ASU Scholarship Showcase

This paper studies the effect of targeted observations on state and parameter estimates determined with Kalman filter data assimilation (DA) techniques. We first provide an analytical result demonstrating that targeting observations within the Kalman filter for a linear model can significantly reduce state estimation error as opposed to fixed or randomly located observations. We next conduct observing system simulation experiments for a chaotic model of meteorological interest, where we demonstrate that the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with targeted observations based on largest ensemble variance is skillful in providing more accurate state estimates than the LETKF with randomly located observations. Additionally, we find that a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter parameter estimation method accurately updates model parameters within the targeted observation context to further improve state estimation.

The effects of urbanization on ozone levels have been widely investigated over cities primarily located in temperate and/or humid regions. In this study, nested WRF-Chem simulations with a finest grid resolution of 1 km are conducted to investigate ozone concentrations O₃ due to urbanization within cities in arid/semi-arid environments. First, a method based on a shape preserving Monotonic Cubic Interpolation (MCI) is developed and used to downscale anthropogenic emissions from the 4 km resolution 2005 National Emissions Inventory (NEI05) to the finest model resolution of 1 km. Using the rapidly expanding Phoenix metropolitan region as the area of focus, we demonstrate the proposed MCI method achieves ozone simulation results with appreciably improved correspondence to observations relative to the default interpolation method of the WRF-Chem system. Next, two additional sets of experiments are conducted, with the recommended MCI approach, to examine impacts of urbanization on ozone production: (1) the urban land cover is included (i.e., urbanization experiments) and, (2) the urban land cover is replaced with the region's native shrubland. Impacts due to the presence of the built environment on O₃ are highly heterogeneous across the metropolitan area. Increased near surface O₃ due to urbanization of 10–20 ppb is predominantly a nighttime phenomenon while simulated impacts during daytime are negligible. Urbanization narrows the daily O₃ range (by virtue of increasing nighttime minima), an impact largely due to the region's urban heat island. Our results demonstrate the importance of the MCI method for accurate representation of the diurnal profile of ozone, and highlight its utility for high-resolution air quality simulations for urban areas.

An interesting occurrence of a Rossby wave breaking event observed during the VORCORE experiment is presented and explained. Twenty-seven balloons were launched inside the Antarctic polar vortex. Almost all of these balloons evolved in the stratosphere around 500K within the vortex, except the one launched on 28 October 2005. In this case, the balloon was caught within a tongue of high potential vorticity (PV), and was ejected from the polar vortex. The evolution of this event is studied for the period between 19 and 25 November 2005. It is found that at the beginning of this period, the polar vortex experienced distortions due to the presence of Rossby waves. Then, these waves break and a tongue of high PV develops. On 25 November, the tongue became separated from the vortex and the balloon was ejected into the surf zone. Lagrangian simulations demonstrate that the air masses surrounding the balloon after its ejection were originating from the vortex edge. The wave breaking and the development of the tongue are confined within a region where a planetary Quasi-Stationary Wave 1 (QSW1) induces wind speeds with weaker values. The QSW1 causes asymmetry in the wind speed and the horizontal PV gradient along the edge of the polar vortex, resulting in a localized jet. Rossby waves with smaller scales propagating on top of this jet amplify as they enter the jet exit region and then break. The role of the QSW1 on the formation of the weak flow conditions that caused the non-linear wave breaking observed near the vortex edge is confirmed by three-dimensional numerical simulations using forcing with and without the contribution of the QSW1.

Background: The discovery of genetic associations is an important factor in the understanding of human illness to derive disease pathways. Identifying multiple interacting genetic mutations associated with disease remains challenging in studying the etiology of complex diseases. And although recently new single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at genes implicated in immune response, cholesterol/lipid metabolism, and cell membrane processes have been confirmed by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to be associated with late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD), a percentage of AD heritability continues to be unexplained. We try to find other genetic variants that may influence LOAD risk utilizing data mining methods.

