ASU Scholarship Showcase

The interplay between individual behaviors and epidemic dynamics in complex networks is a topic of recent interest. In particular, individuals can obtain different types of information about the disease and respond by altering their behaviors, and this can affect the spreading dynamics, possibly in a significant way. We propose a model where individuals' behavioral response is based on a generic type of local information, i.e., the number of neighbors that has been infected with the disease. Mathematically, the response can be characterized by a reduction in the transmission rate by a factor that depends on the number of infected neighbors. Utilizing the standard susceptible-infected-susceptible and susceptible-infected-recovery dynamical models for epidemic spreading, we derive a theoretical formula for the epidemic threshold and provide numerical verification. Our analysis lays on a solid quantitative footing the intuition that individual behavioral response can in general suppress epidemic spreading. Furthermore, we find that the hub nodes play the role of “double-edged sword” in that they can either suppress or promote outbreak, depending on their responses to the epidemic, providing additional support for the idea that these nodes are key to controlling epidemic spreading in complex networks.

The pore- and micro-structural features of a novel binding material based on the carbonation of waste metallic iron powder are reported in this paper. The binder contains metallic iron powder as the major ingredient, followed by additives containing silica and alumina to facilitate favorable reaction product formation. Compressive strengths sufficient for a majority of concrete applications are attained. The material pore structure is investigated primarily through mercury intrusion porosimetry whereas electron microscopy is used for microstructural characterization. Reduction in the overall porosity and the average pore size with an increase in carbonation duration from 1 day to 4 days is noticed. The pore structure features are used in predictive models for gas and moisture transport (water vapor diffusivity and moisture permeability) through the porous medium which dictates its long-term durability when used in structural applications. Comparisons of the pore structure with those of a Portland cement paste are also provided. The morphology of the reaction products in the iron-based binder, and the distribution of constituent elements in the microstructure are also reported.

Understanding the dynamics of human movements is key to issues of significant current interest such as behavioral prediction, recommendation, and control of epidemic spreading. We collect and analyze big data sets of human movements in both cyberspace (through browsing of websites) and physical space (through mobile towers) and find a superlinear scaling relation between the mean frequency of visit〈f〉and its fluctuation σ : σ ∼〈f⟩^β with β ≈ 1.2. The probability distribution of the visiting frequency is found to be a stretched exponential function. We develop a model incorporating two essential ingredients, preferential return and exploration, and show that these are necessary for generating the scaling relation extracted from real data. A striking finding is that human movements in cyberspace and physical space are strongly correlated, indicating a distinctive behavioral identifying characteristic and implying that the behaviors in one space can be used to predict those in the other.

The focus of this investigation is on a first assessment of the predictive capabilities of nonlinear geometric reduced order models for the prediction of the large displacement and stress fields of panels with localized geometric defects, the case of a notch serving to exemplify the analysis. It is first demonstrated that the reduced order model of the notched panel does indeed provide a close match of the displacement and stress fields obtained from full finite element analyses for moderately large static and dynamic responses (peak displacement of 2 and 4 thicknesses). As might be expected, the reduced order model of the virgin panel would also yield a close approximation of the displacement field but not of the stress one. These observations then lead to two “enrichment” techniques seeking to superpose the notch effects on the virgin panel stress field so that a reduced order model of the latter can be used. A very good prediction of the full finite element stresses, for both static and dynamic analyses, is achieved with both enrichments.

Reserve requirements promote reliability by ensuring resources are available to rebalance the power system following random disturbances. However, reliability is not guaranteed when dispatch is limited by transmission constraints. In this work, we propose a modified form of reserve requirement that identifies response sets for distinct contingency scenarios. The approach disqualifies reserve from counting towards a particular scenario if transmission constraints are likely to render that reserve undeliverable. A decomposition algorithm for security-constrained unit commitment dynamically updates the response sets to address changing conditions. Testing on the RTS 96 test case demonstrates the approach applied in tandem with existing reserve policies to avoid situations where reserve is not deliverable due to transmission constraints. Operational implications of the proposed method are discussed.

