Theses and Dissertations
This collection includes both ASU Theses and Dissertations, submitted by graduate students, and the Barrett, Honors College theses submitted by undergraduate students.
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- All Subjects: Statistics
Description
The widespread use of statistical analysis in sports-particularly Baseball- has made it increasingly necessary for small and mid-market teams to find ways to maintain their analytical advantages over large market clubs. In baseball, an opportunity for exists for teams with limited financial resources to sign players under team control to long-term contracts before other teams can bid for their services in free agency. If small and mid-market clubs can successfully identify talented players early, clubs can save money, achieve cost certainty and remain competitive for longer periods of time. These deals are also advantageous to players since they receive job security and greater financial dividends earlier in their career. The objective of this paper is to develop a regression-based predictive model that teams can use to forecast the performance of young baseball players with limited Major League experience. There were several tasks conducted to achieve this goal: (1) Data was obtained from Major League Baseball and Lahman's Baseball Database and sorted using Excel macros for easier analysis. (2) Players were separated into three positional groups depending on similar fielding requirements and offensive profiles: Group I was comprised of first and third basemen, Group II contains second basemen, shortstops, and center fielders and Group III contains left and right fielders. (3) Based on the context of baseball and the nature of offensive performance metrics, only players who achieve greater than 200 plate appearances within the first two years of their major league debut are included in this analysis. (4) The statistical software package JMP was used to create regression models of each group and analyze the residuals for any irregularities or normality violations. Once the models were developed, slight adjustments were made to improve the accuracy of the forecasts and identify opportunities for future work. It was discovered that Group I and Group III were the easiest player groupings to forecast while Group II required several attempts to improve the model.
ContributorsJack, Nathan Scott (Author) / Shunk, Dan (Thesis director) / Montgomery, Douglas (Committee member) / Borror, Connie (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
Woodland/Alloy Casting, Inc. is an aluminum foundry known for providing high-quality molds to their customers in industries such as aviation, electrical, defense, and nuclear power. However, as the company has grown larger during the past three years, they have begun to struggle with the on-time delivery of their orders. Woodland prides itself on their high-grade process that includes core processing, the molding process, cleaning process, and heat-treat process. To create each mold, it has to flow through each part of the system flawlessly. Throughout this process, significant bottlenecks occur that limit the number of molds leaving the system. To combat this issue, this project uses a simulation of the foundry to test how best to schedule their work to optimize the use of their resources. Simulation can be an effective tool when testing for improvements in systems where making changes to the physical system is too expensive. ARENA is a simulation tool that allows for manipulation of resources and process while also allowing both random and selected schedules to be run through the foundry’s production process. By using an ARENA simulation to test different scheduling techniques, the risk of missing production runs is minimized during the experimental period so that many different options can be tested to see how they will affect the production line. In this project, several feasible scheduling techniques are compared in simulation to determine which schedules allow for the highest number of molds to be completed.
ContributorsAdams, Danielle Renee (Author) / Pavlic, Theodore (Thesis director) / Montgomery, Douglas (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems & Operations Engineering Prgm (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
This dissertation centers on the development of Bayesian methods for learning differ- ent types of variation in switching nonlinear gene regulatory networks (GRNs). A new nonlinear and dynamic multivariate GRN model is introduced to account for different sources of variability in GRNs. The new model is aimed at more precisely capturing the complexity of GRN interactions through the introduction of time-varying kinetic order parameters, while allowing for variability in multiple model parameters. This model is used as the drift function in the development of several stochastic GRN mod- els based on Langevin dynamics. Six models are introduced which capture intrinsic and extrinsic noise in GRNs, thereby providing a full characterization of a stochastic regulatory system. A Bayesian hierarchical approach is developed for learning the Langevin model which best describes the noise dynamics at each time step. The trajectory of the state, which are the gene expression values, as well as the indicator corresponding to the correct noise model are estimated via sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) with a high degree of accuracy. To address the problem of time-varying regulatory interactions, a Bayesian hierarchical model is introduced for learning variation in switching GRN architectures with unknown measurement noise covariance. The trajectory of the state and the indicator corresponding to the network configuration at each time point are estimated using SMC. This work is extended to a fully Bayesian hierarchical model to account for uncertainty in the process noise covariance associated with each network architecture. An SMC algorithm with local Gibbs sampling is developed to estimate the trajectory of the state and the indicator correspond- ing to the network configuration at each time point with a high degree of accuracy. The results demonstrate the efficacy of Bayesian methods for learning information in switching nonlinear GRNs.
