ASU Scholarship Showcase

A relatively unexplored issue in cybersecurity science and engineering is whether there exist intrinsic patterns of cyberattacks. Conventional wisdom favors absence of such patterns due to the overwhelming complexity of the modern cyberspace. Surprisingly, through a detailed analysis of an extensive data set that records the time-dependent frequencies of attacks over a relatively wide range of consecutive IP addresses, we successfully uncover intrinsic spatiotemporal patterns underlying cyberattacks, where the term “spatio” refers to the IP address space. In particular, we focus on analyzing macroscopic properties of the attack traffic flows and identify two main patterns with distinct spatiotemporal characteristics: deterministic and stochastic. Strikingly, there are very few sets of major attackers committing almost all the attacks, since their attack “fingerprints” and target selection scheme can be unequivocally identified according to the very limited number of unique spatiotemporal characteristics, each of which only exists on a consecutive IP region and differs significantly from the others. We utilize a number of quantitative measures, including the flux-fluctuation law, the Markov state transition probability matrix, and predictability measures, to characterize the attack patterns in a comprehensive manner. A general finding is that the attack patterns possess high degrees of predictability, potentially paving the way to anticipating and, consequently, mitigating or even preventing large-scale cyberattacks using macroscopic approaches.

Supply-demand processes take place on a large variety of real-world networked systems ranging from power grids and the internet to social networking and urban systems. In a modern infrastructure, supply-demand systems are constantly expanding, leading to constant increase in load requirement for resources and consequently, to problems such as low efficiency, resource scarcity, and partial system failures. Under certain conditions global catastrophe on the scale of the whole system can occur through the dynamical process of cascading failures. We investigate optimization and resilience of time-varying supply-demand systems by constructing network models of such systems, where resources are transported from the supplier sites to users through various links. Here by optimization we mean minimization of the maximum load on links, and system resilience can be characterized using the cascading failure size of users who fail to connect with suppliers.

We consider two representative classes of supply schemes: load driven supply and fix fraction supply. Our findings are: (1) optimized systems are more robust since relatively smaller cascading failures occur when triggered by external perturbation to the links; (2) a large fraction of links can be free of load if resources are directed to transport through the shortest paths; (3) redundant links in the performance of the system can help to reroute the traffic but may undesirably transmit and enlarge the failure size of the system; (4) the patterns of cascading failures depend strongly upon the capacity of links; (5) the specific location of the trigger determines the specific route of cascading failure, but has little effect on the final cascading size; (6) system expansion typically reduces the efficiency; and (7) when the locations of the suppliers are optimized over a long expanding period, fewer suppliers are required. These results hold for heterogeneous networks in general, providing insights into designing optimal and resilient complex supply-demand systems that expand constantly in time.

Land surface energy balance in a built environment is widely modelled using urban canopy models with representation of building arrays as big street canyons. Modification of this simplified geometric representation, however, leads to challenging numerical difficulties in improving physical parameterization schemes that are deterministic in nature. In this paper, we develop a stochastic algorithm to estimate view factors between canyon facets in the presence of shade trees based on Monte Carlo simulation, where an analytical formulation is inhibited by the complex geometry. The model is validated against analytical solutions of benchmark radiative problems as well as field measurements in real street canyons. In conjunction with the matrix method resolving infinite number of reflections, the proposed model is capable of predicting the radiative exchange inside the street canyon with good accuracy. Modeling of transient evolution of thermal filed inside the street canyon using the proposed method demonstrate the potential of shade trees in mitigating canyon surface temperatures as well as saving of building energy use. This new numerical framework also deepens our insight into the fundamental physics of radiative heat transfer and surface energy balance for urban climate modeling.

