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High-resolution, global quantification of fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions is emerging as a critical need in carbon cycle science and climate policy. We build upon a previously developed fossil fuel data assimilation system (FFDAS) for estimating global high-resolution fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions. We have improved the underlying observationally based

High-resolution, global quantification of fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions is emerging as a critical need in carbon cycle science and climate policy. We build upon a previously developed fossil fuel data assimilation system (FFDAS) for estimating global high-resolution fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions. We have improved the underlying observationally based data sources, expanded the approach through treatment of separate emitting sectors including a new pointwise database of global power plants, and extended the results to cover a 1997 to 2010 time series at a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Long-term trend analysis of the resulting global emissions shows subnational spatial structure in large active economies such as the United States, China, and India. These three countries, in particular, show different long-term trends and exploration of the trends in nighttime lights, and population reveal a decoupling of population and emissions at the subnational level. Analysis of shorter-term variations reveals the impact of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis with widespread negative emission anomalies across the U.S. and Europe. We have used a center of mass (CM) calculation as a compact metric to express the time evolution of spatial patterns in fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions. The global emission CM has moved toward the east and somewhat south between 1997 and 2010, driven by the increase in emissions in China and South Asia over this time period. Analysis at the level of individual countries reveals per capita CO[subscript 2] emission migration in both Russia and India. The per capita emission CM holds potential as a way to succinctly analyze subnational shifts in carbon intensity over time. Uncertainties are generally lower than the previous version of FFDAS due mainly to an improved nightlight data set.

ContributorsAsefi-Najafabady, Salvi (Author) / Rayner, P. J. (Author) / Gurney, Kevin (Author) / McRobert, A. (Author) / Song, Y. (Author) / Coltin, K. (Author) / Huang, J. (Author) / Elvidge, C. (Author) / Baugh, K. (Author) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor)
Created2014-09-16
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Description

We investigate near-field radiative heat transfer between Indium Tin Oxide (ITO) nanowire arrays which behave as type 1 and 2 hyperbolic metamaterials. Using spatial dispersion dependent effective medium theory to model the dielectric function of the nanowires, the impact of filling fraction on the heat transfer is analyzed. Depending on

We investigate near-field radiative heat transfer between Indium Tin Oxide (ITO) nanowire arrays which behave as type 1 and 2 hyperbolic metamaterials. Using spatial dispersion dependent effective medium theory to model the dielectric function of the nanowires, the impact of filling fraction on the heat transfer is analyzed. Depending on the filling fraction, it is possible to achieve both types of hyperbolic modes. At 150 nm vacuum gap, the heat transfer between the nanowires with 0.5 filling fraction can be 11 times higher than that between two bulk ITOs. For vacuum gaps less than 150 nm the heat transfer increases as the filling fraction decreases. Results obtained from this study will facilitate applications of ITO nanowires as hyperbolic metamaterials for energy systems.

ContributorsChang, Jui-Yung (Author) / Basu, Soumyadipta (Author) / Wang, Liping (Author) / Ira A. Fulton Schools of Engineering (Contributor)
Created2015-02-07
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Description

Large urban emissions of greenhouse gases result in large atmospheric enhancements relative to background that are easily measured. Using CO2 mole fractions and Δ14C and δ13C values of CO2 in the Los Angeles megacity observed in inland Pasadena (2006–2013) and coastal Palos Verdes peninsula (autumn 2009–2013), we have determined time

Large urban emissions of greenhouse gases result in large atmospheric enhancements relative to background that are easily measured. Using CO2 mole fractions and Δ14C and δ13C values of CO2 in the Los Angeles megacity observed in inland Pasadena (2006–2013) and coastal Palos Verdes peninsula (autumn 2009–2013), we have determined time series for CO2 contributions from fossil fuel combustion (Cff) for both sites and broken those down into contributions from petroleum and/or gasoline and natural gas burning for Pasadena. We find a 10 % reduction in Pasadena Cff during the Great Recession of 2008–2010, which is consistent with the bottom-up inventory determined by the California Air Resources Board. The isotopic variations and total atmospheric CO2 from our observations are used to infer seasonality of natural gas and petroleum combustion. The trend of CO2 contributions to the atmosphere from natural gas combustion is out of phase with the seasonal cycle of total natural gas combustion seasonal patterns in bottom-up inventories but is consistent with the seasonality of natural gas usage by the area's electricity generating power plants. For petroleum, the inferred seasonality of CO2 contributions from burning petroleum is delayed by several months relative to usage indicated by statewide gasoline taxes. Using the high-resolution Hestia-LA data product to compare Cff from parts of the basin sampled by winds at different times of year, we find that variations in observed fossil fuel CO2 reflect seasonal variations in wind direction. The seasonality of the local CO2 excess from fossil fuel combustion along the coast, on Palos Verdes peninsula, is higher in autumn and winter than spring and summer, almost completely out of phase with that from Pasadena, also because of the annual variations of winds in the region. Variations in fossil fuel CO2 signals are consistent with sampling the bottom-up Hestia-LA fossil CO2 emissions product for sub-city source regions in the LA megacity domain when wind directions are considered.

