ASU Scholarship Showcase

A globally integrated carbon observation and analysis system is needed to improve the fundamental understanding of the global carbon cycle, to improve our ability to project future changes, and to verify the effectiveness of policies aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sequestration. Building an integrated carbon observation system requires transformational advances from the existing sparse, exploratory framework towards a dense, robust, and sustained system in all components: anthropogenic emissions, the atmosphere, the ocean, and the terrestrial biosphere. The paper is addressed to scientists, policymakers, and funding agencies who need to have a global picture of the current state of the (diverse) carbon observations.

We identify the current state of carbon observations, and the needs and notional requirements for a global integrated carbon observation system that can be built in the next decade. A key conclusion is the substantial expansion of the ground-based observation networks required to reach the high spatial resolution for CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes, and for carbon stocks for addressing policy-relevant objectives, and attributing flux changes to underlying processes in each region. In order to establish flux and stock diagnostics over areas such as the southern oceans, tropical forests, and the Arctic, in situ observations will have to be complemented with remote-sensing measurements. Remote sensing offers the advantage of dense spatial coverage and frequent revisit. A key challenge is to bring remote-sensing measurements to a level of long-term consistency and accuracy so that they can be efficiently combined in models to reduce uncertainties, in synergy with ground-based data.

Bringing tight observational constraints on fossil fuel and land use change emissions will be the biggest challenge for deployment of a policy-relevant integrated carbon observation system. This will require in situ and remotely sensed data at much higher resolution and density than currently achieved for natural fluxes, although over a small land area (cities, industrial sites, power plants), as well as the inclusion of fossil fuel CO₂ proxy measurements such as radiocarbon in CO₂ and carbon-fuel combustion tracers. Additionally, a policy-relevant carbon monitoring system should also provide mechanisms for reconciling regional top-down (atmosphere-based) and bottom-up (surface-based) flux estimates across the range of spatial and temporal scales relevant to mitigation policies. In addition, uncertainties for each observation data-stream should be assessed. The success of the system will rely on long-term commitments to monitoring, on improved international collaboration to fill gaps in the current observations, on sustained efforts to improve access to the different data streams and make databases interoperable, and on the calibration of each component of the system to agreed-upon international scales.

There are many proteomic applications that require large collections of purified protein, but parallel production of large numbers of different proteins remains a very challenging task. To help meet the needs of the scientific community, we have developed a human protein production pipeline. Using high-throughput (HT) methods, we transferred the genes of 31 full-length proteins into three expression vectors, and expressed the collection as N-terminal HaloTag fusion proteins in Escherichia coli and two commercial cell-free (CF) systems, wheat germ extract (WGE) and HeLa cell extract (HCE). Expression was assessed by labeling the fusion proteins specifically and covalently with a fluorescent HaloTag ligand and detecting its fluorescence on a LabChip[superscript ®] GX microfluidic capillary gel electrophoresis instrument. This automated, HT assay provided both qualitative and quantitative assessment of recombinant protein. E. coli was only capable of expressing 20% of the test collection in the supernatant fraction with ≥20 μg yields, whereas CF systems had ≥83% success rates. We purified expressed proteins using an automated HaloTag purification method. We purified 20, 33, and 42% of the test collection from E. coli, WGE, and HCE, respectively, with yields ≥1 μg and ≥90% purity. Based on these observations, we have developed a triage strategy for producing full-length human proteins in these three expression systems.

Human societies are unique in the level of cooperation among non-kin. Evolutionary models explaining this behavior typically assume pure strategies of cooperation and defection. Behavioral experiments, however, demonstrate that humans are typically conditional co-operators who have other-regarding preferences. Building on existing models on the evolution of cooperation and costly punishment, we use a utilitarian formulation of agent decision making to explore conditions that support the emergence of cooperative behavior. Our results indicate that cooperation levels are significantly lower for larger groups in contrast to the original pure strategy model. Here, defection behavior not only diminishes the public good, but also affects the expectations of group members leading conditional co-operators to change their strategies. Hence defection has a more damaging effect when decisions are based on expectations and not only pure strategies.

