ASU Scholarship Showcase

High-resolution, global quantification of fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions is emerging as a critical need in carbon cycle science and climate policy. We build upon a previously developed fossil fuel data assimilation system (FFDAS) for estimating global high-resolution fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions. We have improved the underlying observationally based data sources, expanded the approach through treatment of separate emitting sectors including a new pointwise database of global power plants, and extended the results to cover a 1997 to 2010 time series at a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Long-term trend analysis of the resulting global emissions shows subnational spatial structure in large active economies such as the United States, China, and India. These three countries, in particular, show different long-term trends and exploration of the trends in nighttime lights, and population reveal a decoupling of population and emissions at the subnational level. Analysis of shorter-term variations reveals the impact of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis with widespread negative emission anomalies across the U.S. and Europe. We have used a center of mass (CM) calculation as a compact metric to express the time evolution of spatial patterns in fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions. The global emission CM has moved toward the east and somewhat south between 1997 and 2010, driven by the increase in emissions in China and South Asia over this time period. Analysis at the level of individual countries reveals per capita CO[subscript 2] emission migration in both Russia and India. The per capita emission CM holds potential as a way to succinctly analyze subnational shifts in carbon intensity over time. Uncertainties are generally lower than the previous version of FFDAS due mainly to an improved nightlight data set.

Background: Increasing our understanding of the factors affecting the severity of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in different regions of the world could lead to improved clinical practice and mitigation strategies for future influenza pandemics. Even though a number of studies have shed light into the risk factors associated with severe outcomes of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza infections in different populations (e.g., [1-5]), analyses of the determinants of mortality risk spanning multiple pandemic waves and geographic regions are scarce. Between-country differences in the mortality burden of the 2009 pandemic could be linked to differences in influenza case management, underlying population health, or intrinsic differences in disease transmission [6]. Additional studies elucidating the determinants of disease severity globally are warranted to guide prevention efforts in future influenza pandemics.

In Mexico, the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic was characterized by a three-wave pattern occurring in the spring, summer, and fall of 2009 with substantial geographical heterogeneity [7]. A recent study suggests that Mexico experienced high excess mortality burden during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic relative to other countries [6]. However, an assessment of potential factors that contributed to the relatively high pandemic death toll in Mexico are lacking. Here, we fill this gap by analyzing a large series of laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases, hospitalizations, and deaths monitored by the Mexican Social Security medical system during April 1 through December 31, 2009 in Mexico. In particular, we quantify the association between disease severity, hospital admission delays, and neuraminidase inhibitor use by demographic characteristics, pandemic wave, and geographic regions of Mexico.

Methods: We analyzed a large series of laboratory-confirmed pandemic A/H1N1 influenza cases from a prospective surveillance system maintained by the Mexican Social Security system, April-December 2009. We considered a spectrum of disease severity encompassing outpatient visits, hospitalizations, and deaths, and recorded demographic and geographic information on individual patients. We assessed the impact of neuraminidase inhibitor treatment and hospital admission delay (≤ > 2 days after disease onset) on the risk of death by multivariate logistic regression.

Results: Approximately 50% of all A/H1N1-positive patients received antiviral medication during the Spring and Summer 2009 pandemic waves in Mexico while only 9% of A/H1N1 cases received antiviral medications during the fall wave (P < 0.0001). After adjustment for age, gender, and geography, antiviral treatment significantly reduced the risk of death (OR = 0.52 (95% CI: 0.30, 0.90)) while longer hospital admission delays increased the risk of death by 2.8-fold (95% CI: 2.25, 3.41).

Conclusions: Our findings underscore the potential impact of decreasing admission delays and increasing antiviral use to mitigate the mortality burden of future influenza pandemics.

Large urban emissions of greenhouse gases result in large atmospheric enhancements relative to background that are easily measured. Using CO₂ mole fractions and Δ¹⁴C and δ¹³C values of CO₂ in the Los Angeles megacity observed in inland Pasadena (2006–2013) and coastal Palos Verdes peninsula (autumn 2009–2013), we have determined time series for CO₂ contributions from fossil fuel combustion (C_ff) for both sites and broken those down into contributions from petroleum and/or gasoline and natural gas burning for Pasadena. We find a 10 % reduction in Pasadena C_ff during the Great Recession of 2008–2010, which is consistent with the bottom-up inventory determined by the California Air Resources Board. The isotopic variations and total atmospheric CO₂ from our observations are used to infer seasonality of natural gas and petroleum combustion. The trend of CO₂ contributions to the atmosphere from natural gas combustion is out of phase with the seasonal cycle of total natural gas combustion seasonal patterns in bottom-up inventories but is consistent with the seasonality of natural gas usage by the area's electricity generating power plants. For petroleum, the inferred seasonality of CO₂ contributions from burning petroleum is delayed by several months relative to usage indicated by statewide gasoline taxes. Using the high-resolution Hestia-LA data product to compare C_ff from parts of the basin sampled by winds at different times of year, we find that variations in observed fossil fuel CO₂ reflect seasonal variations in wind direction. The seasonality of the local CO₂ excess from fossil fuel combustion along the coast, on Palos Verdes peninsula, is higher in autumn and winter than spring and summer, almost completely out of phase with that from Pasadena, also because of the annual variations of winds in the region. Variations in fossil fuel CO₂ signals are consistent with sampling the bottom-up Hestia-LA fossil CO₂ emissions product for sub-city source regions in the LA megacity domain when wind directions are considered.

