ASU Scholarship Showcase

Background: While there is ample evidence for health risks associated with heat and other extreme weather events today, little is known about the impact of weather patterns on population health in preindustrial societies.

Objective: To investigate the impact of weather patterns on population health in Sweden before and during industrialization.

Methods: We obtained records of monthly mortality and of monthly mean temperatures and precipitation for Skellefteå parish, northern Sweden, for the period 1800-1950. The associations between monthly total mortality, as well as monthly mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases, and monthly mean temperature and cumulative precipitation were modelled using a time series approach for three separate periods, 1800−1859, 1860-1909, and 1910-1950.

Results: We found higher temperatures and higher amounts of precipitation to be associated with lower mortality both in the medium term (same month and two-months lag) and in the long run (lag of six months up to a year). Similar patterns were found for mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases. Furthermore, the effect of temperature and precipitation decreased over time.

Conclusions: Higher temperature and precipitation amounts were associated with reduced death counts with a lag of up to 12 months. The decreased effect over time may be due to improvements in nutritional status, decreased infant deaths, and other changes in society that occurred in the course of the demographic and epidemiological transition.

Contribution: The study contributes to a better understanding of the complex relationship between weather and mortality and, in particular, historical weather-related mortality.

Background: Extreme heat is a public health challenge. The scarcity of directly comparable studies on the association of heat with morbidity and mortality and the inconsistent identification of threshold temperatures for severe impacts hampers the development of comprehensive strategies aimed at reducing adverse heat-health events.

Objectives: This quantitative study was designed to link temperature with mortality and morbidity events in Maricopa County, Arizona, USA, with a focus on the summer season.
Methods: Using Poisson regression models that controlled for temporal confounders, we assessed daily temperature–health associations for a suite of mortality and morbidity events, diagnoses, and temperature metrics. Minimum risk temperatures, increasing risk temperatures, and excess risk temperatures were statistically identified to represent different “trigger points” at which heat-health intervention measures might be activated.

Results: We found significant and consistent associations of high environmental temperature with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, heat-related mortality, and mortality resulting from conditions that are consequences of heat and dehydration. Hospitalizations and emergency department visits due to heat-related conditions and conditions associated with consequences of heat and dehydration were also strongly associated with high temperatures, and there were several times more of those events than there were deaths. For each temperature metric, we observed large contrasts in trigger points (up to 22°C) across multiple health events and diagnoses.

Conclusion: Consideration of multiple health events and diagnoses together with a comprehensive approach to identifying threshold temperatures revealed large differences in trigger points for possible interventions related to heat. Providing an array of heat trigger points applicable for different end-users may improve the public health response to a problem that is projected to worsen in the coming decades.

Background: Extreme heat is a leading weather-related cause of mortality in the United States, but little guidance is available regarding how temperature variable selection impacts heat–mortality relationships.
Objectives: We examined how the strength of the relationship between daily heat-related mortality and temperature varies as a function of temperature observation time, lag, and calculation method.
Methods: Long time series of daily mortality counts and hourly temperature for seven U.S. cities with different climates were examined using a generalized additive model. The temperature effect was modeled separately for each hour of the day (with up to 3-day lags) along with different methods of calculating daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperature. We estimated the temperature effect on mortality for each variable by comparing the 99th versus 85th temperature percentiles, as determined from the annual time series.

Results: In three northern cities (Boston, MA; Philadelphia, PA; and Seattle, WA) that appeared to have the greatest sensitivity to heat, hourly estimates were consistent with a diurnal pattern in the heat-mortality response, with strongest associations for afternoon or maximum temperature at lag 0 (day of death) or afternoon and evening of lag 1 (day before death). In warmer, southern cities, stronger associations were found with morning temperatures, but overall the relationships were weaker. The strongest temperature–mortality relationships were associated with maximum temperature, although mean temperature results were comparable.

