Theses and Dissertations
This collection includes both ASU Theses and Dissertations, submitted by graduate students, and the Barrett, Honors College theses submitted by undergraduate students.
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Description
The main objective of this research is to develop an integrated method to study emergent behavior and consequences of evolution and adaptation in engineered complex adaptive systems (ECASs). A multi-layer conceptual framework and modeling approach including behavioral and structural aspects is provided to describe the structure of a class of engineered complex systems and predict their future adaptive patterns. The approach allows the examination of complexity in the structure and the behavior of components as a result of their connections and in relation to their environment. This research describes and uses the major differences of natural complex adaptive systems (CASs) with artificial/engineered CASs to build a framework and platform for ECAS. While this framework focuses on the critical factors of an engineered system, it also enables one to synthetically employ engineering and mathematical models to analyze and measure complexity in such systems. In this way concepts of complex systems science are adapted to management science and system of systems engineering. In particular an integrated consumer-based optimization and agent-based modeling (ABM) platform is presented that enables managers to predict and partially control patterns of behaviors in ECASs. Demonstrated on the U.S. electricity markets, ABM is integrated with normative and subjective decision behavior recommended by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The approach integrates social networks, social science, complexity theory, and diffusion theory. Furthermore, it has unique and significant contribution in exploring and representing concrete managerial insights for ECASs and offering new optimized actions and modeling paradigms in agent-based simulation.
ContributorsHaghnevis, Moeed (Author) / Askin, Ronald G. (Thesis advisor) / Armbruster, Dieter (Thesis advisor) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Wu, Tong (Committee member) / Hedman, Kory (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Ionizing radiation used in the patient diagnosis or therapy has negative effects on the patient body in short term and long term depending on the amount of exposure. More than 700,000 examinations are everyday performed on Interventional Radiology modalities [1], however; there is no patient-centric information available to the patient or the Quality Assurance for the amount of organ dose received. In this study, we are exploring the methodologies to systematically reduce the absorbed radiation dose in the Fluoroscopically Guided Interventional Radiology procedures. In the first part of this study, we developed a mathematical model which determines a set of geometry settings for the equipment and a level for the energy during a patient exam. The goal is to minimize the amount of absorbed dose in the critical organs while maintaining image quality required for the diagnosis. The model is a large-scale mixed integer program. We performed polyhedral analysis and derived several sets of strong inequalities to improve the computational speed and quality of the solution. Results present the amount of absorbed dose in the critical organ can be reduced up to 99% for a specific set of angles. In the second part, we apply an approximate gradient method to simultaneously optimize angle and table location while minimizing dose in the critical organs with respect to the image quality. In each iteration, we solve a sub-problem as a MIP to determine the radiation field size and corresponding X-ray tube energy. In the computational experiments, results show further reduction (up to 80%) of the absorbed dose in compare with previous method. Last, there are uncertainties in the medical procedures resulting imprecision of the absorbed dose. We propose a robust formulation to hedge from the worst case absorbed dose while ensuring feasibility. In this part, we investigate a robust approach for the organ motions within a radiology procedure. We minimize the absorbed dose for the critical organs across all input data scenarios which are corresponding to the positioning and size of the organs. The computational results indicate up to 26% increase in the absorbed dose calculated for the robust approach which ensures the feasibility across scenarios.
