ASU Scholarship Showcase

Extreme events, a type of collective behavior in complex networked dynamical systems, often can have catastrophic consequences. To develop effective strategies to control extreme events is of fundamental importance and practical interest. Utilizing transportation dynamics on complex networks as a prototypical setting, we find that making the network “mobile” can effectively suppress extreme events. A striking, resonance-like phenomenon is uncovered, where an optimal degree of mobility exists for which the probability of extreme events is minimized. We derive an analytic theory to understand the mechanism of control at a detailed and quantitative level, and validate the theory numerically. Implications of our finding to current areas such as cybersecurity are discussed.

The relation between flux and fluctuation is fundamental to complex physical systems that support and transport flows. A recently obtained law predicts monotonous enhancement of fluctuation as the average flux is increased, which in principle is valid but only for large systems. For realistic complex systems of small sizes, this law breaks down when both the average flux and fluctuation become large. Here we demonstrate the failure of this law in small systems using real data and model complex networked systems, derive analytically a modified flux-fluctuation law, and validate it through computations of a large number of complex networked systems. Our law is more general in that its predictions agree with numerics and it reduces naturally to the previous law in the limit of large system size, leading to new insights into the flow dynamics in small-size complex systems with significant implications for the statistical and scaling behaviors of small systems, a topic of great recent interest.

Sensory systems encode both the static quality of a stimulus (e.g., color or shape) and its kinetics (e.g., speed and direction). The limits with which stimulus kinetics can be resolved are well understood in vision, audition, and somatosensation. However, the maximum temporal resolution of olfactory systems has not been accurately determined. Here, we probe the limits of temporal resolution in insect olfaction by delivering high frequency odor pulses and measuring sensory responses in the antennae. We show that transduction times and pulse tracking capabilities of olfactory receptor neurons are faster than previously reported. Once an odorant arrives at the boundary layer of the antenna, odor transduction can occur within less than 2 ms and fluctuating odor stimuli can be resolved at frequencies more than 100 Hz. Thus, insect olfactory receptor neurons can track stimuli of very short duration, as occur when their antennae encounter narrow filaments in an odor plume. These results provide a new upper bound to the kinetics of odor tracking in insect olfactory receptor neurons and to the latency of initial transduction events in olfaction.

Evolutionary dynamical models for cyclic competitions of three species (e.g., rock, paper, and scissors, or RPS) provide a paradigm, at the microscopic level of individual interactions, to address many issues in coexistence and biodiversity. Real ecosystems often involve competitions among more than three species. By extending the RPS game model to five (rock-paper-scissors-lizard-Spock, or RPSLS) mobile species, we uncover a fundamental type of mesoscopic interactions among subgroups of species. In particular, competitions at the microscopic level lead to the emergence of various local groups in different regions of the space, each involving three species. It is the interactions among the groups that fundamentally determine how many species can coexist. In fact, as the mobility is increased from zero, two transitions can occur: one from a five- to a three-species coexistence state and another from the latter to a uniform, single-species state. We develop a mean-field theory to show that, in order to understand the first transition, group interactions at the mesoscopic scale must be taken into account. Our findings suggest, more broadly, the importance of mesoscopic interactions in coexistence of great many species.

Background: Cancer diagnosis in both dogs and humans is complicated by the lack of a non-invasive diagnostic test. To meet this clinical need, we apply the recently developed immunosignature assay to spontaneous canine lymphoma as clinical proof-of-concept. Here we evaluate the immunosignature as a diagnostic for spontaneous canine lymphoma at both at initial diagnosis and evaluating the disease free interval following treatment.

Methods: Sera from dogs with confirmed lymphoma (B cell n = 38, T cell n = 11) and clinically normal dogs (n = 39) were analyzed. Serum antibody responses were characterized by analyzing the binding pattern, or immunosignature, of serum antibodies on a non-natural sequence peptide microarray. Peptides were selected and tested for the ability to distinguish healthy dogs from those with lymphoma and to distinguish lymphoma subtypes based on immunophenotype. The immunosignature of dogs with lymphoma were evaluated for individual signatures. Changes in the immunosignatures were evaluated following treatment and eventual relapse.

Results: Despite being a clonal disease, both an individual immunosignature and a generalized lymphoma immunosignature were observed in each dog. The general lymphoma immunosignature identified in the initial set of dogs (n = 32) was able to predict disease status in an independent set of dogs (n = 42, 97% accuracy). A separate immunosignature was able to distinguish the lymphoma based on immunophenotype (n = 25, 88% accuracy). The individual immunosignature was capable of confirming remission three months following diagnosis. Immunosignature at diagnosis was able to predict which dogs with B cell lymphoma would relapse in less than 120 days (n = 33, 97% accuracy).

Conclusion: We conclude that the immunosignature can serve as a multilevel diagnostic for canine, and potentially human, lymphoma.

