ASU Scholarship Showcase

This paper studies the effect of targeted observations on state and parameter estimates determined with Kalman filter data assimilation (DA) techniques. We first provide an analytical result demonstrating that targeting observations within the Kalman filter for a linear model can significantly reduce state estimation error as opposed to fixed or randomly located observations. We next conduct observing system simulation experiments for a chaotic model of meteorological interest, where we demonstrate that the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with targeted observations based on largest ensemble variance is skillful in providing more accurate state estimates than the LETKF with randomly located observations. Additionally, we find that a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter parameter estimation method accurately updates model parameters within the targeted observation context to further improve state estimation.

The effects of urbanization on ozone levels have been widely investigated over cities primarily located in temperate and/or humid regions. In this study, nested WRF-Chem simulations with a finest grid resolution of 1 km are conducted to investigate ozone concentrations O₃ due to urbanization within cities in arid/semi-arid environments. First, a method based on a shape preserving Monotonic Cubic Interpolation (MCI) is developed and used to downscale anthropogenic emissions from the 4 km resolution 2005 National Emissions Inventory (NEI05) to the finest model resolution of 1 km. Using the rapidly expanding Phoenix metropolitan region as the area of focus, we demonstrate the proposed MCI method achieves ozone simulation results with appreciably improved correspondence to observations relative to the default interpolation method of the WRF-Chem system. Next, two additional sets of experiments are conducted, with the recommended MCI approach, to examine impacts of urbanization on ozone production: (1) the urban land cover is included (i.e., urbanization experiments) and, (2) the urban land cover is replaced with the region's native shrubland. Impacts due to the presence of the built environment on O₃ are highly heterogeneous across the metropolitan area. Increased near surface O₃ due to urbanization of 10–20 ppb is predominantly a nighttime phenomenon while simulated impacts during daytime are negligible. Urbanization narrows the daily O₃ range (by virtue of increasing nighttime minima), an impact largely due to the region's urban heat island. Our results demonstrate the importance of the MCI method for accurate representation of the diurnal profile of ozone, and highlight its utility for high-resolution air quality simulations for urban areas.

A relatively unexplored issue in cybersecurity science and engineering is whether there exist intrinsic patterns of cyberattacks. Conventional wisdom favors absence of such patterns due to the overwhelming complexity of the modern cyberspace. Surprisingly, through a detailed analysis of an extensive data set that records the time-dependent frequencies of attacks over a relatively wide range of consecutive IP addresses, we successfully uncover intrinsic spatiotemporal patterns underlying cyberattacks, where the term “spatio” refers to the IP address space. In particular, we focus on analyzing macroscopic properties of the attack traffic flows and identify two main patterns with distinct spatiotemporal characteristics: deterministic and stochastic. Strikingly, there are very few sets of major attackers committing almost all the attacks, since their attack “fingerprints” and target selection scheme can be unequivocally identified according to the very limited number of unique spatiotemporal characteristics, each of which only exists on a consecutive IP region and differs significantly from the others. We utilize a number of quantitative measures, including the flux-fluctuation law, the Markov state transition probability matrix, and predictability measures, to characterize the attack patterns in a comprehensive manner. A general finding is that the attack patterns possess high degrees of predictability, potentially paving the way to anticipating and, consequently, mitigating or even preventing large-scale cyberattacks using macroscopic approaches.

Supply-demand processes take place on a large variety of real-world networked systems ranging from power grids and the internet to social networking and urban systems. In a modern infrastructure, supply-demand systems are constantly expanding, leading to constant increase in load requirement for resources and consequently, to problems such as low efficiency, resource scarcity, and partial system failures. Under certain conditions global catastrophe on the scale of the whole system can occur through the dynamical process of cascading failures. We investigate optimization and resilience of time-varying supply-demand systems by constructing network models of such systems, where resources are transported from the supplier sites to users through various links. Here by optimization we mean minimization of the maximum load on links, and system resilience can be characterized using the cascading failure size of users who fail to connect with suppliers.

We consider two representative classes of supply schemes: load driven supply and fix fraction supply. Our findings are: (1) optimized systems are more robust since relatively smaller cascading failures occur when triggered by external perturbation to the links; (2) a large fraction of links can be free of load if resources are directed to transport through the shortest paths; (3) redundant links in the performance of the system can help to reroute the traffic but may undesirably transmit and enlarge the failure size of the system; (4) the patterns of cascading failures depend strongly upon the capacity of links; (5) the specific location of the trigger determines the specific route of cascading failure, but has little effect on the final cascading size; (6) system expansion typically reduces the efficiency; and (7) when the locations of the suppliers are optimized over a long expanding period, fewer suppliers are required. These results hold for heterogeneous networks in general, providing insights into designing optimal and resilient complex supply-demand systems that expand constantly in time.

