ASU Scholarship Showcase

Background: While there is ample evidence for health risks associated with heat and other extreme weather events today, little is known about the impact of weather patterns on population health in preindustrial societies.

Objective: To investigate the impact of weather patterns on population health in Sweden before and during industrialization.

Methods: We obtained records of monthly mortality and of monthly mean temperatures and precipitation for Skellefteå parish, northern Sweden, for the period 1800-1950. The associations between monthly total mortality, as well as monthly mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases, and monthly mean temperature and cumulative precipitation were modelled using a time series approach for three separate periods, 1800−1859, 1860-1909, and 1910-1950.

Results: We found higher temperatures and higher amounts of precipitation to be associated with lower mortality both in the medium term (same month and two-months lag) and in the long run (lag of six months up to a year). Similar patterns were found for mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases. Furthermore, the effect of temperature and precipitation decreased over time.

Conclusions: Higher temperature and precipitation amounts were associated with reduced death counts with a lag of up to 12 months. The decreased effect over time may be due to improvements in nutritional status, decreased infant deaths, and other changes in society that occurred in the course of the demographic and epidemiological transition.

Contribution: The study contributes to a better understanding of the complex relationship between weather and mortality and, in particular, historical weather-related mortality.

Background: A limitation of traditional outcome studies from behavioral interventions is the lack of attention given to evaluating the influence of moderating variables. This study examined possible moderation effect of baseline activity levels on physical activity change as a result of the Ready for Recess intervention.

Methods: Ready for Recess (August 2009-September 2010) was a controlled trial with twelve schools randomly assigned to one of four conditions: control group, staff supervision, equipment availability, and the combination of staff supervision and equipment availability. A total of 393 children (181 boys and 212 girls) from grades 3 through 6 (8–11 years old) were asked to wear an Actigraph monitor during school time on 4–5 days of the week. Assessments were conducted at baseline (before intervention) and post intervention (after intervention).

Results: Initial MVPA moderated the effect of Staff supervision (β = −0.47%; p < .05), but not Equipment alone and Staff + Equipment (p > .05). Participants in the Staff condition that were 1 standard deviation (SD) below the mean for baseline MVPA (classified as “low active”) had lower MVPA levels at post-intervention when compared with their low active peers in the control condition (Mean_diff = −10.8 ± 2.9%; p = .005). High active individuals (+1SD above the mean) in the Equipment treatment also had lower MVPA values at post-intervention when compared with their highly active peers in the control group (Mean_diff = −9.5 ± 2.9%; p = .009).

Conclusions: These results indicate that changes in MVPA levels at post-intervention were reduced in highly active participants when recess staff supervision was provided. In this study, initial MVPA moderated the effect of Staff supervision on children’s MVPA after 6 months of intervention. Staff training should include how to work with inactive youth but also how to assure that active children remain active.

Background: In the United States, approximately one in 110 pregnancies end in stillbirth affecting more than 26,000 women annually. Women experiencing stillbirth have a threefold greater risk of developing depressive symptoms compared to women experiencing live birth. Depression contributes negatively to health outcomes for both mothers and babies subsequent to stillbirth. Physical activity may improve depression in these women, however, little is known about acceptable physical activity interventions for women after stillbirth. This is the purpose of this descriptive exploratory study.

Methods: Eligible women were between ages 19 and 45, and experienced stillbirth within one year of the study. An online survey was used to ask questions related to 1) pregnancy and family information (i.e., time since stillbirth, weight gain during pregnancy, number of other children) 2) physical activity participation, 3) depressive symptomatology, and 4) demographics.

Results: One hundred seventy-five women participated in the study (M age = 31.26 ± 5.52). Women reported participating in regular physical activity (at least 150 minutes of moderate activity weekly) before (60%) and during (47%) their pregnancy, as well as after their stillbirth (61%). Only 37% were currently meeting physical activity recommendations. Approximately 88% reported depression (i.e., score of >10 on depression scale). When asked how women cope with depression, anxiety, or grief, 38% said physical activity. Of those that reported using physical activity to cope after stillbirth, they did so to help with depression (58%), weight loss (55%), and better overall physical health (52%). To cope with stillbirth, women used walking (67%), followed by jogging (35%), and yoga (23%). Women who participated in physical activity after stillbirth reported significantly lower depressive symptoms (M = 15.10, SD = 5.32) compared to women who did not participate in physical activity (M = 18.06, SD = 5.57; t = -3.45, p = .001).

