ASU Scholarship Showcase

International trade networks are manifestations of a complex combination of diverse underlying factors, both natural and social. Here we apply social network analytics to the international trade network of agricultural products to better understand the nature of this network and its relation to patterns of international development. Using a network tool known as triadic analysis we develop triad significance profiles for a series of agricultural commodities traded among countries. Results reveal a novel network “superfamily” combining properties of biological information processing networks and human social networks. To better understand this unique network signature, we examine in more detail the degree and triadic distributions within the trade network by country and commodity. Our results show that countries fall into two very distinct classes based on their triadic frequencies. Roughly 165 countries fall into one class while 18, all highly isolated with respect to international agricultural trade, fall into the other. Only Vietnam stands out as a unique case. Finally, we show that as a country becomes less isolated with respect to number of trading partners, the country's triadic signature follows a predictable trajectory that may correspond to a trajectory of development.

Under models of isolation-by-distance, population structure is determined by the probability of identity-by-descent between pairs of genes according to the geographic distance between them. Well established analytical results indicate that the relationship between geographical and genetic distance depends mostly on the neighborhood size of the population which represents a standardized measure of gene flow. To test this prediction, we model local dispersal of haploid individuals on a two-dimensional landscape using seven dispersal kernels: Rayleigh, exponential, half-normal, triangular, gamma, Lomax and Pareto. When neighborhood size is held constant, the distributions produce similar patterns of isolation-by-distance, confirming predictions. Considering this, we propose that the triangular distribution is the appropriate null distribution for isolation-by-distance studies. Under the triangular distribution, dispersal is uniform over the neighborhood area which suggests that the common description of neighborhood size as a measure of an effective, local panmictic population is valid for popular families of dispersal distributions. We further show how to draw random variables from the triangular distribution efficiently and argue that it should be utilized in other studies in which computational efficiency is important.

Background: Highly refined surveillance data on the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic are crucial to quantify the spatial and temporal characteristics of the pandemic. There is little information about the spatial-temporal dynamics of pandemic influenza in South America. Here we provide a quantitative description of the age-specific morbidity pandemic patterns across administrative areas of Peru.

Methods: We used daily cases of influenza-like-illness, tests for A/H1N1 influenza virus infections, and laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases reported to the epidemiological surveillance system of Peru's Ministry of Health from May 1 to December 31, 2009. We analyzed the geographic spread of the pandemic waves and their association with the winter school vacation period, demographic factors, and absolute humidity. We also estimated the reproduction number and quantified the association between the winter school vacation period and the age distribution of cases.

Results: The national pandemic curve revealed a bimodal winter pandemic wave, with the first peak limited to school age children in the Lima metropolitan area, and the second peak more geographically widespread. The reproduction number was estimated at 1.6–2.2 for the Lima metropolitan area and 1.3–1.5 in the rest of Peru. We found a significant association between the timing of the school vacation period and changes in the age distribution of cases, while earlier pandemic onset was correlated with large population size. By contrast there was no association between pandemic dynamics and absolute humidity.

Conclusions: Our results indicate substantial spatial variation in pandemic patterns across Peru, with two pandemic waves of varying timing and impact by age and region. Moreover, the Peru data suggest a hierarchical transmission pattern of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 driven by large population centers. The higher reproduction number of the first pandemic wave could be explained by high contact rates among school-age children, the age group most affected during this early wave.

Background: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodent-borne infectious disease, is one of the most serious public health threats in China. Increasing our understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of HFRS infections could guide local prevention and control strategies.

Methodology/Principal Findings: We employed statistical models to analyze HFRS case data together with environmental data from the Dongting Lake district during 2005–2010. Specifically, time-specific ecologic niche models (ENMs) were used to quantify and identify risk factors associated with HFRS transmission as well as forecast seasonal variation in risk across geographic areas. Results showed that the Maximum Entropy model provided the best predictive ability (AUC = 0.755). Time-specific Maximum Entropy models showed that the potential risk areas of HFRS significantly varied across seasons. High-risk areas were mainly found in the southeastern and southwestern areas of the Dongting Lake district. Our findings based on models focused on the spring and winter seasons showed particularly good performance. The potential risk areas were smaller in March, May and August compared with those identified for June, July and October to December. Both normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land use types were found to be the dominant risk factors.

Conclusions/Significance: Our findings indicate that time-specific ENMs provide a useful tool to forecast the spatial and temporal risk of HFRS.

