Barrett, The Honors College Thesis/Creative Project Collection
Barrett, The Honors College at Arizona State University proudly showcases the work of undergraduate honors students by sharing this collection exclusively with the ASU community.
Barrett accepts high performing, academically engaged undergraduate students and works with them in collaboration with all of the other academic units at Arizona State University. All Barrett students complete a thesis or creative project which is an opportunity to explore an intellectual interest and produce an original piece of scholarly research. The thesis or creative project is supervised and defended in front of a faculty committee. Students are able to engage with professors who are nationally recognized in their fields and committed to working with honors students. Completing a Barrett thesis or creative project is an opportunity for undergraduate honors students to contribute to the ASU academic community in a meaningful way.
Displaying 1 - 10 of 13
Description
I built a short-term West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price-forecasting model for two periods to understand how various drivers of crude oil behaved before and after the Great Recession. According to the Federal Reserve the Great Recession "...began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009" (Rich 1). The research involves two models spanning two periods. The first period encompasses 2000 to late 2007 and the second period encompasses early 2010 to 2016. The dependent variable for this model is monthly average WTI crude oil prices. The independent variables are based on what the academic community believes are drivers of crude oil prices. While the studies may be scattered across different time periods, they provide valuable insight on what the academic community believes drives oil prices. The model includes variables that address two different data groups including: 1. Market fundamentals/expectations of market fundamentals 2. Speculation One of the biggest challenges I faced was defining and quantifying "speculation". I ended up using a previous study's definition of "speculation", which it defined as the activity of certain market participants in the Commitment of Traders report released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. My research shows that the West Texas Intermediate crude oil market exhibited a structural change after the Great Recession. Furthermore, my research also presents interesting findings that warrant further research. For example, I find that 3-month T-bills and 10yr Treasury notes lose their predictive edge starting in the second period (2010-2016). Furthermore, the positive correlation between oil and the U.S. dollar in the period 2000-2007 warrants further investigation. Lastly, it might be interesting to see why T-bills are positively correlated to WTI prices and 10yr Treasury notes are negatively correlated to WTI prices.
ContributorsMirza, Hisham Tariq (Author) / McDaniel, Cara (Thesis director) / Budolfson, Arthur (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
The classification of financially at-risk is an expansive term that fits the personal profile of most individuals when it comes to the conditioning of their attitude toward money management, particularly in the planning and investment of that money for the achievement of long-term goals. In the case of this thesis, we focus primarily on those who have made a career in professional athletics and entertainment. The behavioral finance tendencies of these two industry professions are widely regarded as insufficient and often damaging the to the longevity of achieved financial security. This ideology stems primarily from an environment where individuals enjoy rapid wealth accumulation in a highly competitive and constantly transitioning role within their respective crafts. The subjectively common behavioral shortcomings of these world-class athletes and performers and uncertain day-to-day security of the professions which these at-risk individuals possess make for highly unfavorable circumstances when striving to achieve a lifetime of income and a secure retirement. In examining individuals of these classes who have faced grave financial hardship, this thesis will serve as a basis for identifying measures to recondition problematic behavioral tendencies that ultimately cause disengagement from a prudent financial plan. Therefore, this thesis will also serve as a framework to determine what investment strategies will complement the behavioral modifications financial planners strive to instill in these individuals, so that professional athletes, celebrities, and financially at-risk professionals alike may achieve higher probability of creating financial freedom through the engaged execution of a goals-based financial plan.