Methods: Two different approaches were devised to select SNPs associated with LOAD in a publicly available GWAS data set consisting of three cohorts. In both approaches, single-locus analysis (logistic regression) was conducted to filter the data with a less conservative p-value than the Bonferroni threshold; this resulted in a subset of SNPs used next in multi-locus analysis (random forest (RF)). In the second approach, we took into account prior biological knowledge, and performed sample stratification and linkage disequilibrium (LD) in addition to logistic regression analysis to preselect loci to input into the RF classifier construction step.

Results: The first approach gave 199 SNPs mostly associated with genes in calcium signaling, cell adhesion, endocytosis, immune response, and synaptic function. These SNPs together with APOE and GAB2 SNPs formed a predictive subset for LOAD status with an average error of 9.8% using 10-fold cross validation (CV) in RF modeling. Nineteen variants in LD with ST5, TRPC1, ATG10, ANO3, NDUFA12, and NISCH respectively, genes linked directly or indirectly with neurobiology, were identified with the second approach. These variants were part of a model that included APOE and GAB2 SNPs to predict LOAD risk which produced a 10-fold CV average error of 17.5% in the classification modeling.

Conclusions: With the two proposed approaches, we identified a large subset of SNPs in genes mostly clustered around specific pathways/functions and a smaller set of SNPs, within or in proximity to five genes not previously reported, that may be relevant for the prediction/understanding of AD.

Background: Glioblastoma is the most aggressive primary central nervous tumor and carries a very poor prognosis. Invasion precludes effective treatment and virtually assures tumor recurrence. In the current study, we applied analytical and bioinformatics approaches to identify a set of microRNAs (miRs) from several different human glioblastoma cell lines that exhibit significant differential expression between migratory (edge) and migration-restricted (core) cell populations. The hypothesis of the study is that differential expression of miRs provides an epigenetic mechanism to drive cell migration and invasion.

Results: Our research data comprise gene expression values for a set of 805 human miRs collected from matched pairs of migratory and migration-restricted cell populations from seven different glioblastoma cell lines. We identified 62 down-regulated and 2 up-regulated miRs that exhibit significant differential expression in the migratory (edge) cell population compared to matched migration-restricted (core) cells. We then conducted target prediction and pathway enrichment analysis with these miRs to investigate potential associated gene and pathway targets. Several miRs in the list appear to directly target apoptosis related genes. The analysis identifies a set of genes that are predicted by 3 different algorithms, further emphasizing the potential validity of these miRs to promote glioblastoma.

Conclusions: The results of this study identify a set of miRs with potential for decreased expression in invasive glioblastoma cells. The verification of these miRs and their associated targeted proteins provides new insights for further investigation into therapeutic interventions. The methodological approaches employed here could be applied to the study of other diseases to provide biomedical researchers and clinicians with increased opportunities for therapeutic interventions.

Urban environmental measurements and observational statistics should reflect the properties generated over an adjacent area of adequate length where homogeneity is usually assumed. The determination of this characteristic source area that gives sufficient representation of the horizontal coverage of a sensing instrument or the fetch of transported quantities is of critical importance to guide the design and implementation of urban landscape planning strategies. In this study, we aim to unify two different methods for estimating source areas, viz. the statistical correlation method commonly used by geographers for landscape fragmentation and the mechanistic footprint model by meteorologists for atmospheric measurements. Good agreement was found in the intercomparison of the estimate of source areas by the two methods, based on 2-m air temperature measurement collected using a network of weather stations. The results can be extended to shed new lights on urban planning strategies, such as the use of urban vegetation for heat mitigation. In general, a sizable patch of landscape is required in order to play an effective role in regulating the local environment, proportional to the height at which stakeholders’ interest is mainly concerned.

Nocturnal cooling of urban areas governs the evolution of thermal state and many thermal-driven environmental issues in cities, especially those suffer strong urban heat island (UHI) effect. Advances in the fundamental understanding of the underlying physics of nighttime UHI involve disentangling complex contributing effects and remains an open challenge. In this study, we develop new numerical algorithms to characterize the thermodynamics of urban nocturnal cooling based on solving the energy balance equations for both the landscape surface and the overlying atmosphere. Further, a scaling law is proposed to relate the UHI intensity to a range of governing mechanisms, including the vertical and horizontal transport of heat in the surface layer, the urban-rural breeze, and the possible urban expansion. The accuracy of proposed methods is evaluated against in-situ urban measurements collected in cities with different geographic and climatic conditions. It is found that the vertical and horizontal contributors modulate the nocturnal UHI at distinct elevation in the atmospheric boundary layer.