Studies on urban heat island (UHI) have been more than a century after the phenomenon was first discovered in the early 1800s. UHI emerges as the source of many urban environmental problems and exacerbates the living environment in cities. Under the challenges of increasing urbanization and future climate changes, there is a pressing need for sustainable adaptation/mitigation strategies for UHI effects, one popular option being the use of reflective materials. While it is introduced as an effective method to reduce temperature and energy consumption in cities, its impacts on environmental sustainability and large-scale non-local effect are inadequately explored. This paper provides a synthetic overview of potential environmental impacts of reflective materials at a variety of scales, ranging from energy load on a single building to regional hydroclimate. The review shows that mitigation potential of reflective materials depends on a set of factors, including building characteristics, urban environment, meteorological and geographical conditions, to name a few. Precaution needs to be exercised by city planners and policy makers for large-scale deployment of reflective materials before their environmental impacts, especially on regional hydroclimates, are better understood. In general, it is recommended that optimal strategy for UHI needs to be determined on a city-by-city basis, rather than adopting a “one-solution-fits-all” strategy.

Most previous works on complete synchronization of chaotic oscillators focused on the one-channel interaction scheme where the oscillators are coupled through only one variable or a symmetric set of variables. Using the standard framework of master-stability function (MSF), we investigate the emergence of complex synchronization behaviors under all possible configurations of two-channel coupling, which include, for example, all possible cross coupling schemes among the dynamical variables. Utilizing the classic Rössler and Lorenz oscillators, we find a rich variety of synchronization phenomena not present in any previously extensively studied, single-channel coupling configurations. For example, in many cases two coupling channels can enhance or even generate synchronization where there is only weak or no synchronization under only one coupling channel, which has been verified in a coupled neuron system. There are also cases where the oscillators are originally synchronized under one coupling channel, but an additional synchronizable coupling channel can, however, destroy synchronization. Direct numerical simulations of actual synchronization dynamics verify the MSF-based predictions. Our extensive computation and heuristic analysis provide an atlas for synchronization of chaotic oscillators coupled through two channels, which can be used as a systematic reference to facilitate further research in this area.

The hysteresis effect in diurnal cycles of net radiation R-n and ground heat flux G(0) has been observed in many studies, while the governing mechanism remains vague. In this study, we link the phenomenology of hysteresis loops to the wave phase difference between the diurnal evolutions of various terms in the surface energy balance. R-n and G(0) are parameterized with the incoming solar radiation and the surface temperature as two control parameters of the surface energy partitioning. The theoretical analysis shows that the vertical water flux W and the scaled ratio A(s)*/A(T)* (net shortwave radiation to outgoing longwave radiation) play crucial roles in shaping hysteresis loops of R-n and G(0). Comparisons to field measurements indicate that hysteresis loops for different land covers can be well captured by the theoretical model, which is also consistent with Camuffo-Bernadi formula. This study provides insight into the surface partitioning and temporal evolution of the energy budget at the land surface.

Investigation into the causes underlying the rapid, global amphibian decline provides critical insight into the effects of changing ecosystems. Hypothesized and confirmed links between amphibian declines, disease, and environmental changes are increasingly represented in published literature. However, there are few long-term amphibian studies that include data on population size, abnormality/injury rates, disease, and habitat variables to adequately assess changes through time. We cultured and identified microorganisms isolated from abnormal/injured and repressed tissue regeneration sites of the endangered Ozark Hellbender, Cryptobranchus alleganiensis bishopi, to discover potential causative agents responsible for their significant decline in health and population. This organism and our study site were chosen because the population and habitat of C. a. bishopi have been intensively studied from 1969–2009, and the abnormality/injury rate and apparent lack of regeneration were established.

Although many bacterial and fungal isolates recovered were common environmental organisms, several opportunistic pathogens were identified in association with only the injured tissues of C.a. bishopi. Bacterial isolates included Aeromonas hydrophila, a known amphibian pathogen, Granulicetella adiacens, Gordonai terrae, Stenotrophomonas maltophilia, Aerococcus viridans, Streptococcus pneumoniae and a variety of Pseudomonads, including Pseudomonas aeruginosa, P. stutzeri, and P. alcaligenes. Fungal isolates included species in the genera Penicillium, Acremonium, Cladosporium, Curvularia, Fusarium, Streptomycetes, and the Class Hyphomycetes. Many of the opportunistic pathogens identified are known to form biofilms. Lack of isolation of the same organism from all wounds suggests that the etiological agent responsible for the damage to C. a. bishopi may not be a single organism. To our knowledge, this is the first study to profile the external microbial consortia cultured from a Cryptobranchid salamander. The incidence of abnormalities/injury and retarded regeneration in C. a. bishopi may have many contributing factors including disease and habitat degradation. Results from this study may provide insight into other amphibian population declines.

