ASU Scholarship Showcase

Two classes of scaling behaviours, namely the super-linear scaling of links or activities, and the sub-linear scaling of area, diversity, or time elapsed with respect to size have been found to prevail in the growth of complex networked systems. Despite some pioneering modelling approaches proposed for specific systems, whether there exists some general mechanisms that account for the origins of such scaling behaviours in different contexts, especially in socioeconomic systems, remains an open question. We address this problem by introducing a geometric network model without free parameter, finding that both super-linear and sub-linear scaling behaviours can be simultaneously reproduced and that the scaling exponents are exclusively determined by the dimension of the Euclidean space in which the network is embedded. We implement some realistic extensions to the basic model to offer more accurate predictions for cities of various scaling behaviours and the Zipf distribution reported in the literature and observed in our empirical studies. All of the empirical results can be precisely recovered by our model with analytical predictions of all major properties. By virtue of these general findings concerning scaling behaviour, our models with simple mechanisms gain new insights into the evolution and development of complex networked systems.

The termites evolved eusociality and complex societies before the ants, but have been studied much less. The recent publication of the first two termite genomes provides a unique comparative opportunity, particularly because the sequenced termites represent opposite ends of the social complexity spectrum. Zootermopsis nevadensis has simple colonies with totipotent workers that can develop into all castes (dispersing reproductives, nest-inheriting replacement reproductives, and soldiers). In contrast, the fungus-growing termite Macrotermes natalensis belongs to the higher termites and has very large and complex societies with morphologically distinct castes that are life-time sterile. Here we compare key characteristics of genomic architecture, focusing on genes involved in communication, immune defenses, mating biology and symbiosis that were likely important in termite social evolution. We discuss these in relation to what is known about these genes in the ants and outline hypothesis for further testing.

The estimation of energy demand (by power plants) has traditionally relied on historical energy use data for the region(s) that a plant produces for. Regression analysis, artificial neural network and Bayesian theory are the most common approaches for analysing these data. Such data and techniques do not generate reliable results. Consequently, excess energy has to be generated to prevent blackout; causes for energy surge are not easily determined; and potential energy use reduction from energy efficiency solutions is usually not translated into actual energy use reduction. The paper highlights the weaknesses of traditional techniques, and lays out a framework to improve the prediction of energy demand by combining energy use models of equipment, physical systems and buildings, with the proposed data mining algorithms for reverse engineering. The research team first analyses data samples from large complex energy data, and then, presents a set of computationally efficient data mining algorithms for reverse engineering. In order to develop a structural system model for reverse engineering, two focus groups are developed that has direct relation with cause and effect variables. The research findings of this paper includes testing out different sets of reverse engineering algorithms, understand their output patterns and modify algorithms to elevate accuracy of the outputs.

Small and medium office buildings consume a significant parcel of the U.S. building stock energy consumption. Still, owners lack resources and experience to conduct detailed energy audits and retrofit analysis. We present an eight-steps framework for an energy retrofit assessment in small and medium office buildings. Through a bottom-up approach and a web-based retrofit toolkit tested on a case study in Arizona, this methodology was able to save about 50% of the total energy consumed by the case study building, depending on the adopted measures and invested capital. While the case study presented is a deep energy retrofit, the proposed framework is effective in guiding the decision-making process that precedes any energy retrofit, deep or light.

Commercial buildings’ consumption is driven by multiple factors that include occupancy, system and equipment efficiency, thermal heat transfer, equipment plug loads, maintenance and operational procedures, and outdoor and indoor temperatures. A modern building energy system can be viewed as a complex dynamical system that is interconnected and influenced by external and internal factors. Modern large scale sensor measures some physical signals to monitor real-time system behaviors. Such data has the potentials to detect anomalies, identify consumption patterns, and analyze peak loads. The paper proposes a novel method to detect hidden anomalies in commercial building energy consumption system. The framework is based on Hilbert-Huang transform and instantaneous frequency analysis. The objectives are to develop an automated data pre-processing system that can detect anomalies and provide solutions with real-time consumption database using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method. The finding of this paper will also include the comparisons of Empirical mode decomposition and Ensemble empirical mode decomposition of three important type of institutional buildings.

There are many data mining and machine learning techniques to manage large sets of complex energy supply and demand data for building, organization and city. As the amount of data continues to grow, new data analysis methods are needed to address the increasing complexity. Using data from the energy loss between the supply (energy production sources) and demand (buildings and cities consumption), this paper proposes a Semi-Supervised Energy Model (SSEM) to analyse different loss factors for a building cluster. This is done by deep machine learning by training machines to semi-supervise the learning, understanding and manage the process of energy losses. Semi-Supervised Energy Model (SSEM) aims at understanding the demand-supply characteristics of a building cluster and utilizes the confident unlabelled data (loss factors) using deep machine learning techniques. The research findings involves sample data from one of the university campuses and presents the output, which provides an estimate of losses that can be reduced. The paper also provides a list of loss factors that contributes to the total losses and suggests a threshold value for each loss factor, which is determined through real time experiments. The conclusion of this paper provides a proposed energy model that can provide accurate numbers on energy demand, which in turn helps the suppliers to adopt such a model to optimize their supply strategies.

