Barrett, The Honors College Thesis/Creative Project Collection
Barrett, The Honors College at Arizona State University proudly showcases the work of undergraduate honors students by sharing this collection exclusively with the ASU community.
Barrett accepts high performing, academically engaged undergraduate students and works with them in collaboration with all of the other academic units at Arizona State University. All Barrett students complete a thesis or creative project which is an opportunity to explore an intellectual interest and produce an original piece of scholarly research. The thesis or creative project is supervised and defended in front of a faculty committee. Students are able to engage with professors who are nationally recognized in their fields and committed to working with honors students. Completing a Barrett thesis or creative project is an opportunity for undergraduate honors students to contribute to the ASU academic community in a meaningful way.
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- Creators: Barrett, The Honors College
- Creators: Kashiwagi, Jacob
Description
In recent years, advanced metrics have dominated the game of Major League Baseball. One such metric, the Pythagorean Win-Loss Formula, is commonly used by fans, reporters, analysts and teams alike to use a team’s runs scored and runs allowed to estimate their expected winning percentage. However, this method is not perfect, and shows notable room for improvement. One such area that could be improved is its ability to be affected drastically by a single blowout game, a game in which one team significantly outscores their opponent.<br/>We hypothesize that meaningless runs scored in blowouts are harming the predictive power of Pythagorean Win-Loss and similar win expectancy statistics such as the Linear Formula for Baseball and BaseRuns. We developed a win probability-based cutoff approach that tallied the score of each game once a certain win probability threshold was passed, effectively removing those meaningless runs from a team’s season-long runs scored and runs allowed totals. These truncated totals were then inserted into the Pythagorean Win-Loss and Linear Formulas and tested against the base models.<br/>The preliminary results show that, while certain runs are more meaningful than others depending on the situation in which they are scored, the base models more accurately predicted future record than our truncated versions. For now, there is not enough evidence to either confirm or reject our hypothesis. In this paper, we suggest several potential improvement strategies for the results.<br/>At the end, we address how these results speak to the importance of responsibility and restraint when using advanced statistics within reporting.
ContributorsIversen, Joshua Allen (Author) / Satpathy, Asish (Thesis director) / Kurland, Brett (Committee member) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Comm (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
Description
The history of baseball in California extends back, long before the first MLB teams relocated to the West Coast. Beginning in the mid-1850s as a result of the large population influx that occurred because of the California Gold Rush, baseball served as a popular form of entertainment in the Golden State for nearly a century before the MLB's westward expansion, starting out as an amateur form of recreation, yet evolving to ultimately become a professional sport, led by the Pacific Coast League (PCL), an organization that fulfilled the same role as the MLB in the Eastern United States. The PCL enjoyed several decades of prosperity, with teams located throughout California and in Washington. One of the league's more successful teams was the Los Angeles Angels. In existence since 1903, the Angels became one of the more popular teams within the PCL and were regularly contenders to win the pennant. In 1956, after multiple attempts to have the city build a new stadium for his team, Walter O'Malley, president of the Brooklyn Dodgers began considering the possibility of relocating the team to a new state. After a series of negotiations, the Dodgers moved to Los Angeles where they began the 1958 season, while the New York Giants relocated to San Francisco. This move ultimately proved to be the downfall of the PCL, which was unable to compete with the new MLB teams. The various ball clubs that made up the PCL soon moved to other states east of California and the league was demoted to AAA status. In the following years, the success brought on by the Dodgers' move to the West Coast became evident and the American League soon decided to create a new franchise in Los Angeles. A name that would harken back to the glory years of the PCL was chosen and the new team was designated the "Los Angeles Angels." Throughout the Angels' history, they have attempted to compete directly with the Dodgers and establish their own fan base, however due to the difficulty in standing out when located so close to the wildly popular Dodgers, the team was unable to establish a successful and unique team identity for the majority of its history. To evaluate the effectiveness of the different changes the Angels have made over time, a study was conducted to evaluate perceptions between the two teams. The findings indicated a preference towards the Angels among participants from the United States, especially those familiar with the MLB and its structure. In contrast, the Dodgers proved to be more popular among participants who were originally from other countries. People who preferred the Angels also appeared to be more competitive than those who indicated a preference for the Dodgers. From these results it appears that the Angels have been successful in their quest to rival the Dodgers and establish their own substantial fan base. However it also seems that the Dodgers may have more international fans, as well as a large number of fans from the United States who tend to be more casual.
