ASU Scholarship Showcase

A relatively unexplored issue in cybersecurity science and engineering is whether there exist intrinsic patterns of cyberattacks. Conventional wisdom favors absence of such patterns due to the overwhelming complexity of the modern cyberspace. Surprisingly, through a detailed analysis of an extensive data set that records the time-dependent frequencies of attacks over a relatively wide range of consecutive IP addresses, we successfully uncover intrinsic spatiotemporal patterns underlying cyberattacks, where the term “spatio” refers to the IP address space. In particular, we focus on analyzing macroscopic properties of the attack traffic flows and identify two main patterns with distinct spatiotemporal characteristics: deterministic and stochastic. Strikingly, there are very few sets of major attackers committing almost all the attacks, since their attack “fingerprints” and target selection scheme can be unequivocally identified according to the very limited number of unique spatiotemporal characteristics, each of which only exists on a consecutive IP region and differs significantly from the others. We utilize a number of quantitative measures, including the flux-fluctuation law, the Markov state transition probability matrix, and predictability measures, to characterize the attack patterns in a comprehensive manner. A general finding is that the attack patterns possess high degrees of predictability, potentially paving the way to anticipating and, consequently, mitigating or even preventing large-scale cyberattacks using macroscopic approaches.

Supply-demand processes take place on a large variety of real-world networked systems ranging from power grids and the internet to social networking and urban systems. In a modern infrastructure, supply-demand systems are constantly expanding, leading to constant increase in load requirement for resources and consequently, to problems such as low efficiency, resource scarcity, and partial system failures. Under certain conditions global catastrophe on the scale of the whole system can occur through the dynamical process of cascading failures. We investigate optimization and resilience of time-varying supply-demand systems by constructing network models of such systems, where resources are transported from the supplier sites to users through various links. Here by optimization we mean minimization of the maximum load on links, and system resilience can be characterized using the cascading failure size of users who fail to connect with suppliers.

We consider two representative classes of supply schemes: load driven supply and fix fraction supply. Our findings are: (1) optimized systems are more robust since relatively smaller cascading failures occur when triggered by external perturbation to the links; (2) a large fraction of links can be free of load if resources are directed to transport through the shortest paths; (3) redundant links in the performance of the system can help to reroute the traffic but may undesirably transmit and enlarge the failure size of the system; (4) the patterns of cascading failures depend strongly upon the capacity of links; (5) the specific location of the trigger determines the specific route of cascading failure, but has little effect on the final cascading size; (6) system expansion typically reduces the efficiency; and (7) when the locations of the suppliers are optimized over a long expanding period, fewer suppliers are required. These results hold for heterogeneous networks in general, providing insights into designing optimal and resilient complex supply-demand systems that expand constantly in time.

Most previous works on complete synchronization of chaotic oscillators focused on the one-channel interaction scheme where the oscillators are coupled through only one variable or a symmetric set of variables. Using the standard framework of master-stability function (MSF), we investigate the emergence of complex synchronization behaviors under all possible configurations of two-channel coupling, which include, for example, all possible cross coupling schemes among the dynamical variables. Utilizing the classic Rössler and Lorenz oscillators, we find a rich variety of synchronization phenomena not present in any previously extensively studied, single-channel coupling configurations. For example, in many cases two coupling channels can enhance or even generate synchronization where there is only weak or no synchronization under only one coupling channel, which has been verified in a coupled neuron system. There are also cases where the oscillators are originally synchronized under one coupling channel, but an additional synchronizable coupling channel can, however, destroy synchronization. Direct numerical simulations of actual synchronization dynamics verify the MSF-based predictions. Our extensive computation and heuristic analysis provide an atlas for synchronization of chaotic oscillators coupled through two channels, which can be used as a systematic reference to facilitate further research in this area.

The urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon is a significant worldwide problem caused by rapid population growth and associated urbanization. The UHI effect exacerbates heat waves during the summer, increases energy and water consumption, and causes the high risk of heat-related morbidity and mortality. UHI mitigation efforts have increasingly relied on wisely designing the urban residential environment such as using high albedo rooftops, green rooftops, and planting trees and shrubs to provide canopy coverage and shading. Thus, strategically designed residential rooftops and their surrounding landscaping have the potential to translate into significant energy, long-term cost savings, and health benefits. Rooftop albedo, material, color, area, slope, height, aspect and nearby landscaping are factors that potentially contribute. To extract, derive, and analyze these rooftop parameters and outdoor landscaping information, high resolution optical satellite imagery, LIDAR (light detection and ranging) point clouds and thermal imagery are necessary. Using data from the City of Tempe AZ (a 2010 population of 160,000 people), we extracted residential rooftop footprints and rooftop configuration parameters from airborne LIDAR point clouds and QuickBird satellite imagery (2.4 m spatial resolution imagery). Those parameters were analyzed against surface temperature data from the MODIS/ASTER airborne simulator (MASTER). MASTER images provided fine resolution (7 m) surface temperature data for residential areas during daytime and night time. Utilizing these data, ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was used to evaluate the relationships between residential building rooftops and their surface temperature in urban environment. The results showed that daytime rooftop temperature was closely related to rooftop spectral attributes, aspect, slope, and surrounding trees. Night time temperature was only influenced by rooftop spectral attributes and slope.

This study examines the spatial and temporal patterns of the surface urban heat island (SUHI) intensity in the Phoenix metropolitan area and the relationship with land use land cover (LULC) change between 2000 and 2014. The objective is to identify specific regions in Phoenix that have been increasingly heated and cooled to further understand how LULC change influences the SUHI intensity. The data employed include MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) 8-day composite June imagery, and classified LULC maps generated using 2000 and 2014 Landsat imagery. Results show that the regions that experienced the most significant LST changes during the study period are primarily on the outskirts of the Phoenix metropolitan area for both daytime and nighttime. The conversion to urban, residential, and impervious surfaces from all other LULC types has been identified as the primary cause of the UHI effect in Phoenix. Vegetation cover has been shown to significantly lower LST for both daytime and nighttime due to its strong cooling effect by producing more latent heat flux and less sensible heat flux. We suggest that urban planners, decision-makers, and city managers formulate new policies and regulations that encourage residential, commercial, and industrial developers to include more vegetation when planning new construction.

This paper reviews how remotely sensed data have been used to understand the impact of urbanization on global environmental change. We describe how these studies can support the policy and science communities’ increasing need for detailed and up-to-date information on the multiple dimensions of cities, including their social, biological, physical, and infrastructural characteristics. Because the interactions between urban and surrounding areas are complex, a synoptic and spatial view offered from remote sensing is integral to measuring, modeling, and understanding these relationships. Here we focus on three themes in urban remote sensing science: mapping, indices, and modeling. For mapping we describe the data sources, methods, and limitations of mapping urban boundaries, land use and land cover, population, temperature, and air quality. Second, we described how spectral information is manipulated to create comparative biophysical, social, and spatial indices of the urban environment. Finally, we focus how the mapped information and indices are used as inputs or parameters in models that measure changes in climate, hydrology, land use, and economics.

Deforestation in Myanmar has recently attracted much attention worldwide. This study examined spatio-temporal patterns of deforestation and forest carbon flux in Myanmar from 2001 to 2010 and environmental impacts at the regional scale using land products of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The results suggest that the total deforestation area in Myanmar was 21,178.8 km², with an annual deforestation rate of 0.81%, and that the total forest carbon release was 20.06 million tons, with an annual rate of 0.37%. Mangrove forests had the highest deforestation and carbon release rates, and deciduous forests had both the largest deforestation area and largest amount of carbon release. During the study period, the south and southwestern regions of Myanmar, especially Ayeyarwady and Rakhine, were deforestation hotspots (i.e., the highest deforestation and carbon release rates occurred in these regions). Deforestation caused significant carbon release, reduced evapotranspiration (ET), and increased land surface temperatures (LSTs) in deforested areas in Myanmar during the study period. Constructive policy recommendations are put forward based on these research results.