Conclusions: There were systematic and substantial differences in the association between temperature and mortality based on the time and type of temperature observation. Because the strongest hourly temperature–mortality relationships were not always found at times typically associated with daily maximum temperatures, temperature variables should be selected independently for each study location. In general, heat-mortality was more closely coupled to afternoon and maximum temperatures in most cities we examined, particularly those typically prone to heat-related mortality.

The electronic band structure of MoS₂, MoSe₂, WS₂, and WSe₂, crystals has been studied at various hydrostatic pressures experimentally by photoreflectance (PR) spectroscopy and theoretically within the density functional theory (DFT). In the PR spectra direct optical transitions (A and B) have been clearly observed and pressure coefficients have been determined for these transitions to be: α_A = 2.0 ± 0.1 and α_B = 3.6 ± 0.1 meV/kbar for MoS₂, α_A = 2.3 ± 0.1 and α_B = 4.0 ± 0.1 meV/kbar for MoSe₂, α_A = 2.6 ± 0.1 and α_B = 4.1 ± 0.1 meV/kbar for WS₂, α_A = 3.4 ± 0.1 and α_B = 5.0 ± 0.5 meV/kbar for WSe₂. It has been found that these coefficients are in an excellent agreement with theoretical predictions. In addition, a comparative study of different computational DFT approaches has been performed and analyzed. For indirect gap the pressure coefficient have been determined theoretically to be −7.9, −5.51, −6.11, and −3.79, meV/kbar for MoS₂, MoSe₂, WS₂, and WSe₂, respectively. The negative values of this coefficients imply a narrowing of the fundamental band gap with the increase in hydrostatic pressure and a semiconductor to metal transition for MoS₂, MoSe₂, WS₂, and WSe₂, crystals at around 140, 180, 190, and 240 kbar, respectively.

Binary transition metal dichalcogenide monolayers share common properties such as a direct optical bandgap, spin-orbit splittings of hundreds of meV, light–matter interaction dominated by robust excitons and coupled spin-valley states. Here we demonstrate spin-orbit-engineering in Mo[_(1-x)]W_xSe₂ alloy monolayers for optoelectronics and applications based on spin- and valley-control. We probe the impact of the tuning of the conduction band spin-orbit spin-splitting on the bright versus dark exciton population. For MoSe₂ monolayers, the photoluminescence intensity decreases as a function of temperature by an order of magnitude (4–300 K), whereas for WSe₂ we measure surprisingly an order of magnitude increase. The ternary material shows a trend between these two extreme behaviors. We also show a non-linear increase of the valley polarization as a function of tungsten concentration, where 40% tungsten incorporation is sufficient to achieve valley polarization as high as in binary WSe₂.

We present two-dimensional Mg(OH)₂ sheets and their vertical heterojunctions with CVD-MoS₂ for the first time as flexible 2D insulators with anomalous lattice vibration and chemical and physical properties. New hydrothermal crystal growth technique enabled isolation of environmentally stable monolayer Mg(OH)₂ sheets. Raman spectroscopy and vibrational calculations reveal that the lattice vibrations of Mg(OH)₂ have fundamentally different signature peaks and dimensionality effects compared to other 2D material systems known to date. Sub-wavelength electron energy-loss spectroscopy measurements and theoretical calculations show that Mg(OH)₂ is a 6 eV direct-gap insulator in 2D, and its optical band gap displays strong band renormalization effects from monolayer to bulk, marking the first experimental confirmation of confinement effects in 2D insulators. Interestingly, 2D-Mg(OH)₂ sheets possess rather strong surface polarization (charge) effects which is in contrast to electrically neutral h-BN materials. Using 2D-Mg(OH)₂ sheets together with CVD-MoS₂ in the vertical stacking shows that a strong change transfer occurs from n-doped CVD-MoS₂ sheets to Mg(OH)₂, naturally depleting the semiconductor, pushing towards intrinsic doping limit and enhancing overall optical performance of 2D semiconductors. Results not only establish unusual confinement effects in 2D-Mg(OH)₂, but also offer novel 2D-insulating material with unique physical, vibrational, and chemical properties for potential applications in flexible optoelectronics.

