ASU Regents' Professors Open Access Works
The title “Regents’ Professor” is the highest faculty honor awarded at Arizona State University. It is conferred on ASU faculty who have made pioneering contributions in their areas of expertise, who have achieved a sustained level of distinction, and who enjoy national and international recognition for these accomplishments. This collection contains primarily open access works by ASU Regents' Professors.
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- Creators: Franklin, Janet
Description
A species’ response to climate change depends on the interaction of biotic and abiotic factors that define future habitat suitability and species’ ability to migrate or adapt. The interactive effects of processes such as fire, dispersal, and predation have not been thoroughly addressed in the climate change literature. Our objective was to examine how life history traits, short-term global change perturbations, and long-term climate change interact to affect the likely persistence of an oak species - Quercus engelmannii (Engelmann oak). Specifically, we combined dynamic species distribution models, which predict suitable habitat, with stochastic, stage-based metapopulation models, which project population trajectories, to evaluate the effects of three global change factors – climate change, land use change, and altered fire frequency – emphasizing the roles of dispersal and seed predation. Our model predicted dramatic reduction in Q. engelmannii abundance, especially under drier climates and increased fire frequency. When masting lowers seed predation rates, decreased masting frequency leads to large abundance decreases. Current rates of dispersal are not likely to prevent these effects, although increased dispersal could mitigate population declines. The results suggest that habitat suitability predictions by themselves may under-estimate the impact of climate change for other species and locations.
ContributorsConlisk, Erin (Author) / Lawson, Dawn (Author) / Syphard, Alexandra D. (Author) / Franklin, Janet (Author) / Flint, Lorraine (Author) / Flint, Alan (Author) / Regan, Helen M. (Author) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (Contributor)
Created2012-05-18
Description
Aim
To establish a chronology for late Quaternary avian extinction, extirpation and persistence in the Bahamas, thereby testing the relative roles of climate change and human impact as causes of extinction.
Location
Great Abaco Island (Abaco), Bahamas, West Indies.
Methods
We analysed the resident bird community as sampled by Pleistocene (> 11.7 ka) and Holocene (< 11.7 ka) fossils. Each species was classified as extinct (lost globally), extirpated (gone from Abaco but persists elsewhere), or extant (still resident on Abaco). We compared patterns of extinction, extirpation and persistence to independent estimates of climate and sea level for glacial (late Pleistocene) and interglacial (Holocene) times.
Results
Of 45 bird species identified in Pleistocene fossils, 25 (56%) no longer occur on Abaco (21 extirpated, 4 extinct). Of 37 species recorded in Holocene deposits, 15 (14 extirpated, 1 extinct; total 41%) no longer exist on Abaco. Of the 30 extant species, 12 were recovered as both Pleistocene and Holocene fossils, as were 9 of the 30 extirpated or extinct species. Most of the extinct or extirpated species that were only recorded from Pleistocene contexts are characteristic of open habitats (pine woodlands or grasslands); several of the extirpated species are currently found only where winters are cooler than in the modern or Pleistocene Bahamas. In contrast, most of the extinct or extirpated species recorded from Holocene contexts are habitat generalists.
Main conclusions
The fossil evidence suggests two main times of late Quaternary avian extirpation and extinction in the Bahamas. The first was during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition (PHT; 15–9 ka) and was fuelled by climate change and associated changes in sea level and island area. The second took place during the late Holocene (< 4 ka, perhaps primarily < 1 ka) and can be attributed to human impact. Although some species lost during the PHT are currently found where climates are cooler and drier than in the Bahamas today, a taxonomically and ecologically diverse set of species persisted through that major climate change but did not survive the past millennium of human presence.
ContributorsSteadman, David W. (Author) / Franklin, Janet (Author) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (Contributor)
Created2015-03-01
Description
Estimating and projecting population trends using population viability analysis (PVA) are central to identifying species at risk of extinction and for informing conservation management strategies. Models for PVA generally fall within two categories, scalar (count-based) or matrix (demographic). Model structure, process error, measurement error, and time series length all have known impacts in population risk assessments, but their combined impact has not been thoroughly investigated. We tested the ability of scalar and matrix PVA models to predict percent decline over a ten-year interval, selected to coincide with the IUCN Red List criterion A. 3, using data simulated for a hypothetical, short-lived organism with a simple life-history and for a threatened snail, Tasmaphena lamproides. PVA performance was assessed across different time series lengths, population growth rates, and levels of process and measurement error. We found that the magnitude of effects of measurement error, process error, and time series length, and interactions between these, depended on context. We found that high process and measurement error reduced the reliability of both models in predicted percent decline. Both sources of error contributed strongly to biased predictions, with process error tending to contribute to the spread of predictions more than measurement error. Increasing time series length improved precision and reduced bias of predicted population trends, but gains substantially diminished for time series lengths greater than 10-15 years. The simple parameterization scheme we employed contributed strongly to bias in matrix model predictions when both process and measurement error were high, causing scalar models to exhibit similar or greater precision and lower bias than matrix models. Our study provides evidence that, for short-lived species with structured but simple life histories, short time series and simple models can be sufficient for reasonably reliable conservation decision-making, and may be preferable for population projections when unbiased estimates of vital rates cannot be obtained.