Although insulin resistance in skeletal muscle is well-characterized, the role of circulating whole blood in the metabolic syndrome phenotype is not well understood. We set out to test the hypothesis that genes involved in inflammation, insulin signaling and mitochondrial function would be altered in expression in the whole blood of individuals with metabolic syndrome. We further wanted to examine whether similar relationships that we have found previously in skeletal muscle exist in peripheral whole blood cells. All subjects (n=184) were Latino descent from the Arizona Insulin Resistance registry. Subjects were classified based on the metabolic syndrome phenotype according to the National Cholesterol Education Program’s Adult Treatment Panel III. Of the 184 Latino subjects in the study, 74 were classified with the metabolic syndrome and 110 were without. Whole blood gene expression profiling was performed using the Agilent 4x44K Whole Human Genome Microarray. Whole blood microarray analysis identified 1,432 probes that were altered in expression ≥1.2 fold and P<0.05 after Benjamini-Hochberg in the metabolic syndrome subjects. KEGG pathway analysis revealed significant enrichment for pathways including ribosome, oxidative phosphorylation and MAPK signaling (all Benjamini-Hochberg P<0.05). Whole blood mRNA expression changes observed in the microarray data were confirmed by quantitative RT-PCR. Transcription factor binding motif enrichment analysis revealed E2F1, ELK1, NF-kappaB, STAT1 and STAT3 significantly enriched after Bonferroni correction (all P<0.05). The results of the present study demonstrate that whole blood is a useful tissue for studying the metabolic syndrome and its underlying insulin resistance although the relationship between blood and skeletal muscle differs.

An interesting occurrence of a Rossby wave breaking event observed during the VORCORE experiment is presented and explained. Twenty-seven balloons were launched inside the Antarctic polar vortex. Almost all of these balloons evolved in the stratosphere around 500K within the vortex, except the one launched on 28 October 2005. In this case, the balloon was caught within a tongue of high potential vorticity (PV), and was ejected from the polar vortex. The evolution of this event is studied for the period between 19 and 25 November 2005. It is found that at the beginning of this period, the polar vortex experienced distortions due to the presence of Rossby waves. Then, these waves break and a tongue of high PV develops. On 25 November, the tongue became separated from the vortex and the balloon was ejected into the surf zone. Lagrangian simulations demonstrate that the air masses surrounding the balloon after its ejection were originating from the vortex edge. The wave breaking and the development of the tongue are confined within a region where a planetary Quasi-Stationary Wave 1 (QSW1) induces wind speeds with weaker values. The QSW1 causes asymmetry in the wind speed and the horizontal PV gradient along the edge of the polar vortex, resulting in a localized jet. Rossby waves with smaller scales propagating on top of this jet amplify as they enter the jet exit region and then break. The role of the QSW1 on the formation of the weak flow conditions that caused the non-linear wave breaking observed near the vortex edge is confirmed by three-dimensional numerical simulations using forcing with and without the contribution of the QSW1.

Our previous studies show reduced abundance of the β-subunit of mitochondrial H+-ATP synthase (β-F1-ATPase) in skeletal muscle of obese individuals. The β-F1-ATPase forms the catalytic core of the ATP synthase, and it is critical for ATP production in muscle. The mechanism(s) impairing β-F1-ATPase metabolism in obesity, however, are not completely understood. First, we studied total muscle protein synthesis and the translation efficiency of β-F1-ATPase in obese (BMI, 36±1 kg/m²) and lean (BMI, 22±1 kg/m²) subjects. Both total protein synthesis (0.044±0.006 vs 0.066±0.006%·h^-1) and translation efficiency of β-F1-ATPase (0.0031±0.0007 vs 0.0073±0.0004) were lower in muscle from the obese subjects when compared to the lean controls (P<0.05). We then evaluated these same responses in a primary cell culture model, and tested the specific hypothesis that circulating non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA) in obesity play a role in the responses observed in humans. The findings on total protein synthesis and translation efficiency of β-F1-ATPase in primary myotubes cultured from a lean subject, and after exposure to NEFA extracted from serum of an obese subject, were similar to those obtained in humans. Among candidate microRNAs (i.e., non-coding RNAs regulating gene expression), we identified miR-127-5p in preventing the production of β-F1-ATPase. Muscle expression of miR-127-5p negatively correlated with β-F1-ATPase protein translation efficiency in humans (r = – 0.6744; P<0.01), and could be modeled in vitro by prolonged exposure of primary myotubes derived from the lean subject to NEFA extracted from the obese subject. On the other hand, locked nucleic acid inhibitor synthesized to target miR-127-5p significantly increased β-F1-ATPase translation efficiency in myotubes (0.6±0.1 vs 1.3±0.3, in control vs exposure to 50 nM inhibitor; P<0.05). Our experiments implicate circulating NEFA in obesity in suppressing muscle protein metabolism, and establish impaired β-F1-ATPase translation as an important consequence of obesity.