Throughout the long history of virus-host co-evolution, viruses have developed delicate strategies to facilitate their invasion and replication of their genome, while silencing the host immune responses through various mechanisms. The systematic characterization of viral protein-host interactions would yield invaluable information in the understanding of viral invasion/evasion, diagnosis and therapeutic treatment of a viral infection, and mechanisms of host biology. With more than 2,000 viral genomes sequenced, only a small percent of them are well investigated. The access of these viral open reading frames (ORFs) in a flexible cloning format would greatly facilitate both in vitro and in vivo virus-host interaction studies. However, the overall progress of viral ORF cloning has been slow. To facilitate viral studies, we are releasing the initiation of our panviral proteome collection of 2,035 ORF clones from 830 viral genes in the Gateway® recombinational cloning system. Here, we demonstrate several uses of our viral collection including highly efficient production of viral proteins using human cell-free expression system in vitro, global identification of host targets for rubella virus using Nucleic Acid Programmable Protein Arrays (NAPPA) containing 10,000 unique human proteins, and detection of host serological responses using micro-fluidic multiplexed immunoassays. The studies presented here begin to elucidate host-viral protein interactions with our systemic utilization of viral ORFs, high-throughput cloning, and proteomic technologies. These valuable plasmid resources will be available to the research community to enable continued viral functional studies.

Errors in the specification or utilization of fossil fuel CO₂ emissions within carbon budget or atmospheric CO₂ inverse studies can alias the estimation of biospheric and oceanic carbon exchange. A key component in the simulation of CO₂ concentrations arising from fossil fuel emissions is the spatial distribution of the emission near coastlines. Regridding of fossil fuel CO₂ emissions (FFCO₂) from fine to coarse grids to enable atmospheric transport simulations can give rise to mismatches between the emissions and simulated atmospheric dynamics which differ over land or water. For example, emissions originally emanating from the land are emitted from a grid cell for which the vertical mixing reflects the roughness and/or surface energy exchange of an ocean surface. We test this potential "dynamical inconsistency" by examining simulated global atmospheric CO₂ concentration driven by two different approaches to regridding fossil fuel CO₂ emissions. The two approaches are as follows: (1) a commonly used method that allocates emissions to grid cells with no attempt to ensure dynamical consistency with atmospheric transport and (2) an improved method that reallocates emissions to grid cells to ensure dynamically consistent results. Results show large spatial and temporal differences in the simulated CO₂ concentration when comparing these two approaches. The emissions difference ranges from −30.3 TgC grid cell^-1 yr^-1 (−3.39 kgC m^-2 yr^-1) to +30.0 TgC grid cell^-1 yr^-1 (+2.6 kgC m^-2 yr^-1) along coastal margins. Maximum simulated annual mean CO₂ concentration differences at the surface exceed ±6 ppm at various locations and times. Examination of the current CO₂ monitoring locations during the local afternoon, consistent with inversion modeling system sampling and measurement protocols, finds maximum hourly differences at 38 stations exceed ±0.10 ppm with individual station differences exceeding −32 ppm. The differences implied by not accounting for this dynamical consistency problem are largest at monitoring sites proximal to large coastal urban areas and point sources. These results suggest that studies comparing simulated to observed atmospheric CO₂ concentration, such as atmospheric CO₂ inversions, must take measures to correct for this potential problem and ensure flux and dynamical consistency.

Collective behaviors in social insect societies often emerge from simple local rules. However, little is known about how these behaviors are dynamically regulated in response to environmental changes. Here, we use a compartmental modeling approach to identify factors that allow harvester ant colonies to regulate collective foraging activity in response to their environment. We propose a set of differential equations describing the dynamics of: (1) available foragers inside the nest, (2) active foragers outside the nest, and (3) successful returning foragers, to understand how colony-specific parameters, such as baseline number of foragers, interactions among foragers, food discovery rates, successful forager return rates, and foraging duration might influence collective foraging dynamics, while maintaining functional robustness to perturbations. Our analysis indicates that the model can undergo a forward (transcritical) bifurcation or a backward bifurcation depending on colony-specific parameters. In the former case, foraging activity persists when the average number of recruits per successful returning forager is larger than one. In the latter case, the backward bifurcation creates a region of bistability in which the size and fate of foraging activity depends on the distribution of the foraging workforce among the model׳s compartments. We validate the model with experimental data from harvester ants (Pogonomyrmex barbatus) and perform sensitivity analysis. Our model provides insights on how simple, local interactions can achieve an emergent and robust regulatory system of collective foraging activity in ant colonies.