ContributorsRueda-Cediel, Pamela (Author) / Anderson, Kurt E. (Author) / Regan, Tracey J. (Author) / Franklin, Janet (Author) / Regan, Helen M. (Author) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (Contributor)
Created2015-07-15
Description
Background
Neighborhood environment studies of physical activity (PA) have been mainly single-country focused. The International Prevalence Study (IPS) presented a rare opportunity to examine neighborhood features across countries. The purpose of this analysis was to: 1) detect international neighborhood typologies based on participants’ response patterns to an environment survey and 2) to estimate associations between neighborhood environment patterns and PA.
Methods
A Latent Class Analysis (LCA) was conducted on pooled IPS adults (N=11,541) aged 18 to 64 years old (mean=37.5 ±12.8 yrs; 55.6% women) from 11 countries including Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Hong Kong, Japan, Lithuania, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the U.S. This subset used the Physical Activity Neighborhood Environment Survey (PANES) that briefly assessed 7 attributes within 10–15 minutes walk of participants’ residences, including residential density, access to shops/services, recreational facilities, public transit facilities, presence of sidewalks and bike paths, and personal safety. LCA derived meaningful subgroups from participants’ response patterns to PANES items, and participants were assigned to neighborhood types. The validated short-form International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) measured likelihood of meeting the 150 minutes/week PA guideline. To validate derived classes, meeting the guideline either by walking or total PA was regressed on neighborhood types using a weighted generalized linear regression model, adjusting for gender, age and country.
Results
A 5-subgroup solution fitted the dataset and was interpretable. Neighborhood types were labeled, “Overall Activity Supportive (52% of sample)”, “High Walkable and Unsafe with Few Recreation Facilities (16%)”, “Safe with Active Transport Facilities (12%)”, “Transit and Shops Dense with Few Amenities (15%)”, and “Safe but Activity Unsupportive (5%)”. Country representation differed by type (e.g., U.S. disproportionally represented “Safe but Activity Unsupportive”). Compared to the Safe but Activity Unsupportive, two types showed greater odds of meeting PA guideline for walking outcome (High Walkable and Unsafe with Few Recreation Facilities, OR= 2.26 (95% CI 1.18-4.31); Overall Activity Supportive, OR= 1.90 (95% CI 1.13-3.21). Significant but smaller odds ratios were also found for total PA.
Conclusions
Meaningful neighborhood patterns generalized across countries and explained practical differences in PA. These observational results support WHO/UN recommendations for programs and policies targeted to improve features of the neighborhood environment for PA.
Neighborhood environment studies of physical activity (PA) have been mainly single-country focused. The International Prevalence Study (IPS) presented a rare opportunity to examine neighborhood features across countries. The purpose of this analysis was to: 1) detect international neighborhood typologies based on participants’ response patterns to an environment survey and 2) to estimate associations between neighborhood environment patterns and PA.
Methods
A Latent Class Analysis (LCA) was conducted on pooled IPS adults (N=11,541) aged 18 to 64 years old (mean=37.5 ±12.8 yrs; 55.6% women) from 11 countries including Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Hong Kong, Japan, Lithuania, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the U.S. This subset used the Physical Activity Neighborhood Environment Survey (PANES) that briefly assessed 7 attributes within 10–15 minutes walk of participants’ residences, including residential density, access to shops/services, recreational facilities, public transit facilities, presence of sidewalks and bike paths, and personal safety. LCA derived meaningful subgroups from participants’ response patterns to PANES items, and participants were assigned to neighborhood types. The validated short-form International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) measured likelihood of meeting the 150 minutes/week PA guideline. To validate derived classes, meeting the guideline either by walking or total PA was regressed on neighborhood types using a weighted generalized linear regression model, adjusting for gender, age and country.