ContributorsMonaghan, Joshua Timothy (Author) / Eaton, John (Thesis director) / Mokwa, Michael (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
This study consisted of two fundamental experiments that examined the effects of surface parameters on baseball aerodynamics. The first experiment measured drag and lift coefficients in response to varied surface treatments of a non-spinning baseball. This experiment found that rougher surfaces (rubbing mud, increased ball usage, and scuffing) decrease drag coefficient by up to 0.05 for Reynolds numbers of up to 1.5x105 (wind speeds of 30 m/s or 67 mph). The maximum observed increase in lift coefficient was 0.20, caused by heavily scuffing the top of the ball. These results can be explained by boundary layer transition phenomena and asymmetry in the surface roughness of the ball. A decrease in drag coefficient of 0.05 can translate to an increase in the flight distance of a batted ball by as much as 50 ft (14%), and an increase of 0.20 in lift coefficient can increase flight distance by 70 ft (19%) \u2014 numbers that can easily mean the difference between a routine fly out and a monster home run. The second experiment measured drag and lift coefficients in response to varied stitch geometries of a non-spinning, 3D-printed baseball. Increasing stitch height, width, and spacing was found to increase drag coefficient, while increasing stitch length had little effect on lift coefficient. Increasing any parameter of the stitch geometry was found to increase lift coefficient. These results can be explained by boundary layer transition phenomena, blockage effects, and asymmetry in the stitch geometry of the ball. Future work would do well to repeat these experiments with a larger wind tunnel and a more sensitive force balance. These results should also be validated at higher wind speeds, and for spinning, rather than stationary baseballs. In addition, future work should explore the degree to which surface roughness and stitch geometry affect drag and lift coefficients at different ball orientations.
ContributorsDwight, Jeremiah Robert (Author) / Squires, Kyle (Thesis director) / Steele, Bruce (Committee member) / Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
The story of Moneyball is an informative tale. It is the true story of the Oakland Athletics baseball team in the 2002 season who managed to not only compete with teams who had nearly three times the payroll size and all the star players, but also won an American League record 20 games in a row. Their manager, Billy Beane, was able to achieve this by using sabermetrics, a newly invented term that describes the advanced statistics and metrics used to judge a player's contribution to the success of the team over traditional statistics and gut feeling, to draft and trade for undervalued players to create a competitive team under his small-market budget. This story is well known as a best-selling novel by Michael Lewis and later a film by the same name. Clearly it was successful in the field of baseball, but can it be used in other business industries? The idea of sabermetrics, or finding more information to predict the future of a player is very similar to the ideas of Information Measurement Theory (IMT) as theorized by Dr. Dean Kashiwagi, a professor at Arizona State University. The goal of this paper is to use Moneyball as a narrative to show how applying the concepts of IMT to businesses could allow them to better predict their performance and the future of their industry. Moreover, these same ideas can predict if the leadership of the company will be successful by analyzing their personal characteristics. This paper will act as a guide for businesses to start following the concepts of IMT and to better analyze themselves and their industry to increase performance and reduce stressful decision-making.
ContributorsKent, Austin (Author) / Kashiwagi, Dean (Thesis director) / Kashiwagi, Jacob (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
In a season that spans 162 games over the course of six months, MLB teams that travel more face additional fatigue and jetlag from travel. This factor could negatively impact them on the field. To explore this issue, I tested the significance of different variables by creating four models, which compared travel with a team's ability to win games as well as its ability to hit home runs. Based on these models, it appears as though changing time zones does not affect the outcome of games. However, these results did indicate that visiting teams with a greater time zone advantage over their opponent are less likely to hit a home run in a game.
ContributorsAronson, Sean Matthew (Author) / MacFie, Brian (Thesis director) / Eaton, John (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / WPC Graduate Programs (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
The widespread use of statistical analysis in sports-particularly Baseball- has made it increasingly necessary for small and mid-market teams to find ways to maintain their analytical advantages over large market clubs. In baseball, an opportunity for exists for teams with limited financial resources to sign players under team control to long-term contracts before other teams can bid for their services in free agency. If small and mid-market clubs can successfully identify talented players early, clubs can save money, achieve cost certainty and remain competitive for longer periods of time. These deals are also advantageous to players since they receive job security and greater financial dividends earlier in their career. The objective of this paper is to develop a regression-based predictive model that teams can use to forecast the performance of young baseball players with limited Major League experience. There were several tasks conducted to achieve this goal: (1) Data was obtained from Major League Baseball and Lahman's Baseball Database and sorted using Excel macros for easier analysis. (2) Players were separated into three positional groups depending on similar fielding requirements and offensive profiles: Group I was comprised of first and third basemen, Group II contains second basemen, shortstops, and center fielders and Group III contains left and right fielders. (3) Based on the context of baseball and the nature of offensive performance metrics, only players who achieve greater than 200 plate appearances within the first two years of their major league debut are included in this analysis. (4) The statistical software package JMP was used to create regression models of each group and analyze the residuals for any irregularities or normality violations. Once the models were developed, slight adjustments were made to improve the accuracy of the forecasts and identify opportunities for future work. It was discovered that Group I and Group III were the easiest player groupings to forecast while Group II required several attempts to improve the model.
ContributorsJack, Nathan Scott (Author) / Shunk, Dan (Thesis director) / Montgomery, Douglas (Committee member) / Borror, Connie (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
The purpose of this thesis is to cover the multiple aspects of Major League Baseball Expansion from 30 to 32 teams. The thesis can be divided into two parts with the first being the preparation and consideration for expansion, and the second half is about the execution and implementation of adding two expansion teams to the league.
