ASU Scholarship Showcase

The evolution of cooperation is a fundamental problem in biology, especially for non-relatives, where indirect fitness benefits cannot counter within-group inequalities. Multilevel selection models show how cooperation can evolve if it generates a group-level advantage, even when cooperators are disadvantaged within their group. This allows the possibility of group selection, but few examples have been described in nature. Here we show that group selection can explain the evolution of cooperative nest founding in the harvester ant Pogonomyrmex californicus. Through most of this species’ range, colonies are founded by single queens, but in some populations nests are instead founded by cooperative groups of unrelated queens. In mixed groups of cooperative and single-founding queens, we found that aggressive individuals had a survival advantage within their nest, but foundress groups with such non-cooperators died out more often than those with only cooperative members. An agent-based model shows that the between-group advantage of the cooperative phenotype drives it to fixation, despite its within-group disadvantage, but only when population density is high enough to make between-group competition intense. Field data show higher nest density in a population where cooperative founding is common, consistent with greater density driving the evolution of cooperative foundation through group selection.

Human societies are unique in the level of cooperation among non-kin. Evolutionary models explaining this behavior typically assume pure strategies of cooperation and defection. Behavioral experiments, however, demonstrate that humans are typically conditional co-operators who have other-regarding preferences. Building on existing models on the evolution of cooperation and costly punishment, we use a utilitarian formulation of agent decision making to explore conditions that support the emergence of cooperative behavior. Our results indicate that cooperation levels are significantly lower for larger groups in contrast to the original pure strategy model. Here, defection behavior not only diminishes the public good, but also affects the expectations of group members leading conditional co-operators to change their strategies. Hence defection has a more damaging effect when decisions are based on expectations and not only pure strategies.

On-going efforts to understand the dynamics of coupled social-ecological (or more broadly, coupled infrastructure) systems and common pool resources have led to the generation of numerous datasets based on a large number of case studies. This data has facilitated the identification of important factors and fundamental principles which increase our understanding of such complex systems. However, the data at our disposal are often not easily comparable, have limited scope and scale, and are based on disparate underlying frameworks inhibiting synthesis, meta-analysis, and the validation of findings. Research efforts are further hampered when case inclusion criteria, variable definitions, coding schema, and inter-coder reliability testing are not made explicit in the presentation of research and shared among the research community. This paper first outlines challenges experienced by researchers engaged in a large-scale coding project; then highlights valuable lessons learned; and finally discusses opportunities for further research on comparative case study analysis focusing on social-ecological systems and common pool resources. Includes supplemental materials and appendices published in the International Journal of the Commons 2016 Special Issue. Volume 10 - Issue 2 - 2016.

Governing common pool resources (CPR) in the face of disturbances such as globalization and climate change is challenging. The outcome of any CPR governance regime is the influenced by local combinations of social, institutional, and biophysical factors, as well as cross-scale interdependencies. In this study, we take a step towards understanding multiple-causation of CPR outcomes by analyzing 1) the co-occurrence of Design Principles (DP) by activity (irrigation, fishery and forestry), and 2) the combination(s) of DPs leading to social and ecological success. We analyzed 69 cases pertaining to three different activities: irrigation, fishery, and forestry. We find that the importance of the design principles is dependent upon the natural and hard human made infrastructure (i.e. canals, equipment, vessels etc.). For example, clearly defined social boundaries are important when the natural infrastructure is highly mobile (i.e. tuna fish), while monitoring is more important when the natural infrastructure is more static (i.e. forests or water contained within an irrigation system). However, we also find that congruence between local conditions and rules and proportionality between investment and extraction are key for CPR success independent from the natural and human hard made infrastructure. We further provide new visualization techniques for co-occurrence patterns and add to qualitative comparative analysis by introducing a reliability metric to deal with a large meta-analysis dataset on secondary data where information is missing or uncertain.

Includes supplemental materials and appendices publications in International Journal of the Commons 2016 Special Issue. Volume 10 - Issue 2 - 2016

Recently, there has been an increased interest in using behavioral experiments to study hypotheses on the governance of social-ecological systems. A diversity of software tools are used to implement such experiments. We evaluated various publicly available platforms that could be used in research and education on the governance of social-ecological systems. The aims of the various platforms are distinct, and this is noticeable in the differences in their user-friendliness and their adaptability to novel research questions. The more easily accessible platforms are useful for prototyping experiments and for educational purposes to illustrate theoretical concepts. To advance novel research aims, more elaborate programming experience is required to either implement an experiment from scratch or adjust existing experimental software. There is no ideal platform best suited for all possible use cases, but we have provided a menu of options and their associated trade-offs.

We find that the flow of attention on the Web forms a directed, tree-like structure implying the time-sensitive browsing behavior of users. Using the data of a news sharing website, we construct clickstream networks in which nodes are news stories and edges represent the consecutive clicks between two stories. To identify the flow direction of clickstreams, we define the “flow distance” of nodes (L_i), which measures the average number of steps a random walker takes to reach the ith node. It is observed that L_i is related with the clicks (C_i) to news stories and the age (T_i) of stories. Putting these three variables together help us understand the rise and decay of news stories from a network perspective. We also find that the studied clickstream networks preserve a stable structure over time, leading to the scaling between users and clicks. The universal scaling behavior is confirmed by the 1,000 Web forums. We suggest that the tree-like, stable structure of clickstream networks reveals the time-sensitive preference of users in online browsing. To test our assumption, we discuss three models on individual browsing behavior, and compare the simulation results with empirical data.

