Theses and Dissertations
This collection includes both ASU Theses and Dissertations, submitted by graduate students, and the Barrett, Honors College theses submitted by undergraduate students.
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- All Subjects: Applied Mathematics
Description
There has been important progress in understanding ecological dynamics through the development of the theory of ecological stoichiometry. This fast growing theory provides new constraints and mechanisms that can be formulated into mathematical models. Stoichiometric models incorporate the effects of both food quantity and food quality into a single framework that produce rich dynamics. While the effects of nutrient deficiency on consumer growth are well understood, recent discoveries in ecological stoichiometry suggest that consumer dynamics are not only affected by insufficient food nutrient content (low phosphorus (P): carbon (C) ratio) but also by excess food nutrient content (high P:C). This phenomenon, known as the stoichiometric knife edge, in which animal growth is reduced not only by food with low P content but also by food with high P content, needs to be incorporated into mathematical models. Here we present Lotka-Volterra type models to investigate the growth response of Daphnia to algae of varying P:C ratios. Using a nonsmooth system of two ordinary differential equations (ODEs), we formulate the first model to incorporate the phenomenon of the stoichiometric knife edge. We then extend this stoichiometric model by mechanistically deriving and tracking free P in the environment. This resulting full knife edge model is a nonsmooth system of three ODEs. Bifurcation analysis and numerical simulations of the full model, that explicitly tracks phosphorus, leads to quantitatively different predictions than previous models that neglect to track free nutrients. The full model shows that the grazer population is sensitive to excess nutrient concentrations as a dynamical free nutrient pool induces extreme grazer population density changes. These modeling efforts provide insight on the effects of excess nutrient content on grazer dynamics and deepen our understanding of the effects of stoichiometry on the mechanisms governing population dynamics and the interactions between trophic levels.
ContributorsPeace, Angela (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Elser, James J (Committee member) / Baer, Steven (Committee member) / Tang, Wenbo (Committee member) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) is any medical or public health procedure used before exposure to the disease causing agent, its purpose is to prevent, rather than treat or cure a disease. Most commonly, PrEP refers to an experimental HIV-prevention strategy that would use antiretrovirals to protect HIV-negative people from HIV infection. A deterministic mathematical model of HIV transmission is developed to evaluate the public-health impact of oral PrEP interventions, and to compare PrEP effectiveness with respect to different evaluation methods. The effects of demographic, behavioral, and epidemic parameters on the PrEP impact are studied in a multivariate sensitivity analysis. Most of the published models on HIV intervention impact assume that the number of individuals joining the sexually active population per year is constant or proportional to the total population. In the second part of this study, three models are presented and analyzed to study the PrEP intervention, with constant, linear, and logistic recruitment rates. How different demographic assumptions can affect the evaluation of PrEP is studied. When provided with data, often least square fitting or similar approaches can be used to determine a single set of approximated parameter values that make the model fit the data best. However, least square fitting only provides point estimates and does not provide information on how strongly the data supports these particular estimates. Therefore, in the third part of this study, Bayesian parameter estimation is applied on fitting ODE model to the related HIV data. Starting with a set of prior distributions for the parameters as initial guess, Bayes' formula can be applied to obtain a set of posterior distributions for the parameters which makes the model fit the observed data best. Evaluating the posterior distribution often requires the integration of high-dimensional functions, which is usually difficult to calculate numerically. Therefore, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is used to approximate the posterior distribution.
ContributorsZhao, Yuqin (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Taylor, Jesse (Committee member) / Armbruster, Dieter (Committee member) / Tang, Wenbo (Committee member) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Earth-system models describe the interacting components of the climate system and
technological systems that affect society, such as communication infrastructures. Data
assimilation addresses the challenge of state specification by incorporating system
observations into the model estimates. In this research, a particular data
assimilation technique called the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) is
applied to the ionosphere, which is a domain of practical interest due to its effects
on infrastructures that depend on satellite communication and remote sensing. This
dissertation consists of three main studies that propose strategies to improve space-
weather specification during ionospheric extreme events, but are generally applicable
to Earth-system models:
Topic I applies the LETKF to estimate ion density with an idealized model of
the ionosphere, given noisy synthetic observations of varying sparsity. Results show
that the LETKF yields accurate estimates of the ion density field and unobserved
components of neutral winds even when the observation density is spatially sparse
(2% of grid points) and there is large levels (40%) of Gaussian observation noise.
Topic II proposes a targeted observing strategy for data assimilation, which uses
the influence matrix diagnostic to target errors in chosen state variables. This
strategy is applied in observing system experiments, in which synthetic electron density
observations are assimilated with the LETKF into the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-
Electrodynamics Global Circulation Model (TIEGCM) during a geomagnetic storm.
