Theses and Dissertations
This collection includes both ASU Theses and Dissertations, submitted by graduate students, and the Barrett, Honors College theses submitted by undergraduate students.
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Description
With the rapid development of mobile sensing technologies like GPS, RFID, sensors in smartphones, etc., capturing position data in the form of trajectories has become easy. Moving object trajectory analysis is a growing area of interest these days owing to its applications in various domains such as marketing, security, traffic monitoring and management, etc. To better understand movement behaviors from the raw mobility data, this doctoral work provides analytic models for analyzing trajectory data. As a first contribution, a model is developed to detect changes in trajectories with time. If the taxis moving in a city are viewed as sensors that provide real time information of the traffic in the city, a change in these trajectories with time can reveal that the road network has changed. To detect changes, trajectories are modeled with a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). A modified training algorithm, for parameter estimation in HMM, called m-BaumWelch, is used to develop likelihood estimates under assumed changes and used to detect changes in trajectory data with time. Data from vehicles are used to test the method for change detection. Secondly, sequential pattern mining is used to develop a model to detect changes in frequent patterns occurring in trajectory data. The aim is to answer two questions: Are the frequent patterns still frequent in the new data? If they are frequent, has the time interval distribution in the pattern changed? Two different approaches are considered for change detection, frequency-based approach and distribution-based approach. The methods are illustrated with vehicle trajectory data. Finally, a model is developed for clustering and outlier detection in semantic trajectories. A challenge with clustering semantic trajectories is that both numeric and categorical attributes are present. Another problem to be addressed while clustering is that trajectories can be of different lengths and also have missing values. A tree-based ensemble is used to address these problems. The approach is extended to outlier detection in semantic trajectories.
ContributorsKondaveeti, Anirudh (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Maciejewski, Ross (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
No-confounding designs (NC) in 16 runs for 6, 7, and 8 factors are non-regular fractional factorial designs that have been suggested as attractive alternatives to the regular minimum aberration resolution IV designs because they do not completely confound any two-factor interactions with each other. These designs allow for potential estimation of main effects and a few two-factor interactions without the need for follow-up experimentation. Analysis methods for non-regular designs is an area of ongoing research, because standard variable selection techniques such as stepwise regression may not always be the best approach. The current work investigates the use of the Dantzig selector for analyzing no-confounding designs. Through a series of examples it shows that this technique is very effective for identifying the set of active factors in no-confounding designs when there are three of four active main effects and up to two active two-factor interactions.
To evaluate the performance of Dantzig selector, a simulation study was conducted and the results based on the percentage of type II errors are analyzed. Also, another alternative for 6 factor NC design, called the Alternate No-confounding design in six factors is introduced in this study. The performance of this Alternate NC design in 6 factors is then evaluated by using Dantzig selector as an analysis method. Lastly, a section is dedicated to comparing the performance of NC-6 and Alternate NC-6 designs.
To evaluate the performance of Dantzig selector, a simulation study was conducted and the results based on the percentage of type II errors are analyzed. Also, another alternative for 6 factor NC design, called the Alternate No-confounding design in six factors is introduced in this study. The performance of this Alternate NC design in 6 factors is then evaluated by using Dantzig selector as an analysis method. Lastly, a section is dedicated to comparing the performance of NC-6 and Alternate NC-6 designs.
ContributorsKrishnamoorthy, Archana (Author) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Thesis advisor) / Borror, Connie (Thesis advisor) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
This dissertation transforms a set of system complexity reduction problems to feature selection problems. Three systems are considered: classification based on association rules, network structure learning, and time series classification. Furthermore, two variable importance measures are proposed to reduce the feature selection bias in tree models. Associative classifiers can achieve high accuracy, but the combination of many rules is difficult to interpret. Rule condition subset selection (RCSS) methods for associative classification are considered. RCSS aims to prune the rule conditions into a subset via feature selection. The subset then can be summarized into rule-based classifiers. Experiments show that classifiers after RCSS can substantially improve the classification interpretability without loss of accuracy. An ensemble feature selection method is proposed to learn Markov blankets for either discrete or continuous networks (without linear, Gaussian assumptions). The method is compared to a Bayesian local structure learning algorithm and to alternative feature selection methods in the causal structure learning problem. Feature selection is also used to enhance the interpretability of time series classification. Existing time series classification algorithms (such as nearest-neighbor with dynamic time warping measures) are accurate but difficult to interpret. This research leverages the time-ordering of the data to extract features, and generates an effective and efficient classifier referred to as a time series forest (TSF). The computational complexity of TSF is only linear in the length of time series, and interpretable features can be extracted. These features can be further reduced, and summarized for even better interpretability. Lastly, two variable importance measures are proposed to reduce the feature selection bias in tree-based ensemble models. It is well known that bias can occur when predictor attributes have different numbers of values. Two methods are proposed to solve the bias problem. One uses an out-of-bag sampling method called OOBForest, and the other, based on the new concept of a partial permutation test, is called a pForest. Experimental results show the existing methods are not always reliable for multi-valued predictors, while the proposed methods have advantages.