Atmospheric CO₂ inversions estimate surface carbon fluxes from an optimal fit to atmospheric CO₂ measurements, usually including prior constraints on the flux estimates. Eleven sets of carbon flux estimates are compared, generated by different inversions systems that vary in their inversions methods, choice of atmospheric data, transport model and prior information. The inversions were run for at least 5 yr in the period between 1990 and 2010. Mean fluxes for 2001–2004, seasonal cycles, interannual variability and trends are compared for the tropics and northern and southern extra-tropics, and separately for land and ocean. Some continental/basin-scale subdivisions are also considered where the atmospheric network is denser. Four-year mean fluxes are reasonably consistent across inversions at global/latitudinal scale, with a large total (land plus ocean) carbon uptake in the north (−3.4 Pg C yr^-1 (±0.5 Pg C yr^-1 standard deviation), with slightly more uptake over land than over ocean), a significant although more variable source over the tropics (1.6 ± 0.9 Pg C yr^-1) and a compensatory sink of similar magnitude in the south (−1.4 ± 0.5 Pg C yr^-1) corresponding mainly to an ocean sink. Largest differences across inversions occur in the balance between tropical land sources and southern land sinks. Interannual variability (IAV) in carbon fluxes is larger for land than ocean regions (standard deviation around 1.06 versus 0.33 Pg C yr[superscript −1] for the 1996–2007 period), with much higher consistency among the inversions for the land. While the tropical land explains most of the IAV (standard deviation ~ 0.65 Pg C yr^-1), the northern and southern land also contribute (standard deviation ~ 0.39 Pg C yr^-1). Most inversions tend to indicate an increase of the northern land carbon uptake from late 1990s to 2008 (around 0.1 Pg C yr^-1, predominantly in North Asia. The mean seasonal cycle appears to be well constrained by the atmospheric data over the northern land (at the continental scale), but still highly dependent on the prior flux seasonality over the ocean. Finally we provide recommendations to interpret the regional fluxes, along with the uncertainty estimates.

This paper presents an analysis of methane emissions from the Los Angeles Basin at monthly timescales across a 4-year time period – from September 2011 to August 2015. Using observations acquired by a ground-based near-infrared remote sensing instrument on Mount Wilson, California, combined with atmospheric CH₄–CO₂ tracer–tracer correlations, we observed −18 to +22 % monthly variability in CH₄ : CO₂ from the annual mean in the Los Angeles Basin. Top-down estimates of methane emissions for the basin also exhibit significant monthly variability (−19 to +31 % from annual mean and a maximum month-to-month change of 47 %). During this period, methane emissions consistently peaked in the late summer/early fall and winter. The estimated annual methane emissions did not show a statistically significant trend over the 2011 to 2015 time period.

In vitro models that mimic in vivo host-pathogen interactions are needed to evaluate candidate drugs that inhibit bacterial virulence traits. We established a new approach to study Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilm susceptibility on biotic surfaces, using a three-dimensional (3-D) lung epithelial cell model. P. aeruginosa formed antibiotic resistant biofilms on 3-D cells without affecting cell viability. The biofilm-inhibitory activity of antibiotics and/or the anti-biofilm peptide DJK-5 were evaluated on 3-D cells compared to a plastic surface, in medium with and without fetal bovine serum (FBS). In both media, aminoglycosides were more efficacious in the 3-D cell model. In serum-free medium, most antibiotics (except polymyxins) showed enhanced efficacy when 3-D cells were present. In medium with FBS, colistin was less efficacious in the 3-D cell model. DJK-5 exerted potent inhibition of P. aeruginosa association with both substrates, only in serum-free medium. DJK-5 showed stronger inhibitory activity against P. aeruginosa associated with plastic compared to 3-D cells. The combined addition of tobramycin and DJK-5 exhibited more potent ability to inhibit P. aeruginosa association with both substrates. In conclusion, lung epithelial cells influence the efficacy of most antimicrobials against P. aeruginosa biofilm formation, which in turn depends on the presence or absence of FBS.

This study presents the first global transcriptional profiling and phenotypic characterization of the major human opportunistic fungal pathogen, Candida albicans, grown in spaceflight conditions. Microarray analysis revealed that C. albicans subjected to short-term spaceflight culture differentially regulated 452 genes compared to synchronous ground controls, which represented 8.3% of the analyzed ORFs. Spaceflight-cultured C. albicans–induced genes involved in cell aggregation (similar to flocculation), which was validated by microscopic and flow cytometry analysis. We also observed enhanced random budding of spaceflight-cultured cells as opposed to bipolar budding patterns for ground samples, in accordance with the gene expression data. Furthermore, genes involved in antifungal agent and stress resistance were differentially regulated in spaceflight, including induction of ABC transporters and members of the major facilitator family, downregulation of ergosterol-encoding genes, and upregulation of genes involved in oxidative stress resistance.