The Dawn Framing Camera (FC) has imaged the northern hemisphere of the Asteroid (4) Vesta at high spatial resolution and coverage. This study represents the first investigation of the overall geology of the northern hemisphere (22–90°N, quadrangles Av-1, 2, 3, 4 and 5) using these unique Dawn mission observations. We have compiled a morphologic map and performed crater size–frequency distribution (CSFD) measurements to date the geologic units. The hemisphere is characterized by a heavily cratered surface with a few highly subdued basins up to ∼200 km in diameter. The most widespread unit is a plateau (cratered highland unit), similar to, although of lower elevation than the equatorial Vestalia Terra plateau. Large-scale troughs and ridges have regionally affected the surface. Between ∼180°E and ∼270°E, these tectonic features are well developed and related to the south pole Veneneia impact (Saturnalia Fossae trough unit), elsewhere on the hemisphere they are rare and subdued (Saturnalia Fossae cratered unit). In these pre-Rheasilvia units we observed an unexpectedly high frequency of impact craters up to ∼10 km in diameter, whose formation could in part be related to the Rheasilvia basin-forming event. The Rheasilvia impact has potentially affected the northern hemisphere also with S–N small-scale lineations, but without covering it with an ejecta blanket. Post-Rheasilvia impact craters are small (<60 km in diameter) and show a wide range of degradation states due to impact gardening and mass wasting processes. Where fresh, they display an ejecta blanket, bright rays and slope movements on walls. In places, crater rims have dark material ejecta and some crater floors are covered by ponded material interpreted as impact melt.

Oppia Quadrangle Av-10 (288–360°E, ±22°) is a junction of key geologic features that preserve a rough history of Asteroid (4) Vesta and serves as a case study of using geologic mapping to define a relative geologic timescale. Clear filter images, stereo-derived topography, slope maps, and multispectral color-ratio images from the Framing Camera on NASA’s Dawn spacecraft served as basemaps to create a geologic map and investigate the spatial and temporal relationships of the local stratigraphy. Geologic mapping reveals the oldest map unit within Av-10 is the cratered highlands terrain which possibly represents original crustal material on Vesta that was then excavated by one or more impacts to form the basin Feralia Planitia. Saturnalia Fossae and Divalia Fossae ridge and trough terrains intersect the wall of Feralia Planitia indicating that this impact basin is older than both the Veneneia and Rheasilvia impact structures, representing Pre-Veneneian crustal material. Two of the youngest geologic features in Av-10 are Lepida (∼45 km diameter) and Oppia (∼40 km diameter) impact craters that formed on the northern and southern wall of Feralia Planitia and each cross-cuts a trough terrain. The ejecta blanket of Oppia is mapped as ‘dark mantle’ material because it appears dark orange in the Framing Camera ‘Clementine-type’ color-ratio image and has a diffuse, gradational contact distributed to the south across the rim of Rheasilvia. Mapping of surface material that appears light orange in color in the Framing Camera ‘Clementine-type’ color-ratio image as ‘light mantle material’ supports previous interpretations of an impact ejecta origin. Some light mantle deposits are easily traced to nearby source craters, but other deposits may represent distal ejecta deposits (emplaced >5 crater radii away) in a microgravity environment.

The Quadrangles Av-11 and Av-12 on Vesta are located at the northern rim of the giant Rheasilvia south polar impact basin. The primary geologic units in Av-11 and Av-12 include material from the Rheasilvia impact basin formation, smooth material and different types of impact crater structures (such as bimodal craters, dark and bright crater ray material and dark ejecta material). Av-11 and Av-12 exhibit almost the full range of mass wasting features observed on Vesta, such as slump blocks, spur-and-gully morphologies and landslides within craters. Processes of collapse, slope instability and seismically triggered events force material to slump down crater walls or scarps and produce landslides or rotational slump blocks. The spur-and-gully morphology that is known to form on Mars is also observed on Vesta; however, on Vesta this morphology formed under dry conditions.