The planetary boundary framework constitutes an opportunity for decision makers to define climate policy through the lens of adaptive governance. Here, we use the DICE model to analyze the set of adaptive climate policies that comply with the two planetary boundaries related to climate change: (1) staying below a CO₂ concentration of 550 ppm until 2100 and (2) returning to 350 ppm in 2100. Our results enable decision makers to assess the following milestones: (1) a minimum of 33% reduction of CO₂ emissions by 2055 in order to stay below 550 ppm by 2100 (this milestone goes up to 46% in the case of delayed policies); and (2) carbon neutrality and the effective implementation of innovative geoengineering technologies (10% negative emissions) before 2060 in order to return to 350 ppm in 2100, under the assumption of getting out of the baseline scenario without delay. Finally, we emphasize the need to use adaptive path-based approach instead of single point target for climate policy design.

Background: The discovery of genetic associations is an important factor in the understanding of human illness to derive disease pathways. Identifying multiple interacting genetic mutations associated with disease remains challenging in studying the etiology of complex diseases. And although recently new single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at genes implicated in immune response, cholesterol/lipid metabolism, and cell membrane processes have been confirmed by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to be associated with late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD), a percentage of AD heritability continues to be unexplained. We try to find other genetic variants that may influence LOAD risk utilizing data mining methods.

Methods: Two different approaches were devised to select SNPs associated with LOAD in a publicly available GWAS data set consisting of three cohorts. In both approaches, single-locus analysis (logistic regression) was conducted to filter the data with a less conservative p-value than the Bonferroni threshold; this resulted in a subset of SNPs used next in multi-locus analysis (random forest (RF)). In the second approach, we took into account prior biological knowledge, and performed sample stratification and linkage disequilibrium (LD) in addition to logistic regression analysis to preselect loci to input into the RF classifier construction step.

Results: The first approach gave 199 SNPs mostly associated with genes in calcium signaling, cell adhesion, endocytosis, immune response, and synaptic function. These SNPs together with APOE and GAB2 SNPs formed a predictive subset for LOAD status with an average error of 9.8% using 10-fold cross validation (CV) in RF modeling. Nineteen variants in LD with ST5, TRPC1, ATG10, ANO3, NDUFA12, and NISCH respectively, genes linked directly or indirectly with neurobiology, were identified with the second approach. These variants were part of a model that included APOE and GAB2 SNPs to predict LOAD risk which produced a 10-fold CV average error of 17.5% in the classification modeling.

Conclusions: With the two proposed approaches, we identified a large subset of SNPs in genes mostly clustered around specific pathways/functions and a smaller set of SNPs, within or in proximity to five genes not previously reported, that may be relevant for the prediction/understanding of AD.

Background: Glioblastoma is the most aggressive primary central nervous tumor and carries a very poor prognosis. Invasion precludes effective treatment and virtually assures tumor recurrence. In the current study, we applied analytical and bioinformatics approaches to identify a set of microRNAs (miRs) from several different human glioblastoma cell lines that exhibit significant differential expression between migratory (edge) and migration-restricted (core) cell populations. The hypothesis of the study is that differential expression of miRs provides an epigenetic mechanism to drive cell migration and invasion.

Results: Our research data comprise gene expression values for a set of 805 human miRs collected from matched pairs of migratory and migration-restricted cell populations from seven different glioblastoma cell lines. We identified 62 down-regulated and 2 up-regulated miRs that exhibit significant differential expression in the migratory (edge) cell population compared to matched migration-restricted (core) cells. We then conducted target prediction and pathway enrichment analysis with these miRs to investigate potential associated gene and pathway targets. Several miRs in the list appear to directly target apoptosis related genes. The analysis identifies a set of genes that are predicted by 3 different algorithms, further emphasizing the potential validity of these miRs to promote glioblastoma.

Conclusions: The results of this study identify a set of miRs with potential for decreased expression in invasive glioblastoma cells. The verification of these miRs and their associated targeted proteins provides new insights for further investigation into therapeutic interventions. The methodological approaches employed here could be applied to the study of other diseases to provide biomedical researchers and clinicians with increased opportunities for therapeutic interventions.

In traditional public good experiments participants receive an endowment from the experimenter that can be invested in a public good or kept in a private account. In this paper we present an experimental environment where participants can invest time during five days to contribute to a public good. Participants can make contributions to a linear public good by logging into a web application and performing virtual actions. We compared four treatments, with different group sizes and information of (relative) performance of other groups. We find that information feedback about performance of other groups has a small positive effect if we control for various attributes of the groups. Moreover, we find a significant effect of the contributions of others in the group in the previous day on the number of points earned in the current day. Our results confirm that people participate more when participants in their group participate more, and are influenced by information about the relative performance of other groups.