ContributorsVélez-Cruz, Nayely (Author) / Papandreou-Suppappola, Antonia (Thesis advisor) / Moraffah, Bahman (Committee member) / Tepedelenlioğlu, Cihan (Committee member) / Berisha, Visar (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
Linear-regression estimators have become widely accepted as a reliable statistical tool in predicting outcomes. Because linear regression is a long-established procedure, the properties of linear-regression estimators are well understood and can be trained very quickly. Many estimators exist for modeling linear relationships, each having ideal conditions for optimal performance. The differences stem from the introduction of a bias into the parameter estimation through the use of various regularization strategies. One of the more popular ones is ridge regression which uses ℓ2-penalization of the parameter vector. In this work, the proposed graph regularized linear estimator is pitted against the popular ridge regression when the parameter vector is known to be dense. When additional knowledge that parameters are smooth with respect to a graph is available, it can be used to improve the parameter estimates. To achieve this goal an additional smoothing penalty is introduced into the traditional loss function of ridge regression. The mean squared error(m.s.e) is used as a performance metric and the analysis is presented for fixed design matrices having a unit covariance matrix. The specific problem setup enables us to study the theoretical conditions where the graph regularized estimator out-performs the ridge estimator. The eigenvectors of the laplacian matrix indicating the graph of connections between the various dimensions of the parameter vector form an integral part of the analysis. Experiments have been conducted on simulated data to compare the performance of the two estimators for laplacian matrices of several types of graphs – complete, star, line and 4-regular. The experimental results indicate that the theory can possibly be extended to more general settings taking smoothness, a concept defined in this work, into consideration.
ContributorsSajja, Akarshan (Author) / Dasarathy, Gautam (Thesis advisor) / Berisha, Visar (Committee member) / Yang, Yingzhen (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
This dissertation explores applications of machine learning methods in service of the design of screening tests, which are ubiquitous in applications from social work, to criminology, to healthcare. In the first part, a novel Bayesian decision theory framework is presented for designing tree-based adaptive tests. On an application to youth delinquency in Honduras, the method produces a 15-item instrument that is almost as accurate as a full-length 150+ item test. The framework includes specific considerations for the context in which the test will be administered, and provides uncertainty quantification around the trade-offs of shortening lengthy tests. In the second part, classification complexity is explored via theoretical and empirical results from statistical learning theory, information theory, and empirical data complexity measures. A simulation study that explicitly controls two key aspects of classification complexity is performed to relate the theoretical and empirical approaches. Throughout, a unified language and notation that formalizes classification complexity is developed; this same notation is used in subsequent chapters to discuss classification complexity in the context of a speech-based screening test. In the final part, the relative merits of task and feature engineering when designing a speech-based cognitive screening test are explored. Through an extensive classification analysis on a clinical speech dataset from patients with normal cognition and Alzheimer’s disease, the speech elicitation task is shown to have a large impact on test accuracy; carefully performed task and feature engineering are required for best results. A new framework for objectively quantifying speech elicitation tasks is introduced, and two methods are proposed for automatically extracting insights into the aspects of the speech elicitation task that are driving classification performance. The dissertation closes with recommendations for how to evaluate the obtained insights and use them to guide future design of speech-based screening tests.
