ASU Scholarship Showcase

Extreme events, a type of collective behavior in complex networked dynamical systems, often can have catastrophic consequences. To develop effective strategies to control extreme events is of fundamental importance and practical interest. Utilizing transportation dynamics on complex networks as a prototypical setting, we find that making the network “mobile” can effectively suppress extreme events. A striking, resonance-like phenomenon is uncovered, where an optimal degree of mobility exists for which the probability of extreme events is minimized. We derive an analytic theory to understand the mechanism of control at a detailed and quantitative level, and validate the theory numerically. Implications of our finding to current areas such as cybersecurity are discussed.

The relation between flux and fluctuation is fundamental to complex physical systems that support and transport flows. A recently obtained law predicts monotonous enhancement of fluctuation as the average flux is increased, which in principle is valid but only for large systems. For realistic complex systems of small sizes, this law breaks down when both the average flux and fluctuation become large. Here we demonstrate the failure of this law in small systems using real data and model complex networked systems, derive analytically a modified flux-fluctuation law, and validate it through computations of a large number of complex networked systems. Our law is more general in that its predictions agree with numerics and it reduces naturally to the previous law in the limit of large system size, leading to new insights into the flow dynamics in small-size complex systems with significant implications for the statistical and scaling behaviors of small systems, a topic of great recent interest.

Evolutionary dynamical models for cyclic competitions of three species (e.g., rock, paper, and scissors, or RPS) provide a paradigm, at the microscopic level of individual interactions, to address many issues in coexistence and biodiversity. Real ecosystems often involve competitions among more than three species. By extending the RPS game model to five (rock-paper-scissors-lizard-Spock, or RPSLS) mobile species, we uncover a fundamental type of mesoscopic interactions among subgroups of species. In particular, competitions at the microscopic level lead to the emergence of various local groups in different regions of the space, each involving three species. It is the interactions among the groups that fundamentally determine how many species can coexist. In fact, as the mobility is increased from zero, two transitions can occur: one from a five- to a three-species coexistence state and another from the latter to a uniform, single-species state. We develop a mean-field theory to show that, in order to understand the first transition, group interactions at the mesoscopic scale must be taken into account. Our findings suggest, more broadly, the importance of mesoscopic interactions in coexistence of great many species.

Dynamical systems based on the minority game (MG) have been a paradigm for gaining significant insights into a variety of social and biological behaviors. Recently, a grouping phenomenon has been unveiled in MG systems of multiple resources (strategies) in which the strategies spontaneously break into an even number of groups, each exhibiting an identical oscillation pattern in the attendance of game players. Here we report our finding of spontaneous breakup of resources into three groups, each exhibiting period-three oscillations. An analysis is developed to understand the emergence of the striking phenomenon of triple grouping and period-three oscillations. In the presence of random disturbances, the triple-group/period-three state becomes transient, and we obtain explicit formula for the average transient lifetime using two methods of approximation. Our finding indicates that, period-three oscillation, regarded as one of the most fundamental behaviors in smooth nonlinear dynamical systems, can also occur in much more complex, evolutionary-game dynamical systems. Our result also provides a plausible insight for the occurrence of triple grouping observed, for example, in the U.S. housing market.

Understanding the dynamics of human movements is key to issues of significant current interest such as behavioral prediction, recommendation, and control of epidemic spreading. We collect and analyze big data sets of human movements in both cyberspace (through browsing of websites) and physical space (through mobile towers) and find a superlinear scaling relation between the mean frequency of visit〈f〉and its fluctuation σ : σ ∼〈f⟩^β with β ≈ 1.2. The probability distribution of the visiting frequency is found to be a stretched exponential function. We develop a model incorporating two essential ingredients, preferential return and exploration, and show that these are necessary for generating the scaling relation extracted from real data. A striking finding is that human movements in cyberspace and physical space are strongly correlated, indicating a distinctive behavioral identifying characteristic and implying that the behaviors in one space can be used to predict those in the other.