We sought to evaluate the reproducibility of a liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS)-based approach to measure the stable-isotope enrichment of in vivo-labeled muscle ATP synthase β subunit (β-F1-ATPase), a protein most directly involved in ATP production, and whose abundance is reduced under a variety of circumstances. Muscle was obtained from a rat infused with stable-isotope-labeled leucine. The muscle was homogenized, β-F1-ATPase immunoprecipitated, and the protein was resolved using 1D-SDS PAGE. Following trypsin digestion of the isolated protein, the resultant peptide mixtures were subjected to analysis by HPLC-ESI-MS/MS, which resulted in the detection of multiple β-F1-ATPase peptides. There were three β-F1-ATPase unique peptides with a leucine residue in the amino acid sequence, and which were detected with high intensity relative to other peptides and assigned with >95% probability to β-F1-ATPase. These peptides were specifically targeted for fragmentation to access their stable-isotope enrichment based on MS/MS peak areas calculated from extracted ion chromatographs for selected labeled and unlabeled fragment ions. Results showed best linearity (R[superscript 2] = 0.99) in the detection of MS/MS peak areas for both labeled and unlabeled fragment ions, over a wide range of amounts of injected protein, specifically for the β-F1-ATPase[subscript 134-143] peptide. Measured stable-isotope enrichment was highly reproducible for the β-F1-ATPase[subscript 134-143] peptide (CV = 2.9%). Further, using mixtures of synthetic labeled and unlabeled peptides we determined that there is an excellent linear relationship (R[superscript 2] = 0.99) between measured and predicted enrichment for percent enrichments ranging between 0.009% and 8.185% for the β-F1-ATPase[subscript 134-143] peptide. The described approach provides a reliable approach to measure the stable-isotope enrichment of in-vivo-labeled muscle β-F1-ATPase based on the determination of the enrichment of the β-F1-ATPase[subscript 134-143] peptide.

Background: Although the effect of the fat mass and obesity-associated (FTO) gene on adiposity is well established, there is a lack of evidence whether physical activity (PA) modifies the effect of FTO variants on obesity in Latino populations. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine PA influences and interactive effects between FTO variants and PA on measures of adiposity in Latinos.

Results: After controlling for age and sex, participants who did not engage in regular PA exhibited higher BMI, fat mass, HC, and WC with statistical significance (P < 0.001). Although significant associations between the three FTO genotypes and adiposity measures were found, none of the FTO genotype by PA interaction assessments revealed nominally significant associations. However, several of such interactive influences exhibited considerable trend towards association.

Conclusions: These data suggest that adiposity measures are associated with PA and FTO variants in Latinos, but the impact of their interactive influences on these obesity measures appear to be minimal. Future studies with large sample sizes may help to determine whether individuals with specific FTO variants exhibit differential responses to PA interventions.

Physical mechanisms of incongruency between observations and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model predictions are examined. Limitations of evaluation are constrained by (i) parameterizations of model physics, (ii) parameterizations of input data, (iii) model resolution, and (iv) flux observation resolution. Observations from a new 22.1-m flux tower situated within a residential neighborhood in Phoenix, Arizona, are utilized to evaluate the ability of the urbanized WRF to resolve finescale surface energy balance (SEB) when using the urban classes derived from the 30-m-resolution National Land Cover Database. Modeled SEB response to a large seasonal variation of net radiation forcing was tested during synoptically quiescent periods of high pressure in winter 2011 and premonsoon summer 2012. Results are presented from simulations employing five nested domains down to 333-m horizontal resolution. A comparative analysis of model cases testing parameterization of physical processes was done using four configurations of urban parameterization for the bulk urban scheme versus three representations with the Urban Canopy Model (UCM) scheme, and also for two types of planetary boundary layer parameterization: the local Mellor–Yamada–Janjić scheme and the nonlocal Yonsei University scheme. Diurnal variation in SEB constituent fluxes is examined in relation to surface-layer stability and modeled diagnostic variables. Improvement is found when adapting UCM for Phoenix with reduced errors in the SEB components. Finer model resolution is seen to have insignificant (<1 standard deviation) influence on mean absolute percent difference of 30-min diurnal mean SEB terms.