Much of the socioeconomic life in the United States occurs in its urban areas. While an urban economy is defined to a large extent by its network of occupational specializations, an examination of this important network is absent from the considerable body of work on the determinants of urban economic performance. Here we develop a structure-based analysis addressing how the network of interdependencies among occupational specializations affects the ease with which urban economies can transform themselves. While most occupational specializations exhibit positive relationships between one another, many exhibit negative ones, and the balance between the two partially explains the productivity of an urban economy. The current set of occupational specializations of an urban economy and its location in the occupation space constrain its future development paths. Important tradeoffs exist between different alternatives for altering an occupational specialization pattern, both at a single occupation and an entire occupational portfolio levels.

In this study, we present a novel methodology to infer indel parameters from multiple sequence alignments (MSAs) based on simulations. Our algorithm searches for the set of evolutionary parameters describing indel dynamics which best fits a given input MSA. In each step of the search, we use parametric bootstraps and the Mahalanobis distance to estimate how well a proposed set of parameters fits input data. Using simulations, we demonstrate that our methodology can accurately infer the indel parameters for a large variety of plausible settings. Moreover, using our methodology, we show that indel parameters substantially vary between three genomic data sets: Mammals, bacteria, and retroviruses. Finally, we demonstrate how our methodology can be used to simulate MSAs based on indel parameters inferred from real data sets.

Mathematical models of infectious diseases are a valuable tool in understanding the mechanisms and patterns of disease transmission. It is, however, a difficult subject to teach, requiring both mathematical expertise and extensive subject-matter knowledge of a variety of disease systems. In this article, we explore several uses of zombie epidemics to make mathematical modeling and infectious disease epidemiology more accessible to public health professionals, students, and the general public. We further introduce a web-based simulation, White Zed (http://cartwrig.ht/apps/whitezed/), that can be deployed in classrooms to allow students to explore models before implementing them. In our experience, zombie epidemics are familiar, approachable, flexible, and an ideal way to introduce basic concepts of infectious disease epidemiology.

Antiviral resistance in influenza is rampant and has the possibility of causing major morbidity and mortality. Previous models have identified treatment regimes to minimize total infections and keep resistance low. However, the bulk of these studies have ignored stochasticity and heterogeneous contact structures. Here we develop a network model of influenza transmission with treatment and resistance, and present both standard mean-field approximations as well as simulated dynamics. We find differences in the final epidemic sizes for identical transmission parameters (bistability) leading to different optimal treatment timing depending on the number initially infected. We also find, contrary to previous results, that treatment targeted by number of contacts per individual (node degree) gives rise to more resistance at lower levels of treatment than non-targeted treatment. Finally we highlight important differences between the two methods of analysis (mean-field versus stochastic simulations), and show where traditional mean-field approximations fail. Our results have important implications not only for the timing and distribution of influenza chemotherapy, but also for mathematical epidemiological modeling in general. Antiviral resistance in influenza may carry large consequences for pandemic mitigation efforts, and models ignoring contact heterogeneity and stochasticity may provide misleading policy recommendations.

Mutation is the ultimate source of all genetic variation and is, therefore, central to evolutionary change. Previous work on Paramecium tetraurelia found an unusually low germline base-substitution mutation rate in this ciliate. Here, we tested the generality of this result among ciliates using Tetrahymena thermophila. We sequenced the genomes of 10 lines of T. thermophila that had each undergone approximately 1,000 generations of mutation accumulation (MA). We applied an existing mutation-calling pipeline and developed a new probabilistic mutation detection approach that directly models the design of an MA experiment and accommodates the noise introduced by mismapped reads. Our probabilistic mutation-calling method provides a straightforward way of estimating the number of sites at which a mutation could have been called if one was present, providing the denominator for our mutation rate calculations. From these methods, we find that T. thermophila has a germline base-substitution mutation rate of 7.61 × 10 ^-12 per-site, per cell division, which is consistent with the low base-substitution mutation rate in P. tetraurelia. Over the course of the evolution experiment, genomic exclusion lines derived from the MA lines experienced a fitness decline that cannot be accounted for by germline base-substitution mutations alone, suggesting that other genetic or epigenetic factors must be involved. Because selection can only operate to reduce mutation rates based upon the "visible" mutational load, asexual reproduction with a transcriptionally silent germline may allow ciliates to evolve extremely low germline mutation rates.