ASU Scholarship Showcase

Five immunocompetent C57BL/6-cBrd/cBrd/Cr (albino C57BL/6) mice were injected with GL261-luc2 cells, a cell line sharing characteristics of human glioblastoma multiforme (GBM). The mice were imaged using magnetic resonance (MR) at five separate time points to characterize growth and development of the tumor. After 25 days, the final tumor volumes of the mice varied from 12 mm³ to 62 mm³, even though mice were inoculated from the same tumor cell line under carefully controlled conditions. We generated hypotheses to explore large variances in final tumor size and tested them with our simple reaction-diffusion model in both a 3-dimensional (3D) finite difference method and a 2-dimensional (2D) level set method. The parameters obtained from a best-fit procedure, designed to yield simulated tumors as close as possible to the observed ones, vary by an order of magnitude between the three mice analyzed in detail. These differences may reflect morphological and biological variability in tumor growth, as well as errors in the mathematical model, perhaps from an oversimplification of the tumor dynamics or nonidentifiability of parameters. Our results generate parameters that match other experimental in vitro and in vivo measurements. Additionally, we calculate wave speed, which matches with other rat and human measurements.

Background:
Data assimilation refers to methods for updating the state vector (initial condition) of a complex spatiotemporal model (such as a numerical weather model) by combining new observations with one or more prior forecasts. We consider the potential feasibility of this approach for making short-term (60-day) forecasts of the growth and spread of a malignant brain cancer (glioblastoma multiforme) in individual patient cases, where the observations are synthetic magnetic resonance images of a hypothetical tumor.

Results:
We apply a modern state estimation algorithm (the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter), previously developed for numerical weather prediction, to two different mathematical models of glioblastoma, taking into account likely errors in model parameters and measurement uncertainties in magnetic resonance imaging. The filter can accurately shadow the growth of a representative synthetic tumor for 360 days (six 60-day forecast/update cycles) in the presence of a moderate degree of systematic model error and measurement noise.

Conclusions:
The mathematical methodology described here may prove useful for other modeling efforts in biology and oncology. An accurate forecast system for glioblastoma may prove useful in clinical settings for treatment planning and patient counseling.

Biological Soil Crusts (BSCs) are organosedimentary assemblages comprised of microbes and minerals in topsoil of terrestrial environments. BSCs strongly impact soil quality in dryland ecosystems (e.g., soil structure and nutrient yields) due to pioneer species such as Microcoleus vaginatus; phototrophs that produce filaments that bind the soil together, and support an array of heterotrophic microorganisms. These microorganisms in turn contribute to soil stability and biogeochemistry of BSCs. Non-cyanobacterial populations of BSCs are less well known than cyanobacterial populations. Therefore, we attempted to isolate a broad range of numerically significant and phylogenetically representative BSC aerobic heterotrophs. Combining simple pre-treatments (hydration of BSCs under dark and light) and isolation strategies (media with varying nutrient availability and protection from oxidative stress) we recovered 402 bacterial and one fungal isolate in axenic culture, which comprised 116 phylotypes (at 97% 16S rRNA gene sequence homology), 115 bacterial and one fungal. Each medium enriched a mostly distinct subset of phylotypes, and cultivated phylotypes varied due to the BSC pre-treatment. The fraction of the total phylotype diversity isolated, weighted by relative abundance in the community, was determined by the overlap between isolate sequences and OTUs reconstructed from metagenome or metatranscriptome reads. Together, more than 8% of relative abundance of OTUs in the metagenome was represented by our isolates, a cultivation efficiency much larger than typically expected from most soils. We conclude that simple cultivation procedures combined with specific pre-treatment of samples afford a significant reduction in the culturability gap, enabling physiological and metabolic assays that rely on ecologically relevant axenic cultures.