This study examines the spatial and temporal patterns of the surface urban heat island (SUHI) intensity in the Phoenix metropolitan area and the relationship with land use land cover (LULC) change between 2000 and 2014. The objective is to identify specific regions in Phoenix that have been increasingly heated and cooled to further understand how LULC change influences the SUHI intensity. The data employed include MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) 8-day composite June imagery, and classified LULC maps generated using 2000 and 2014 Landsat imagery. Results show that the regions that experienced the most significant LST changes during the study period are primarily on the outskirts of the Phoenix metropolitan area for both daytime and nighttime. The conversion to urban, residential, and impervious surfaces from all other LULC types has been identified as the primary cause of the UHI effect in Phoenix. Vegetation cover has been shown to significantly lower LST for both daytime and nighttime due to its strong cooling effect by producing more latent heat flux and less sensible heat flux. We suggest that urban planners, decision-makers, and city managers formulate new policies and regulations that encourage residential, commercial, and industrial developers to include more vegetation when planning new construction.

A distinct pathovar of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium, ST313, has emerged in sub-Saharan Africa as a major cause of fatal bacteremia in young children and HIV-infected adults. D23580, a multidrug resistant clinical isolate of ST313, was previously shown to have undergone genome reduction in a manner that resembles that of the more human-restricted pathogen, Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi. It has since been shown through tissue distribution studies that D23580 is able to establish an invasive infection in chickens. However, it remains unclear whether ST313 can cause lethal disease in a non-human host following a natural course of infection. Herein we report that D23580 causes lethal and invasive disease in a murine model of infection following peroral challenge. The LD⁵⁰ of D23580 in female BALB/c mice was 4.7 x 10⁵ CFU. Tissue distribution studies performed 3 and 5 days post-infection confirmed that D23580 was able to more rapidly colonize the spleen, mesenteric lymph nodes and gall bladder in mice when compared to the well-characterized S. Typhimurium strain SL1344. D23580 exhibited enhanced resistance to acid stress relative to SL1344, which may lend towards increased capability to survive passage through the gastrointestinal tract as well as during its intracellular lifecycle. Interestingly, D23580 also displayed higher swimming motility relative to SL1344, S. Typhi strain Ty2, and the ST313 strain A130. Biochemical tests revealed that D23580 shares many similar metabolic features with SL1344, with several notable differences in the Voges-Proskauer and catalase tests, as well alterations in melibiose, and inositol utilization. These results represent the first full duration infection study using an ST313 strain following the entire natural course of disease progression, and serve as a benchmark for ongoing and future studies into the pathogenesis of D23580.

Resource allocation takes place in various types of real-world complex systems such as urban traffic, social services institutions, economical and ecosystems. Mathematically, the dynamical process of resource allocation can be modeled as minority games. Spontaneous evolution of the resource allocation dynamics, however, often leads to a harmful herding behavior accompanied by strong fluctuations in which a large majority of agents crowd temporarily for a few resources, leaving many others unused. Developing effective control methods to suppress and eliminate herding is an important but open problem. Here we develop a pinning control method, that the fluctuations of the system consist of intrinsic and systematic components allows us to design a control scheme with separated control variables. A striking finding is the universal existence of an optimal pinning fraction to minimize the variance of the system, regardless of the pinning patterns and the network topology. We carry out a generally applicable theory to explain the emergence of optimal pinning and to predict the dependence of the optimal pinning fraction on the network topology. Our work represents a general framework to deal with the broader problem of controlling collective dynamics in complex systems with potential applications in social, economical and political systems.