Transition metal trichalcogenides form a class of layered materials with strong in-plane anisotropy. For example, titanium trisulfide (TiS₃) whiskers are made out of weakly interacting TiS₃ layers, where each layer is made of weakly interacting quasi-one-dimensional chains extending along the b axis. Here we establish the unusual vibrational properties of TiS₃ both experimentally and theoretically. Unlike other two-dimensional systems, the Raman active peaks of TiS₃ have only out-of-plane vibrational modes, and interestingly some of these vibrations involve unique rigid-chain vibrations and S–S molecular oscillations. High-pressure Raman studies further reveal that the A_g^S-S S-S molecular mode has an unconventional negative pressure dependence, whereas other peaks stiffen as anticipated. Various vibrational modes are doubly degenerate at ambient pressure, but the degeneracy is lifted at high pressures. These results establish the unusual vibrational properties of TiS₃ with strong in-plane anisotropy, and may have relevance to understanding of vibrational properties in other anisotropic two-dimensional material systems.

Black phosphorus attracts enormous attention as a promising layered material for electronic, optoelectronic and thermoelectric applications. Here we report large anisotropy in in-plane thermal conductivity of single-crystal black phosphorus nanoribbons along the zigzag and armchair lattice directions at variable temperatures. Thermal conductivity measurements were carried out under the condition of steady-state longitudinal heat flow using suspended-pad micro-devices. We discovered increasing thermal conductivity anisotropy, up to a factor of two, with temperatures above 100 K. A size effect in thermal conductivity was also observed in which thinner nanoribbons show lower thermal conductivity. Analysed with the relaxation time approximation model using phonon dispersions obtained based on density function perturbation theory, the high anisotropy is attributed mainly to direction-dependent phonon dispersion and partially to phonon–phonon scattering. Our results revealing the intrinsic, orientation-dependent thermal conductivity of black phosphorus are useful for designing devices, as well as understanding fundamental physical properties of layered materials.

Background: Most excess deaths that occur during extreme hot weather events do not have natural heat recorded as an underlying or contributing cause. This study aims to identify the specific individuals who died because of hot weather using only secondary data. A novel approach was developed in which the expected number of deaths was repeatedly sampled from all deaths that occurred during a hot weather event, and compared with deaths during a control period. The deaths were compared with respect to five factors known to be associated with hot weather mortality. Individuals were ranked by their presence in significant models over 100 trials of 10,000 repetitions. Those with the highest rankings were identified as probable excess deaths. Sensitivity analyses were performed on a range of model combinations. These methods were applied to a 2009 hot weather event in greater Vancouver, Canada.

Results: The excess deaths identified were sensitive to differences in model combinations, particularly between univariate and multivariate approaches. One multivariate and one univariate combination were chosen as the best models for further analyses. The individuals identified by multiple combinations suggest that marginalized populations in greater Vancouver are at higher risk of death during hot weather.

Conclusions: This study proposes novel methods for classifying specific deaths as expected or excess during a hot weather event. Further work is needed to evaluate performance of the methods in simulation studies and against clinically identified cases. If confirmed, these methods could be applied to a wide range of populations and events of interest.

Plasmonic and metamaterial based nano/micro-structured materials enable spectrally selective resonant absorption, where the resonant bandwidth and absorption intensity can be engineered by controlling the size and geometry of nanostructures. Here, we demonstrate a simple, lithography-free approach for obtaining a resonant and dynamically tunable broadband absorber based on vanadium dioxide (VO2) phase transition. Using planar layered thin film structures, where top layer is chosen to be an ultrathin (20 nm) VO2 film, we demonstrate broadband IR light absorption tuning (from similar to 90% to similar to 30% in measured absorption) over the entire mid-wavelength infrared spectrum. Our numerical and experimental results indicate that the bandwidth of the absorption bands can be controlled by changing the dielectric spacer layer thickness. Broadband tunable absorbers can find applications in absorption filters, thermal emitters, thermophotovoltaics, and sensing.