ContributorsNewman, Sally (Author) / Xu, Xiaomei (Author) / Gurney, Kevin (Author) / Hsu, Ying Kuang (Author) / Li, King Fai (Author) / Jiang, Xun (Author) / Keeling, Ralph (Author) / Feng, Sha (Author) / O'Keeffe, Darragh (Author) / Patarasuk, Risa (Author) / Wong, Kam Weng (Author) / Rao, Preeti (Author) / Fischer, Marc L. (Author) / Yung, Yuk L. (Author) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor)
Created2016-03-22
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Description

Atmospheric CO2 inversions estimate surface carbon fluxes from an optimal fit to atmospheric CO2 measurements, usually including prior constraints on the flux estimates. Eleven sets of carbon flux estimates are compared, generated by different inversions systems that vary in their inversions methods, choice of atmospheric data, transport model and prior

Atmospheric CO2 inversions estimate surface carbon fluxes from an optimal fit to atmospheric CO2 measurements, usually including prior constraints on the flux estimates. Eleven sets of carbon flux estimates are compared, generated by different inversions systems that vary in their inversions methods, choice of atmospheric data, transport model and prior information. The inversions were run for at least 5 yr in the period between 1990 and 2010. Mean fluxes for 2001–2004, seasonal cycles, interannual variability and trends are compared for the tropics and northern and southern extra-tropics, and separately for land and ocean. Some continental/basin-scale subdivisions are also considered where the atmospheric network is denser. Four-year mean fluxes are reasonably consistent across inversions at global/latitudinal scale, with a large total (land plus ocean) carbon uptake in the north (−3.4 Pg C yr-1 (±0.5 Pg C yr-1 standard deviation), with slightly more uptake over land than over ocean), a significant although more variable source over the tropics (1.6 ± 0.9 Pg C yr-1) and a compensatory sink of similar magnitude in the south (−1.4 ± 0.5 Pg C yr-1) corresponding mainly to an ocean sink. Largest differences across inversions occur in the balance between tropical land sources and southern land sinks. Interannual variability (IAV) in carbon fluxes is larger for land than ocean regions (standard deviation around 1.06 versus 0.33 Pg C yr[superscript −1] for the 1996–2007 period), with much higher consistency among the inversions for the land. While the tropical land explains most of the IAV (standard deviation ~ 0.65 Pg C yr-1), the northern and southern land also contribute (standard deviation ~ 0.39 Pg C yr-1). Most inversions tend to indicate an increase of the northern land carbon uptake from late 1990s to 2008 (around 0.1 Pg C yr-1, predominantly in North Asia. The mean seasonal cycle appears to be well constrained by the atmospheric data over the northern land (at the continental scale), but still highly dependent on the prior flux seasonality over the ocean. Finally we provide recommendations to interpret the regional fluxes, along with the uncertainty estimates.

ContributorsPeylin, P. (Author) / Law, R. M. (Author) / Gurney, Kevin (Author) / Chevallier, F. (Author) / Jacobson, A. R. (Author) / Maki, T. (Author) / Niwa, Y. (Author) / Patra, P. K. (Author) / Peters, W. (Author) / Rayner, P. J. (Author) / Rodenbeck, C. (Author) / van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T. (Author) / Zhang, X. (Author) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor)
Created2013-10-24
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Description

This paper presents an analysis of methane emissions from the Los Angeles Basin at monthly timescales across a 4-year time period – from September 2011 to August 2015. Using observations acquired by a ground-based near-infrared remote sensing instrument on Mount Wilson, California, combined with atmospheric CH4–CO2 tracer–tracer correlations, we observed