We investigate near-field radiative heat transfer between Indium Tin Oxide (ITO) nanowire arrays which behave as type 1 and 2 hyperbolic metamaterials. Using spatial dispersion dependent effective medium theory to model the dielectric function of the nanowires, the impact of filling fraction on the heat transfer is analyzed. Depending on the filling fraction, it is possible to achieve both types of hyperbolic modes. At 150 nm vacuum gap, the heat transfer between the nanowires with 0.5 filling fraction can be 11 times higher than that between two bulk ITOs. For vacuum gaps less than 150 nm the heat transfer increases as the filling fraction decreases. Results obtained from this study will facilitate applications of ITO nanowires as hyperbolic metamaterials for energy systems.

A film-coupled metamaterial structure is numerically investigated for enhancing the light absorption in an ultrathin photovoltaic layer of crystalline gallium arsenide (GaAs). The top subwavelength concave grating and the bottom metallic film could not only effectively trap light with the help of wave interference and magnetic resonance effects excited above the bandgap, but also practically serve as electrical contacts for photon-generated charge collection. The energy absorbed by the active layer is greatly enhanced with the help of the film-coupled metamaterial structure, resulting in significant improvement on the short-circuit current density by three times over a free-standing GaAs layer at the same thickness. The performance of the proposed light trapping structure is demonstrated to be little affected by the grating ridge width considering the geometric tolerance during fabrication. The optical absorption at oblique incidences also shows direction-insensitive behavior, which is highly desired for efficiently converting off-normal sunlight to electricity. The results would facilitate the development of next-generation ultrathin solar cells with lower cost and higher efficiency.

In this work, we report the design of a wavelength-tunable infrared metamaterial by tailoring magnetic resonance condition with the phase transition of vanadium dioxide (VO₂). Numerical simulation based on the finite-difference time-domain method shows a broad absorption peak at the wavelength of 10.9 μm when VO₂ is a metal, but it shifts to 15.1 μm when VO₂ changes to dielectric phase below its phase transition temperature of 68 °C. The large tunability of 38.5% in the resonance wavelength stems from the different excitation conditions of magnetic resonance mediated by plasmon in metallic VO₂ but optical phonons in dielectric VO₂. The physical mechanism is elucidated with the aid of electromagnetic field distribution at the resonance wavelengths. A hybrid magnetic resonance mode due to the plasmon-phonon coupling is also discussed. The results here would be beneficial for active control of thermal radiation in novel electronic, optical, and thermal devices.

Resource allocation takes place in various types of real-world complex systems such as urban traffic, social services institutions, economical and ecosystems. Mathematically, the dynamical process of resource allocation can be modeled as minority games. Spontaneous evolution of the resource allocation dynamics, however, often leads to a harmful herding behavior accompanied by strong fluctuations in which a large majority of agents crowd temporarily for a few resources, leaving many others unused. Developing effective control methods to suppress and eliminate herding is an important but open problem. Here we develop a pinning control method, that the fluctuations of the system consist of intrinsic and systematic components allows us to design a control scheme with separated control variables. A striking finding is the universal existence of an optimal pinning fraction to minimize the variance of the system, regardless of the pinning patterns and the network topology. We carry out a generally applicable theory to explain the emergence of optimal pinning and to predict the dependence of the optimal pinning fraction on the network topology. Our work represents a general framework to deal with the broader problem of controlling collective dynamics in complex systems with potential applications in social, economical and political systems.

Background: Most excess deaths that occur during extreme hot weather events do not have natural heat recorded as an underlying or contributing cause. This study aims to identify the specific individuals who died because of hot weather using only secondary data. A novel approach was developed in which the expected number of deaths was repeatedly sampled from all deaths that occurred during a hot weather event, and compared with deaths during a control period. The deaths were compared with respect to five factors known to be associated with hot weather mortality. Individuals were ranked by their presence in significant models over 100 trials of 10,000 repetitions. Those with the highest rankings were identified as probable excess deaths. Sensitivity analyses were performed on a range of model combinations. These methods were applied to a 2009 hot weather event in greater Vancouver, Canada.

Results: The excess deaths identified were sensitive to differences in model combinations, particularly between univariate and multivariate approaches. One multivariate and one univariate combination were chosen as the best models for further analyses. The individuals identified by multiple combinations suggest that marginalized populations in greater Vancouver are at higher risk of death during hot weather.

Conclusions: This study proposes novel methods for classifying specific deaths as expected or excess during a hot weather event. Further work is needed to evaluate performance of the methods in simulation studies and against clinically identified cases. If confirmed, these methods could be applied to a wide range of populations and events of interest.