Finally, downregulation of genes involved in actin cytoskeleton was observed. Interestingly, the transcriptional regulator Cap1 and over 30% of the Cap1 regulon was differentially expressed in spaceflight-cultured C. albicans. A potential role for Cap1 in the spaceflight response of C. albicans is suggested, as this regulator is involved in random budding, cell aggregation, and oxidative stress resistance; all related to observed spaceflight-associated changes of C. albicans. While culture of C. albicans in microgravity potentiates a global change in gene expression that could induce a virulence-related phenotype, no increased virulence in a murine intraperitoneal (i.p.) infection model was observed under the conditions of this study. Collectively, our data represent an important basis for the assessment of the risk that commensal flora could play during human spaceflight missions. Furthermore, since the low fluid-shear environment of microgravity is relevant to physical forces encountered by pathogens during the infection process, insights gained from this study could identify novel infectious disease mechanisms, with downstream benefits for the general public.

Background: Highly refined surveillance data on the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic are crucial to quantify the spatial and temporal characteristics of the pandemic. There is little information about the spatial-temporal dynamics of pandemic influenza in South America. Here we provide a quantitative description of the age-specific morbidity pandemic patterns across administrative areas of Peru.

Methods: We used daily cases of influenza-like-illness, tests for A/H1N1 influenza virus infections, and laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases reported to the epidemiological surveillance system of Peru's Ministry of Health from May 1 to December 31, 2009. We analyzed the geographic spread of the pandemic waves and their association with the winter school vacation period, demographic factors, and absolute humidity. We also estimated the reproduction number and quantified the association between the winter school vacation period and the age distribution of cases.

Results: The national pandemic curve revealed a bimodal winter pandemic wave, with the first peak limited to school age children in the Lima metropolitan area, and the second peak more geographically widespread. The reproduction number was estimated at 1.6–2.2 for the Lima metropolitan area and 1.3–1.5 in the rest of Peru. We found a significant association between the timing of the school vacation period and changes in the age distribution of cases, while earlier pandemic onset was correlated with large population size. By contrast there was no association between pandemic dynamics and absolute humidity.

Conclusions: Our results indicate substantial spatial variation in pandemic patterns across Peru, with two pandemic waves of varying timing and impact by age and region. Moreover, the Peru data suggest a hierarchical transmission pattern of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 driven by large population centers. The higher reproduction number of the first pandemic wave could be explained by high contact rates among school-age children, the age group most affected during this early wave.

Attributing observed CO2 variations to human or natural cause is critical to deducing and tracking emissions from observations. We have used in situ CO2, CO, and planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) measurements recorded during the CalNex-LA (CARB et al., 2008) ground campaign of 15 May-15 June 2010, in Pasadena, CA, to deduce the diurnally varying anthropogenic component of observed CO2 in the megacity of Los Angeles (LA). This affordable and simple technique, validated by carbon isotope observations and WRF-STILT (Weather Research and Forecasting model - Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport model) predictions, is shown to robustly attribute observed CO2 variation to anthropogenic or biogenic origin over the entire diurnal cycle. During CalNex-LA, local fossil fuel combustion contributed up to similar to 50% of the observed CO2 enhancement overnight, and similar to 100% of the enhancement near midday. This suggests that sufficiently accurate total column CO2 observations recorded near midday, such as those from the GOSAT or OCO-2 satellites, can potentially be used to track anthropogenic emissions from the LA megacity.

The probiotic effects of Lactobacillus reuteri have been speculated to partly depend on its capacity to produce the antimicrobial substance reuterin during the reduction of glycerol in the gut. In this study, the potential of this process to protect human intestinal epithelial cells against infection with Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium was investigated. We used a three-dimensional (3-D) organotypic model of human colonic epithelium that was previously validated and applied to study interactions between S. Typhimurium and the intestinal epithelium that lead to enteric salmonellosis. Using this model system, we show that L. reuteri protects the intestinal cells against the early stages of Salmonella infection and that this effect is significantly increased when L. reuteri is stimulated to produce reuterin from glycerol. More specifically, the reuterin-containing ferment of L. reuteri caused a reduction in Salmonella adherence and invasion (1 log unit), and intracellular survival (2 log units). In contrast, the L. reuteri ferment without reuterin stimulated growth of the intracellular Salmonella population with 1 log unit. The short-term exposure to reuterin or the reuterin-containing ferment had no observed negative impact on intestinal epithelial cell health. However, long-term exposure (24 h) induced a complete loss of cell-cell contact within the epithelial aggregates and compromised cell viability. Collectively, these results shed light on a potential role for reuterin in inhibiting Salmonella-induced intestinal infections and may support the combined application of glycerol and L. reuteri. While future in vitro and in vivo studies of reuterin on intestinal health should fine-tune our understanding of the mechanistic effects, in particular in the presence of a complex gut microbiota, this the first report of a reuterin effect on the enteric infection process in any mammalian cell type.