This paper presents an analysis of methane emissions from the Los Angeles Basin at monthly timescales across a 4-year time period – from September 2011 to August 2015. Using observations acquired by a ground-based near-infrared remote sensing instrument on Mount Wilson, California, combined with atmospheric CH4–CO2 tracer–tracer correlations, we observed −18 to +22 % monthly variability in CH4 : CO2 from the annual mean in the Los Angeles Basin. Top-down estimates of methane emissions for the basin also exhibit significant monthly variability (−19 to +31 % from annual mean and a maximum month-to-month change of 47 %). During this period, methane emissions consistently peaked in the late summer/early fall and winter. The estimated annual methane emissions did not show a statistically significant trend over the 2011 to 2015 time period.

ContributorsWong, Clare K. (Author) / Pongetti, Thomas J. (Author) / Oda, Tom (Author) / Rao, Preeti (Author) / Gurney, Kevin (Author) / Newman, Sally (Author) / Duren, Riley M. (Author) / Miller, Charles E. (Author) / Yung, Yuk L. (Author) / Sander, Stanley P. (Author) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor)
Created2016-10-26
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Description

Background: While there is ample evidence for health risks associated with heat and other extreme weather events today, little is known about the impact of weather patterns on population health in preindustrial societies.

Objective: To investigate the impact of weather patterns on population health in Sweden before and during industrialization.

Methods: We

Background: While there is ample evidence for health risks associated with heat and other extreme weather events today, little is known about the impact of weather patterns on population health in preindustrial societies.

Objective: To investigate the impact of weather patterns on population health in Sweden before and during industrialization.

Methods: We obtained records of monthly mortality and of monthly mean temperatures and precipitation for Skellefteå parish, northern Sweden, for the period 1800-1950. The associations between monthly total mortality, as well as monthly mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases, and monthly mean temperature and cumulative precipitation were modelled using a time series approach for three separate periods, 1800−1859, 1860-1909, and 1910-1950.

Results: We found higher temperatures and higher amounts of precipitation to be associated with lower mortality both in the medium term (same month and two-months lag) and in the long run (lag of six months up to a year). Similar patterns were found for mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases. Furthermore, the effect of temperature and precipitation decreased over time.

Conclusions: Higher temperature and precipitation amounts were associated with reduced death counts with a lag of up to 12 months. The decreased effect over time may be due to improvements in nutritional status, decreased infant deaths, and other changes in society that occurred in the course of the demographic and epidemiological transition.

Contribution: The study contributes to a better understanding of the complex relationship between weather and mortality and, in particular, historical weather-related mortality.

ContributorsDaniel, Oudin Astrom (Author) / Edvinsson, Soren (Author) / Hondula, David M. (Author) / Rocklov, Joacim (Author) / Schumann, Barbara (Author) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor)
Created2016-10-05
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Description

In this letter, we study the near-field radiative heat transfer between two metamaterial substrates coated with silicon carbide (SiC) thin films. It is known that metamaterials can enhance the near-field heat transfer over ordinary materials due to excitation of magnetic plasmons associated with s polarization, while strong surface phonon polariton

In this letter, we study the near-field radiative heat transfer between two metamaterial substrates coated with silicon carbide (SiC) thin films. It is known that metamaterials can enhance the near-field heat transfer over ordinary materials due to excitation of magnetic plasmons associated with s polarization, while strong surface phonon polariton exists for SiC. By careful tuning of the optical properties of metamaterial, it is possible to excite electrical and magnetic resonances for the metamaterial and surface phonon polaritons for SiC at different spectral regions, resulting in the enhanced heat transfer. The effect of the SiC film thickness at different vacuum gaps is investigated. Results obtained from this study will be beneficial for application of thin film coatings for energy harvesting.

