ASU Scholarship Showcase

High-resolution, global quantification of fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions is emerging as a critical need in carbon cycle science and climate policy. We build upon a previously developed fossil fuel data assimilation system (FFDAS) for estimating global high-resolution fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions. We have improved the underlying observationally based data sources, expanded the approach through treatment of separate emitting sectors including a new pointwise database of global power plants, and extended the results to cover a 1997 to 2010 time series at a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Long-term trend analysis of the resulting global emissions shows subnational spatial structure in large active economies such as the United States, China, and India. These three countries, in particular, show different long-term trends and exploration of the trends in nighttime lights, and population reveal a decoupling of population and emissions at the subnational level. Analysis of shorter-term variations reveals the impact of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis with widespread negative emission anomalies across the U.S. and Europe. We have used a center of mass (CM) calculation as a compact metric to express the time evolution of spatial patterns in fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions. The global emission CM has moved toward the east and somewhat south between 1997 and 2010, driven by the increase in emissions in China and South Asia over this time period. Analysis at the level of individual countries reveals per capita CO[subscript 2] emission migration in both Russia and India. The per capita emission CM holds potential as a way to succinctly analyze subnational shifts in carbon intensity over time. Uncertainties are generally lower than the previous version of FFDAS due mainly to an improved nightlight data set.

It is known that in classical fluids turbulence typically occurs at high Reynolds numbers. But can turbulence occur at low Reynolds numbers? Here we investigate the transition to turbulence in the classic Taylor-Couette system in which the rotating fluids are manufactured ferrofluids with magnetized nanoparticles embedded in liquid carriers. We find that, in the presence of a magnetic field transverse to the symmetry axis of the system, turbulence can occur at Reynolds numbers that are at least one order of magnitude smaller than those in conventional fluids. This is established by extensive computational ferrohydrodynamics through a detailed investigation of transitions in the flow structure, and characterization of behaviors of physical quantities such as the energy, the wave number, and the angular momentum through the bifurcations. A finding is that, as the magnetic field is increased, onset of turbulence can be determined accurately and reliably. Our results imply that experimental investigation of turbulence may be feasible by using ferrofluids. Our study of transition to and evolution of turbulence in the Taylor-Couette ferrofluidic flow system provides insights into the challenging problem of turbulence control.

A relatively unexplored issue in cybersecurity science and engineering is whether there exist intrinsic patterns of cyberattacks. Conventional wisdom favors absence of such patterns due to the overwhelming complexity of the modern cyberspace. Surprisingly, through a detailed analysis of an extensive data set that records the time-dependent frequencies of attacks over a relatively wide range of consecutive IP addresses, we successfully uncover intrinsic spatiotemporal patterns underlying cyberattacks, where the term “spatio” refers to the IP address space. In particular, we focus on analyzing macroscopic properties of the attack traffic flows and identify two main patterns with distinct spatiotemporal characteristics: deterministic and stochastic. Strikingly, there are very few sets of major attackers committing almost all the attacks, since their attack “fingerprints” and target selection scheme can be unequivocally identified according to the very limited number of unique spatiotemporal characteristics, each of which only exists on a consecutive IP region and differs significantly from the others. We utilize a number of quantitative measures, including the flux-fluctuation law, the Markov state transition probability matrix, and predictability measures, to characterize the attack patterns in a comprehensive manner. A general finding is that the attack patterns possess high degrees of predictability, potentially paving the way to anticipating and, consequently, mitigating or even preventing large-scale cyberattacks using macroscopic approaches.

Supply-demand processes take place on a large variety of real-world networked systems ranging from power grids and the internet to social networking and urban systems. In a modern infrastructure, supply-demand systems are constantly expanding, leading to constant increase in load requirement for resources and consequently, to problems such as low efficiency, resource scarcity, and partial system failures. Under certain conditions global catastrophe on the scale of the whole system can occur through the dynamical process of cascading failures. We investigate optimization and resilience of time-varying supply-demand systems by constructing network models of such systems, where resources are transported from the supplier sites to users through various links. Here by optimization we mean minimization of the maximum load on links, and system resilience can be characterized using the cascading failure size of users who fail to connect with suppliers.

