ASU Scholarship Showcase

Background: The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden.

Methods: We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization.

Results: Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south–north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918–19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave.

Conclusions: A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918-19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality.

Background: On 31 March 2013, the first human infections with the novel influenza A/H7N9 virus were reported in Eastern China. The outbreak expanded rapidly in geographic scope and size, with a total of 132 laboratory-confirmed cases reported by 3 June 2013, in 10 Chinese provinces and Taiwan. The incidence of A/H7N9 cases has stalled in recent weeks, presumably as a consequence of live bird market closures in the most heavily affected areas. Here we compare the transmission potential of influenza A/H7N9 with that of other emerging pathogens and evaluate the impact of intervention measures in an effort to guide pandemic preparedness.

Methods: We used a Bayesian approach combined with a SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed) transmission model fitted to daily case data to assess the reproduction number (R) of A/H7N9 by province and to evaluate the impact of live bird market closures in April and May 2013. Simulation studies helped quantify the performance of our approach in the context of an emerging pathogen, where human-to-human transmission is limited and most cases arise from spillover events. We also used alternative approaches to estimate R based on individual-level information on prior exposure and compared the transmission potential of influenza A/H7N9 with that of other recent zoonoses.

Results: Estimates of R for the A/H7N9 outbreak were below the epidemic threshold required for sustained human-to-human transmission and remained near 0.1 throughout the study period, with broad 95% credible intervals by the Bayesian method (0.01 to 0.49). The Bayesian estimation approach was dominated by the prior distribution, however, due to relatively little information contained in the case data. We observe a statistically significant deceleration in growth rate after 6 April 2013, which is consistent with a reduction in A/H7N9 transmission associated with the preemptive closure of live bird markets. Although confidence intervals are broad, the estimated transmission potential of A/H7N9 appears lower than that of recent zoonotic threats, including avian influenza A/H5N1, swine influenza H3N2sw and Nipah virus.

Conclusion: Although uncertainty remains high in R estimates for H7N9 due to limited epidemiological information, all available evidence points to a low transmission potential. Continued monitoring of the transmission potential of A/H7N9 is critical in the coming months as intervention measures may be relaxed and seasonal factors could promote disease transmission in colder months.

Uncovering the chemical and physical links between natural environments and microbial communities is becoming increasingly amenable owing to geochemical observations and metagenomic sequencing. At the hot spring known as Bison Pool in Yellowstone National Park, the cooling of the water in the outflow channel is associated with an increase in oxidation potential estimated from multiple field-based measurements. Representative groups of proteins whose sequences were derived from metagenomic data also exhibit an increase in average oxidation state of carbon in the protein molecules with distance from the hot-spring source. The energetic requirements of reactions to form selected proteins used in the model were computed using amino-acid group additivity for the standard molal thermodynamic properties of the proteins, and the relative chemical stabilities of the proteins were investigated by varying temperature, pH and oxidation state, expressed as activity of dissolved hydrogen. The relative stabilities of the proteins were found to track the locations of the sampling sites when the calculations included a function for hydrogen activity that increases with temperature and is higher, or more reducing, than values consistent with measurements of dissolved oxygen, sulfide and oxidation-reduction potential in the field. These findings imply that spatial patterns in the amino acid compositions of proteins can be linked, through energetics of overall chemical reactions representing the formation of the proteins, to the environmental conditions at this hot spring, even if microbial cells maintain considerably different internal conditions. Further applications of the thermodynamic calculations are possible for other natural microbial ecosystems.

Background: Highly refined surveillance data on the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic are crucial to quantify the spatial and temporal characteristics of the pandemic. There is little information about the spatial-temporal dynamics of pandemic influenza in South America. Here we provide a quantitative description of the age-specific morbidity pandemic patterns across administrative areas of Peru.

Methods: We used daily cases of influenza-like-illness, tests for A/H1N1 influenza virus infections, and laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases reported to the epidemiological surveillance system of Peru's Ministry of Health from May 1 to December 31, 2009. We analyzed the geographic spread of the pandemic waves and their association with the winter school vacation period, demographic factors, and absolute humidity. We also estimated the reproduction number and quantified the association between the winter school vacation period and the age distribution of cases.

Results: The national pandemic curve revealed a bimodal winter pandemic wave, with the first peak limited to school age children in the Lima metropolitan area, and the second peak more geographically widespread. The reproduction number was estimated at 1.6–2.2 for the Lima metropolitan area and 1.3–1.5 in the rest of Peru. We found a significant association between the timing of the school vacation period and changes in the age distribution of cases, while earlier pandemic onset was correlated with large population size. By contrast there was no association between pandemic dynamics and absolute humidity.