ContributorsKhodadadegan, Yasaman (Author) / Zhang, Muhong (Thesis advisor) / Pavlicek, William (Thesis advisor) / Fowler, John (Committee member) / Wu, Tong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Modified and artificial water sources can be used as a management tool for game and non-game wildlife species. State, federal, and private agencies allocate significant resources to install and maintain artificial water sources (AWS) annually. Capture mark recapture methods were used to sample small mammal communities in the vicinity of five AWS and five paired control sites (treatments) in the surrounding Sonoran desert from October 2011 to May 2012. I measured plant species richness, density, and percent cover in the spring of 2012. A Multi-response Permutation Procedure was used to identify differences in small mammal community abundance, biomass, and species richness by season and treatment. I used Principle Component Analysis to reduce 11 habitat characteristics to five habitat factors. I related rodent occurrence to habitat characteristics using multiple and logistic regression. A total of 370 individual mammals representing three genera and eight species of rodents were captured across 4800 trap nights. Desert pocket mouse (Chaetodipus penicillatus) was the most common species in both seasons and treatments. Whereas rodent community abundance, biomass, and richness were similar between seasons, community variables of AWS were greater than CS. Rodent diversity was similar between treatments. Desert pocket mouse abundance and biomass were twice as high at AWS when compared to controls. Biomass of white-throated woodrat (Neotoma albigula) was five times greater at AWS. Habitat characteristics were similar between treatments. Neither presence of water nor distance to water explained substantial habitat variation. Occurrence of rodent species was associated with habitat characteristics. Desert rodent communities are adapted for arid environments (i.e. Heteromyids) and are not dependent on "free water". Higher abundances of desert pocket mouse at AWS were most likely related to increased disturbance and debris and not the presence of water. The results of this study and previous studies suggest that more investigation is needed and that short term studies may not be able to detect interactions (if any) between AWS and desert small mammal communities.
ContributorsSwitalski, Aaron (Author) / Bateman, Heather L (Thesis advisor) / Miller, William (Committee member) / Alford, Eddie (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Niche variation among sexes and life stages within a population has been documented in many species, yet few studies have investigated niche variation within demographic groups or across ecological contexts. We examined the extent to which pregnant California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) at each of three breeding colonies target alternative prey resources and habitats. The three colonies are distributed across distinct regions of the Gulf of California, Mexico and have divergent population dynamics. We compared the nature of niche variation among colonies and investigated the fitness consequences of different foraging strategies within each colony. We analyzed the δ13C and δ15N values from fur collected from 206 suckling pups to characterize relative maternal foraging locations (δ13C) and trophic levels (δ15N) during the metabolically demanding late stages of gestation and lactation that occur simultaneously in California sea lions. The δ13C and δ15N values were regressed against pup body condition index values to compare the relative individual-level fitness benefits of different maternal foraging strategies. We found that the nature and extent of niche variation differed among colonies. Niche variation was most pronounced at the two largest colonies that appear to experience the highest levels of intraspecific competition and the variation was consistent with habitat features. One colony (Granito) displayed two distinct foraging groups with indistinguishable median pup body condition values, whereas the second (San Jorge) exhibited continuous niche variation and pup body condition varied in relation to maternal foraging location and trophic level, suggesting disparities among alternative foraging strategies. For the smallest colony (Los Islotes), females occupy similar niches with a few outliers. Body condition values of pups at this colony were most variable, but did not vary with maternal foraging strategy. Our results provide evidence for intrapopulation niche variation among demographically similar individuals during a period of high metabolic stress and reproductive importance. This work suggests possible fitness benefits conferred by alternative foraging strategies, and calls into question the common assumption that members of a population are ecologically equivalent. Future research aimed at understanding animal foraging strategies should consider the nature and extent of niche variation in the context of local ecological conditions.
ContributorsCrawford, Tara Gancos (Author) / Gerber, Leah R. (Thesis advisor) / Ogle, Kiona (Committee member) / Kurle, Carolyn M (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Nowadays product reliability becomes the top concern of the manufacturers and customers always prefer the products with good performances under long period. In order to estimate the lifetime of the product, accelerated life testing (ALT) is introduced because most of the products can last years even decades. Much research has been done in the ALT area and optimal design for ALT is a major topic. This dissertation consists of three main studies. First, a methodology of finding optimal design for ALT with right censoring and interval censoring have been developed and it employs the proportional hazard (PH) model and generalized linear model (GLM) to simplify the computational process. A sensitivity study is also given to show the effects brought by parameters to the designs. Second, an extended version of I-optimal design for ALT is discussed and then a dual-objective design criterion is defined and showed with several examples. Also in order to evaluate different candidate designs, several graphical tools are developed. Finally, when there are more than one models available, different model checking designs are discussed.
