Barrett, The Honors College at Arizona State University proudly showcases the work of undergraduate honors students by sharing this collection exclusively with the ASU community.

Barrett accepts high performing, academically engaged undergraduate students and works with them in collaboration with all of the other academic units at Arizona State University. All Barrett students complete a thesis or creative project which is an opportunity to explore an intellectual interest and produce an original piece of scholarly research. The thesis or creative project is supervised and defended in front of a faculty committee. Students are able to engage with professors who are nationally recognized in their fields and committed to working with honors students. Completing a Barrett thesis or creative project is an opportunity for undergraduate honors students to contribute to the ASU academic community in a meaningful way.

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This thesis takes the form of a market research report with the goal of analyzing the implications of the United Kingdom (UK) leaving the European Union (EU) (known as “Brexit”) on London’s office commercial real estate market. The ultimate goal of this report is to make a prediction, firmly grounded

This thesis takes the form of a market research report with the goal of analyzing the implications of the United Kingdom (UK) leaving the European Union (EU) (known as “Brexit”) on London’s office commercial real estate market. The ultimate goal of this report is to make a prediction, firmly grounded in quantitative and qualitative research conducted over the past several months, as to the direction of London’s commercial real estate market going forward (post-Brexit). Within the commercial real estate sector, this paper narrows its focus to the office segment of the London market.

Understanding the political landscape is crucial to formulating a reasonable prediction as to the future of the London market. Aside from research reports and articles, our main insights into the political direction of Brexit come from our recordings from meetings in March of 2017 with two high-ranking members of Parliament and one member of the House of Lords—all of whom are members of the Tory Party (the meetings being held under the condition of anonymity). The below analysis will be followed by a discussion of the economics of Brexit, primarily focusing on the economic risks and uncertainties which have emerged after the vote, and which currently exist today. Such risks include the UK losing its financial passporting rights, weakening GDP and currency value, the potential for a reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI), and the potential loss of the service sector in the city of London due to not being able to access the European Single Market.

The report will shift focus to analyzing three competing viewpoints of the direction of the London market based on recordings from interviews of stakeholders in the London real estate market. One being an executive of one of the largest REITs in the UK, another being the Global Head of Real Estate at a top asset management firm, and another being a director at a large property consulting firm. The report includes these differing “sub-theses” in order to try to make sense of the vast market uncertainties post-Brexit as well as to contrast their viewpoints with where the market is currently and with the report’s investment recommendation.

The remainder of the report will consist of the methods used for analyzing market trends including how the data was modeled in order to make the investment recommendation. The report will analyze real estate and market metrics pre-Brexit, immediately after the vote, post-Brexit, and will conclude with future projections encapsulating the investment recommendation.
ContributorsHorn, Jonathan (Co-author) / Sidi, Adam (Co-author) / Bonadurer, Werner (Thesis director) / McDaniel, Cara (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-12
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Description

This thesis investigates the performance of publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the United States (U.S.) and their sensitivity to underlying macroeconomic factors. Specifically, this study employs a quantitative research analysis that utilizes technical, correlation, and regression analyses to identify how different REIT sectors react to changes

This thesis investigates the performance of publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the United States (U.S.) and their sensitivity to underlying macroeconomic factors. Specifically, this study employs a quantitative research analysis that utilizes technical, correlation, and regression analyses to identify how different REIT sectors react to changes in economic conditions. Data for the study was collected from publicly available and reliable sources, including the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (Nareit) and the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). Four areas of research guide the study. First, the study explores the relationship between different REIT property sectors and the underlying causes of similarities and differences in sector performance. Second, the study examines how macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, inflation, and interest rates, affect the performance of publicly traded equity REITs. Third, the study investigates the significance of the relationship between macroeconomic factors and REIT sector performance to assess the varying impact on different property types. Finally, the study explores whether a model can be developed to predict the performance of REIT sectors based on macroeconomic variables. Overall, the findings in this study will provide valuable insights into how REITs across and within property types perform and react to changes in the macroeconomic environment. Furthermore, because real estate represents a significant component of the economy, it can offer investors valuable insights into broader economic trends and conditions, contributing to a better understanding of economic cycles and identifying potential opportunities and risks.

ContributorsMartin, Virginia (Author) / Koblenz, Blair (Thesis director) / Stapp, Mark (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor)
Created2023-05