Results show that assimilating targeted electron density observations yields on
average about 60%–80% reduction in electron density error within a 600 km radius of
the observed location, compared to 15% reduction obtained with randomly placed
vertical profiles.
Topic III proposes a methodology to account for systematic model bias arising
ifrom errors in parametrized solar and magnetospheric inputs. This strategy is ap-
plied with the TIEGCM during a geomagnetic storm, and is used to estimate the
spatiotemporal variations of bias in electron density predictions during the
transitionary phases of the geomagnetic storm. Results show that this strategy reduces
error in 1-hour predictions of electron density by about 35% and 30% in polar regions
during the main and relaxation phases of the geomagnetic storm, respectively.
technological systems that affect society, such as communication infrastructures. Data
assimilation addresses the challenge of state specification by incorporating system
observations into the model estimates. In this research, a particular data
assimilation technique called the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) is
applied to the ionosphere, which is a domain of practical interest due to its effects
on infrastructures that depend on satellite communication and remote sensing. This
dissertation consists of three main studies that propose strategies to improve space-
weather specification during ionospheric extreme events, but are generally applicable
to Earth-system models:
Topic I applies the LETKF to estimate ion density with an idealized model of
the ionosphere, given noisy synthetic observations of varying sparsity. Results show
that the LETKF yields accurate estimates of the ion density field and unobserved
components of neutral winds even when the observation density is spatially sparse
(2% of grid points) and there is large levels (40%) of Gaussian observation noise.
Topic II proposes a targeted observing strategy for data assimilation, which uses
the influence matrix diagnostic to target errors in chosen state variables. This
strategy is applied in observing system experiments, in which synthetic electron density
observations are assimilated with the LETKF into the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-
Electrodynamics Global Circulation Model (TIEGCM) during a geomagnetic storm.
Results show that assimilating targeted electron density observations yields on
average about 60%–80% reduction in electron density error within a 600 km radius of
the observed location, compared to 15% reduction obtained with randomly placed
vertical profiles.
Topic III proposes a methodology to account for systematic model bias arising
ifrom errors in parametrized solar and magnetospheric inputs. This strategy is ap-
plied with the TIEGCM during a geomagnetic storm, and is used to estimate the
spatiotemporal variations of bias in electron density predictions during the
transitionary phases of the geomagnetic storm. Results show that this strategy reduces
error in 1-hour predictions of electron density by about 35% and 30% in polar regions
during the main and relaxation phases of the geomagnetic storm, respectively.
ContributorsDurazo, Juan, Ph.D (Author) / Kostelich, Eric J. (Thesis advisor) / Mahalov, Alex (Thesis advisor) / Tang, Wenbo (Committee member) / Moustaoui, Mohamed (Committee member) / Platte, Rodrigo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
A continuously and stably stratified fluid contained in a square cavity subjected to harmonic body forcing is studied numerically by solving the Navier-Stokes equations under the Boussinesq approximation. Complex dynamics are observed near the onset of instability of the basic state, which is a flow configuration that is always an exact analytical solution of the governing equations. The instability of the basic state to perturbations is first studied with linear stability analysis (Floquet analysis), revealing a multitude of intersecting synchronous and subharmonic resonance tongues in parameter space. A modal reduction method for determining the locus of basic state instability is also shown, greatly simplifying the computational overhead normally required by a Floquet study. Then, a study of the nonlinear governing equations determines the criticality of the basic state's instability, and ultimately characterizes the dynamics of the lowest order spatial mode by the three discovered codimension-two bifurcation points within the resonance tongue. The rich dynamics include a homoclinic doubling cascade that resembles the logistic map and a multitude of gluing bifurcations.
The numerical techniques and methodologies are first demonstrated on a homogeneous fluid contained within a three-dimensional lid-driven cavity. The edge state technique and linear stability analysis through Arnoldi iteration are used to resolve the complex dynamics of the canonical shear-driven benchmark problem. The techniques here lead to a dynamical description of an instability mechanism, and the work serves as a basis for the remainder of the dissertation.
The numerical techniques and methodologies are first demonstrated on a homogeneous fluid contained within a three-dimensional lid-driven cavity. The edge state technique and linear stability analysis through Arnoldi iteration are used to resolve the complex dynamics of the canonical shear-driven benchmark problem. The techniques here lead to a dynamical description of an instability mechanism, and the work serves as a basis for the remainder of the dissertation.