ContributorsYang, Tao (Author) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Borror, Connie (Committee member) / Rigdon, Steve (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Nonregular screening designs can be an economical alternative to traditional resolution IV 2^(k-p) fractional factorials. Recently 16-run nonregular designs, referred to as no-confounding designs, were introduced in the literature. These designs have the property that no pair of main effect (ME) and two-factor interaction (2FI) estimates are completely confounded. In this dissertation, orthogonal arrays were evaluated with many popular design-ranking criteria in order to identify optimal 20-run and 24-run no-confounding designs. Monte Carlo simulation was used to empirically assess the model fitting effectiveness of the recommended no-confounding designs. The results of the simulation demonstrated that these new designs, particularly the 24-run designs, are successful at detecting active effects over 95% of the time given sufficient model effect sparsity. The final chapter presents a screening design selection methodology, based on decision trees, to aid in the selection of a screening design from a list of published options. The methodology determines which of a candidate set of screening designs has the lowest expected experimental cost.
ContributorsStone, Brian (Author) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Thesis advisor) / Silvestrini, Rachel T. (Committee member) / Fowler, John W (Committee member) / Borror, Connie M. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Human activity has increased loading of reactive nitrogen (N) in the environment, with important and often deleterious impacts on biodiversity, climate, and human health. Since the fate of N in the ecosystem is mainly controlled by microorganisms, understanding the factors that shape microbial communities becomes relevant and urgent. In arid land soils, these microbial communities and factors are not well understood. I aimed to study the role of N cycling microbes, such as the ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB), the recently discovered ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA), and various fungal groups, in soils of arid lands. I also tested if niche differentiation among microbial populations is a driver of differential biogeochemical outcomes. I found that N cycling microbial communities in arid lands are structured by environmental factors to a stronger degree than what is generally observed in mesic systems. For example, in biological soil crusts, temperature selected for AOA in warmer deserts and for AOB in colder deserts. Land-use change also affects niche differentiation, with fungi being the major agents of N2O production in natural arid lands, whereas emissions could be attributed to bacteria in mesic urban lawns. By contrast, NO3- production in the native desert and managed soils was mainly controlled by autotrophic microbes (i.e., AOB and AOA) rather than by heterotrophic fungi. I could also determine that AOA surprisingly responded positively to inorganic N availability in both short (one month) and long-term (seven years) experimental manipulations in an arid land soil, while environmental N enrichment in other ecosystem types is known to favor AOB over AOA. This work improves our predictions of ecosystem response to anthropogenic N increase and shows that paradigms derived from mesic systems are not always applicable to arid lands. My dissertation also highlights the unique ecology of ammonia oxidizers and draws attention to the importance of N cycling in desert soils.
ContributorsMarusenko, Yevgeniy (Author) / Hall, Sharon J (Thesis advisor) / Garcia-Pichel, Ferran (Thesis advisor) / Mclain, Jean E (Committee member) / Schwartz, Egbert (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
This dissertation investigates spatial and temporal changes in land cover and plant species distributions on Cyprus in the past, present and future (1973-2070). Landsat image analysis supports inference of land cover changes following the political division of the island of Cyprus in 1974. Urban growth in Nicosia, Larnaka and Limasol, as well as increased development along the southern coastline, is clearly evident between 1973 and 2011. Forests of the Troodos and Kyrenia Ranges remain relatively stable, with transitions occurring most frequently between agricultural land covers and shrub/herbaceous land covers. Vegetation models were constructed for twenty-two plant species of Cyprus using Maxent to predict potentially suitable areas of occurrence. Modern vegetation models were constructed from presence-only data collected by field surveys conducted between 2008 and 2011. These models provide a baseline for the assessment of potential species distributions under two climate change scenarios (A1b and A2) for the years 2030, 2050, and 2070. Climate change in Cyprus is likely to influence habitat availability, particularly for high elevation species as the relatively low elevation mountain ranges and small latitudinal range prevent species from shifting to areas of suitable environmental conditions. The loss of suitable habitat for some species may allow the introduction of non-native plant species or the expansion of generalists currently excluded from these areas. Results from future projections indicate the loss of suitable areas for most species by the year 2030 under both climate regimes and all four endemic species (Cedrus brevifolia, Helianthemum obtusifolium, Pterocephalus multiflorus, and Quercus alnifolia) are predicted to lose all suitable environments as soon as 2030. As striking exceptions Prunus dulcis (almond), Ficus carica (fig), Punica granatum (pomegranate) and Olea europaea (olive), which occur as both wild varieties and orchard cultigens, will expand under both scenarios. Land cover and species distribution maps are evaluated in concert to create a more detailed interpretation of the Cypriot landscape and to discuss the potential implications of climate change for land cover and plant species distributions.