ContributorsDeng, Houtao (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Lohr, Sharon L (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Zhang, Muhong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
A good production schedule in a semiconductor back-end facility is critical for the on time delivery of customer orders. Compared to the front-end process that is dominated by re-entrant product flows, the back-end process is linear and therefore more suitable for scheduling. However, the production scheduling of the back-end process is still very difficult due to the wide product mix, large number of parallel machines, product family related setups, machine-product qualification, and weekly demand consisting of thousands of lots. In this research, a novel mixed-integer-linear-programming (MILP) model is proposed for the batch production scheduling of a semiconductor back-end facility. In the MILP formulation, the manufacturing process is modeled as a flexible flow line with bottleneck stages, unrelated parallel machines, product family related sequence-independent setups, and product-machine qualification considerations. However, this MILP formulation is difficult to solve for real size problem instances. In a semiconductor back-end facility, production scheduling usually needs to be done every day while considering updated demand forecast for a medium term planning horizon. Due to the limitation on the solvable size of the MILP model, a deterministic scheduling system (DSS), consisting of an optimizer and a scheduler, is proposed to provide sub-optimal solutions in a short time for real size problem instances. The optimizer generates a tentative production plan. Then the scheduler sequences each lot on each individual machine according to the tentative production plan and scheduling rules. Customized factory rules and additional resource constraints are included in the DSS, such as preventive maintenance schedule, setup crew availability, and carrier limitations. Small problem instances are randomly generated to compare the performances of the MILP model and the deterministic scheduling system. Then experimental design is applied to understand the behavior of the DSS and identify the best configuration of the DSS under different demand scenarios. Product-machine qualification decisions have long-term and significant impact on production scheduling. A robust product-machine qualification matrix is critical for meeting demand when demand quantity or mix varies. In the second part of this research, a stochastic mixed integer programming model is proposed to balance the tradeoff between current machine qualification costs and future backorder costs with uncertain demand. The L-shaped method and acceleration techniques are proposed to solve the stochastic model. Computational results are provided to compare the performance of different solution methods.
ContributorsFu, Mengying (Author) / Askin, Ronald G. (Thesis advisor) / Zhang, Muhong (Thesis advisor) / Fowler, John W (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Sen, Arunabha (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
In recent years, service oriented computing (SOC) has become a widely accepted paradigm for the development of distributed applications such as web services, grid computing and cloud computing systems. In service-based systems (SBS), multiple service requests with specific performance requirements make services compete for system resources. IT service providers need to allocate resources to services so the performance requirements of customers can be satisfied. Workload and performance models are required for efficient resource management and service performance assurance in SBS. This dissertation develops two methods to understand and model the cause-effect relations of service-related activities with resources workload and service performance. Part one presents an empirical method that requires the collection of system dynamics data and the application of statistical analyses. The results show that the method is capable to: 1) uncover the impacts of services on resource workload and service performance, 2) identify interaction effects of multiple services running concurrently, 3) gain insights about resource and performance tradeoffs of services, and 4) build service workload and performance models. In part two, the empirical method is used to investigate the impacts of services, security mechanisms and cyber attacks on resources workload and service performance. The information obtained is used to: 1) uncover interaction effects of services, security mechanisms and cyber attacks, 2) identify tradeoffs within limits of system resources, and 3) develop general/specific strategies for system survivability. Finally, part three presents a framework based on the usage profiles of services competing for resources and the resource-sharing schemes. The framework is used to: 1) uncover the impacts of service parameters (e.g. arrival distribution, execution time distribution, priority, workload intensity, scheduling algorithm) on workload and performance, and 2) build service workload and performance models at individual resources. The estimates obtained from service workload and performance models at individual resources can be aggregated to obtain overall estimates of services through multiple system resources. The workload and performance models of services obtained through both methods can be used for the efficient resource management and service performance assurance in SBS.
