ASU Scholarship Showcase
This growing collection consists of scholarly works authored by ASU-affiliated faculty, staff, and community members, and it contains many open access articles. ASU-affiliated authors are encouraged to Share Your Work in KEEP.
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- Creators: Chowell-Puente, Gerardo
- Creators: Mangone, Marco
Background: The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden.
Methods: We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization.
Results: Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south–north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918–19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave.
Conclusions: A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918-19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality.
Background: On 31 March 2013, the first human infections with the novel influenza A/H7N9 virus were reported in Eastern China. The outbreak expanded rapidly in geographic scope and size, with a total of 132 laboratory-confirmed cases reported by 3 June 2013, in 10 Chinese provinces and Taiwan. The incidence of A/H7N9 cases has stalled in recent weeks, presumably as a consequence of live bird market closures in the most heavily affected areas. Here we compare the transmission potential of influenza A/H7N9 with that of other emerging pathogens and evaluate the impact of intervention measures in an effort to guide pandemic preparedness.
Methods: We used a Bayesian approach combined with a SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed) transmission model fitted to daily case data to assess the reproduction number (R) of A/H7N9 by province and to evaluate the impact of live bird market closures in April and May 2013. Simulation studies helped quantify the performance of our approach in the context of an emerging pathogen, where human-to-human transmission is limited and most cases arise from spillover events. We also used alternative approaches to estimate R based on individual-level information on prior exposure and compared the transmission potential of influenza A/H7N9 with that of other recent zoonoses.
Results: Estimates of R for the A/H7N9 outbreak were below the epidemic threshold required for sustained human-to-human transmission and remained near 0.1 throughout the study period, with broad 95% credible intervals by the Bayesian method (0.01 to 0.49). The Bayesian estimation approach was dominated by the prior distribution, however, due to relatively little information contained in the case data. We observe a statistically significant deceleration in growth rate after 6 April 2013, which is consistent with a reduction in A/H7N9 transmission associated with the preemptive closure of live bird markets. Although confidence intervals are broad, the estimated transmission potential of A/H7N9 appears lower than that of recent zoonotic threats, including avian influenza A/H5N1, swine influenza H3N2sw and Nipah virus.
Conclusion: Although uncertainty remains high in R estimates for H7N9 due to limited epidemiological information, all available evidence points to a low transmission potential. Continued monitoring of the transmission potential of A/H7N9 is critical in the coming months as intervention measures may be relaxed and seasonal factors could promote disease transmission in colder months.
In this study we characterized the relationship between temperature and mortality in central Arizona desert cities that have an extremely hot climate. Relationships between daily maximum apparent temperature (ATmax) and mortality for eight condition-specific causes and all-cause deaths were modeled for all residents and separately for males and females ages <65 and ≥65 during the months May-October for years 2000-2008. The most robust relationship was between ATmax on day of death and mortality from direct exposure to high environmental heat. For this condition-specific cause of death, the heat thresholds in all gender and age groups (ATmax = 90–97 °F; 32.2‒36.1 °C) were below local median seasonal temperatures in the study period (ATmax = 99.5 °F; 37.5 °C). Heat threshold was defined as ATmax at which the mortality ratio begins an exponential upward trend. Thresholds were identified in younger and older females for cardiac disease/stroke mortality (ATmax = 106 and 108 °F; 41.1 and 42.2 °C) with a one-day lag. Thresholds were also identified for mortality from respiratory diseases in older people (ATmax = 109 °F; 42.8 °C) and for all-cause mortality in females (ATmax = 107 °F; 41.7 °C) and males <65 years (ATmax = 102 °F; 38.9 °C). Heat-related mortality in a region that has already made some adaptations to predictable periods of extremely high temperatures suggests that more extensive and targeted heat-adaptation plans for climate change are needed in cities worldwide.
MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short non-coding RNAs that regulate gene output at the post-transcriptional level by targeting degenerate elements primarily in 3′untranslated regions (3′UTRs) of mRNAs. Individual miRNAs can regulate networks of hundreds of genes, yet for the majority of miRNAs few, if any, targets are known. Misexpression of miRNAs is also a major contributor to cancer progression, thus there is a critical need to validate miRNA targets in high-throughput to understand miRNAs' contribution to tumorigenesis. Here we introduce a novel high-throughput assay to detect miRNA targets in 3′UTRs, called Luminescent Identification of Functional Elements in 3′UTRs (3′LIFE). We demonstrate the feasibility of 3′LIFE using a data set of 275 human 3′UTRs and two cancer-relevant miRNAs, let-7c and miR-10b, and compare our results to alternative methods to detect miRNA targets throughout the genome. We identify a large number of novel gene targets for these miRNAs, with only 32% of hits being bioinformatically predicted and 27% directed by non-canonical interactions. Functional analysis of target genes reveals consistent roles for each miRNA as either a tumor suppressor (let-7c) or oncogenic miRNA (miR-10b), and preferentially target multiple genes within regulatory networks, suggesting 3′LIFE is a rapid and sensitive method to detect miRNA targets in high-throughput.
Background: 3′untranslated regions (3′UTRs) are poorly understood portions of eukaryotic mRNAs essential for post-transcriptional gene regulation. Sequence elements in 3′UTRs can be target sites for regulatory molecules such as RNA binding proteins and microRNAs (miRNAs), and these interactions can exert significant control on gene networks. However, many such interactions remain uncharacterized due to a lack of high-throughput (HT) tools to study 3′UTR biology. HT cloning efforts such as the human ORFeome exemplify the potential benefits of genomic repositories for studying human disease, especially in relation to the discovery of biomarkers and targets for therapeutic agents. Currently there are no publicly available human 3′UTR libraries. To address this we have prepared the first version of the human 3′UTRome (h3′UTRome v1) library. The h3′UTRome is produced to a single high quality standard using the same recombinational cloning technology used for the human ORFeome, enabling universal operating methods and high throughput experimentation. The library is thoroughly sequenced and annotated with simple online access to information, and made publicly available through gene repositories at low cost to all scientists with minimal restriction.
Results: The first release of the h3′UTRome library comprises 1,461 human 3′UTRs cloned into Gateway® entry vectors, ready for downstream analyses. It contains 3′UTRs for 985 transcription factors, 156 kinases, 171 RNA binding proteins, and 186 other genes involved in gene regulation and in disease. We demonstrate the feasibility of the h3′UTRome library by screening a panel of 87 3′UTRs for targeting by two miRNAs: let-7c, which is implicated in tumorigenesis, and miR-221, which is implicated in atherosclerosis and heart disease. The panel is enriched with genes involved in the RAS signaling pathway, putative novel targets for the two miRNAs, as well as genes implicated in tumorigenesis and heart disease.
Conclusions: The h3′UTRome v1 library is a modular resource that can be utilized for high-throughput screens to identify regulatory interactions between trans-acting factors and 3′UTRs, Importantly, the library can be customized based on the specifications of the researcher, allowing the systematic study of human 3′UTR biology.
Background:
Pandemic influenza is said to 'shift mortality' to younger age groups; but also to spare a subpopulation of the elderly population. Does one of these effects dominate? Might this have important ramifications?
Methods: We estimated age-specific excess mortality rates for all-years for which data were available in the 20th century for Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the UK, and the USA for people older than 44 years of age. We modeled variation with age, and standardized estimates to allow direct comparison across age groups and countries. Attack rate data for four pandemics were assembled.
Results: For nearly all seasons, an exponential model characterized mortality data extremely well. For seasons of emergence and a variable number of seasons following, however, a subpopulation above a threshold age invariably enjoyed reduced mortality. 'Immune escape', a stepwise increase in mortality among the oldest elderly, was observed a number of seasons after both the A(H2N2) and A(H3N2) pandemics. The number of seasons from emergence to escape varied by country. For the latter pandemic, mortality rates in four countries increased for younger age groups but only in the season following that of emergence. Adaptation to both emergent viruses was apparent as a progressive decrease in mortality rates, which, with two exceptions, was seen only in younger age groups. Pandemic attack rate variation with age was estimated to be similar across four pandemics with very different mortality impact.
Conclusions: In all influenza pandemics of the 20th century, emergent viruses resembled those that had circulated previously within the lifespan of then-living people. Such individuals were relatively immune to the emergent strain, but this immunity waned with mutation of the emergent virus. An immune subpopulation complicates and may invalidate vaccine trials. Pandemic influenza does not 'shift' mortality to younger age groups; rather, the mortality level is reset by the virulence of the emerging virus and is moderated by immunity of past experience. In this study, we found that after immune escape, older age groups showed no further mortality reduction, despite their being the principal target of conventional influenza vaccines. Vaccines incorporating variants of pandemic viruses seem to provide little benefit to those previously immune. If attack rates truly are similar across pandemics, it must be the case that immunity to the pandemic virus does not prevent infection, but only mitigates the consequences.