ContributorsBasu, Soumyadipta (Author) / Yang, Yue (Author) / Wang, Liping (Author) / Ira A. Fulton Schools of Engineering (Contributor)
Created2015-01-19
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Description

A film-coupled metamaterial structure is numerically investigated for enhancing the light absorption in an ultrathin photovoltaic layer of crystalline gallium arsenide (GaAs). The top subwavelength concave grating and the bottom metallic film could not only effectively trap light with the help of wave interference and magnetic resonance effects excited above

A film-coupled metamaterial structure is numerically investigated for enhancing the light absorption in an ultrathin photovoltaic layer of crystalline gallium arsenide (GaAs). The top subwavelength concave grating and the bottom metallic film could not only effectively trap light with the help of wave interference and magnetic resonance effects excited above the bandgap, but also practically serve as electrical contacts for photon-generated charge collection. The energy absorbed by the active layer is greatly enhanced with the help of the film-coupled metamaterial structure, resulting in significant improvement on the short-circuit current density by three times over a free-standing GaAs layer at the same thickness. The performance of the proposed light trapping structure is demonstrated to be little affected by the grating ridge width considering the geometric tolerance during fabrication. The optical absorption at oblique incidences also shows direction-insensitive behavior, which is highly desired for efficiently converting off-normal sunlight to electricity. The results would facilitate the development of next-generation ultrathin solar cells with lower cost and higher efficiency.

ContributorsWang, Hao (Author) / Wang, Liping (Author) / Ira A. Fulton Schools of Engineering (Contributor)
Created2015-02-01
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Description

Background: Most excess deaths that occur during extreme hot weather events do not have natural heat recorded as an underlying or contributing cause. This study aims to identify the specific individuals who died because of hot weather using only secondary data. A novel approach was developed in which the expected number

Background: Most excess deaths that occur during extreme hot weather events do not have natural heat recorded as an underlying or contributing cause. This study aims to identify the specific individuals who died because of hot weather using only secondary data. A novel approach was developed in which the expected number of deaths was repeatedly sampled from all deaths that occurred during a hot weather event, and compared with deaths during a control period. The deaths were compared with respect to five factors known to be associated with hot weather mortality. Individuals were ranked by their presence in significant models over 100 trials of 10,000 repetitions. Those with the highest rankings were identified as probable excess deaths. Sensitivity analyses were performed on a range of model combinations. These methods were applied to a 2009 hot weather event in greater Vancouver, Canada.

Results: The excess deaths identified were sensitive to differences in model combinations, particularly between univariate and multivariate approaches. One multivariate and one univariate combination were chosen as the best models for further analyses. The individuals identified by multiple combinations suggest that marginalized populations in greater Vancouver are at higher risk of death during hot weather.

Conclusions: This study proposes novel methods for classifying specific deaths as expected or excess during a hot weather event. Further work is needed to evaluate performance of the methods in simulation studies and against clinically identified cases. If confirmed, these methods could be applied to a wide range of populations and events of interest.

Created2016-11-15
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Description

Background: Extreme heat is a public health challenge. The scarcity of directly comparable studies on the association of heat with morbidity and mortality and the inconsistent identification of threshold temperatures for severe impacts hampers the development of comprehensive strategies aimed at reducing adverse heat-health events.

Objectives: This quantitative study was designed

Background: Extreme heat is a public health challenge. The scarcity of directly comparable studies on the association of heat with morbidity and mortality and the inconsistent identification of threshold temperatures for severe impacts hampers the development of comprehensive strategies aimed at reducing adverse heat-health events.

Objectives: This quantitative study was designed to link temperature with mortality and morbidity events in Maricopa County, Arizona, USA, with a focus on the summer season.
Methods: Using Poisson regression models that controlled for temporal confounders, we assessed daily temperature–health associations for a suite of mortality and morbidity events, diagnoses, and temperature metrics. Minimum risk temperatures, increasing risk temperatures, and excess risk temperatures were statistically identified to represent different “trigger points” at which heat-health intervention measures might be activated.

Results: We found significant and consistent associations of high environmental temperature with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, heat-related mortality, and mortality resulting from conditions that are consequences of heat and dehydration. Hospitalizations and emergency department visits due to heat-related conditions and conditions associated with consequences of heat and dehydration were also strongly associated with high temperatures, and there were several times more of those events than there were deaths. For each temperature metric, we observed large contrasts in trigger points (up to 22°C) across multiple health events and diagnoses.

Conclusion: Consideration of multiple health events and diagnoses together with a comprehensive approach to identifying threshold temperatures revealed large differences in trigger points for possible interventions related to heat. Providing an array of heat trigger points applicable for different end-users may improve the public health response to a problem that is projected to worsen in the coming decades.

Created2015-07-28