Conclusions: Our results indicate substantial spatial variation in pandemic patterns across Peru, with two pandemic waves of varying timing and impact by age and region. Moreover, the Peru data suggest a hierarchical transmission pattern of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 driven by large population centers. The higher reproduction number of the first pandemic wave could be explained by high contact rates among school-age children, the age group most affected during this early wave.

Streamer biofilm communities (SBC) are often observed within chemosynthetic zones of Yellowstone hot spring outflow channels, where temperatures exceed those conducive to photosynthesis. Nearest the hydrothermal source (75–88°C) SBC comprise thermophilic Archaea and Bacteria, often mixed communities including Desulfurococcales and uncultured Crenarchaeota, as well as Aquificae and Thermus, each carrying diagnostic membrane lipid biomarkers. We tested the hypothesis that SBC can alternate their metabolism between autotrophy and heterotrophy depending on substrate availability. Feeding experiments were performed at two alkaline hot springs in Yellowstone National Park: Octopus Spring and “Bison Pool,” using various ¹³C-labeled substrates (bicarbonate, formate, acetate, and glucose) to determine the relative uptake of these different carbon sources. Highest ¹³C uptake, at both sites, was from acetate into almost all bacterial fatty acids, particularly into methyl-branched C₁₅, C₁₇ and C₁₉ fatty acids that are diagnostic for Thermus/Meiothermus, and some Firmicutes as well as into universally common C_16:0 and C_18:0 fatty acids. ¹³C-glucose showed a similar, but a 10–30 times lower uptake across most fatty acids. ¹³C-bicarbonate uptake, signifying the presence of autotrophic communities was only significant at “Bison Pool” and was observed predominantly in non-specific saturated C₁₆, C₁₈, C₂₀, and C₂₂ fatty acids. Incorporation of ¹³C-formate occurred only at very low rates at “Bison Pool” and was almost undetectable at Octopus Spring, suggesting that formate is not an important carbon source for SBC. ¹³C-uptake into archaeal lipids occurred predominantly with ¹³C-acetate, suggesting also that archaeal communities at both springs have primarily heterotrophic carbon assimilation pathways. We hypothesize that these communities are energy-limited and predominantly nurtured by input of exogenous organic material, with only a small fraction being sustained by autotrophic growth.

Explosive extrusion of cold material from the interior of icy bodies, or cryovolcanism, has been observed on Enceladus and, perhaps, Europa, Triton, and Ceres. It may explain the observed evidence for a young surface on Charon (Pluto’s surface is masked by frosts). Here, we evaluate prerequisites for cryovolcanism on dwarf planet-class Kuiper belt objects (KBOs). We first review the likely spatial and temporal extent of subsurface liquid, proposed mechanisms to overcome the negative buoyancy of liquid water in ice, and the volatile inventory of KBOs. We then present a new geochemical equilibrium model for volatile exsolution and its ability to drive upward crack propagation. This novel approach bridges geophysics and geochemistry, and extends geochemical modeling to the seldom-explored realm of liquid water at subzero temperatures. We show that carbon monoxide (CO) is a key volatile for gas-driven fluid ascent; whereas CO₂ and sulfur gases only play a minor role. N₂, CH₄, and H₂ exsolution may also drive explosive cryovolcanism if hydrothermal activity produces these species in large amounts (a few percent with respect to water). Another important control on crack propagation is the internal structure: a hydrated core makes explosive cryovolcanism easier, but an undifferentiated crust does not. We briefly discuss other controls on ascent such as fluid freezing on crack walls, and outline theoretical advances necessary to better understand cryovolcanic processes. Finally, we make testable predictions for the 2015 New Horizons flyby of the Pluto-Charon system.

Carbon can be a major constituent of crustal and mantle fluids, occurring both as dissolved ionic species (e.g., carbonate ions or organic acids) and molecular species (e.g., CO₂, CO, CH₄, and more complex organic compounds). The chemistry of dissolved carbon changes dramatically with pressure (P) and temperature (T). In aqueous fluids at low P and T, molecular carbon gas species such as CO₂ and CH₄ saturate at low concentration to form a separate phase. With modest increases in P and T, these molecular species become fully miscible with H₂O, enabling deep crustal and mantle fluids to become highly concentrated in carbon. At such high concentrations, carbon species play an integral role as solvent components and, with H₂O, control the mobility of rock-forming elements in a wide range of geologic settings. The migration of carbon-bearing crustal and mantle fluids contributes to Earth’s carbon cycle; however, the mechanisms, magnitudes, and time variations of carbon transfer from depth to the surface remain least understood parts of the global carbon budget (Berner 1991, 1994; Berner and Kothavala 2001).