ContributorsYalim, Jason (Author) / Welfert, Bruno D. (Thesis advisor) / Lopez, Juan M. (Thesis advisor) / Jones, Donald (Committee member) / Tang, Wenbo (Committee member) / Platte, Rodrigo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
The dynamics of a fluid flow inside 2D square and 3D cubic cavities
under various configurations were simulated and analyzed using a
spectral code I developed.
This code was validated against known studies in the 3D lid-driven
cavity. It was then used to explore the various dynamical behaviors
close to the onset of instability of the steady-state flow, and explain
in the process the mechanism underlying an intermittent bursting
previously observed. A fairly complete bifurcation picture emerged,
using a combination of computational tools such as selective
frequency damping, edge-state tracking and subspace restriction.
The code was then used to investigate the flow in a 2D square cavity
under stable temperature stratification, an idealized version of a lake
with warmer water at the surface compared to the bottom. The governing
equations are the Navier-Stokes equations under the Boussinesq approximation.
Simulations were done over a wide range of parameters of the problem quantifying
the driving velocity at the top (e.g. wind) and the strength of the stratification.
Particular attention was paid to the mechanisms associated with the onset of
instability of the base steady state, and the complex nontrivial dynamics
occurring beyond onset, where the presence of multiple states leads to a
rich spectrum of states, including homoclinic and heteroclinic chaos.
A third configuration investigates the flow dynamics of a fluid in a rapidly
rotating cube subjected to small amplitude modulations. The responses were
quantified by the global helicity and energy measures, and various peak
responses associated to resonances with intrinsic eigenmodes of the cavity
and/or internal retracing beams were clearly identified for the first time.
A novel approach to compute the eigenmodes is also described, making accessible
a whole catalog of these with various properties and dynamics. When the small
amplitude modulation does not align with the rotation axis (precession) we show
that a new set of eigenmodes are primarily excited as the angular velocity
increases, while triadic resonances may occur once the nonlinear regime kicks in.
under various configurations were simulated and analyzed using a
spectral code I developed.
This code was validated against known studies in the 3D lid-driven
cavity. It was then used to explore the various dynamical behaviors
close to the onset of instability of the steady-state flow, and explain
in the process the mechanism underlying an intermittent bursting
previously observed. A fairly complete bifurcation picture emerged,
using a combination of computational tools such as selective
frequency damping, edge-state tracking and subspace restriction.
The code was then used to investigate the flow in a 2D square cavity
under stable temperature stratification, an idealized version of a lake
with warmer water at the surface compared to the bottom. The governing
equations are the Navier-Stokes equations under the Boussinesq approximation.
Simulations were done over a wide range of parameters of the problem quantifying
the driving velocity at the top (e.g. wind) and the strength of the stratification.
Particular attention was paid to the mechanisms associated with the onset of
instability of the base steady state, and the complex nontrivial dynamics
occurring beyond onset, where the presence of multiple states leads to a
rich spectrum of states, including homoclinic and heteroclinic chaos.
A third configuration investigates the flow dynamics of a fluid in a rapidly
rotating cube subjected to small amplitude modulations. The responses were
quantified by the global helicity and energy measures, and various peak
responses associated to resonances with intrinsic eigenmodes of the cavity
and/or internal retracing beams were clearly identified for the first time.
A novel approach to compute the eigenmodes is also described, making accessible
a whole catalog of these with various properties and dynamics. When the small
amplitude modulation does not align with the rotation axis (precession) we show
that a new set of eigenmodes are primarily excited as the angular velocity
increases, while triadic resonances may occur once the nonlinear regime kicks in.
ContributorsWu, Ke (Author) / Lopez, Juan (Thesis advisor) / Welfert, Bruno (Thesis advisor) / Tang, Wenbo (Committee member) / Platte, Rodrigo (Committee member) / Herrmann, Marcus (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
Using a simple $SI$ infection model, I uncover the
overall dynamics of the system and how they depend on the incidence
function. I consider both an epidemic and endemic perspective of the
model, but in both cases, three classes of incidence
functions are identified.
In the epidemic form,
power incidences, where the infective portion $I^p$ has $p\in(0,1)$,
cause unconditional host extinction,
homogeneous incidences have host extinction for certain parameter constellations and
host survival for others, and upper density-dependent incidences
never cause host extinction. The case of non-extinction in upper
density-dependent
incidences extends to the case where a latent period is included.
Using data from experiments with rhanavirus and salamanders,
maximum likelihood estimates are applied to the data.
With these estimates,
I generate the corrected Akaike information criteria, which
reward a low likelihood and punish the use of more parameters.
This generates the Akaike weight, which is used to fit
parameters to the data, and determine which incidence functions
fit the data the best.
