Barrett, The Honors College Thesis/Creative Project Collection

In this study, I sought to determine which NFL Combine metrics are predictive of future NFL success among the quarterback, running back, and wide receiver positions, with the hope of providing meaningful information that can be utilized by NFL executives when making decisions about draft selections. I gathered samples spanning across the years 2010-2015 of all three of the aforementioned position groups. Among these samples, I used certain criteria which split them up within their position groups. The two groups of players were identified as: those who had successful careers and those who had unsuccessful careers. Given this information, I performed t-tests and ANOVA between successful and unsuccessful groups with the goal of identifying which combine metrics are predictive of future NFL success, and which are not. For quarterbacks, the 40-yard dash, broad jump, three-cone, and 10-yard shuttle all appear to be predictive of success. Notably, quarterback height does not appear to be predictive, despite the popular belief that a quarterback should be tall if they are to succeed. For running backs, player weight, 40-yard dash, and three-cone all appear to be predictive of success, with the broad jump and 10-yard shuttle seemingly predicting success as well, albeit to a lesser degree of strength. For wide receivers, all metrics do not appear to be predictive of success, with the exception of the 40-yard dash, which only appears to be slightly predictive. While there are likely many other factors that contribute to a player’s success than tests administered at the NFL combine, NFL general managers can look to these results when making draft selections.

In the early years of the National Football League, scouting and roster development resembled the wild west. Drafts were held in hotel ballrooms the day after the last game of regular season college football was played. There was no combine, limited scouting, and no salary cap. Over time, these aspects have changed dramatically, in part due to key figures from Pete Rozelle to Gil Brandt to Bill Belichick. The development and learning from this time period have laid the foundational infrastructure that modern roster construction is based upon. In this modern day, managing a team and putting together a roster involves numerous people, intense scouting, layers of technology, and, critically, the management of the salary cap. Since it was first put into place in 1994, managing the cap has become an essential element of building and sustaining a successful team. The New England Patriots’ mastery of the cap is a large part of what enabled their dynastic run over the past twenty years. While their model has undoubtedly proven to be successful, an opposing model has become increasingly popular and yielded results of its own. Both models center around different distributions of the salary cap, starting with the portion paid to the starting quarterback. The Patriots dynasty was, in part, made possible due to their use of both models over the course of their dominance. Drafting, organizational culture, and coaching are all among the numerous critical factors in determining a team’s success and it becomes difficult to pinpoint the true source of success for any given team. Ultimately, however, effective management of the cap proves to be a force multiplier; it does not guarantee that a team will be successful, but it helps teams that handle the other variables well sustain their success.