ContributorsMartinez Aranda, Billibaldo (Author) / Ye, Nong (Thesis advisor) / Wu, Tong (Committee member) / Sarjoughian, Hessam S. (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
This dissertation presents methods for the evaluation of ocular surface protection during natural blink function. The evaluation of ocular surface protection is especially important in the diagnosis of dry eye and the evaluation of dry eye severity in clinical trials. Dry eye is a highly prevalent disease affecting vast numbers (between 11% and 22%) of an aging population. There is only one approved therapy with limited efficacy, which results in a huge unmet need. The reason so few drugs have reached approval is a lack of a recognized therapeutic pathway with reproducible endpoints. While the interplay between blink function and ocular surface protection has long been recognized, all currently used evaluation techniques have addressed blink function in isolation from tear film stability, the gold standard of which is Tear Film Break-Up Time (TFBUT). In the first part of this research a manual technique of calculating ocular surface protection during natural blink function through the use of video analysis is developed and evaluated for it's ability to differentiate between dry eye and normal subjects, the results are compared with that of TFBUT. In the second part of this research the technique is improved in precision and automated through the use of video analysis algorithms. This software, called the OPI 2.0 System, is evaluated for accuracy and precision, and comparisons are made between the OPI 2.0 System and other currently recognized dry eye diagnostic techniques (e.g. TFBUT). In the third part of this research the OPI 2.0 System is deployed for use in the evaluation of subjects before, immediately after and 30 minutes after exposure to a controlled adverse environment (CAE), once again the results are compared and contrasted against commonly used dry eye endpoints. The results demonstrate that the evaluation of ocular surface protection using the OPI 2.0 System offers superior accuracy to the current standard, TFBUT.
ContributorsAbelson, Richard (Author) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Thesis advisor) / Borror, Connie (Committee member) / Shunk, Dan (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Temporal data are increasingly prevalent and important in analytics. Time series (TS) data are chronological sequences of observations and an important class of temporal data. Fields such as medicine, finance, learning science and multimedia naturally generate TS data. Each series provide a high-dimensional data vector that challenges the learning of the relevant patterns This dissertation proposes TS representations and methods for supervised TS analysis. The approaches combine new representations that handle translations and dilations of patterns with bag-of-features strategies and tree-based ensemble learning. This provides flexibility in handling time-warped patterns in a computationally efficient way. The ensemble learners provide a classification framework that can handle high-dimensional feature spaces, multiple classes and interaction between features. The proposed representations are useful for classification and interpretation of the TS data of varying complexity. The first contribution handles the problem of time warping with a feature-based approach. An interval selection and local feature extraction strategy is proposed to learn a bag-of-features representation. This is distinctly different from common similarity-based time warping. This allows for additional features (such as pattern location) to be easily integrated into the models. The learners have the capability to account for the temporal information through the recursive partitioning method. The second contribution focuses on the comprehensibility of the models. A new representation is integrated with local feature importance measures from tree-based ensembles, to diagnose and interpret time intervals that are important to the model. Multivariate time series (MTS) are especially challenging because the input consists of a collection of TS and both features within TS and interactions between TS can be important to models. Another contribution uses a different representation to produce computationally efficient strategies that learn a symbolic representation for MTS. Relationships between the multiple TS, nominal and missing values are handled with tree-based learners. Applications such as speech recognition, medical diagnosis and gesture recognition are used to illustrate the methods. Experimental results show that the TS representations and methods provide better results than competitive methods on a comprehensive collection of benchmark datasets. Moreover, the proposed approaches naturally provide solutions to similarity analysis, predictive pattern discovery and feature selection.
ContributorsBaydogan, Mustafa Gokce (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Atkinson, Robert (Committee member) / Gel, Esma (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Optimal experimental design for generalized linear models is often done using a pseudo-Bayesian approach that integrates the design criterion across a prior distribution on the parameter values. This approach ignores the lack of utility of certain models contained in the prior, and a case is demonstrated where the heavy focus on such hopeless models results in a design with poor performance and with wild swings in coverage probabilities for Wald-type confidence intervals. Design construction using a utility-based approach is shown to result in much more stable coverage probabilities in the area of greatest concern.