From an endemic perspective, I observe
that power incidences cause initial condition dependent host extinction for
some parameter constellations and global stability for others,
homogeneous incidences have host extinction for certain parameter constellations and
host survival for others, and upper density-dependent incidences
never cause host extinction.
The dynamics when the incidence function is homogeneous are deeply explored.
I expand the endemic considerations in the homogeneous case
by adding a predator into the model.
Using persistence theory, I show the conditions for the persistence of each of the
predator, prey, and parasite species. Potential dynamics of the system include parasite mediated
persistence of the predator, survival of the ecosystem at high initial predator levels and
ecosystem collapse at low initial predator levels, persistence of all three species, and much more.
overall dynamics of the system and how they depend on the incidence
function. I consider both an epidemic and endemic perspective of the
model, but in both cases, three classes of incidence
functions are identified.
In the epidemic form,
power incidences, where the infective portion $I^p$ has $p\in(0,1)$,
cause unconditional host extinction,
homogeneous incidences have host extinction for certain parameter constellations and
host survival for others, and upper density-dependent incidences
never cause host extinction. The case of non-extinction in upper
density-dependent
incidences extends to the case where a latent period is included.
Using data from experiments with rhanavirus and salamanders,
maximum likelihood estimates are applied to the data.
With these estimates,
I generate the corrected Akaike information criteria, which
reward a low likelihood and punish the use of more parameters.
This generates the Akaike weight, which is used to fit
parameters to the data, and determine which incidence functions
fit the data the best.
From an endemic perspective, I observe
that power incidences cause initial condition dependent host extinction for
some parameter constellations and global stability for others,
homogeneous incidences have host extinction for certain parameter constellations and
host survival for others, and upper density-dependent incidences
never cause host extinction.
The dynamics when the incidence function is homogeneous are deeply explored.
I expand the endemic considerations in the homogeneous case
by adding a predator into the model.
Using persistence theory, I show the conditions for the persistence of each of the
predator, prey, and parasite species. Potential dynamics of the system include parasite mediated
persistence of the predator, survival of the ecosystem at high initial predator levels and
ecosystem collapse at low initial predator levels, persistence of all three species, and much more.
ContributorsFarrell, Alexander E. (Author) / Thieme, Horst R (Thesis advisor) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Tang, Wenbo (Committee member) / Collins, James (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
The three-dimensional flow contained in a rapidly rotating circular
split cylinder is studied numerically solving the Navier--Stokes
equations. The cylinder is completely filled with fluid
and is split at the midplane. Three different types of boundary
conditions were imposed, leading to a variety of instabilities and
complex flow dynamics.
The first configuration has a strong background rotation and a small
differential rotation between the two halves. The axisymmetric flow
was first studied identifying boundary layer instabilities which
produce inertial waves under some conditions. Limit cycle states and
quasiperiodic states were found, including some period doubling
bifurcations. Then, a three-dimensional study was conducted
identifying low and high azimuthal wavenumber rotating waves due to
G’ortler and Tollmien–-Schlichting type instabilities. Over most of
the parameter space considered, quasiperiodic states were found where
both types of instabilities were present.
In the second configuration, both cylinder halves are in exact
counter-rotation, producing an O(2) symmetry in the system. The basic state flow dynamic
is dominated by the shear layer created
in the midplane. By changing the speed rotation and the aspect ratio
of the cylinder, the flow loses symmetries in a variety of ways
creating static waves, rotating waves, direction reversing waves and
slow-fast pulsing waves. The bifurcations, including infinite-period
bifurcations, were characterized and the flow dynamics was elucidated.
Additionally, preliminary experimental results for this case are
presented.
In the third set up, with oscillatory boundary conditions, inertial
wave beams were forced imposing a range of frequencies. These beams
emanate from the corner of the cylinder and from the split at the
midplane, leading to destructive/constructive interactions which
produce peaks in vorticity for some specific frequencies. These
frequencies are shown to be associated with the resonant Kelvin
modes. Furthermore, a study of the influence of imposing a phase
difference between the oscillations of the two halves of the cylinder
led to the interesting result that different Kelvin
modes can be excited depending on the phase difference.
split cylinder is studied numerically solving the Navier--Stokes
equations. The cylinder is completely filled with fluid
and is split at the midplane. Three different types of boundary
conditions were imposed, leading to a variety of instabilities and
complex flow dynamics.
The first configuration has a strong background rotation and a small
differential rotation between the two halves. The axisymmetric flow
was first studied identifying boundary layer instabilities which
produce inertial waves under some conditions. Limit cycle states and
quasiperiodic states were found, including some period doubling
bifurcations. Then, a three-dimensional study was conducted
identifying low and high azimuthal wavenumber rotating waves due to
G’ortler and Tollmien–-Schlichting type instabilities. Over most of
the parameter space considered, quasiperiodic states were found where
both types of instabilities were present.