We consider two representative classes of supply schemes: load driven supply and fix fraction supply. Our findings are: (1) optimized systems are more robust since relatively smaller cascading failures occur when triggered by external perturbation to the links; (2) a large fraction of links can be free of load if resources are directed to transport through the shortest paths; (3) redundant links in the performance of the system can help to reroute the traffic but may undesirably transmit and enlarge the failure size of the system; (4) the patterns of cascading failures depend strongly upon the capacity of links; (5) the specific location of the trigger determines the specific route of cascading failure, but has little effect on the final cascading size; (6) system expansion typically reduces the efficiency; and (7) when the locations of the suppliers are optimized over a long expanding period, fewer suppliers are required. These results hold for heterogeneous networks in general, providing insights into designing optimal and resilient complex supply-demand systems that expand constantly in time.

Large urban emissions of greenhouse gases result in large atmospheric enhancements relative to background that are easily measured. Using CO₂ mole fractions and Δ¹⁴C and δ¹³C values of CO₂ in the Los Angeles megacity observed in inland Pasadena (2006–2013) and coastal Palos Verdes peninsula (autumn 2009–2013), we have determined time series for CO₂ contributions from fossil fuel combustion (C_ff) for both sites and broken those down into contributions from petroleum and/or gasoline and natural gas burning for Pasadena. We find a 10 % reduction in Pasadena C_ff during the Great Recession of 2008–2010, which is consistent with the bottom-up inventory determined by the California Air Resources Board. The isotopic variations and total atmospheric CO₂ from our observations are used to infer seasonality of natural gas and petroleum combustion. The trend of CO₂ contributions to the atmosphere from natural gas combustion is out of phase with the seasonal cycle of total natural gas combustion seasonal patterns in bottom-up inventories but is consistent with the seasonality of natural gas usage by the area's electricity generating power plants. For petroleum, the inferred seasonality of CO₂ contributions from burning petroleum is delayed by several months relative to usage indicated by statewide gasoline taxes. Using the high-resolution Hestia-LA data product to compare C_ff from parts of the basin sampled by winds at different times of year, we find that variations in observed fossil fuel CO₂ reflect seasonal variations in wind direction. The seasonality of the local CO₂ excess from fossil fuel combustion along the coast, on Palos Verdes peninsula, is higher in autumn and winter than spring and summer, almost completely out of phase with that from Pasadena, also because of the annual variations of winds in the region. Variations in fossil fuel CO₂ signals are consistent with sampling the bottom-up Hestia-LA fossil CO₂ emissions product for sub-city source regions in the LA megacity domain when wind directions are considered.

Myoelectric artificial limbs can significantly advance the state of the art in prosthetics, since they can be used to control mechatronic devices through muscular activity in a way that mimics how the subjects used to activate their muscles before limb loss. However, surveys indicate that dissatisfaction with the functionality of terminal devices underlies the widespread abandonment of prostheses. We believe that one key factor to improve acceptability of prosthetic devices is to attain human likeness of prosthesis movements, a goal which is being pursued by research on social and human–robot interactions. Therefore, to reduce early abandonment of terminal devices, we propose that controllers should be designed so as to ensure effective task accomplishment in a natural fashion. In this work, we have analyzed and compared the performance of three types of myoelectric controller algorithms based on surface electromyography to control an underactuated and multi-degrees of freedom prosthetic hand, the SoftHand Pro.

The goal of the present study was to identify the myoelectric algorithm that best mimics the native hand movements. As a preliminary step, we first quantified the repeatability of the SoftHand Pro finger movements and identified the electromyographic recording sites for able-bodied individuals with the highest signal-to-noise ratio from two pairs of muscles, i.e., flexor digitorum superficialis/extensor digitorum communis, and flexor carpi radialis/extensor carpi ulnaris. Able-bodied volunteers were then asked to execute reach-to-grasp movements, while electromyography signals were recorded from flexor digitorum superficialis/extensor digitorum communis as this was identified as the muscle pair characterized by high signal-to-noise ratio and intuitive control. Subsequently, we tested three myoelectric controllers that mapped electromyography signals to position of the SoftHand Pro. We found that a differential electromyography-to-position mapping ensured the highest coherence with hand movements. Our results represent a first step toward a more effective and intuitive control of myoelectric hand prostheses.

Introduction: Options currently available to individuals with upper limb loss range from prosthetic hands that can perform many movements, but require more cognitive effort to control, to simpler terminal devices with limited functional abilities. We attempted to address this issue by designing a myoelectric control system to modulate prosthetic hand posture and digit force distribution.

Methods: We recorded surface electromyographic (EMG) signals from five forearm muscles in eight able-bodied subjects while they modulated hand posture and the flexion force distribution of individual fingers. We used a support vector machine (SVM) and a random forest regression (RFR) to map EMG signal features to hand posture and individual digit forces, respectively. After training, subjects performed grasping tasks and hand gestures while a computer program computed and displayed online feedback of all digit forces, in which digits were flexed, and the magnitude of contact forces. We also used a commercially available prosthetic hand, the i-Limb (Touch Bionics), to provide a practical demonstration of the proposed approach’s ability to control hand posture and finger forces.