Background: Obesity is a metabolic disease caused by environmental and genetic factors. However, the epigenetic mechanisms of obesity are incompletely understood. The aim of our study was to investigate the role of skeletal muscle DNA methylation in combination with transcriptomic changes in obesity.

Results: Muscle biopsies were obtained basally from lean (n = 12; BMI = 23.4 ± 0.7 kg/m[superscript 2]) and obese (n = 10; BMI = 32.9 ± 0.7 kg/m[superscript 2]) participants in combination with euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic clamps to assess insulin sensitivity. We performed reduced representation bisulfite sequencing (RRBS) next-generation methylation and microarray analyses on DNA and RNA isolated from vastus lateralis muscle biopsies. There were 13,130 differentially methylated cytosines (DMC; uncorrected P < 0.05) that were altered in the promoter and untranslated (5' and 3'UTR) regions in the obese versus lean analysis. Microarray analysis revealed 99 probes that were significantly (corrected P < 0.05) altered. Of these, 12 genes (encompassing 22 methylation sites) demonstrated a negative relationship between gene expression and DNA methylation. Specifically, sorbin and SH3 domain containing 3 (SORBS3) which codes for the adapter protein vinexin was significantly decreased in gene expression (fold change −1.9) and had nine DMCs that were significantly increased in methylation in obesity (methylation differences ranged from 5.0 to 24.4 %). Moreover, differentially methylated region (DMR) analysis identified a region in the 5'UTR (Chr.8:22,423,530–22,423,569) of SORBS3 that was increased in methylation by 11.2 % in the obese group. The negative relationship observed between DNA methylation and gene expression for SORBS3 was validated by a site-specific sequencing approach, pyrosequencing, and qRT-PCR. Additionally, we performed transcription factor binding analysis and identified a number of transcription factors whose binding to the differentially methylated sites or region may contribute to obesity.

Conclusions: These results demonstrate that obesity alters the epigenome through DNA methylation and highlights novel transcriptomic changes in SORBS3 in skeletal muscle.

Land surface energy balance in a built environment is widely modelled using urban canopy models with representation of building arrays as big street canyons. Modification of this simplified geometric representation, however, leads to challenging numerical difficulties in improving physical parameterization schemes that are deterministic in nature. In this paper, we develop a stochastic algorithm to estimate view factors between canyon facets in the presence of shade trees based on Monte Carlo simulation, where an analytical formulation is inhibited by the complex geometry. The model is validated against analytical solutions of benchmark radiative problems as well as field measurements in real street canyons. In conjunction with the matrix method resolving infinite number of reflections, the proposed model is capable of predicting the radiative exchange inside the street canyon with good accuracy. Modeling of transient evolution of thermal filed inside the street canyon using the proposed method demonstrate the potential of shade trees in mitigating canyon surface temperatures as well as saving of building energy use. This new numerical framework also deepens our insight into the fundamental physics of radiative heat transfer and surface energy balance for urban climate modeling.

Studies on urban heat island (UHI) have been more than a century after the phenomenon was first discovered in the early 1800s. UHI emerges as the source of many urban environmental problems and exacerbates the living environment in cities. Under the challenges of increasing urbanization and future climate changes, there is a pressing need for sustainable adaptation/mitigation strategies for UHI effects, one popular option being the use of reflective materials. While it is introduced as an effective method to reduce temperature and energy consumption in cities, its impacts on environmental sustainability and large-scale non-local effect are inadequately explored. This paper provides a synthetic overview of potential environmental impacts of reflective materials at a variety of scales, ranging from energy load on a single building to regional hydroclimate. The review shows that mitigation potential of reflective materials depends on a set of factors, including building characteristics, urban environment, meteorological and geographical conditions, to name a few. Precaution needs to be exercised by city planners and policy makers for large-scale deployment of reflective materials before their environmental impacts, especially on regional hydroclimates, are better understood. In general, it is recommended that optimal strategy for UHI needs to be determined on a city-by-city basis, rather than adopting a “one-solution-fits-all” strategy.