ASU Scholarship Showcase

High-resolution, global quantification of fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions is emerging as a critical need in carbon cycle science and climate policy. We build upon a previously developed fossil fuel data assimilation system (FFDAS) for estimating global high-resolution fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions. We have improved the underlying observationally based data sources, expanded the approach through treatment of separate emitting sectors including a new pointwise database of global power plants, and extended the results to cover a 1997 to 2010 time series at a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Long-term trend analysis of the resulting global emissions shows subnational spatial structure in large active economies such as the United States, China, and India. These three countries, in particular, show different long-term trends and exploration of the trends in nighttime lights, and population reveal a decoupling of population and emissions at the subnational level. Analysis of shorter-term variations reveals the impact of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis with widespread negative emission anomalies across the U.S. and Europe. We have used a center of mass (CM) calculation as a compact metric to express the time evolution of spatial patterns in fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions. The global emission CM has moved toward the east and somewhat south between 1997 and 2010, driven by the increase in emissions in China and South Asia over this time period. Analysis at the level of individual countries reveals per capita CO[subscript 2] emission migration in both Russia and India. The per capita emission CM holds potential as a way to succinctly analyze subnational shifts in carbon intensity over time. Uncertainties are generally lower than the previous version of FFDAS due mainly to an improved nightlight data set.

Background: An accurate method that can diagnose and predict lupus and its neuropsychiatric manifestations is essential since currently there are no reliable methods. Autoantibodies to a varied panel of antigens in the body are characteristic of lupus. In this study we investigated whether serum autoantibody binding patterns on random-sequence peptide microarrays (immunosignaturing) can be used for diagnosing and predicting the onset of lupus and its central nervous system (CNS) manifestations. We also tested the techniques for identifying potentially pathogenic autoantibodies in CNS-Lupus. We used the well-characterized MRL/lpr lupus animal model in two studies as a first step to develop and evaluate future studies in humans.

Results: In study one we identified possible diagnostic peptides for both lupus and altered behavior in the forced swim test. When comparing the results of study one to that of study two (carried out in a similar manner), we further identified potential peptides that may be diagnostic and predictive of both lupus and altered behavior in the forced swim test. We also characterized five potentially pathogenic brain-reactive autoantibodies, as well as suggested possible brain targets.

Conclusions: These results indicate that immunosignaturing could predict and diagnose lupus and its CNS manifestations. It can also be used to characterize pathogenic autoantibodies, which may help to better understand the underlying mechanisms of CNS-Lupus.

Large urban emissions of greenhouse gases result in large atmospheric enhancements relative to background that are easily measured. Using CO₂ mole fractions and Δ¹⁴C and δ¹³C values of CO₂ in the Los Angeles megacity observed in inland Pasadena (2006–2013) and coastal Palos Verdes peninsula (autumn 2009–2013), we have determined time series for CO₂ contributions from fossil fuel combustion (C_ff) for both sites and broken those down into contributions from petroleum and/or gasoline and natural gas burning for Pasadena. We find a 10 % reduction in Pasadena C_ff during the Great Recession of 2008–2010, which is consistent with the bottom-up inventory determined by the California Air Resources Board. The isotopic variations and total atmospheric CO₂ from our observations are used to infer seasonality of natural gas and petroleum combustion. The trend of CO₂ contributions to the atmosphere from natural gas combustion is out of phase with the seasonal cycle of total natural gas combustion seasonal patterns in bottom-up inventories but is consistent with the seasonality of natural gas usage by the area's electricity generating power plants. For petroleum, the inferred seasonality of CO₂ contributions from burning petroleum is delayed by several months relative to usage indicated by statewide gasoline taxes. Using the high-resolution Hestia-LA data product to compare C_ff from parts of the basin sampled by winds at different times of year, we find that variations in observed fossil fuel CO₂ reflect seasonal variations in wind direction. The seasonality of the local CO₂ excess from fossil fuel combustion along the coast, on Palos Verdes peninsula, is higher in autumn and winter than spring and summer, almost completely out of phase with that from Pasadena, also because of the annual variations of winds in the region. Variations in fossil fuel CO₂ signals are consistent with sampling the bottom-up Hestia-LA fossil CO₂ emissions product for sub-city source regions in the LA megacity domain when wind directions are considered.