Conclusions: Physical activity may serve as a unique opportunity to help women cope with the multiple mental sequelae after stillbirth. This study provides data to inform healthcare providers about the potential role of physical activity in bereavement and recovery for women who have experienced stillbirth. Additional research is necessary in this vulnerable population.

Background: The transition to parenthood is consistently associated with declines in physical activity. In particular, working parents are at risk for inactivity, but research exploring physical activity barriers and facilitators in this population has been scarce. The purpose of this study was to qualitatively examine perceptions of physical activity among working parents.

Methods: Working mothers (n = 13) and fathers (n = 12) were recruited to participate in one of four focus group sessions and discuss physical activity barriers and facilitators. Data were analyzed using immersion/crystallization in NVivo 10.

Results: Major themes for barriers included family responsibilities, guilt, lack of support, scheduling constraints, and work. Major themes for facilitators included being active with children or during children’s activities, being a role model for children, making time/prioritizing, benefits to health and family, and having support available. Several gender differences emerged within each theme, but overall both mothers and fathers reported their priorities had shifted to focus on family after becoming parents, and those who were fitting in physical activity had developed strategies that allowed them to balance their household and occupational responsibilities.

Conclusions: The results of this study suggest working mothers and fathers report similar physical activity barriers and facilitators and would benefit from interventions that teach strategies for overcoming barriers and prioritizing physical activity amidst the demands of parenthood. Future interventions might consider targeting mothers and fathers in tandem to create an optimally supportive environment in the home.

Background: Summer day camps (SDCs) serve 14 million children yearly in the U.S. and aim to provide participating children with 60 minutes of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). This study evaluated an intervention designed to increase the percent of children meeting this MVPA guideline.

Design: Two-group, pre-post quasi-experimental.

Setting/Participants: Twenty SDCs serving 1,830 children aged 5–12 years were assigned to MVPA intervention (n = 10) or healthy eating attention control (n = 10).

Intervention: The STEPs (Strategies to Enhance Practice) intervention is a capacity-building approach grounded in the Theory of Expanded, Extended and Enhanced Opportunities. Camp leaders and staff receive training to expand (e.g., introduction of activity breaks/active field trips), extend (e.g., schedule minimum of 3 hours/day for PA opportunities), and enhance (e.g., maximize MVPA children accumulate during schedule activity) activity opportunities. Camps in the comparison condition received support for improving the types of foods/beverages served.

Main Outcome Measures: Percent of children accumulating the 60min/d MVPA guideline at baseline (summer 2015) and post-test (summer 2016) measured via wrist-accelerometry.

Results: Multilevel logistic regression conducted fall 2016 indicated boys and girls attending intervention SDCs were 2.04 (95CI = 1.10,3.78) and 3.84 (95CI = 2.02,7.33) times more likely to meet the 60min/d guideline compared to boys and girls attending control SDCs, respectively. This corresponded to increases of +10.6% (78–89%) and +12.6% (69–82%) in the percentage of boys and girls meeting the guideline in intervention SDCs, respectively. Boys in comparison SDCs increased by +1.6% (81–83%) and girls decreased by -5.5% (76–71%). Process data indicated intervention SDCs successfully extended and enhanced PA opportunities, but were unable to expand PA opportunities, compared to control SDCs.

Conclusions: Although substantial proportions of children met the MVPA guideline at baseline, no SDCs ensured all children met the guideline. This intervention demonstrated that, with support, SDCs can help all children in attendance to accumulate their daily recommended 60min MVPA.

Background: Most excess deaths that occur during extreme hot weather events do not have natural heat recorded as an underlying or contributing cause. This study aims to identify the specific individuals who died because of hot weather using only secondary data. A novel approach was developed in which the expected number of deaths was repeatedly sampled from all deaths that occurred during a hot weather event, and compared with deaths during a control period. The deaths were compared with respect to five factors known to be associated with hot weather mortality. Individuals were ranked by their presence in significant models over 100 trials of 10,000 repetitions. Those with the highest rankings were identified as probable excess deaths. Sensitivity analyses were performed on a range of model combinations. These methods were applied to a 2009 hot weather event in greater Vancouver, Canada.

Results: The excess deaths identified were sensitive to differences in model combinations, particularly between univariate and multivariate approaches. One multivariate and one univariate combination were chosen as the best models for further analyses. The individuals identified by multiple combinations suggest that marginalized populations in greater Vancouver are at higher risk of death during hot weather.

Conclusions: This study proposes novel methods for classifying specific deaths as expected or excess during a hot weather event. Further work is needed to evaluate performance of the methods in simulation studies and against clinically identified cases. If confirmed, these methods could be applied to a wide range of populations and events of interest.