Results
A 5-subgroup solution fitted the dataset and was interpretable. Neighborhood types were labeled, “Overall Activity Supportive (52% of sample)”, “High Walkable and Unsafe with Few Recreation Facilities (16%)”, “Safe with Active Transport Facilities (12%)”, “Transit and Shops Dense with Few Amenities (15%)”, and “Safe but Activity Unsupportive (5%)”. Country representation differed by type (e.g., U.S. disproportionally represented “Safe but Activity Unsupportive”). Compared to the Safe but Activity Unsupportive, two types showed greater odds of meeting PA guideline for walking outcome (High Walkable and Unsafe with Few Recreation Facilities, OR= 2.26 (95% CI 1.18-4.31); Overall Activity Supportive, OR= 1.90 (95% CI 1.13-3.21). Significant but smaller odds ratios were also found for total PA.
Conclusions
Meaningful neighborhood patterns generalized across countries and explained practical differences in PA. These observational results support WHO/UN recommendations for programs and policies targeted to improve features of the neighborhood environment for PA.
ContributorsAdams, Marc (Author) / Ding, Ding (Author) / Sallis, James F. (Author) / Bowles, Heather R. (Author) / Ainsworth, Barbara (Author) / Bergman, Patrick (Author) / Bull, Fiona C. (Author) / Carr, Harriette (Author) / Craig, Cora L. (Author) / De Bourdeaudhuij, Ilse (Author) / Fernando Gomez, Luis (Author) / Hagstromer, Maria (Author) / Klasson-Heggebo, Lena (Author) / Inoue, Shigeru (Author) / Lefevre, Johan (Author) / Macfarlane, Duncan J. (Author) / Matsudo, Sandra (Author) / Matsudo, Victor (Author) / McLean, Grant (Author) / Murase, Norio (Author) / Sjostrom, Michael (Author) / Tomten, Heidi (Author) / Volbekiene, Vida (Author) / Bauman, Adrian (Author) / College of Health Solutions (Contributor) / School of Nutrition and Health Promotion (Contributor)
Created2013-03-07
Description
Background
Increasing empirical evidence supports associations between neighborhood environments and physical activity. However, since most studies were conducted in a single country, particularly western countries, the generalizability of associations in an international setting is not well understood. The current study examined whether associations between perceived attributes of neighborhood environments and physical activity differed by country.
Methods
Population representative samples from 11 countries on five continents were surveyed using comparable methodologies and measurement instruments. Neighborhood environment × country interactions were tested in logistic regression models with meeting physical activity recommendations as the outcome, adjusted for demographic characteristics. Country-specific associations were reported.
Results
Significant neighborhood environment attribute × country interactions implied some differences across countries in the association of each neighborhood attribute with meeting physical activity recommendations. Across the 11 countries, land-use mix and sidewalks had the most consistent associations with physical activity. Access to public transit, bicycle facilities, and low-cost recreation facilities had some associations with physical activity, but with less consistency across countries. There was little evidence supporting the associations of residential density and crime-related safety with physical activity in most countries.
Conclusion
There is evidence of generalizability for the associations of land use mix, and presence of sidewalks with physical activity. Associations of other neighborhood characteristics with physical activity tended to differ by country. Future studies should include objective measures of neighborhood environments, compare psychometric properties of reports across countries, and use better specified models to further understand the similarities and differences in associations across countries.
Increasing empirical evidence supports associations between neighborhood environments and physical activity. However, since most studies were conducted in a single country, particularly western countries, the generalizability of associations in an international setting is not well understood. The current study examined whether associations between perceived attributes of neighborhood environments and physical activity differed by country.
Methods
Population representative samples from 11 countries on five continents were surveyed using comparable methodologies and measurement instruments. Neighborhood environment × country interactions were tested in logistic regression models with meeting physical activity recommendations as the outcome, adjusted for demographic characteristics. Country-specific associations were reported.
Results
Significant neighborhood environment attribute × country interactions implied some differences across countries in the association of each neighborhood attribute with meeting physical activity recommendations. Across the 11 countries, land-use mix and sidewalks had the most consistent associations with physical activity. Access to public transit, bicycle facilities, and low-cost recreation facilities had some associations with physical activity, but with less consistency across countries. There was little evidence supporting the associations of residential density and crime-related safety with physical activity in most countries.
Conclusion
There is evidence of generalizability for the associations of land use mix, and presence of sidewalks with physical activity. Associations of other neighborhood characteristics with physical activity tended to differ by country. Future studies should include objective measures of neighborhood environments, compare psychometric properties of reports across countries, and use better specified models to further understand the similarities and differences in associations across countries.