Gas seeps emanating from Yanartaş (Chimera), Turkey, have been documented for thousands of years. Active serpentinization produces hydrogen and a range of carbon gases that may provide fuel for life. Here we report a newly discovered, ephemeral fluid seep emanating from a small gas vent at Yanartaş. Fluids and biofilms were sampled at the source and points downstream. We describe site conditions, and provide microbiological data in the form of enrichment cultures, Scanning electron microscopy (SEM), carbon and nitrogen isotopic composition of solids, and PCR screens of nitrogen cycle genes. Source fluids are pH 11.95, with a Ca:Mg of ~200, and sediments under the ignited gas seep measure 60°C. Collectively, these data suggest the fluid is the product of active serpentinization at depth. Source sediments are primarily calcite and alteration products (chlorite and montmorillonite). Downstream, biofilms are mixed with montmorillonite. SEM shows biofilms distributed homogeneously with carbonates. Organic carbon accounts for 60% of the total carbon at the source, decreasing downstream to <15% as inorganic carbon precipitates. δ¹³C ratios of the organic carbon fraction of solids are depleted (−25 to −28‰) relative to the carbonates (−11 to −20‰). We conclude that heterotrophic processes are dominant throughout the surface ecosystem, and carbon fixation may be key down channel. δ¹⁵N ratios ~3‰, and absence of nifH in extracted DNA suggest that nitrogen fixation is not occurring in sediments. However, the presence of narG and nirS at most locations and in enrichments indicates genomic potential for nitrate and nitrite reduction. This small seep with shallow run-off is likely ephemeral, but abundant preserved microterracettes in the outflow and the surrounding area suggest it has been present for some time. This site and others like it present an opportunity for investigations of preserved deep biosphere signatures, and subsurface-surface interactions.

Atmospheric CO₂ inversions estimate surface carbon fluxes from an optimal fit to atmospheric CO₂ measurements, usually including prior constraints on the flux estimates. Eleven sets of carbon flux estimates are compared, generated by different inversions systems that vary in their inversions methods, choice of atmospheric data, transport model and prior information. The inversions were run for at least 5 yr in the period between 1990 and 2010. Mean fluxes for 2001–2004, seasonal cycles, interannual variability and trends are compared for the tropics and northern and southern extra-tropics, and separately for land and ocean. Some continental/basin-scale subdivisions are also considered where the atmospheric network is denser. Four-year mean fluxes are reasonably consistent across inversions at global/latitudinal scale, with a large total (land plus ocean) carbon uptake in the north (−3.4 Pg C yr^-1 (±0.5 Pg C yr^-1 standard deviation), with slightly more uptake over land than over ocean), a significant although more variable source over the tropics (1.6 ± 0.9 Pg C yr^-1) and a compensatory sink of similar magnitude in the south (−1.4 ± 0.5 Pg C yr^-1) corresponding mainly to an ocean sink. Largest differences across inversions occur in the balance between tropical land sources and southern land sinks. Interannual variability (IAV) in carbon fluxes is larger for land than ocean regions (standard deviation around 1.06 versus 0.33 Pg C yr[superscript −1] for the 1996–2007 period), with much higher consistency among the inversions for the land. While the tropical land explains most of the IAV (standard deviation ~ 0.65 Pg C yr^-1), the northern and southern land also contribute (standard deviation ~ 0.39 Pg C yr^-1). Most inversions tend to indicate an increase of the northern land carbon uptake from late 1990s to 2008 (around 0.1 Pg C yr^-1, predominantly in North Asia. The mean seasonal cycle appears to be well constrained by the atmospheric data over the northern land (at the continental scale), but still highly dependent on the prior flux seasonality over the ocean. Finally we provide recommendations to interpret the regional fluxes, along with the uncertainty estimates.

This paper presents an analysis of methane emissions from the Los Angeles Basin at monthly timescales across a 4-year time period – from September 2011 to August 2015. Using observations acquired by a ground-based near-infrared remote sensing instrument on Mount Wilson, California, combined with atmospheric CH₄–CO₂ tracer–tracer correlations, we observed −18 to +22 % monthly variability in CH₄ : CO₂ from the annual mean in the Los Angeles Basin. Top-down estimates of methane emissions for the basin also exhibit significant monthly variability (−19 to +31 % from annual mean and a maximum month-to-month change of 47 %). During this period, methane emissions consistently peaked in the late summer/early fall and winter. The estimated annual methane emissions did not show a statistically significant trend over the 2011 to 2015 time period.

Recent infectious outbreaks highlight the need for platform technologies that can be quickly deployed to develop therapeutics needed to contain the outbreak. We present a simple concept for rapid development of new antimicrobials. The goal was to produce in as little as one week thousands of doses of an intervention for a new pathogen. We tested the feasibility of a system based on antimicrobial synbodies. The system involves creating an array of 100 peptides that have been selected for broad capability to bind and/or kill viruses and bacteria. The peptides are pre-screened for low cell toxicity prior to large scale synthesis. Any pathogen is then assayed on the chip to find peptides that bind or kill it. Peptides are combined in pairs as synbodies and further screened for activity and toxicity. The lead synbody can be quickly produced in large scale, with completion of the entire process in one week.

