ASU Scholarship Showcase

Five immunocompetent C57BL/6-cBrd/cBrd/Cr (albino C57BL/6) mice were injected with GL261-luc2 cells, a cell line sharing characteristics of human glioblastoma multiforme (GBM). The mice were imaged using magnetic resonance (MR) at five separate time points to characterize growth and development of the tumor. After 25 days, the final tumor volumes of the mice varied from 12 mm³ to 62 mm³, even though mice were inoculated from the same tumor cell line under carefully controlled conditions. We generated hypotheses to explore large variances in final tumor size and tested them with our simple reaction-diffusion model in both a 3-dimensional (3D) finite difference method and a 2-dimensional (2D) level set method. The parameters obtained from a best-fit procedure, designed to yield simulated tumors as close as possible to the observed ones, vary by an order of magnitude between the three mice analyzed in detail. These differences may reflect morphological and biological variability in tumor growth, as well as errors in the mathematical model, perhaps from an oversimplification of the tumor dynamics or nonidentifiability of parameters. Our results generate parameters that match other experimental in vitro and in vivo measurements. Additionally, we calculate wave speed, which matches with other rat and human measurements.

Background:
Data assimilation refers to methods for updating the state vector (initial condition) of a complex spatiotemporal model (such as a numerical weather model) by combining new observations with one or more prior forecasts. We consider the potential feasibility of this approach for making short-term (60-day) forecasts of the growth and spread of a malignant brain cancer (glioblastoma multiforme) in individual patient cases, where the observations are synthetic magnetic resonance images of a hypothetical tumor.

Results:
We apply a modern state estimation algorithm (the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter), previously developed for numerical weather prediction, to two different mathematical models of glioblastoma, taking into account likely errors in model parameters and measurement uncertainties in magnetic resonance imaging. The filter can accurately shadow the growth of a representative synthetic tumor for 360 days (six 60-day forecast/update cycles) in the presence of a moderate degree of systematic model error and measurement noise.

Conclusions:
The mathematical methodology described here may prove useful for other modeling efforts in biology and oncology. An accurate forecast system for glioblastoma may prove useful in clinical settings for treatment planning and patient counseling.

Two classes of scaling behaviours, namely the super-linear scaling of links or activities, and the sub-linear scaling of area, diversity, or time elapsed with respect to size have been found to prevail in the growth of complex networked systems. Despite some pioneering modelling approaches proposed for specific systems, whether there exists some general mechanisms that account for the origins of such scaling behaviours in different contexts, especially in socioeconomic systems, remains an open question. We address this problem by introducing a geometric network model without free parameter, finding that both super-linear and sub-linear scaling behaviours can be simultaneously reproduced and that the scaling exponents are exclusively determined by the dimension of the Euclidean space in which the network is embedded. We implement some realistic extensions to the basic model to offer more accurate predictions for cities of various scaling behaviours and the Zipf distribution reported in the literature and observed in our empirical studies. All of the empirical results can be precisely recovered by our model with analytical predictions of all major properties. By virtue of these general findings concerning scaling behaviour, our models with simple mechanisms gain new insights into the evolution and development of complex networked systems.

The number and variety of connectivity estimation methods is likely to continue to grow over the coming decade. Comparisons between methods are necessary to prune this growth to only the most accurate and robust methods. However, the nature of connectivity is elusive with different methods potentially attempting to identify different aspects of connectivity. Commonalities of connectivity definitions across methods upon which base direct comparisons can be difficult to derive. Here, we explicitly define “effective connectivity” using a common set of observation and state equations that are appropriate for three connectivity methods: dynamic causal modeling (DCM), multivariate autoregressive modeling (MAR), and switching linear dynamic systems for fMRI (sLDSf). In addition while deriving this set, we show how many other popular functional and effective connectivity methods are actually simplifications of these equations. We discuss implications of these connections for the practice of using one method to simulate data for another method. After mathematically connecting the three effective connectivity methods, simulated fMRI data with varying numbers of regions and task conditions is generated from the common equation. This simulated data explicitly contains the type of the connectivity that the three models were intended to identify. Each method is applied to the simulated data sets and the accuracy of parameter identification is analyzed. All methods perform above chance levels at identifying correct connectivity parameters. The sLDSf method was superior in parameter estimation accuracy to both DCM and MAR for all types of comparisons.

Background: Carriers of the APOE ε4 allele are at increased risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease (AD), and have been shown to have reduced cerebral metabolic rate of glucose (CMRgl) in the same brain areas frequently affected in AD. These individuals also exhibit reduced plasma levels of apolipoprotein E (apoE) attributed to a specific decrease in the apoE4 isoform as determined by quantification of individual apoE isoforms in APOE ε4 heterozygotes. Whether low plasma apoE levels are associated with structural and functional brain measurements and cognitive performance remains to be investigated.

Methods: Using quantitative mass spectrometry we quantified the plasma levels of total apoE and the individual apoE3 and apoE4 isoforms in 128 cognitively normal APOE ε3/ε4 individuals included in the Arizona APOE cohort. All included individuals had undergone extensive neuropsychological testing and 25 had in addition undergone FDG-PET and MRI to determine CMRgl and regional gray matter volume (GMV).

