ASU Scholarship Showcase

This paper studies the effect of targeted observations on state and parameter estimates determined with Kalman filter data assimilation (DA) techniques. We first provide an analytical result demonstrating that targeting observations within the Kalman filter for a linear model can significantly reduce state estimation error as opposed to fixed or randomly located observations. We next conduct observing system simulation experiments for a chaotic model of meteorological interest, where we demonstrate that the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with targeted observations based on largest ensemble variance is skillful in providing more accurate state estimates than the LETKF with randomly located observations. Additionally, we find that a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter parameter estimation method accurately updates model parameters within the targeted observation context to further improve state estimation.

Attitudes and habits are extremely resistant to change, but a disruption of the magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to bring long-term, massive societal changes. During the pandemic, people are being compelled to experience new ways of interacting, working, learning, shopping, traveling, and eating meals. Going forward, a critical question is whether these experiences will result in changed behaviors and preferences in the long term. This paper presents initial findings on the likelihood of long-term changes in telework, daily travel, restaurant patronage, and air travel based on survey data collected from adults in the United States in Spring 2020. These data suggest that a sizable fraction of the increase in telework and decreases in both business air travel and restaurant patronage are likely here to stay. As for daily travel modes, public transit may not fully recover its pre-pandemic ridership levels, but many of our respondents are planning to bike and walk more than they used to. These data reflect the responses of a sample that is higher income and more highly educated than the US population. The response of these particular groups to the COVID-19 pandemic is perhaps especially important to understand, however, because their consumption patterns give them a large influence on many sectors of the economy.

Cities in the Global South face rapid urbanization challenges and often suffer an acute lack of infrastructure and governance capacities. Smart Cities Mission, in India, launched in 2015, aims to offer a novel approach for urban renewal of 100 cities following an area‐based development approach, where the use of ICT and digital technologies is particularly emphasized. This article presents a critical review of the design and implementation framework of this new urban renewal program across selected case‐study cities. The article examines the claims of the so‐called “smart cities” against actual urban transformation on‐ground and evaluates how “inclusive” and “sustainable” these developments are. We quantify the scale and coverage of the smart city urban renewal projects in the cities to highlight who the program includes and excludes. The article also presents a statistical analysis of the sectoral focus and budgetary allocations of the projects under the Smart Cities Mission to find an inherent bias in these smart city initiatives in terms of which types of development they promote and the ones it ignores. The findings indicate that a predominant emphasis on digital urban renewal of selected precincts and enclaves, branded as “smart cities,” leads to deepening social polarization and gentrification. The article offers crucial urban planning lessons for designing ICT‐driven urban renewal projects, while addressing critical questions around inclusion and sustainability in smart city ventures.`

An interesting occurrence of a Rossby wave breaking event observed during the VORCORE experiment is presented and explained. Twenty-seven balloons were launched inside the Antarctic polar vortex. Almost all of these balloons evolved in the stratosphere around 500K within the vortex, except the one launched on 28 October 2005. In this case, the balloon was caught within a tongue of high potential vorticity (PV), and was ejected from the polar vortex. The evolution of this event is studied for the period between 19 and 25 November 2005. It is found that at the beginning of this period, the polar vortex experienced distortions due to the presence of Rossby waves. Then, these waves break and a tongue of high PV develops. On 25 November, the tongue became separated from the vortex and the balloon was ejected into the surf zone. Lagrangian simulations demonstrate that the air masses surrounding the balloon after its ejection were originating from the vortex edge. The wave breaking and the development of the tongue are confined within a region where a planetary Quasi-Stationary Wave 1 (QSW1) induces wind speeds with weaker values. The QSW1 causes asymmetry in the wind speed and the horizontal PV gradient along the edge of the polar vortex, resulting in a localized jet. Rossby waves with smaller scales propagating on top of this jet amplify as they enter the jet exit region and then break. The role of the QSW1 on the formation of the weak flow conditions that caused the non-linear wave breaking observed near the vortex edge is confirmed by three-dimensional numerical simulations using forcing with and without the contribution of the QSW1.

Accessibility is increasingly used as a metric when evaluating changes to public transport systems. Transit travel times contain variation depending on when one departs relative to when a transit vehicle arrives, and how well transfers are coordinated given a particular timetable. In addition, there is necessarily uncertainty in the value of the accessibility metric during sketch planning processes, due to scenarios which are underspecified because detailed schedule information is not yet available. This article presents a method to extend the concept of "reliable" accessibility to transit to address the first issue, and create confidence intervals and hypothesis tests to address the second.

There is a need for indicators of transportation-land use system quality that are understandable to a wide range of stakeholders, and which can provide immediate feedback on the quality of interactively designed scenarios. Location-based accessibility indicators are promising candidates, but indicator values can vary strongly depending on time of day and transfer wait times. Capturing this variation increases complexity, slowing down calculations. We present new methods for rapid yet rigorous computation of accessibility metrics, allowing immediate feedback during early-stage transit planning, while being rigorous enough for final analyses. Our approach is statistical, characterizing the uncertainty and variability in accessibility metrics due to differences in departure time and headway-based scenario specification. The analysis is carried out on a detailed multi-modal network model including both public transportation and streets. Land use data are represented at high resolution. These methods have been implemented as open-source software running on commodity cloud infrastructure. Networks are constructed from standard open data sources, and scenarios are built in a map-based web interface. We conclude with a case study, describing how these methods were applied in a long-term transportation planning process for metropolitan Amsterdam.