One of the gravest dangers facing cancer patients is an extended symptom-free lull between tumor initiation and the first diagnosis. Detection of tumors is critical for effective intervention. Using the body’s immune system to detect and amplify tumor-specific signals may enable detection of cancer using an inexpensive immunoassay. Immunosignatures are one such assay: they provide a map of antibody interactions with random-sequence peptides. They enable detection of disease-specific patterns using classic train/test methods. However, to date, very little effort has gone into extracting information from the sequence of peptides that interact with disease-specific antibodies. Because it is difficult to represent all possible antigen peptides in a microarray format, we chose to synthesize only 330,000 peptides on a single immunosignature microarray. The 330,000 random-sequence peptides on the microarray represent 83% of all tetramers and 27% of all pentamers, creating an unbiased but substantial gap in the coverage of total sequence space. We therefore chose to examine many relatively short motifs from these random-sequence peptides. Time-variant analysis of recurrent subsequences provided a means to dissect amino acid sequences from the peptides while simultaneously retaining the antibody–peptide binding intensities. We first used a simple experiment in which monoclonal antibodies with known linear epitopes were exposed to these random-sequence peptides, and their binding intensities were used to create our algorithm. We then demonstrated the performance of the proposed algorithm by examining immunosignatures from patients with Glioblastoma multiformae (GBM), an aggressive form of brain cancer. Eight different frameshift targets were identified from the random-sequence peptides using this technique. If immune-reactive antigens can be identified using a relatively simple immune assay, it might enable a diagnostic test with sufficient sensitivity to detect tumors in a clinically useful way.

Background: High-throughput technologies such as DNA, RNA, protein, antibody and peptide microarrays are often used to examine differences across drug treatments, diseases, transgenic animals, and others. Typically one trains a classification system by gathering large amounts of probe-level data, selecting informative features, and classifies test samples using a small number of features. As new microarrays are invented, classification systems that worked well for other array types may not be ideal. Expression microarrays, arguably one of the most prevalent array types, have been used for years to help develop classification algorithms. Many biological assumptions are built into classifiers that were designed for these types of data. One of the more problematic is the assumption of independence, both at the probe level and again at the biological level. Probes for RNA transcripts are designed to bind single transcripts. At the biological level, many genes have dependencies across transcriptional pathways where co-regulation of transcriptional units may make many genes appear as being completely dependent. Thus, algorithms that perform well for gene expression data may not be suitable when other technologies with different binding characteristics exist. The immunosignaturing microarray is based on complex mixtures of antibodies binding to arrays of random sequence peptides. It relies on many-to-many binding of antibodies to the random sequence peptides. Each peptide can bind multiple antibodies and each antibody can bind multiple peptides. This technology has been shown to be highly reproducible and appears promising for diagnosing a variety of disease states. However, it is not clear what is the optimal classification algorithm for analyzing this new type of data.

Results: We characterized several classification algorithms to analyze immunosignaturing data. We selected several datasets that range from easy to difficult to classify, from simple monoclonal binding to complex binding patterns in asthma patients. We then classified the biological samples using 17 different classification algorithms. Using a wide variety of assessment criteria, we found ‘Naïve Bayes’ far more useful than other widely used methods due to its simplicity, robustness, speed and accuracy.

Conclusions: ‘Naïve Bayes’ algorithm appears to accommodate the complex patterns hidden within multilayered immunosignaturing microarray data due to its fundamental mathematical properties.

Attributing observed CO2 variations to human or natural cause is critical to deducing and tracking emissions from observations. We have used in situ CO2, CO, and planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) measurements recorded during the CalNex-LA (CARB et al., 2008) ground campaign of 15 May-15 June 2010, in Pasadena, CA, to deduce the diurnally varying anthropogenic component of observed CO2 in the megacity of Los Angeles (LA). This affordable and simple technique, validated by carbon isotope observations and WRF-STILT (Weather Research and Forecasting model - Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport model) predictions, is shown to robustly attribute observed CO2 variation to anthropogenic or biogenic origin over the entire diurnal cycle. During CalNex-LA, local fossil fuel combustion contributed up to similar to 50% of the observed CO2 enhancement overnight, and similar to 100% of the enhancement near midday. This suggests that sufficiently accurate total column CO2 observations recorded near midday, such as those from the GOSAT or OCO-2 satellites, can potentially be used to track anthropogenic emissions from the LA megacity.