A relatively unexplored issue in cybersecurity science and engineering is whether there exist intrinsic patterns of cyberattacks. Conventional wisdom favors absence of such patterns due to the overwhelming complexity of the modern cyberspace. Surprisingly, through a detailed analysis of an extensive data set that records the time-dependent frequencies of attacks over a relatively wide range of consecutive IP addresses, we successfully uncover intrinsic spatiotemporal patterns underlying cyberattacks, where the term “spatio” refers to the IP address space. In particular, we focus on analyzing macroscopic properties of the attack traffic flows and identify two main patterns with distinct spatiotemporal characteristics: deterministic and stochastic. Strikingly, there are very few sets of major attackers committing almost all the attacks, since their attack “fingerprints” and target selection scheme can be unequivocally identified according to the very limited number of unique spatiotemporal characteristics, each of which only exists on a consecutive IP region and differs significantly from the others. We utilize a number of quantitative measures, including the flux-fluctuation law, the Markov state transition probability matrix, and predictability measures, to characterize the attack patterns in a comprehensive manner. A general finding is that the attack patterns possess high degrees of predictability, potentially paving the way to anticipating and, consequently, mitigating or even preventing large-scale cyberattacks using macroscopic approaches.

Supply-demand processes take place on a large variety of real-world networked systems ranging from power grids and the internet to social networking and urban systems. In a modern infrastructure, supply-demand systems are constantly expanding, leading to constant increase in load requirement for resources and consequently, to problems such as low efficiency, resource scarcity, and partial system failures. Under certain conditions global catastrophe on the scale of the whole system can occur through the dynamical process of cascading failures. We investigate optimization and resilience of time-varying supply-demand systems by constructing network models of such systems, where resources are transported from the supplier sites to users through various links. Here by optimization we mean minimization of the maximum load on links, and system resilience can be characterized using the cascading failure size of users who fail to connect with suppliers.

We consider two representative classes of supply schemes: load driven supply and fix fraction supply. Our findings are: (1) optimized systems are more robust since relatively smaller cascading failures occur when triggered by external perturbation to the links; (2) a large fraction of links can be free of load if resources are directed to transport through the shortest paths; (3) redundant links in the performance of the system can help to reroute the traffic but may undesirably transmit and enlarge the failure size of the system; (4) the patterns of cascading failures depend strongly upon the capacity of links; (5) the specific location of the trigger determines the specific route of cascading failure, but has little effect on the final cascading size; (6) system expansion typically reduces the efficiency; and (7) when the locations of the suppliers are optimized over a long expanding period, fewer suppliers are required. These results hold for heterogeneous networks in general, providing insights into designing optimal and resilient complex supply-demand systems that expand constantly in time.

The heterocyclic indole-alkaloid scytonemin is a sunscreen found exclusively among cyanobacteria. An 18-gene cluster is responsible for scytonemin production in Nostoc punctiforme ATCC 29133. The upstream genes scyABCDEF in the cluster are proposed to be responsible for scytonemin biosynthesis from aromatic amino acid substrates. In vitro studies of ScyA, ScyB, and ScyC proved that these enzymes indeed catalyze initial pathway reactions. Here we characterize the role of ScyD, ScyE, and ScyF, which were logically predicted to be responsible for late biosynthetic steps, in the biological context of N. punctiforme. In-frame deletion mutants of each were constructed (ΔscyD, ΔscyE, and ΔscyF) and their phenotypes studied. Expectedly, ΔscyE presents a scytoneminless phenotype, but no accumulation of the predicted intermediaries. Surprisingly, ΔscyD retains scytonemin production, implying that it is not required for biosynthesis. Indeed, scyD presents an interesting evolutionary paradox: it likely originated in a duplication event from scyE, and unlike other genes in the operon, it has not been subjected to purifying selection. This would suggest that it is a pseudogene, and yet scyD is highly conserved in the scytonemin operon of cyanobacteria. ΔscyF also retains scytonemin production, albeit exhibiting a reduction of the production yield compared with the wild-type. This indicates that ScyF is not essential but may play an adjuvant role for scytonemin synthesis. Altogether, our findings suggest that these downstream genes are not responsible, as expected, for the late steps of scytonemin synthesis and we must look for those functions elsewhere. These findings are particularly important for biotechnological production of this sunscreen through heterologous expression of its genes in more tractable organisms.

Most previous works on complete synchronization of chaotic oscillators focused on the one-channel interaction scheme where the oscillators are coupled through only one variable or a symmetric set of variables. Using the standard framework of master-stability function (MSF), we investigate the emergence of complex synchronization behaviors under all possible configurations of two-channel coupling, which include, for example, all possible cross coupling schemes among the dynamical variables. Utilizing the classic Rössler and Lorenz oscillators, we find a rich variety of synchronization phenomena not present in any previously extensively studied, single-channel coupling configurations. For example, in many cases two coupling channels can enhance or even generate synchronization where there is only weak or no synchronization under only one coupling channel, which has been verified in a coupled neuron system. There are also cases where the oscillators are originally synchronized under one coupling channel, but an additional synchronizable coupling channel can, however, destroy synchronization. Direct numerical simulations of actual synchronization dynamics verify the MSF-based predictions. Our extensive computation and heuristic analysis provide an atlas for synchronization of chaotic oscillators coupled through two channels, which can be used as a systematic reference to facilitate further research in this area.