Background: Mutual policing is an important mechanism for reducing conflict in cooperative groups. In societies of ants, bees, and wasps, mutual policing of worker reproduction can evolve when workers are more closely related to the queen's sons than to the sons of workers or when the costs of worker reproduction lower the inclusive fitness of workers. During colony growth, relatedness within the colony remains the same, but the costs of worker reproduction may change. The costs of worker reproduction are predicted to be greatest in incipient colonies. If the costs associated with worker reproduction outweigh the individual direct benefits to workers, policing mechanisms as found in larger colonies may be absent in incipient colonies.

Results: We investigated policing behavior across colony growth in the ant 'Camponotus floridanus.' In large colonies of this species, worker reproduction is policed by the destruction of worker-laid eggs. We found workers from incipient colonies do not exhibit policing behavior, and instead tolerate all conspecific eggs. The change in policing behavior is consistent with changes in egg surface hydrocarbons, which provide the informational basis for policing; eggs laid by queens from incipient colonies lack the characteristic hydrocarbons on the surface of eggs laid by queens from large colonies, making them chemically indistinguishable from worker-laid eggs. We also tested the response to fertility information in the context of queen tolerance. Workers from incipient colonies attacked foreign queens from large colonies; whereas workers from large colonies tolerated such queens. Workers from both incipient and large colonies attacked foreign queens from incipient colonies.

Conclusions: Our results provide novel insights into the regulation of worker reproduction in social insects at both the proximate and ultimate levels. At the proximate level, our results show that mechanisms of social regulation, such as the response to fertility signals, change dramatically over a colony's life cycle. At the ultimate level, our results emphasize the importance of factors besides relatedness in predicting the level of conflict within a colony. Our results also suggest policing may not be an important regulatory force at every stage of colony development. Changes relating to the life cycle of the colony are sufficient to account for major differences in social regulation in an insect colony. Mechanisms of conflict mediation observed in one phase of a social group's development cannot be generalized to all stages.

Given a complex geospatial network with nodes distributed in a two-dimensional region of physical space, can the locations of the nodes be determined and their connection patterns be uncovered based solely on data? We consider the realistic situation where time series/signals can be collected from a single location. A key challenge is that the signals collected are necessarily time delayed, due to the varying physical distances from the nodes to the data collection centre. To meet this challenge, we develop a compressive-sensing-based approach enabling reconstruction of the full topology of the underlying geospatial network and more importantly, accurate estimate of the time delays. A standard triangularization algorithm can then be employed to find the physical locations of the nodes in the network. We further demonstrate successful detection of a hidden node (or a hidden source or threat), from which no signal can be obtained, through accurate detection of all its neighbouring nodes. As a geospatial network has the feature that a node tends to connect with geophysically nearby nodes, the localized region that contains the hidden node can be identified.

Recent works revealed that the energy required to control a complex network depends on the number of driving signals and the energy distribution follows an algebraic scaling law. If one implements control using a small number of drivers, e.g. as determined by the structural controllability theory, there is a high probability that the energy will diverge. We develop a physical theory to explain the scaling behaviour through identification of the fundamental structural elements, the longest control chains (LCCs), that dominate the control energy. Based on the LCCs, we articulate a strategy to drastically reduce the control energy (e.g. in a large number of real-world networks). Owing to their structural nature, the LCCs may shed light on energy issues associated with control of nonlinear dynamical networks.

A challenging problem in network science is to control complex networks. In existing frameworks of structural or exact controllability, the ability to steer a complex network toward any desired state is measured by the minimum number of required driver nodes. However, if we implement actual control by imposing input signals on the minimum set of driver nodes, an unexpected phenomenon arises: due to computational or experimental error there is a great probability that convergence to the final state cannot be achieved. In fact, the associated control cost can become unbearably large, effectively preventing actual control from being realized physically. The difficulty is particularly severe when the network is deemed controllable with a small number of drivers. Here we develop a physical controllability framework based on the probability of achieving actual control. Using a recently identified fundamental chain structure underlying the control energy, we offer strategies to turn physically uncontrollable networks into physically controllable ones by imposing slightly augmented set of input signals on properly chosen nodes. Our findings indicate that, although full control can be theoretically guaranteed by the prevailing structural controllability theory, it is necessary to balance the number of driver nodes and control cost to achieve physical control.