ASU Scholarship Showcase

This paper studies the effect of targeted observations on state and parameter estimates determined with Kalman filter data assimilation (DA) techniques. We first provide an analytical result demonstrating that targeting observations within the Kalman filter for a linear model can significantly reduce state estimation error as opposed to fixed or randomly located observations. We next conduct observing system simulation experiments for a chaotic model of meteorological interest, where we demonstrate that the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with targeted observations based on largest ensemble variance is skillful in providing more accurate state estimates than the LETKF with randomly located observations. Additionally, we find that a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter parameter estimation method accurately updates model parameters within the targeted observation context to further improve state estimation.

An interesting occurrence of a Rossby wave breaking event observed during the VORCORE experiment is presented and explained. Twenty-seven balloons were launched inside the Antarctic polar vortex. Almost all of these balloons evolved in the stratosphere around 500K within the vortex, except the one launched on 28 October 2005. In this case, the balloon was caught within a tongue of high potential vorticity (PV), and was ejected from the polar vortex. The evolution of this event is studied for the period between 19 and 25 November 2005. It is found that at the beginning of this period, the polar vortex experienced distortions due to the presence of Rossby waves. Then, these waves break and a tongue of high PV develops. On 25 November, the tongue became separated from the vortex and the balloon was ejected into the surf zone. Lagrangian simulations demonstrate that the air masses surrounding the balloon after its ejection were originating from the vortex edge. The wave breaking and the development of the tongue are confined within a region where a planetary Quasi-Stationary Wave 1 (QSW1) induces wind speeds with weaker values. The QSW1 causes asymmetry in the wind speed and the horizontal PV gradient along the edge of the polar vortex, resulting in a localized jet. Rossby waves with smaller scales propagating on top of this jet amplify as they enter the jet exit region and then break. The role of the QSW1 on the formation of the weak flow conditions that caused the non-linear wave breaking observed near the vortex edge is confirmed by three-dimensional numerical simulations using forcing with and without the contribution of the QSW1.

Physical mechanisms of incongruency between observations and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model predictions are examined. Limitations of evaluation are constrained by (i) parameterizations of model physics, (ii) parameterizations of input data, (iii) model resolution, and (iv) flux observation resolution. Observations from a new 22.1-m flux tower situated within a residential neighborhood in Phoenix, Arizona, are utilized to evaluate the ability of the urbanized WRF to resolve finescale surface energy balance (SEB) when using the urban classes derived from the 30-m-resolution National Land Cover Database. Modeled SEB response to a large seasonal variation of net radiation forcing was tested during synoptically quiescent periods of high pressure in winter 2011 and premonsoon summer 2012. Results are presented from simulations employing five nested domains down to 333-m horizontal resolution. A comparative analysis of model cases testing parameterization of physical processes was done using four configurations of urban parameterization for the bulk urban scheme versus three representations with the Urban Canopy Model (UCM) scheme, and also for two types of planetary boundary layer parameterization: the local Mellor–Yamada–Janjić scheme and the nonlocal Yonsei University scheme. Diurnal variation in SEB constituent fluxes is examined in relation to surface-layer stability and modeled diagnostic variables. Improvement is found when adapting UCM for Phoenix with reduced errors in the SEB components. Finer model resolution is seen to have insignificant (<1 standard deviation) influence on mean absolute percent difference of 30-min diurnal mean SEB terms.

Forecasts of noise pollution from a highway line segment noise source are obtained from a sound propagation model utilizing effective sound speed profiles derived from a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) limited area forecast with 1 km horizontal resolution and near-ground vertical resolution finer than 20 m. Methods for temporal along with horizontal and vertical spatial nesting are demonstrated within the NWP model for maintaining forecast feasibility. It is shown that vertical nesting can improve the prediction of finer structures in near-ground temperature and velocity profiles, such as morning temperature inversions and low level jet-like features. Accurate representation of these features is shown to be important for modeling sound refraction phenomena and for enabling accurate noise assessment. Comparisons are made using the parabolic equation model for predictions with profiles derived from NWP simulations and from field experiment observations during mornings on November 7 and 8, 2006 in Phoenix, Arizona. The challenges faced in simulating accurate meteorological profiles at high resolution for sound propagation applications are highlighted and areas for possible improvement are discussed.

The City of Phoenix (Arizona, USA) developed a Tree and Shade Master Plan and a Cool Roofs initiative to ameliorate extreme heat during the summer months in their arid city. This study investigates the impact of the City's heat mitigation strategies on daytime microclimate for a pre-monsoon summer day under current climate conditions and two climate change scenarios. We assessed the cooling effect of trees and cool roofs in a Phoenix residential neighborhood using the microclimate model ENVI-met. First, using xeric landscaping as a base, we created eight tree planting scenarios (from 0% canopy cover to 30% canopy cover) for the neighborhood to characterize the relationship between canopy cover and daytime cooling benefit of trees. In a second set of simulations, we ran ENVI-met for nine combined tree planting and landscaping scenarios (mesic, oasis, and xeric) with regular roofs and cool roofs under current climate conditions and two climate change projections. For each of the 54 scenarios, we compared average neighborhood mid-afternoon air temperatures and assessed the benefits of each heat mitigation measure under current and projected climate conditions. Findings suggest that the relationship between percent canopy cover and air temperature reduction is linear, with 0.14 °C cooling per percent increase in tree cover for the neighborhood under investigation. An increase in tree canopy cover from the current 10% to a targeted 25% resulted in an average daytime cooling benefit of up to 2.0 °C in residential neighborhoods at the local scale. Cool roofs reduced neighborhood air temperatures by 0.3 °C when implemented on residential homes. The results from this city-specific mitigation project will inform messaging campaigns aimed at engaging the city decision makers, industry, and the public in the green building and urban forestry initiatives.