Results: Our results demonstrated higher apoE4 levels in females versus males and an age-dependent increase in the apoE3 isoform levels in females only. Importantly, a higher relative ratio of apoE4 over apoE3 was associated with GMV loss in the right posterior cingulate and with reduced CMRgl bilaterally in the anterior cingulate and in the right hippocampal area. Additional exploratory analysis revealed several negative associations between total plasma apoE, individual apoE isoform levels, GMV and CMRgl predominantly in the frontal, occipital and temporal areas. Finally, our results indicated only weak associations between apoE plasma levels and cognitive performance which further appear to be affected by sex.

Conclusions: Our study proposes a sex-dependent and age-dependent variation in plasma apoE isoform levels and concludes that peripheral apoE levels are associated with GMV, CMRgl and possibly cognitive performance in cognitively healthy individuals with a genetic predisposition to AD.

Background: We introduced a hypometabolic convergence index (HCI) to characterize in a single measurement the extent to which a person’s fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomogram (FDG PET) corresponds to that in Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Apolipoprotein E ε4 (APOE ε4) gene dose is associated with three levels of risk for late-onset AD. We explored the association between gene dose and HCI in cognitively normal ε4 homozygotes, heterozygotes, and non-carriers.

Methods: An algorithm was used to characterize and compare AD-related HCIs in cognitively normal individuals, including 36 ε4 homozygotes, 46 heterozygotes, and 78 non-carriers.

Results: These three groups differed significantly in their HCIs (ANOVA, p = 0.004), and there was a significant association between HCIs and gene dose (linear trend, p = 0.001).

Conclusions: The HCI is associated with three levels of genetic risk for late-onset AD. This supports the possibility of using a single FDG PET measurement to help in the preclinical detection and tracking of AD.

Predicting the timing of a castrate resistant prostate cancer is critical to lowering medical costs and improving the quality of life of advanced prostate cancer patients. We formulate, compare and analyze two mathematical models that aim to forecast future levels of prostate-specific antigen (PSA). We accomplish these tasks by employing clinical data of locally advanced prostate cancer patients undergoing androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). While these models are simplifications of a previously published model, they fit data with similar accuracy and improve forecasting results. Both models describe the progression of androgen resistance. Although Model 1 is simpler than the more realistic Model 2, it can fit clinical data to a greater precision. However, we found that Model 2 can forecast future PSA levels more accurately. These findings suggest that including more realistic mechanisms of androgen dynamics in a two population model may help androgen resistance timing prediction.

Given a complex geospatial network with nodes distributed in a two-dimensional region of physical space, can the locations of the nodes be determined and their connection patterns be uncovered based solely on data? We consider the realistic situation where time series/signals can be collected from a single location. A key challenge is that the signals collected are necessarily time delayed, due to the varying physical distances from the nodes to the data collection centre. To meet this challenge, we develop a compressive-sensing-based approach enabling reconstruction of the full topology of the underlying geospatial network and more importantly, accurate estimate of the time delays. A standard triangularization algorithm can then be employed to find the physical locations of the nodes in the network. We further demonstrate successful detection of a hidden node (or a hidden source or threat), from which no signal can be obtained, through accurate detection of all its neighbouring nodes. As a geospatial network has the feature that a node tends to connect with geophysically nearby nodes, the localized region that contains the hidden node can be identified.

Recent works revealed that the energy required to control a complex network depends on the number of driving signals and the energy distribution follows an algebraic scaling law. If one implements control using a small number of drivers, e.g. as determined by the structural controllability theory, there is a high probability that the energy will diverge. We develop a physical theory to explain the scaling behaviour through identification of the fundamental structural elements, the longest control chains (LCCs), that dominate the control energy. Based on the LCCs, we articulate a strategy to drastically reduce the control energy (e.g. in a large number of real-world networks). Owing to their structural nature, the LCCs may shed light on energy issues associated with control of nonlinear dynamical networks.

A challenging problem in network science is to control complex networks. In existing frameworks of structural or exact controllability, the ability to steer a complex network toward any desired state is measured by the minimum number of required driver nodes. However, if we implement actual control by imposing input signals on the minimum set of driver nodes, an unexpected phenomenon arises: due to computational or experimental error there is a great probability that convergence to the final state cannot be achieved. In fact, the associated control cost can become unbearably large, effectively preventing actual control from being realized physically. The difficulty is particularly severe when the network is deemed controllable with a small number of drivers. Here we develop a physical controllability framework based on the probability of achieving actual control. Using a recently identified fundamental chain structure underlying the control energy, we offer strategies to turn physically uncontrollable networks into physically controllable ones by imposing slightly augmented set of input signals on properly chosen nodes. Our findings indicate that, although full control can be theoretically guaranteed by the prevailing structural controllability theory, it is necessary to balance the number of driver nodes and control cost to achieve physical control.