Background: Research provides strong evidence for improvements in depressive symptoms as a result of physical activity participation in many populations including pregnant and post-partum women. Little is known about how women who have experienced stillbirth (defined as fetal death at 20 or more weeks of gestation) feel about physical activity or use physical activity following this experience. The purpose of this study was to qualitatively explore women’s beliefs about physical activity following a stillbirth.

Methods: This was an exploratory qualitative research study. Participants were English-speaking women between the ages of 19 and 44 years who experienced a stillbirth in the past year from their recruitment date. Interviews were conducted over the phone or in-person based on participants’ preferences and location of residence and approximately 30–45 minutes in length.

Results: Twenty-four women participated in the study (M age = 33 ± 3.68 years; M time since stillbirth = 6.33 ± 3.06 months). Women’s beliefs about physical activity after stillbirth were coded into the following major themes: barriers to physical activity (emotional symptoms and lack of motivation, tired, lack of time, guilt, letting go of a pregnant body, and seeing other babies), benefits to physical activity (feeling better emotionally/mentally, helping women to cope or be therapeutic), importance of physical activity (working through grief, time for self), motivators for physical activity (body shape/weight, health, more children, be a role model, already an exerciser). Health care providers and their role in physical activity participation was also a major theme.

Conclusions: This is the first study to qualitatively explore beliefs about physical activity in women after a stillbirth. Women who have experienced stillbirth have unique beliefs about physical activity related to their experience with stillbirth. Findings from this study may help to improve the health and quality of life for women who have experienced stillbirth by utilizing physical activity as a strategy for improving depressive symptoms associated with experiencing a stillbirth. Future research in this area is highly warranted.

Background: Extreme heat is a public health challenge. The scarcity of directly comparable studies on the association of heat with morbidity and mortality and the inconsistent identification of threshold temperatures for severe impacts hampers the development of comprehensive strategies aimed at reducing adverse heat-health events.

Objectives: This quantitative study was designed to link temperature with mortality and morbidity events in Maricopa County, Arizona, USA, with a focus on the summer season.
Methods: Using Poisson regression models that controlled for temporal confounders, we assessed daily temperature–health associations for a suite of mortality and morbidity events, diagnoses, and temperature metrics. Minimum risk temperatures, increasing risk temperatures, and excess risk temperatures were statistically identified to represent different “trigger points” at which heat-health intervention measures might be activated.

Results: We found significant and consistent associations of high environmental temperature with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, heat-related mortality, and mortality resulting from conditions that are consequences of heat and dehydration. Hospitalizations and emergency department visits due to heat-related conditions and conditions associated with consequences of heat and dehydration were also strongly associated with high temperatures, and there were several times more of those events than there were deaths. For each temperature metric, we observed large contrasts in trigger points (up to 22°C) across multiple health events and diagnoses.

Conclusion: Consideration of multiple health events and diagnoses together with a comprehensive approach to identifying threshold temperatures revealed large differences in trigger points for possible interventions related to heat. Providing an array of heat trigger points applicable for different end-users may improve the public health response to a problem that is projected to worsen in the coming decades.

Background: Extreme heat is a leading weather-related cause of mortality in the United States, but little guidance is available regarding how temperature variable selection impacts heat–mortality relationships.
Objectives: We examined how the strength of the relationship between daily heat-related mortality and temperature varies as a function of temperature observation time, lag, and calculation method.
Methods: Long time series of daily mortality counts and hourly temperature for seven U.S. cities with different climates were examined using a generalized additive model. The temperature effect was modeled separately for each hour of the day (with up to 3-day lags) along with different methods of calculating daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperature. We estimated the temperature effect on mortality for each variable by comparing the 99th versus 85th temperature percentiles, as determined from the annual time series.

Results: In three northern cities (Boston, MA; Philadelphia, PA; and Seattle, WA) that appeared to have the greatest sensitivity to heat, hourly estimates were consistent with a diurnal pattern in the heat-mortality response, with strongest associations for afternoon or maximum temperature at lag 0 (day of death) or afternoon and evening of lag 1 (day before death). In warmer, southern cities, stronger associations were found with morning temperatures, but overall the relationships were weaker. The strongest temperature–mortality relationships were associated with maximum temperature, although mean temperature results were comparable.

Conclusions: There were systematic and substantial differences in the association between temperature and mortality based on the time and type of temperature observation. Because the strongest hourly temperature–mortality relationships were not always found at times typically associated with daily maximum temperatures, temperature variables should be selected independently for each study location. In general, heat-mortality was more closely coupled to afternoon and maximum temperatures in most cities we examined, particularly those typically prone to heat-related mortality.