We report a device to fill an array of small chemical reaction chambers (microreactors) with reagent and then seal them using pressurized viscous liquid acting through a flexible membrane. The device enables multiple, independent chemical reactions involving free floating intermediate molecules without interference from neighboring reactions or external environments. The device is validated by protein expressed in situ directly from DNA in a microarray of ~10,000 spots with no diffusion during three hours incubation. Using the device to probe for an autoantibody cancer biomarker in blood serum sample gave five times higher signal to background ratio compared to standard protein microarray expressed on a flat microscope slide. Physical design principles to effectively fill the array of microreactors with reagent and experimental results of alternate methods for sealing the microreactors are presented.

Sera from patients with ovarian cancer contain autoantibodies (AAb) to tumor-derived proteins that are potential biomarkers for early detection. To detect AAb, we probed high-density programmable protein microarrays (NAPPA) expressing 5177 candidate tumor antigens with sera from patients with serous ovarian cancer (n = 34 cases/30 controls) and measured bound IgG. Of these, 741 antigens were selected and probed with an independent set of ovarian cancer sera (n = 60 cases/60 controls). Twelve potential autoantigens were identified with sensitivities ranging from 13 to 22% at >93% specificity. These were retested using a Luminex bead array using 60 cases and 60 controls, with sensitivities ranging from 0 to 31.7% at 95% specificity. Three AAb (p53, PTPRA, and PTGFR) had area under the curve (AUC) levels >60% (p < 0.01), with the partial AUC (SPAUC) over 5 times greater than for a nondiscriminating test (p < 0.01). Using a panel of the top three AAb (p53, PTPRA, and PTGFR), if at least two AAb were positive, then the sensitivity was 23.3% at 98.3% specificity. AAb to at least one of these top three antigens were also detected in 7/20 sera (35%) of patients with low CA 125 levels and 0/15 controls. AAb to p53, PTPRA, and PTGFR are potential biomarkers for the early detection of ovarian cancer.

High-resolution, global quantification of fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions is emerging as a critical need in carbon cycle science and climate policy. We build upon a previously developed fossil fuel data assimilation system (FFDAS) for estimating global high-resolution fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions. We have improved the underlying observationally based data sources, expanded the approach through treatment of separate emitting sectors including a new pointwise database of global power plants, and extended the results to cover a 1997 to 2010 time series at a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Long-term trend analysis of the resulting global emissions shows subnational spatial structure in large active economies such as the United States, China, and India. These three countries, in particular, show different long-term trends and exploration of the trends in nighttime lights, and population reveal a decoupling of population and emissions at the subnational level. Analysis of shorter-term variations reveals the impact of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis with widespread negative emission anomalies across the U.S. and Europe. We have used a center of mass (CM) calculation as a compact metric to express the time evolution of spatial patterns in fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions. The global emission CM has moved toward the east and somewhat south between 1997 and 2010, driven by the increase in emissions in China and South Asia over this time period. Analysis at the level of individual countries reveals per capita CO[subscript 2] emission migration in both Russia and India. The per capita emission CM holds potential as a way to succinctly analyze subnational shifts in carbon intensity over time. Uncertainties are generally lower than the previous version of FFDAS due mainly to an improved nightlight data set.

Most studies on the response of socioeconomic systems to a sudden shift focus on long-term equilibria or end points. Such narrow focus forgoes many valuable insights. Here we examine the transient dynamics of regime shift on a divided population, exemplified by societies divided ideologically, politically, economically, or technologically. Replicator dynamics is used to investigate the complex transient dynamics of the population response. Though simple, our modeling approach exhibits a surprisingly rich and diverse array of dynamics. Our results highlight the critical roles played by diversity in strategies and the magnitude of the shift. Importantly, it allows for a variety of strategies to arise organically as an integral part of the transient dynamics-as opposed to an independent process-of population response to a regime shift, providing a link between the population's past and future diversity patterns. Several combinations of different populations' strategy distributions and shifts were systematically investigated. Such rich dynamics highlight the challenges of anticipating the response of a divided population to a change. The findings in this paper can potentially improve our understanding of a wide range of socio-ecological and technological transitions.