The pseudo-Bayesian approach can be applied to the problem of optimal design construction under dependent observations. Often, correlation between observations exists due to restrictions on randomization. Several techniques for optimal design construction are proposed in the case of the conditional response distribution being a natural exponential family member but with a normally distributed block effect . The reviewed pseudo-Bayesian approach is compared to an approach based on substituting the marginal likelihood with the joint likelihood and an approach based on projections of the score function (often called quasi-likelihood). These approaches are compared for several models with normal, Poisson, and binomial conditional response distributions via the true determinant of the expected Fisher information matrix where the dispersion of the random blocks is considered a nuisance parameter. A case study using the developed methods is performed.
The joint and quasi-likelihood methods are then extended to address the case when the magnitude of random block dispersion is of concern. Again, a simulation study over several models is performed, followed by a case study when the conditional response distribution is a Poisson distribution.
The pseudo-Bayesian approach can be applied to the problem of optimal design construction under dependent observations. Often, correlation between observations exists due to restrictions on randomization. Several techniques for optimal design construction are proposed in the case of the conditional response distribution being a natural exponential family member but with a normally distributed block effect . The reviewed pseudo-Bayesian approach is compared to an approach based on substituting the marginal likelihood with the joint likelihood and an approach based on projections of the score function (often called quasi-likelihood). These approaches are compared for several models with normal, Poisson, and binomial conditional response distributions via the true determinant of the expected Fisher information matrix where the dispersion of the random blocks is considered a nuisance parameter. A case study using the developed methods is performed.
The joint and quasi-likelihood methods are then extended to address the case when the magnitude of random block dispersion is of concern. Again, a simulation study over several models is performed, followed by a case study when the conditional response distribution is a Poisson distribution.
ContributorsHassler, Edgar (Author) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Thesis advisor) / Silvestrini, Rachel T. (Thesis advisor) / Borror, Connie M. (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
This thesis presents a successful application of operations research techniques in nonprofit distribution system to improve the distribution efficiency and increase customer service quality. It focuses on truck routing problems faced by St. Mary’s Food Bank Distribution Center. This problem is modeled as a capacitated vehicle routing problem to improve the distribution efficiency and is extended to capacitated vehicle routing problem with time windows to increase customer service quality. Several heuristics are applied to solve these vehicle routing problems and tested in well-known benchmark problems. Algorithms are tested by comparing the results with the plan currently used by St. Mary’s Food Bank Distribution Center. The results suggest heuristics are quite completive: average 17% less trucks and 28.52% less travel time are used in heuristics’ solution.
ContributorsLi, Xiaoyan (Author) / Askin, Ronald (Thesis advisor) / Wu, Teresa (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Project portfolio selection (PPS) is a significant problem faced by most organizations. How to best select the many innovative ideas that a company has developed to deploy in a proper and sustained manner with a balanced allocation of its resources over multiple time periods is one of vital importance to a company's goals. This dissertation details the steps involved in deploying a more intuitive portfolio selection framework that facilitates bringing analysts and management to a consensus on ongoing company efforts and buy into final decisions. A binary integer programming selection model that constructs an efficient frontier allows the evaluation of portfolios on many different criteria and allows decision makers (DM) to bring their experience and insight to the table when making a decision is discussed. A binary fractional integer program provides additional choices by optimizing portfolios on cost-benefit ratios over multiple time periods is also presented. By combining this framework with an `elimination by aspects' model of decision making, DMs evaluate portfolios on various objectives and ensure the selection of a portfolio most in line with their goals. By presenting a modeling framework to easily model a large number of project inter-dependencies and an evolutionary algorithm that is intelligently guided in the search for attractive portfolios by a beam search heuristic, practitioners are given a ready recipe to solve big problem instances to generate attractive project portfolios for their organizations. Finally, this dissertation attempts to address the problem of risk and uncertainty in project portfolio selection. After exploring the selection of portfolios based on trade-offs between a primary benefit and a primary cost, the third important dimension of uncertainty of outcome and the risk a decision maker is willing to take on in their quest to select the best portfolio for their organization is examined.
ContributorsSampath, Siddhartha (Author) / Gel, Esma (Thesis advisor) / Fowler, Jown W (Thesis advisor) / Kempf, Karl G. (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Sefair, Jorge (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018