of the alternatives to complete a multicriteria decision analysis. The effects of uncertainty on the ranking of long-term strategies were evaluated through calculation of the value of information.

The alternatives and their long-term strategies differed across performance metrics, producing unavoidable tradeoffs; thus, there was no long-term strategy that was dominated by another across all performance metrics. When the performance of each alternative was weighted across performance metrics, three alternatives (B, D, and G) were top-ranked depending on the set of weights proposed: Alternative B was favored by those stakeholders that placed a high value on hydropower; Alternative G was favored by those stakeholders that placed a high value on the restoration of natural processes, like beachbuilding and natural vegetation; and Alternative D was favored by the remaining stakeholders. Surprisingly, these rankings were not sensitive to the critical uncertainties that were evaluated; that is, the choice of a preferred long-term strategy was sensitive to the value-based judgment about how to place relative weight on the resource goals but was not sensitive to the uncertainties in the system dynamics that were evaluated in this analysis. The one area of uncertainty that did slightly affect the ranking of alternatives was the long-term pattern of hydrological input; because of this sensitivity, some attention to the possible effects of climate change is warranted.

The results of the decision analysis are meant to serve as only one of many sources of information that can be used to evaluate the alternatives proposed in the Environmental Impact Statement. These results only focus on those resource goals for which quantitative performance metrics could be formulated and evaluated; there are other important aspects of the resource goals that also need to be considered. Not all the stakeholders who were invited to participate in the decision analysis chose to do so; thus, the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and U.S. Department of Interior may want to consider other input.

Vegetation changes in the canyon of the Colorado River between Glen Canyon Dam and Lake Mead were studied by comparing photo­ graphs taken prior to the completion of the Glen Canyon Dam in 1963 with those taken afterwards at the same sites. The old photo­ graphs, taken by J. K. Millers, T. H. O'Sullivan, William Bell, F. A. Nims, R. B. Stanton, N. W. Carkhuff, N. H. Darton, L. R. Freeman, E. C. LaRue, and others, document conditions as they were between 1872 and 1963. In general, the older pictures show an absence of riparian plants along the banks of the river. The new photographs of each pair were taken in 1972 through 1976. The most obvious vege­tation change revealed by the photograph comparison is the in­ creased density of many species. Exotic species, such as saltcedar and camelthorn, and native riparian plants, such as sandbar willow, arrowweed, desert broom, and cattail, now form a new riparian com­munity along much of the channel of the Colorado River between Glen Canyon Dam and the Grand Wash Cliffs.

The matched photographs also reveal that changes have occurred in the amount of sand and silt deposited along the banks. The photo­ graphs show that in some areas erosion has been significant since the time of the earlier photograph while at other locations sediment has accumulated on river bars and terraces. Detailed maps are presented showing distribution of 25 plant species. Some of these, such as Russian olive and elm, were unknown along the Grand Canyon reach of the Colorado River before 1976.

Relevant data are presented to show changes in the hydrologic regime since completion of Glen Canyon Dam. Flooding, as expressed by annual maximum stage, has decreased in amplitude, and its sea­ son of occurrence has changed from spring (May-June) to a longer period from April through October. Dam construction has had a moderating influence on several other hydrologic variables. Com­pared to the predam era, discharge through the year now varies within narrow limits, changing little from month to month or season to season; annual maximum discharges are now strikingly uniform, and sediment load has materially decreased. Increases have occurred in some characteristics, however, such as daily variation in river stage and median discharge.

The interaction of decreased flooding, decreased sediment load, and increased riparian plant coverage makes the future of existing river fans, bars, and terraces uncertain. The establishment of a new ecological equilibrium at the bottom of the Grand Canyon may re­ quire many decades.