ContributorsRidder, Elizabeth (Author) / Fall, Patricia L. (Thesis advisor) / Myint, Soe W (Committee member) / Hirt, Paul W (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
This dissertation explores different methodologies for combining two popular design paradigms in the field of computer experiments. Space-filling designs are commonly used in order to ensure that there is good coverage of the design space, but they may not result in good properties when it comes to model fitting. Optimal designs traditionally perform very well in terms of model fitting, particularly when a polynomial is intended, but can result in problematic replication in the case of insignificant factors. By bringing these two design types together, positive properties of each can be retained while mitigating potential weaknesses. Hybrid space-filling designs, generated as Latin hypercubes augmented with I-optimal points, are compared to designs of each contributing component. A second design type called a bridge design is also evaluated, which further integrates the disparate design types. Bridge designs are the result of a Latin hypercube undergoing coordinate exchange to reach constrained D-optimality, ensuring that there is zero replication of factors in any one-dimensional projection. Lastly, bridge designs were augmented with I-optimal points with two goals in mind. Augmentation with candidate points generated assuming the same underlying analysis model serves to reduce the prediction variance without greatly compromising the space-filling property of the design, while augmentation with candidate points generated assuming a different underlying analysis model can greatly reduce the impact of model misspecification during the design phase. Each of these composite designs are compared to pure space-filling and optimal designs. They typically out-perform pure space-filling designs in terms of prediction variance and alphabetic efficiency, while maintaining comparability with pure optimal designs at small sample size. This justifies them as excellent candidates for initial experimentation.
ContributorsKennedy, Kathryn (Author) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Thesis advisor) / Johnson, Rachel T. (Thesis advisor) / Fowler, John W (Committee member) / Borror, Connie M. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Livestock-grazing, in particular cattle grazing, is a common use of public and private lands in western North America. As a result, the effects of grazing on both plants and animals are widely studied. Few studies, however, look directly at the long-term effects that cattle grazing may have on a particular species. The goal of this experiment was to continue research begun in 1988, to determine if the effects of cattle grazing are still seen in the age structure of two populations of saguaros (Carnegiea gigantea [Engelm.] Britton & Rose) at Saguaro National Park - Rincon Mountain District (SNP-RMD). The null hypothesis stated that enough time has elapsed since the cessation of grazing, and there is no difference in the age distribution of the saguaros of the two populations. The study area was comprised of a former fence line where grazing ceased on the western side of the fence in 1958 and the eastern side in 1978. Belt transects were laid on each side of the fence line and height was measured for each saguaro encountered in a transect. Approximate age of the individual was then calculated using an age-height correlation for SNP-RMD. Individuals were then placed into age classes of 10 year increments and a Log-Likelihood test was performed. The resulting calculated P value of 0.12 meant the null hypothesis was not rejected and there was no statistical difference between the age structure of the two populations. After 34 and 54 years rest from grazing, the negative effects of cattle grazing on the retention and recruitment of saguaro seedlings have ended, and replenishment of the populations is now dependent upon factors such as temperature and precipitation. Other factors such as climate change, increasing fire frequency, encroachment by invasive species, and poaching are sources of concern and increased mortality for these and other saguaros.
ContributorsKrone, Elizabeth AnnMarie Stewart (Author) / Alford, Eddie (Thesis advisor) / Brady, Ward (Committee member) / Green, Douglas (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013