Dynamical systems based on the minority game (MG) have been a paradigm for gaining significant insights into a variety of social and biological behaviors. Recently, a grouping phenomenon has been unveiled in MG systems of multiple resources (strategies) in which the strategies spontaneously break into an even number of groups, each exhibiting an identical oscillation pattern in the attendance of game players. Here we report our finding of spontaneous breakup of resources into three groups, each exhibiting period-three oscillations. An analysis is developed to understand the emergence of the striking phenomenon of triple grouping and period-three oscillations. In the presence of random disturbances, the triple-group/period-three state becomes transient, and we obtain explicit formula for the average transient lifetime using two methods of approximation. Our finding indicates that, period-three oscillation, regarded as one of the most fundamental behaviors in smooth nonlinear dynamical systems, can also occur in much more complex, evolutionary-game dynamical systems. Our result also provides a plausible insight for the occurrence of triple grouping observed, for example, in the U.S. housing market.

Understanding the dynamics of human movements is key to issues of significant current interest such as behavioral prediction, recommendation, and control of epidemic spreading. We collect and analyze big data sets of human movements in both cyberspace (through browsing of websites) and physical space (through mobile towers) and find a superlinear scaling relation between the mean frequency of visit〈f〉and its fluctuation σ : σ ∼〈f⟩^β with β ≈ 1.2. The probability distribution of the visiting frequency is found to be a stretched exponential function. We develop a model incorporating two essential ingredients, preferential return and exploration, and show that these are necessary for generating the scaling relation extracted from real data. A striking finding is that human movements in cyberspace and physical space are strongly correlated, indicating a distinctive behavioral identifying characteristic and implying that the behaviors in one space can be used to predict those in the other.

We know very little about how soil-borne pollutants such as selenium (Se) can impact pollinators, even though Se has contaminated soils and plants in areas where insect pollination can be critical to the functioning of both agricultural and natural ecosystems. Se can be biotransferred throughout the food web, but few studies have examined its effects on the insects that feed on Se-accumulating plants, particularly pollinators. In laboratory bioassays, we used proboscis extension reflex (PER) and taste perception to determine if the presence of Se affected the gustatory response of honey bee (Apis mellifera L., Hymenoptera: Apidae) foragers. Antennae and proboscises were stimulated with both organic (selenomethionine) and inorganic (selenate) forms of Se that commonly occur in Se-accumulating plants. Methionine was also tested. Each compound was dissolved in 1 M sucrose at 5 concentrations, with sucrose alone as a control. Antennal stimulation with selenomethionine and methionine reduced PER at higher concentrations. Selenate did not reduce gustatory behaviors. Two hours after being fed the treatments, bees were tested for sucrose response threshold. Bees fed selenate responded less to sucrose stimulation. Mortality was higher in bees chronically dosed with selenate compared with a single dose. Selenomethionine did not increase mortality except at the highest concentration. Methionine did not significantly impact survival. Our study has shown that bees fed selenate were less responsive to sucrose, which may lead to a reduction in incoming floral resources needed to support coworkers and larvae in the field. If honey bees forage on nectar containing Se (particularly selenate), reductions in population numbers may occur due to direct toxicity. Given that honey bees are willing to consume food resources containing Se and may not avoid Se compounds in the plant tissues on which they are foraging, they may suffer similar adverse effects as seen in other insect guilds.

Antigen-antibody complexes are central players in an effective immune response. However, finding those interactions relevant to a particular disease state can be arduous. Nonetheless many paths to discovery have been explored since deciphering these interactions can greatly facilitate the development of new diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines. In silico B cell epitope mapping approaches have been widely pursued, though success has not been consistent. Antibody mixtures in immune sera have been used as handles for biologically relevant antigens, but these and other experimental approaches have proven resource intensive and time consuming. In addition, these methods are often tailored to individual diseases or a specific proteome, rather than providing a universal platform. Most of these methods are not able to identify the specific antibody’s epitopes from unknown antigens, such as un-annotated neo antigens in cancer. Alternatively, a peptide library comprised of sequences unrestricted by naturally-found protein space provides for a universal search for mimotopes of an antibody’s epitope. Here we present the utility of such a non-natural random sequence library of 10,000 peptides physically addressed on a microarray for mimotope discovery without sequence information of the specific antigen. The peptide arrays were probed with serum from an antigen-immunized rabbit, or alternatively probed with serum pre-absorbed with the same immunizing antigen. With this positive and negative screening scheme, we identified the library-peptides as the mimotopes of the antigen. The unique library peptides were successfully used to isolate antigen-specific antibodies from complete immune serum. Sequence analysis of these peptides revealed the epitopes in the immunized antigen. We present this method as an inexpensive, efficient method for identifying mimotopes of any antibody’s targets. These mimotopes should be useful in defining both components of the antigen-antibody complex.

Resource allocation takes place in various types of real-world complex systems such as urban traffic, social services institutions, economical and ecosystems. Mathematically, the dynamical process of resource allocation can be modeled as minority games. Spontaneous evolution of the resource allocation dynamics, however, often leads to a harmful herding behavior accompanied by strong fluctuations in which a large majority of agents crowd temporarily for a few resources, leaving many others unused. Developing effective control methods to suppress and eliminate herding is an important but open problem. Here we develop a pinning control method, that the fluctuations of the system consist of intrinsic and systematic components allows us to design a control scheme with separated control variables. A striking finding is the universal existence of an optimal pinning fraction to minimize the variance of the system, regardless of the pinning patterns and the network topology. We carry out a generally applicable theory to explain the emergence of optimal pinning and to predict the dependence of the optimal pinning fraction on the network topology. Our work represents a general framework to deal with the broader problem of controlling collective dynamics in complex systems with potential applications in social, economical and political systems.