ContributorsKeller, Charles Phillip (Author) / Licon, Wendell (Thesis director) / Budolfson, Arthur (Committee member) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
With many recent events, such as the 2008 Financial Crisis, still under heavy scrutiny from the public, the payment received by executives at some of the major US banking institutions has been at the center of a major debate: are bank executives overpaid? While many people have attempted to answer this question, it is important to look at historical data and determine whether banks tie executive pay to the performance of the firm. The authors gathered historical 10-K data on firm performance at five major banks (Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan, US Bancorp, and Wells Fargo), as well as Proxy Statement data on how top-5 executives were being paid at these banks. Correlations between how the firm performed during a given year and what the executive officers of the bank were paid were calculated, to see whether the two subjects correlated with one another. Results were mixed-certain banks drew large correlations between the pay of executives and firm performance, while other banks did not. Interpretation of such data leads to a belief that some banks rely on overall firm performance when setting pay packages for executives, while other banks do not, perhaps using internal measures of performance unknown to the public. Extensive further research could be conducted on this issue to determine what other measures might play a more prominent role when it comes to deciding pay for executives at big banks.
ContributorsScheven, Tyler (Co-author) / Mayer, Robert (Co-author) / LePine, Marcie (Thesis director) / Budolfson, Arthur (Committee member) / Sampedro, Louie (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Management (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
This paper investigates whether measures of investor sentiment can be used to predict future total returns of the S&P 500 index. Rolling regressions and other statistical techniques are used to determine which indicators contain the most predictive information and which time horizons' returns are "easiest" to predict in a three year data set. The five "most predictive" indicators are used to predict 180 calendar day future returns of the market and simulated investment of hypothetical accounts is conducted in an independent six year data set based on the rolling regression future return predictions. Some indicators, most notably the VIX index, appear to contain predictive information which led to out-performance of the accounts that invested based on the rolling regression model's predictions.
ContributorsDundas, Matthew William (Author) / Boggess, May (Thesis director) / Budolfson, Arthur (Committee member) / Hedegaard, Esben (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor)
Created2013-12
Description
This paper seeks to put a spotlight on much that is wrong in the United States with cancer drug development, pricing, marketing and outcomes. Roche Pharmaceutical's cancer drug, Avastin will be used as an example to highlight these issues. Drug patents, Medicare policies, weak metrics of efficacy and ceaseless demand—allow drug manufacturers to price their oncology treatments as they choose, regardless of results, and with virtually no competition, avenue or institution that serves to lower prices in the United States. Avastin will be established as an oncology drug that is overpriced and poorly evaluated based on its effectiveness. Facts, opinions and study analytics will be offered (from industry experts, insiders, doctors and scientists) that in almost all cases show that patients treated with Avastin receive marginal benefit. Allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices with manufacturers, reducing conflicts of interest for doctors, setting research & development investment requirements and creating more relevant clinical metrics for use in FDA approvals would help reduce the financial burden on cancer patients and taxpayers.
ContributorsTrettin, Michael William (Author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Budolfson, Arthur (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
Description
The United States has experienced a financial crisis every ten years for the past three decades. Investors, financial institutions, and government officials fear these moments because of how negative the experience is and the strain it puts on the nation’s financial markets. Analyzing the financial crises of 1987, 1997 and 2008 shows what is to blame for the chaotic times that happened. In all these instances, human actions set up the occurrences that allowed a crash to take place. Each crash is different in their own respect; however, greed, procrastination and a herd mentality are the biggest reappearing trends in each ten-year cycle. Human nature helped escalate each of these crises as well, making them worse than they might have been.
It is important to know why financial crises happen every ten years since the United States is approaching what could be the next ten-year cycle. However, 2019 could be the year the financial markets escape past trends, but that will not happen without understanding why past crises have taken place. If humans stop creating the occurrences for a crisis, there will be nothing for human nature to escalate and make worse. The more independence and knowledge investors and financial institutions have, the easier it will be to stop the occurrences that create a crisis every ten years. This thesis explores why human actions are really to blame for the financial crises the United States’ markets have experienced, and why human nature is to blame for escalating the crisis experienced. Moving forward, if humans can stop creating the occurrences for a financial crisis, the markets can be changed for the better.