ContributorsDing, Ding (Author) / Adams, Marc (Author) / Sallis, James F. (Author) / Norman, Gregory J. (Author) / Hovell, Melbourn F. (Author) / Chambers, Christina D. (Author) / Hofstetter, C. Richard (Author) / Bowles, Heather R. (Author) / Hagstromer, Maria (Author) / Craig, Cora L. (Author) / Fernando Gomez, Luis (Author) / De Bourdeaudhuij, Ilse (Author) / Macfarlane, Duncan J. (Author) / Ainsworth, Barbara (Author) / Bergman, Patrick (Author) / Bull, Fiona C. (Author) / Carr, Harriette (Author) / Klasson-Heggebo, Lena (Author) / Inoue, Shigeru (Author) / Murase, Norio (Author) / Matsudo, Sandra (Author) / Matsudo, Victor (Author) / McLean, Grant (Author) / Sjostrom, Michael (Author) / Tomten, Heidi (Author) / Lefevre, Johan (Author) / Volbekiene, Vida (Author) / Bauman, Adrian E. (Author) / College of Health Solutions (Contributor) / School of Nutrition and Health Promotion (Contributor)
Created2013-05-14
Description
Tree and shrub abundance has increased in many grasslands causing changes in ecosystem carbon and nitrogen pools that are related to patterns of woody plant distribution. However, with regard to spatial patterns of shrub proliferation, little is known about how they are influenced by grazing or the extent to which they are influenced by intraspecific interactions. We addressed these questions by quantifying changes in the spatial distribution of Prosopis velutina (mesquite) shrubs over 74 years on grazed and protected grasslands. Livestock are effective agents of mesquite dispersal and mesquite plants have lateral roots extending well beyond the canopy. We therefore hypothesized that mesquite distributions would be random on grazed areas mainly due to cattle dispersion and clustered on protected areas due to decreased dispersal and interspecific interference with grasses; and that clustered or random distributions at early stages of encroachment would give way to regular distributions as stands matured and density-dependent interactions intensified. Assessments in 1932, 1948, and 2006 supported the first hypothesis, but we found no support for the second. In fact, clustering intensified with time on the protected area and the pattern remained random on the grazed site. Although shrub density increased on both areas between 1932 and 2006, we saw no progression toward a regular distribution indicative of density-dependent interactions. We propose that processes related to seed dispersal, grass–shrub seedling interactions, and hydrological constraints on shrub size interact to determine vegetation structure in grassland-to-shrubland state changes with implications for ecosystem function and management.
ContributorsBrowning, Dawn M. (Author) / Franklin, Janet (Author) / Archer, Steven R. (Author) / Gillan, Jeffrey K. (Author) / Guertin, D. Phillip (Author) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (Contributor)
Created2014-09-01
Description
Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a methodology that has been widely used in the past two decades for developing quantitative, empirical, predictive models of species–environment relationships. SDM methods could be more broadly applied than they currently are to address research questions in archaeology and paleoanthropology. Specifically, SDM can be used to hindcast paleodistributions of species and ecological communities (paleo-SDM) for time periods and locations of prehistoric human occupation. Paleo-SDM may be a powerful tool for understanding human prehistory if used to hindcast the distributions of plants, animals and ecological communities that were key resources for prehistoric humans and to use this information to reconstruct the resource landscapes (paleoscapes) of prehistoric people. Components of the resource paleoscape include species (game animals, food plants), habitats, and geologic features and landforms associated with stone materials for tools, pigments, and so forth. We first review recent advances in SDM as it has been used to hindcast paleodistributions of plants and animals in the field of paleobiology. We then compare the paleo-SDM approach to paleoenvironmental reconstructions modeled from zooarchaeological and archaeobotanical records, widely used in archaeology and paleoanthropology. Next, we describe the less well developed but promising approach of using paleo-SDM methods to reconstruct resource paleoscapes. We argue that paleo-SDM offers an explicitly deductive strategy that generates spatial predictions grounded in strong theoretical understandings of the relation between species, habitat distributions and environment. Because of their limited sampling of space and time, archaeobiological records may be better suited for paleo-SDM validation than directly for paleoenvironmental reconstruction. We conclude by discussing the data requirements, limitations and potential for using predictive modeling to reconstruct resource paleoscapes. There is a need for improved paleoclimate models, improved paleoclimate proxy and species paleodistribution data for model validation, attention to scale issues, and rigorous modeling methods including mechanistic models.
ContributorsFranklin, Janet (Author) / Potts, Alastair (Author) / Fisher, Erich (Author) / Cowling, Richard M. (Author) / Marean, Curtis (Author) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / Institute of Human Origins (Contributor)
Created2014-12-17