Results: Subjects could control hand pose and force distribution across the fingers during online testing. Decoding success rates ranged from 60% (index finger pointing) to 83–99% for 2-digit grasp and resting state, respectively. Subjects could also modulate finger force distribution.

Discussion: This work provides a proof of concept for the application of SVM and RFR for online control of hand posture and finger force distribution, respectively. Our approach has potential applications for enabling in-hand manipulation with a prosthetic hand.

Atmospheric CO₂ inversions estimate surface carbon fluxes from an optimal fit to atmospheric CO₂ measurements, usually including prior constraints on the flux estimates. Eleven sets of carbon flux estimates are compared, generated by different inversions systems that vary in their inversions methods, choice of atmospheric data, transport model and prior information. The inversions were run for at least 5 yr in the period between 1990 and 2010. Mean fluxes for 2001–2004, seasonal cycles, interannual variability and trends are compared for the tropics and northern and southern extra-tropics, and separately for land and ocean. Some continental/basin-scale subdivisions are also considered where the atmospheric network is denser. Four-year mean fluxes are reasonably consistent across inversions at global/latitudinal scale, with a large total (land plus ocean) carbon uptake in the north (−3.4 Pg C yr^-1 (±0.5 Pg C yr^-1 standard deviation), with slightly more uptake over land than over ocean), a significant although more variable source over the tropics (1.6 ± 0.9 Pg C yr^-1) and a compensatory sink of similar magnitude in the south (−1.4 ± 0.5 Pg C yr^-1) corresponding mainly to an ocean sink. Largest differences across inversions occur in the balance between tropical land sources and southern land sinks. Interannual variability (IAV) in carbon fluxes is larger for land than ocean regions (standard deviation around 1.06 versus 0.33 Pg C yr[superscript −1] for the 1996–2007 period), with much higher consistency among the inversions for the land. While the tropical land explains most of the IAV (standard deviation ~ 0.65 Pg C yr^-1), the northern and southern land also contribute (standard deviation ~ 0.39 Pg C yr^-1). Most inversions tend to indicate an increase of the northern land carbon uptake from late 1990s to 2008 (around 0.1 Pg C yr^-1, predominantly in North Asia. The mean seasonal cycle appears to be well constrained by the atmospheric data over the northern land (at the continental scale), but still highly dependent on the prior flux seasonality over the ocean. Finally we provide recommendations to interpret the regional fluxes, along with the uncertainty estimates.

The concept of postural synergies of the human hand has been shown to potentially reduce complexity in the neuromuscular control of grasping. By merging this concept with soft robotics approaches, a multi degrees of freedom soft-synergy prosthetic hand [SoftHand-Pro (SHP)] was created. The mechanical innovation of the SHP enables adaptive and robust functional grasps with simple and intuitive myoelectric control from only two surface electromyogram (sEMG) channels. However, the current myoelectric controller has very limited capability for fine control of grasp forces. We addressed this challenge by designing a hybrid-gain myoelectric controller that switches control gains based on the sensorimotor state of the SHP. This controller was tested against a conventional single-gain (SG) controller, as well as against native hand in able-bodied subjects. We used the following tasks to evaluate the performance of grasp force control: (1) pick and place objects with different size, weight, and fragility levels using power or precision grasp and (2) squeezing objects with different stiffness. Sensory feedback of the grasp forces was provided to the user through a non-invasive, mechanotactile haptic feedback device mounted on the upper arm. We demonstrated that the novel hybrid controller enabled superior task completion speed and fine force control over SG controller in object pick-and-place tasks. We also found that the performance of the hybrid controller qualitatively agrees with the performance of native human hands.

This paper presents an analysis of methane emissions from the Los Angeles Basin at monthly timescales across a 4-year time period – from September 2011 to August 2015. Using observations acquired by a ground-based near-infrared remote sensing instrument on Mount Wilson, California, combined with atmospheric CH₄–CO₂ tracer–tracer correlations, we observed −18 to +22 % monthly variability in CH₄ : CO₂ from the annual mean in the Los Angeles Basin. Top-down estimates of methane emissions for the basin also exhibit significant monthly variability (−19 to +31 % from annual mean and a maximum month-to-month change of 47 %). During this period, methane emissions consistently peaked in the late summer/early fall and winter. The estimated annual methane emissions did not show a statistically significant trend over the 2011 to 2015 time period.