The probiotic effects of Lactobacillus reuteri have been speculated to partly depend on its capacity to produce the antimicrobial substance reuterin during the reduction of glycerol in the gut. In this study, the potential of this process to protect human intestinal epithelial cells against infection with Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium was investigated. We used a three-dimensional (3-D) organotypic model of human colonic epithelium that was previously validated and applied to study interactions between S. Typhimurium and the intestinal epithelium that lead to enteric salmonellosis. Using this model system, we show that L. reuteri protects the intestinal cells against the early stages of Salmonella infection and that this effect is significantly increased when L. reuteri is stimulated to produce reuterin from glycerol. More specifically, the reuterin-containing ferment of L. reuteri caused a reduction in Salmonella adherence and invasion (1 log unit), and intracellular survival (2 log units). In contrast, the L. reuteri ferment without reuterin stimulated growth of the intracellular Salmonella population with 1 log unit. The short-term exposure to reuterin or the reuterin-containing ferment had no observed negative impact on intestinal epithelial cell health. However, long-term exposure (24 h) induced a complete loss of cell-cell contact within the epithelial aggregates and compromised cell viability. Collectively, these results shed light on a potential role for reuterin in inhibiting Salmonella-induced intestinal infections and may support the combined application of glycerol and L. reuteri. While future in vitro and in vivo studies of reuterin on intestinal health should fine-tune our understanding of the mechanistic effects, in particular in the presence of a complex gut microbiota, this the first report of a reuterin effect on the enteric infection process in any mammalian cell type.

Extra-intestinal pathogenic E. coli (ExPEC), including avian pathogenic E. coli (APEC), pose a considerable threat to both human and animal health, with illness causing substantial economic loss. APEC strain χ7122 (O78∶K80∶H9), containing three large plasmids [pChi7122-1 (IncFIB/FIIA-FIC), pChi7122-2 (IncFII), and pChi7122-3 (IncI₂)]; and a small plasmid pChi7122-4 (ColE2-like), has been used for many years as a model strain to study the molecular mechanisms of ExPEC pathogenicity and zoonotic potential. We previously sequenced and characterized the plasmid pChi7122-1 and determined its importance in systemic APEC infection; however the roles of the other pChi7122 plasmids were still ambiguous. Herein we present the sequence of the remaining pChi7122 plasmids, confirming that pChi7122-2 and pChi7122-3 encode an ABC iron transport system (eitABCD) and a putative type IV fimbriae respectively, whereas pChi7122-4 is a cryptic plasmid. New features were also identified, including a gene cluster on pChi7122-2 that is not present in other E. coli strains but is found in Salmonella serovars and is predicted to encode the sugars catabolic pathways. In vitro evaluation of the APEC χ7122 derivative strains with the three large plasmids, either individually or in combinations, provided new insights into the role of plasmids in biofilm formation, bile and acid tolerance, and the interaction of E. coli strains with 3-D cultures of intestinal epithelial cells. In this study, we show that the nature and combinations of plasmids, as well as the background of the host strains, have an effect on these phenomena. Our data reveal new insights into the role of extra-chromosomal sequences in fitness and diversity of ExPEC in their phenotypes.

Strategies are needed to improve repopulation of decellularized lung scaffolds with stromal and functional epithelial cells. We demonstrate that decellularized mouse lungs recellularized in a dynamic low fluid shear suspension bioreactor, termed the rotating wall vessel (RWV), contained more cells with decreased apoptosis, increased proliferation and enhanced levels of total RNA compared to static recellularization conditions. These results were observed with two relevant mouse cell types: bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stromal (stem) cells (MSCs) and alveolar type II cells (C10). In addition, MSCs cultured in decellularized lungs under static but not bioreactor conditions formed multilayered aggregates. Gene expression and immunohistochemical analyses suggested differentiation of MSCs into collagen I-producing fibroblast-like cells in the bioreactor, indicating enhanced potential for remodeling of the decellularized scaffold matrix. In conclusion, dynamic suspension culture is promising for enhancing repopulation of decellularized lungs, and could contribute to remodeling the extracellular matrix of the scaffolds with subsequent effects on differentiation and functionality of inoculated cells.

Physical mechanisms of incongruency between observations and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model predictions are examined. Limitations of evaluation are constrained by (i) parameterizations of model physics, (ii) parameterizations of input data, (iii) model resolution, and (iv) flux observation resolution. Observations from a new 22.1-m flux tower situated within a residential neighborhood in Phoenix, Arizona, are utilized to evaluate the ability of the urbanized WRF to resolve finescale surface energy balance (SEB) when using the urban classes derived from the 30-m-resolution National Land Cover Database. Modeled SEB response to a large seasonal variation of net radiation forcing was tested during synoptically quiescent periods of high pressure in winter 2011 and premonsoon summer 2012. Results are presented from simulations employing five nested domains down to 333-m horizontal resolution. A comparative analysis of model cases testing parameterization of physical processes was done using four configurations of urban parameterization for the bulk urban scheme versus three representations with the Urban Canopy Model (UCM) scheme, and also for two types of planetary boundary layer parameterization: the local Mellor–Yamada–Janjić scheme and the nonlocal Yonsei University scheme. Diurnal variation in SEB constituent fluxes is examined in relation to surface-layer stability and modeled diagnostic variables. Improvement is found when adapting UCM for Phoenix with reduced errors in the SEB components. Finer model resolution is seen to have insignificant (<1 standard deviation) influence on mean absolute percent difference of 30-min diurnal mean SEB terms.