N₂ fixation and ammonia oxidation (AO) are the two most important processes in the nitrogen (N) cycle of biological soil crusts (BSCs). We studied the short-term response of acetylene reduction assay (ARA) rates, an indicator of potential N₂ fixation, and AO rates to temperature (T, -5°C to 35°C) in BSC of different successional stages along the BSC ecological succession and geographic origin (hot Chihuahuan and cooler Great Basin deserts). ARA in all BSCs increased with T until saturation occurred between 15 and 20°C, and declined at 30–35°C. Culture studies using cyanobacteria isolated from these crusts indicated that the saturating effect was traceable to their inability to grow well diazotrophically within the high temperature range. Below saturation, temperature response was exponential, with Q₁₀ significantly different in the two areas (~ 5 for Great Basin BSCs; 2–3 for Chihuahuan BSCs), but similar between the two successional stages. However, in contrast to ARA, AO showed a steady increase to 30–35°C in Great Basin, and Chihuhuan BSCs showed no inhibition at any tested temperature. The T response of AO also differed significantly between Great Basin (Q₁₀ of 4.5–4.8) and Chihuahuan (Q₁₀ of 2.4–2.6) BSCs, but not between successional stages. Response of ARA rates to T did not differ from that of AO in either desert. Thus, while both processes scaled to T in unison until 20°C, they separated to an increasing degree at higher temperature. As future warming is likely to occur in the regions where BSCs are often the dominant living cover, this predicted decoupling is expected to result in higher proportion of nitrates in soil relative to ammonium. As nitrate is more easily lost as leachate or to be reduced to gaseous forms, this could mean a depletion of soil N over large landscapes globally.

Predicting the timing of a castrate resistant prostate cancer is critical to lowering medical costs and improving the quality of life of advanced prostate cancer patients. We formulate, compare and analyze two mathematical models that aim to forecast future levels of prostate-specific antigen (PSA). We accomplish these tasks by employing clinical data of locally advanced prostate cancer patients undergoing androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). While these models are simplifications of a previously published model, they fit data with similar accuracy and improve forecasting results. Both models describe the progression of androgen resistance. Although Model 1 is simpler than the more realistic Model 2, it can fit clinical data to a greater precision. However, we found that Model 2 can forecast future PSA levels more accurately. These findings suggest that including more realistic mechanisms of androgen dynamics in a two population model may help androgen resistance timing prediction.

Cyanobacteria are considered good models for biohydrogen production because they are relatively simple organisms with a demonstrable ability to generate H₂ under certain physiological conditions. However, most produce only little H₂, revert readily to H₂ consumption, and suffer from hydrogenase sensitivity to O₂. Strains of the cyanobacteria Lyngbya aestuarii and Microcoleus chthonoplastes obtained from marine intertidal cyanobacterial mats were recently found to display much better H₂ production potential. Because of their ecological origin in environments that become quickly anoxic in the dark, we hypothesized that this differential ability may have evolved to serve a role in the fermentation of the photosynthate. Here we show that, when forced to ferment internal substrate, these cyanobacteria display desirable characteristics of physiological H₂ production. Among them, the strain L. aestuarii BL J had the fastest specific rates and attained the highest H₂ concentrations during fermentation of photosynthate, which proceeded via a mixed acid fermentation pathway to yield acetate, ethanol, lactate, H₂, CO₂, and pyruvate. Contrary to expectations, the H₂ yield per mole of glucose was only average compared to that of other cyanobacteria. Thermodynamic analyses point to the use of electron donors more electronegative than NAD(P)H in Lyngbya hydrogenases as the basis for its strong H₂ production ability. In any event, the high specific rates and H₂ concentrations coupled with the lack of reversibility of the enzyme, at the expense of internal, photosynthetically generated reductants, makes L. aestuarii BL J and/or its enzymes, a potentially feasible platform for large-scale H₂ production.