ContributorsKrantsevich, Chelsea (Author) / Hahn, P. Richard (Thesis advisor) / Berisha, Visar (Committee member) / Lopes, Hedibert (Committee member) / Renaut, Rosemary (Committee member) / Zheng, Yi (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
Eigenvalues of the Gram matrix formed from received data frequently appear in sufficient detection statistics for multi-channel detection with Generalized Likelihood Ratio (GLRT) and Bayesian tests. In a frequently presented model for passive radar, in which the null hypothesis is that the channels are independent and contain only complex white Gaussian noise and the alternative hypothesis is that the channels contain a common rank-one signal in the mean, the GLRT statistic is the largest eigenvalue $\lambda_1$ of the Gram matrix formed from data. This Gram matrix has a Wishart distribution. Although exact expressions for the distribution of $\lambda_1$ are known under both hypotheses, numerically calculating values of these distribution functions presents difficulties in cases where the dimension of the data vectors is large. This dissertation presents tractable methods for computing the distribution of $\lambda_1$ under both the null and alternative hypotheses through a technique of expanding known expressions for the distribution of $\lambda_1$ as inner products of orthogonal polynomials. These newly presented expressions for the distribution allow for computation of detection thresholds and receiver operating characteristic curves to arbitrary precision in floating point arithmetic. This represents a significant advancement over the state of the art in a problem that could previously only be addressed by Monte Carlo methods.
ContributorsJones, Scott, Ph.D (Author) / Cochran, Douglas (Thesis advisor) / Berisha, Visar (Committee member) / Bliss, Daniel (Committee member) / Kosut, Oliver (Committee member) / Richmond, Christ (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
Complex systems appear when interaction among system components creates emergent behavior that is difficult to be predicted from component properties. The growth of Internet of Things (IoT) and embedded technology has increased complexity across several sectors (e.g., automotive, aerospace, agriculture, city infrastructures, home technologies, healthcare) where the paradigm of cyber-physical systems (CPSs) has become a standard. While CPS enables unprecedented capabilities, it raises new challenges in system design, certification, control, and verification. When optimizing system performance computationally expensive simulation tools are often required, and search algorithms that sequentially interrogate a simulator to learn promising solutions are in great demand. This class of algorithms are black-box optimization techniques. However, the generality that makes black-box optimization desirable also causes computational efficiency difficulties when applied real problems. This thesis focuses on Bayesian optimization, a prominent black-box optimization family, and proposes new principles, translated in implementable algorithms, to scale Bayesian optimization to highly expensive, large scale problems. Four problem contexts are studied and approaches are proposed for practically applying Bayesian optimization concepts, namely: (1) increasing sample efficiency of a highly expensive simulator in the presence of other sources of information, where multi-fidelity optimization is used to leverage complementary information sources; (2) accelerating global optimization in the presence of local searches by avoiding over-exploitation with adaptive restart behavior; (3) scaling optimization to high dimensional input spaces by integrating Game theoretic mechanisms with traditional techniques; (4) accelerating optimization by embedding function structure when the reward function is a minimum of several functions. In the first context this thesis produces two multi-fidelity algorithms, a sample driven and model driven approach, and is implemented to optimize a serial production line; in the second context the Stochastic Optimization with Adaptive Restart (SOAR) framework is produced and analyzed with multiple applications to CPS falsification problems; in the third context the Bayesian optimization with sample fictitious play (BOFiP) algorithm is developed with an implementation in high-dimensional neural network training; in the last problem context the minimum surrogate optimization (MSO) framework is produced and combined with both Bayesian optimization and the SOAR framework with applications in simultaneous falsification of multiple CPS requirements.
ContributorsMathesen, Logan (Author) / Pedrielli, Giulia (Thesis advisor) / Candan, Kasim (Committee member) / Fainekos, Georgios (Committee member) / Gel, Esma (Committee member) / Montgomery, Douglas (Committee member) / Zabinsky, Zelda (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021