Phoenix Regional Heat and Air Quality Knowledge Repository

Objectives: We estimated neighborhood effects of population characteristics and built and natural environments on deaths due to heat exposure in Maricopa County, Arizona (2000–2008).

Methods: We used 2000 U.S. Census data and remotely sensed vegetation and land surface temperature to construct indicators of neighborhood vulnerability and a geographic information system to map vulnerability and residential addresses of persons who died from heat exposure in 2,081 census block groups. Binary logistic regression and spatial analysis were used to associate deaths with neighborhoods.

Results: Neighborhood scores on three factors—socioeconomic vulnerability, elderly/isolation, and unvegetated area—varied widely throughout the study area. The preferred model (based on fit and parsimony) for predicting the odds of one or more deaths from heat exposure within a census block group included the first two factors and surface temperature in residential neighborhoods, holding population size constant. Spatial analysis identified clusters of neighborhoods with the highest heat vulnerability scores. A large proportion of deaths occurred among people, including homeless persons, who lived in the inner cores of the largest cities and along an industrial corridor.

Conclusions: Place-based indicators of vulnerability complement analyses of person-level heat risk factors. Surface temperature might be used in Maricopa County to identify the most heat-vulnerable neighborhoods, but more attention to the socioecological complexities of climate adaptation is needed.

In this study we characterized the relationship between temperature and mortality in central Arizona desert cities that have an extremely hot climate. Relationships between daily maximum apparent temperature (ATmax) and mortality for eight condition-specific causes and all-cause deaths were modeled for all residents and separately for males and females ages <65 and ≥65 during the months May–October for years 2000–2008. The most robust relationship was between ATmax on day of death and mortality from direct exposure to high environmental heat. For this condition-specific cause of death, the heat thresholds in all gender and age groups (ATmax = 90–97 °F; 32.2‒36.1 °C) were below local median seasonal temperatures in the study period (ATmax = 99.5 °F; 37.5 °C). Heat threshold was defined as ATmax at which the mortality ratio begins an exponential upward trend. Thresholds were identified in younger and older females for cardiac disease/stroke mortality (ATmax = 106 and 108 °F; 41.1 and 42.2 °C) with a one-day lag. Thresholds were also identified for mortality from respiratory diseases in older people (ATmax = 109 °F; 42.8 °C) and for all-cause mortality in females (ATmax = 107 °F; 41.7 °C) and males <65 years (ATmax = 102 °F; 38.9 °C). Heat-related mortality in a region that has already made some adaptations to predictable periods of extremely high temperatures suggests that more extensive and targeted heat-adaptation plans for climate change are needed in cities worldwide.

Rapid urbanization of the planet is occurring at an unprecedented pace, primarily in arid and semi-arid hot climates [Golden, J.S., 2004. The built environment induced urban heat island effect in rapidly urbanizing arid regions – a sustainable urban engineering complexity. Environ. Sci. J. Integr. Environ. Res. 1 (4), 321–349]. This growth has manifested itself as a cause of various impacts including elevated urban temperatures in comparison to rural sites known as the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect [Oke, T.R., 1982. The energetic basis of the urban heat island. Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc. 108, 1–24]. Related are the increased demands for electric power as a result of population growth and increased need for mechanical cooling due to the UHI. In the United States, the Environmental Protection Agency has developed a three-prong approach of (1) cool pavements, (2) urban forestry and (3) cool roofs to mitigate the UHI. Researchers undertook an examination of micro scale benefits of the utilization of photovoltaic panels to reduce the thermal impacts to surface temperatures of pavements in comparison to urban forestry. The results of the research indicate that photovoltaic panels provide a greater thermal reduction benefit during the diurnal cycle in comparison to urban forestry while also providing the additional benefits of supporting peak energy demand, conserving water resources and utilizing a renewable energy source.

This established model is applied here to show the relative effects of four common mitigation strategies: increasing the overall (1) emissivity, (2) percentage of vegetated area, (3) thermal conductivity, and (4) albedo of the urban environment in a series of percentage increases by 5, 10, 15, and 20% from baseline values.