In the second configuration, both cylinder halves are in exact
counter-rotation, producing an O(2) symmetry in the system. The basic state flow dynamic
is dominated by the shear layer created
in the midplane. By changing the speed rotation and the aspect ratio
of the cylinder, the flow loses symmetries in a variety of ways
creating static waves, rotating waves, direction reversing waves and
slow-fast pulsing waves. The bifurcations, including infinite-period
bifurcations, were characterized and the flow dynamics was elucidated.
Additionally, preliminary experimental results for this case are
presented.
In the third set up, with oscillatory boundary conditions, inertial
wave beams were forced imposing a range of frequencies. These beams
emanate from the corner of the cylinder and from the split at the
midplane, leading to destructive/constructive interactions which
produce peaks in vorticity for some specific frequencies. These
frequencies are shown to be associated with the resonant Kelvin
modes. Furthermore, a study of the influence of imposing a phase
difference between the oscillations of the two halves of the cylinder
led to the interesting result that different Kelvin
modes can be excited depending on the phase difference.
ContributorsGutierrez Castillo, Paloma (Author) / Lopez, Juan M. (Thesis advisor) / Herrmann, Marcus (Committee member) / Platte, Rodrigo (Committee member) / Welfert, Bruno (Committee member) / Tang, Wenbo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
This dissertation explores applications of machine learning methods in service of the design of screening tests, which are ubiquitous in applications from social work, to criminology, to healthcare. In the first part, a novel Bayesian decision theory framework is presented for designing tree-based adaptive tests. On an application to youth delinquency in Honduras, the method produces a 15-item instrument that is almost as accurate as a full-length 150+ item test. The framework includes specific considerations for the context in which the test will be administered, and provides uncertainty quantification around the trade-offs of shortening lengthy tests. In the second part, classification complexity is explored via theoretical and empirical results from statistical learning theory, information theory, and empirical data complexity measures. A simulation study that explicitly controls two key aspects of classification complexity is performed to relate the theoretical and empirical approaches. Throughout, a unified language and notation that formalizes classification complexity is developed; this same notation is used in subsequent chapters to discuss classification complexity in the context of a speech-based screening test. In the final part, the relative merits of task and feature engineering when designing a speech-based cognitive screening test are explored. Through an extensive classification analysis on a clinical speech dataset from patients with normal cognition and Alzheimer’s disease, the speech elicitation task is shown to have a large impact on test accuracy; carefully performed task and feature engineering are required for best results. A new framework for objectively quantifying speech elicitation tasks is introduced, and two methods are proposed for automatically extracting insights into the aspects of the speech elicitation task that are driving classification performance. The dissertation closes with recommendations for how to evaluate the obtained insights and use them to guide future design of speech-based screening tests.
ContributorsKrantsevich, Chelsea (Author) / Hahn, P. Richard (Thesis advisor) / Berisha, Visar (Committee member) / Lopes, Hedibert (Committee member) / Renaut, Rosemary (Committee member) / Zheng, Yi (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
Eigenvalues of the Gram matrix formed from received data frequently appear in sufficient detection statistics for multi-channel detection with Generalized Likelihood Ratio (GLRT) and Bayesian tests. In a frequently presented model for passive radar, in which the null hypothesis is that the channels are independent and contain only complex white Gaussian noise and the alternative hypothesis is that the channels contain a common rank-one signal in the mean, the GLRT statistic is the largest eigenvalue $\lambda_1$ of the Gram matrix formed from data. This Gram matrix has a Wishart distribution. Although exact expressions for the distribution of $\lambda_1$ are known under both hypotheses, numerically calculating values of these distribution functions presents difficulties in cases where the dimension of the data vectors is large. This dissertation presents tractable methods for computing the distribution of $\lambda_1$ under both the null and alternative hypotheses through a technique of expanding known expressions for the distribution of $\lambda_1$ as inner products of orthogonal polynomials. These newly presented expressions for the distribution allow for computation of detection thresholds and receiver operating characteristic curves to arbitrary precision in floating point arithmetic. This represents a significant advancement over the state of the art in a problem that could previously only be addressed by Monte Carlo methods.
ContributorsJones, Scott, Ph.D (Author) / Cochran, Douglas (Thesis advisor) / Berisha, Visar (Committee member) / Bliss, Daniel (Committee member) / Kosut, Oliver (Committee member) / Richmond, Christ (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019