Explicit solutions of the inhomogeneous paraxial wave equation in a linear and quadratic approximation are applied to wave fields with invariant features, such as oscillating laser beams in a parabolic waveguide and spiral light beams in varying media. A similar effect of superfocusing of particle beams in a thin monocrystal film, harmonic oscillations of cold trapped atoms, and motion in magnetic field are also mentioned.

In this paper, we study oscillating solutions of the 1D-quintic nonlinear Schrödinger equation with the help of Wigner's quasiprobability distribution in quantum phase space. An "absolute squeezing property," namely a periodic in time total localization of wave packets at some finite spatial points without violation of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle, is analyzed in this nonlinear model.

Summer daytime cooling efficiency of various land cover is investigated for the urban core of Phoenix, Arizona, using the Local-Scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS). We examined the urban energy balance for 2 summer days in 2005 to analyze the daytime cooling-water use tradeoff and the timing of sensible heat reversal at night. The plausibility of the LUMPS model results was tested using remotely sensed surface temperatures from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) imagery and reference evapotranspiration values from a meteorological station. Cooling efficiency was derived from sensible and latent heat flux differences. The time when the sensible heat flux turns negative (sensible heat flux transition) was calculated from LUMPS simulated hourly fluxes. Results indicate that the time when the sensible heat flux changes direction at night is strongly influenced by the heat storage capacity of different land cover types and by the amount of vegetation. Higher heat storage delayed the transition up to 3 h in the study area, while vegetation expedited the sensible heat reversal by 2 h. Cooling efficiency index results suggest that overall, the Phoenix urban core is slightly more efficient at cooling than the desert, but efficiencies do not increase much with wet fractions higher than 20%. Industrial sites with high impervious surface cover and low wet fraction have negative cooling efficiencies. Findings indicate that drier neighborhoods with heterogeneous land uses are the most efficient landscapes in balancing cooling and water use in Phoenix. However, further factors such as energy use and human vulnerability to extreme heat have to be considered in the cooling-water use tradeoff, especially under the uncertainties of future climate change.

Background: Environmental heat exposure is a public health concern. The impacts of environmental heat on mortality and morbidity at the population scale are well documented, but little is known about specific exposures that individuals experience.

Objectives: The first objective of this work was to catalyze discussion of the role of personal heat exposure information in research and risk assessment. The second objective was to provide guidance regarding the operationalization of personal heat exposure research methods.

Discussion: We define personal heat exposure as realized contact between a person and an indoor or outdoor environment that poses a risk of increases in body core temperature and/or perceived discomfort. Personal heat exposure can be measured directly with wearable monitors or estimated indirectly through the combination of time–activity and meteorological data sets. Complementary information to understand individual-scale drivers of behavior, susceptibility, and health and comfort outcomes can be collected from additional monitors, surveys, interviews, ethnographic approaches, and additional social and health data sets. Personal exposure research can help reveal the extent of exposure misclassification that occurs when individual exposure to heat is estimated using ambient temperature measured at fixed sites and can provide insights for epidemiological risk assessment concerning extreme heat.

Conclusions: Personal heat exposure research provides more valid and precise insights into how often people encounter heat conditions and when, where, to whom, and why these encounters occur. Published literature on personal heat exposure is limited to date, but existing studies point to opportunities to inform public health practice regarding extreme heat, particularly where fine-scale precision is needed to reduce health consequences of heat exposure.

We quantified the spatio-temporal patterns of land cover/land use (LCLU) change to document and evaluate the daytime surface urban heat island (SUHI) for five hot subtropical desert cities (Beer Sheva, Israel; Hotan, China; Jodhpur, India; Kharga, Egypt; and Las Vegas, NV, USA). Sequential Landsat images were acquired and classified into the USGS 24-category Land Use Categories using object-based image analysis with an overall accuracy of 80% to 95.5%. We estimated the land surface temperature (LST) of all available Landsat data from June to August for years 1990, 2000, and 2010 and computed the urban-rural difference in the average LST and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for each city. Leveraging non-parametric statistical analysis, we also investigated the impacts of city size and population on the urban-rural difference in the summer daytime LST and NDVI. Urban expansion is observed for all five cities, but the urbanization pattern varies widely from city to city. A negative SUHI effect or an oasis effect exists for all the cities across all three years, and the amplitude of the oasis effect tends to increase as the urban-rural NDVI difference increases. A strong oasis effect is observed for Hotan and Kharga with evidently larger NDVI difference than the other cities. Larger cities tend to have a weaker cooling effect while a negative association is identified between NDVI difference and population. Understanding the daytime oasis effect of desert cities is vital for sustainable urban planning and the design of adaptive management, providing valuable guidelines to foster smart desert cities in an era of climate variability, uncertainty, and change.