Background: Tissue-specific RNA plasticity broadly impacts the development, tissue identity and adaptability of all organisms, but changes in composition, expression levels and its impact on gene regulation in different somatic tissues are largely unknown. Here we developed a new method, polyA-tagging and sequencing (PAT-Seq) to isolate high-quality tissue-specific mRNA from Caenorhabditis elegans intestine, pharynx and body muscle tissues and study changes in their tissue-specific transcriptomes and 3’UTRomes.
Results: We have identified thousands of novel genes and isoforms differentially expressed between these three tissues. The intestine transcriptome is expansive, expressing over 30% of C. elegans mRNAs, while muscle transcriptomes are smaller but contain characteristic unique gene signatures. Active promoter regions in all three tissues reveal both known and novel enriched tissue-specific elements, along with putative transcription factors, suggesting novel tissue-specific modes of transcription initiation. We have precisely mapped approximately 20,000 tissue-specific polyadenylation sites and discovered that about 30% of transcripts in somatic cells use alternative polyadenylation in a tissue-specific manner, with their 3’UTR isoforms significantly enriched with microRNA targets.
Conclusions: For the first time, PAT-Seq allowed us to directly study tissue specific gene expression changes in an in vivo setting and compare these changes between three somatic tissues from the same organism at single-base resolution within the same experiment. We pinpoint precise tissue-specific transcriptome rearrangements and for the first time link tissue-specific alternative polyadenylation to miRNA regulation, suggesting novel and unexplored tissue-specific post-transcriptional regulatory networks in somatic cells.
mRNA expression dynamics promote and maintain the identity of somatic tissues in living organisms; however, their impact in post-transcriptional gene regulation in these processes is not fully understood. Here, we applied the PAT-Seq approach to systematically isolate, sequence, and map tissue-specific mRNA from five highly studied Caenorhabditis elegans somatic tissues: GABAergic and NMDA neurons, arcade and intestinal valve cells, seam cells, and hypodermal tissues, and studied their mRNA expression dynamics. The integration of these datasets with previously profiled transcriptomes of intestine, pharynx, and body muscle tissues, precisely assigns tissue-specific expression dynamics for 60% of all annotated C. elegans protein-coding genes, providing an important resource for the scientific community. The mapping of 15,956 unique high-quality tissue-specific polyA sites in all eight somatic tissues reveals extensive tissue-specific 3′untranslated region (3′UTR) isoform switching through alternative polyadenylation (APA) . Almost all ubiquitously transcribed genes use APA and harbor miRNA targets in their 3′UTRs, which are commonly lost in a tissue-specific manner, suggesting widespread usage of post-transcriptional gene regulation modulated through APA to fine tune tissue-specific protein expression. Within this pool, the human disease gene C. elegans orthologs rack-1 and tct-1 use APA to switch to shorter 3′UTR isoforms in order to evade miRNA regulation in the body muscle tissue, resulting in increased protein expression needed for proper body muscle function. Our results highlight a major positive regulatory role for APA, allowing genes to counteract miRNA regulation on a tissue-specific basis.
Community associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) has become a major cause of skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs) in the US. We developed an age-structured compartmental model to study the spread of CA-MRSA at the population level and assess the effect of control intervention strategies. We used Monte-Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) techniques to parameterize our model using monthly time series data on SSTIs incidence in children (≤19 years) during January 2004 -December 2006 in Maricopa County, Arizona. Our model-based forecast for the period January 2007–December 2008 also provided a good fit to data. We also carried out an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on the control reproduction number, Rc which we estimated at 1.3 (95% CI [1.2,1.4]) based on the model fit to data. Using our calibrated model, we evaluated the effect of typical intervention strategies namely reducing the contact rate of infected individuals owing to awareness of infection and decolonization strategies targeting symptomatic infected individuals on both and the long-term disease dynamics. We also evaluated the impact of hypothetical decolonization strategies targeting asymptomatic colonized individuals. We found that strategies focused on infected individuals were not capable of achieving disease control when implemented alone or in combination. In contrast, our results suggest that decolonization strategies targeting the pediatric population colonized with CA-MRSA have the potential of achieving disease elimination.