For years, Commissioner Rob Manfred has hinted and brought about the idea of adding two more teams to Major League Baseball (Mitchell). The growth of the game is of utmost importance, and they have made many changes to try to expand the growth of fans the past few years particularly catered to new and young fans. New rules like a pitch clock and mound visit limitations are examples of in game changes made to speed up the game, but they have also experimented with spring training and regular season games internationally or at new venues. In just the past decade, games have been played or planned (due to COVID-19 cancellations) in Monterrey, Mexico City, London, Tokyo, San Juan, Montreal, Las Vegas, Williamsport, and even Iowa. With the exception of the Williamsport Little League Classic and the Field of Dreams game in Iowa, all these locations had games to see what the atmosphere and logistics would be like with expansion in mind as a possibility in the future. With this in mind, this thesis will analyze and come to a conclusion on the following cities for the best fits for expansion: Monterrey, Mexico City, San Juan, Vancouver, Montreal, Las Vegas, Portland, Nashville, Raleigh, and San Antonio.
For years, Commissioner Rob Manfred has hinted and brought about the idea of adding two more teams to Major League Baseball (Mitchell). The growth of the game is of utmost importance, and they have made many changes to try to expand the growth of fans the past few years particularly catered to new and young fans. New rules like a pitch clock and mound visit limitations are examples of in game changes made to speed up the game, but they have also experimented with spring training and regular season games internationally or at new venues. In just the past decade, games have been played or planned (due to COVID-19 cancellations) in Monterrey, Mexico City, London, Tokyo, San Juan, Montreal, Las Vegas, Williamsport, and even Iowa. With the exception of the Williamsport Little League Classic and the Field of Dreams game in Iowa, all these locations had games to see what the atmosphere and logistics would be like with expansion in mind as a possibility in the future. With this in mind, this thesis will analyze and come to a conclusion on the following cities for the best fits for expansion: Monterrey, Mexico City, San Juan, Vancouver, Montreal, Las Vegas, Portland, Nashville, Raleigh, and San Antonio.
ContributorsLieberman, Jake Robert (Author) / Eaton, John (Thesis director) / McIntosh, Daniel (Committee member) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
Description
Accurately assessing Major League Baseball player value is at the core of consistent success for any MLB organization. Effectively targeting players in trades and strategically spending available funds in the free agent market are of increasing importance as MLB salaries rise. In a sport where it takes 162 games to separate contenders, any advantage in identifying talent can be the difference between winning and losing. This paper draws team batting data from the past seven MLB seasons and runs a multi-variable regression to measure the run value of each individual batting outcome. If teams can more accurately measure the offensive value a player produces, they can more optimally spend their finances. Our regression results suggest that previously used statistics such as wOBA and OPS neglect outcome that have significant effects: baserunning ability and out type. Further contract analysis on four free-agent signing from 2018-2019 free agent class illustrate that teams often over and underestimate player value and could benefit greatly with more accurate player evaluation.
ContributorsGildea, Matthew E (Author) / Eaton, John (Thesis director) / Mokwa, Michael (Committee member) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
This project looks at the change in strikeout patterns over the past 19 years of Major League Baseball. New research in 2001 revolutionized the pitching statistics field, and non-coincidentally, the number of strikeouts has ballooned since then. I first detail the statistical nature of the increase, looking at where the additional strikeouts are coming from. Then, a discussion of why this has happened, referencing changes in baseball strategy and talent usage optimization follows. The changes in the ways MLB teams use their pitching staffs are largely the cause of this increase. Similar research is cited to confirm that these strategy changes are valid and are having the effect of increasing strikeouts in the game. Strikeout numbers are then compared to other pitching statistics over the years to determine whether the increase has had any effect on other pitching metrics. Lastly, overall team success is looked at as a verification method as to whether the increased focus on increasing strikeouts has created positive results for major league teams. Teams making the MLB playoffs consistently ranked much higher than non-qualifying teams in terms of strikeout rates. Also included in the project are the details of data acquisition and manipulation, to ensure the figures used are valid. Ideas for future research and further work on the topic are included, as the amount of data available in this field is quite staggering. Further analysis could dive into the ways pitches themselves are changing, rather than looking at pitching outcomes. Overall, the project details and explains a major shift in the way baseball has been played over the last 19 years, complete with both pure data analysis and supplementary commentary and explanation
ContributorsCasalena, Jontito (Author) / Doig, Stephen (Thesis director) / Pomrenke, Jacob (Committee member) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
In baseball, a starting pitcher has historically been a more durable pitcher capable of lasting long into games without tiring. For the entire history of Major League Baseball, these pitchers have been expected to last 6 innings or more into a game before being replaced. However, with the advances in statistics and sabermetrics and their gradual acceptance by professional coaches, the role of the starting pitcher is beginning to change. Teams are experimenting with having starters being replaced quicker, challenging the traditional role of the starting pitcher. The goal of this study is to determine if there is an exact point at which a team would benefit from replacing a starting or relief pitcher with another pitcher using statistical analyses. We will use logistic stepwise regression to predict the likelihood of a team scoring a run if a substitution is made or not made given the current game situation.
ContributorsBuckley, Nicholas J (Author) / Samara, Marko (Thesis director) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05