In this paper, we present an approach to designing decentralized robot control policies that mimic certain microscopic and macroscopic behaviors of ants performing collective transport tasks. In prior work, we used a stochastic hybrid system model to characterize the observed team dynamics of ant group retrieval of a rigid load. We have also used macroscopic population dynamic models to design enzyme-inspired stochastic control policies that allocate a robotic swarm around multiple boundaries in a way that is robust to environmental variations. Here, we build on this prior work to synthesize stochastic robot attachment–detachment policies for tasks in which a robotic swarm must achieve non-uniform spatial distributions around multiple loads and transport them at a constant velocity. Three methods are presented for designing robot control policies that replicate the steady-state distributions, transient dynamics, and fluxes between states that we have observed in ant populations during group retrieval. The equilibrium population matching method can be used to achieve a desired transport team composition as quickly as possible; the transient matching method can control the transient population dynamics of the team while driving it to the desired composition; and the rate matching method regulates the rates at which robots join and leave a load during transport. We validate our model predictions in an agent-based simulation, verify that each controller design method produces successful transport of a load at a regulated velocity, and compare the advantages and disadvantages of each method.

Perchloroethylene (PCE) is a highly utilized solvent in the dry cleaning industry because of its cleaning effectiveness and relatively low cost to consumers. According to the 2006 U.S. Census, approximately 28,000 dry cleaning operations used PCE as their principal cleaning agent. Widespread use of PCE is problematic because of its adverse impacts on human health and environmental quality. As PCE use is curtailed, effective alternatives must be analyzed for their toxicity and impacts to human health and the environment. Potential alternatives to PCE in dry cleaning include dipropylene glycol n-butyl ether (DPnB) and dipropylene glycol tert-butyl ether (DPtB), both promising to pose a relatively smaller risk. To evaluate these two alternatives to PCE, we established and scored performance criteria, including chemical toxicity, employee and customer exposure levels, impacts on the general population, costs of each system, and cleaning efficacy. The scores received for PCE were 5, 5, 3, 5, 3, and 3, respectively, and DPnB and DPtB scored 3, 1, 2, 2, 4, and 4, respectively. An aggregate sum of the performance criteria yielded a favorably low score of “16” for both DPnB and DPtB compared to “24” for PCE. We conclude that DPnB and DPtB are preferable dry cleaning agents, exhibiting reduced human toxicity and a lesser adverse impact on human health and the environment compared to PCE, with comparable capital investments, and moderately higher annual operating costs.

We investigate near-field radiative heat transfer between Indium Tin Oxide (ITO) nanowire arrays which behave as type 1 and 2 hyperbolic metamaterials. Using spatial dispersion dependent effective medium theory to model the dielectric function of the nanowires, the impact of filling fraction on the heat transfer is analyzed. Depending on the filling fraction, it is possible to achieve both types of hyperbolic modes. At 150 nm vacuum gap, the heat transfer between the nanowires with 0.5 filling fraction can be 11 times higher than that between two bulk ITOs. For vacuum gaps less than 150 nm the heat transfer increases as the filling fraction decreases. Results obtained from this study will facilitate applications of ITO nanowires as hyperbolic metamaterials for energy systems.

Gold absorbers based on plasmonic tapered coaxial holes (PTCHs) are demonstrated theoretically and experimentally. An average absorption of over 0.93 is obtained theoretically in a broad wavelength range from 300 nm to 900 nm without polarization sensitivity due to the structural symmetry. Strong scattering of the incident light by the tapered coaxial holes is the main reason for the high absorption in the short wavelength range below about 550 nm, while gap surface plasmon polaritons propagating along the taper dominate the resonance-induced high absorption in the long wavelength range. Combining two PTCHs with different structural parameters can further enhance the absorption and thus increase the spectral bandwidth, which is verified by a sample fabricated by focused ion beam milling. This design is promising to be extended to other metals to realize effective and efficient light harvesting and absorption.

Over the past couple of decades, quality has been an area of increased focus. Multiple models and approaches have been proposed to measure the quality in the construction industry. This paper focuses on determining the quality of one of the types of roofing systems used in the construction industry, i.e., sprayed polyurethane foam roofs (SPF roofs). Thirty-seven urethane-coated SPF roofs that were installed in 2005/2006 were visually inspected to measure the percentage of blisters and repairs three times over a period of four years, six years, and seven years. A repairing criteria was established after a six-year mark based on the data that were reported to contractors as vulnerable roofs. Furthermore, the relation between four possible contributing time-of-installation factors—contractor, demographics, season, and difficulty (number of penetrations and size of the roof in square feet) that could affect the quality of the roof was determined. Demographics and difficulty did not affect the quality of the roofs, whereas the contractor and the season when the roof was installed did affect the quality of the roofs.