It is important to know why financial crises happen every ten years since the United States is approaching what could be the next ten-year cycle. However, 2019 could be the year the financial markets escape past trends, but that will not happen without understanding why past crises have taken place. If humans stop creating the occurrences for a crisis, there will be nothing for human nature to escalate and make worse. The more independence and knowledge investors and financial institutions have, the easier it will be to stop the occurrences that create a crisis every ten years. This thesis explores why human actions are really to blame for the financial crises the United States’ markets have experienced, and why human nature is to blame for escalating the crisis experienced. Moving forward, if humans can stop creating the occurrences for a financial crisis, the markets can be changed for the better.
ContributorsPoore, Savannah Shea (Author) / Licon, Lawrence (Thesis director) / Budolfson, Arthur (Committee member) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
This thesis set out to find whether or not there is a correlation between assets under management (AUM) of institutional investment managers and their sponsorship of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). It first examines the history of how and why ETFs entered the marketplace and how they have evolved over time in use by institutional investors. It then explains the features that make ETFs unique, and which are desirable to investors. Institutional investors can benefit from arbitrage opportunities in the creation redemption process used to bring ETFs to market; however, this paper will assert that the marketability of ETF products and their associated brand recognition contributes to the value of the firms who sponsor them. Finally, this paper will show that between 1993 and 2015, firms who have sponsored ETFs have had a greater growth in AUM than firms who have not sponsored ETFs.
ContributorsSnittjer, Jenna K (Author) / Radway, Debra (Thesis director) / Budolfson, Arthur (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
This paper explores the universe of non-performing loans and tries to examine the effects that a sharp increase in NPLs would cause. The first part of the paper explores some of the most shared definitions of NPL as well as the accounting treatment under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). In the second part of the paper, literature regarding determinants of NPLs is summarized and categorized into three broad categories: macroeconomic determinants, institutional variables, and bank-specific variables. Eventually, in the last part of the paper, a fictional bank is built and tested against a two and three standard deviation NPL events. The worst loss occurring in the simulated events eroded 26% of the capital (2.55% of the assets) forcing the fictional bank to recapitalize and experience expensive recovery processes.
ContributorsFranceschi, Stefano (Author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Budolfson, Arthur (Committee member) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-12
Description
This paper explores the rationale and analysis of a global financial institution and the methodologies used to underwrite a deal between the commercial bank and a middle market client looking to renew existing commercial loans; particularly a real estate term loan, long-term revolving line of credit, guidance line of credit (GLOC), equipment line of credit, and an interest rate swap contract. Typical analysis in the form of risk allowance, collateral due diligence, industry observation, and company-specific financial and operational strength has been performed and the deal has been approved by JPMorgan Chase & Co. Additionally, the frequency of covenant default has been determined by a pro forma income statement simulation based on a combination of both normal and uniform distributions to determine various outcomes for sales and cost of goods sold growth in future years. The results of the simulation are used to determine probability of default on specific financial covenants in the deal to gain a better understanding of the risks associated with the proposed exposure amount and the client's future financial situation.
ContributorsHebert, Troy Thomas (Author) / Boguth, Oliver (Thesis director) / Budolfson, Arthur (Committee member) / Hoyt, Jeffrey (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
In this paper the interest yield curve will be plotted at three points based upon three models that were found appropriate for each rate. Knowledge of the term structure of interest yield curves is helpful in the understanding of bond pricing, investment decisions, and public policy (ANG). This paper will examine the intricacies of the yield curve by developing three individual reference rates -a 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year- with the use of financial instruments and multivariate linear regression. Based upon the example of Nelson and Siegel (1987), Black, Derman, and Toy (1990), Mishkin (1990), Ang and Piazzesi (2002) and Diebold et al. (2005) the models will feature various financial assets as well as macroeconomic variables in order to gain an understanding of which factors have the most significant effect on interest rates.
ContributorsKim, A. Minyu (Author) / Mendez, J. Vincent (Author) / Tram, T. Dan (Author) / Gallais, Sylvain (Thesis director) / Budolfson, Arthur (Committee member) / Gopalan, Ramu (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor)
Created2012-12