ASU Scholarship Showcase

In this study, we present a novel methodology to infer indel parameters from multiple sequence alignments (MSAs) based on simulations. Our algorithm searches for the set of evolutionary parameters describing indel dynamics which best fits a given input MSA. In each step of the search, we use parametric bootstraps and the Mahalanobis distance to estimate how well a proposed set of parameters fits input data. Using simulations, we demonstrate that our methodology can accurately infer the indel parameters for a large variety of plausible settings. Moreover, using our methodology, we show that indel parameters substantially vary between three genomic data sets: Mammals, bacteria, and retroviruses. Finally, we demonstrate how our methodology can be used to simulate MSAs based on indel parameters inferred from real data sets.

Mathematical models of infectious diseases are a valuable tool in understanding the mechanisms and patterns of disease transmission. It is, however, a difficult subject to teach, requiring both mathematical expertise and extensive subject-matter knowledge of a variety of disease systems. In this article, we explore several uses of zombie epidemics to make mathematical modeling and infectious disease epidemiology more accessible to public health professionals, students, and the general public. We further introduce a web-based simulation, White Zed (http://cartwrig.ht/apps/whitezed/), that can be deployed in classrooms to allow students to explore models before implementing them. In our experience, zombie epidemics are familiar, approachable, flexible, and an ideal way to introduce basic concepts of infectious disease epidemiology.

As gesture interfaces become more main-stream, it is increasingly important to investigate the behavioral characteristics of these interactions – particularly in three-dimensional (3D) space. In this study, Fitts’ method was extended to such input technologies, and the applicability of Fitts’ law to gesture-based interactions was examined. The experiment included three gesture-based input devices that utilize different techniques to capture user movement, and compared them to conventional input technologies like touchscreen and mouse. Participants completed a target-acquisition test and were instructed to move a cursor from a home location to a spherical target as quickly and accurately as possible. Three distances and three target sizes were tested six times in a randomized order for all input devices. A total of 81 participants completed all tasks. Movement time, error rate, and throughput were calculated for each input technology. Results showed that the mean movement time was highly correlated with the target's index of difficulty for all devices, providing evidence that Fitts’ law can be extended and applied to gesture-based devices. Throughputs were found to be significantly lower for the gesture-based devices compared to mouse and touchscreen, and as the index of difficulty increased, the movement time increased significantly more for these gesture technologies. Error counts were statistically higher for all gesture-based input technologies compared to mouse. In addition, error counts for all inputs were highly correlated with target width, but little impact was shown by movement distance. Overall, the findings suggest that gesture-based devices can be characterized by Fitts’ law in a similar fashion to conventional 1D or 2D devices.

Cerebral small-vessel damage manifests as white matter hyperintensities and cerebral atrophy on brain MRI and is associated with aging, cognitive decline and dementia. We sought to examine the interrelationship of these imaging biomarkers and the influence of hypertension in older individuals. We used a multivariate spatial covariance neuroimaging technique to localize the effects of white matter lesion load on regional gray matter volume and assessed the role of blood pressure control, age and education on this relationship. Using a case-control design matching for age, gender, and educational attainment we selected 64 participants with normal blood pressure, controlled hypertension or uncontrolled hypertension from the Northern Manhattan Study cohort. We applied gray matter voxel-based morphometry with the scaled subprofile model to (1) identify regional covariance patterns of gray matter volume differences associated with white matter lesion load, (2) compare this relationship across blood pressure groups, and (3) relate it to cognitive performance. In this group of participants aged 60–86 years, we identified a pattern of reduced gray matter volume associated with white matter lesion load in bilateral temporal-parietal regions with relative preservation of volume in the basal forebrain, thalami and cingulate cortex. This pattern was expressed most in the uncontrolled hypertension group and least in the normotensives, but was also more evident in older and more educated individuals. Expression of this pattern was associated with worse performance in executive function and memory. In summary, white matter lesions from small-vessel disease are associated with a regional pattern of gray matter atrophy that is mitigated by blood pressure control, exacerbated by aging, and associated with cognitive performance.

Load associated fatigue cracking is one of the major distress types occurring in flexible pavements. Flexural bending beam fatigue laboratory test has been used for several decades and is considered an integral part of the Superpave advanced characterization procedure. One of the most significant solutions to sustain the fatigue life for an asphaltic mixture is to add sustainable materials such as rubber or polymers to the asphalt mixture. A laboratory testing program was performed on three gap-graded mixtures: unmodified, Asphalt Rubber (AR) and polymer-modified. Strain controlled fatigue tests were conducted according to the AASHTO T321 procedure. The results from the beam fatigue tests indicated that the AR and polymer-modified gap graded mixtures would have much longer fatigue lives compared to the reference (unmodified) mixture. In addition, a mechanistic analysis using 3D-Move software coupled with a cost-effectiveness analysis study based on the fatigue performance on the three mixtures were performed. Overall, the analysis showed that the AR and polymer-modified asphalt mixtures exhibited significantly higher cost-effectiveness compared to unmodified HMA mixture. Although AR and polymer-modification increases the cost of the material, the analysis showed that they are more cost effective than the unmodified mixture.

The principles of a new project management model have been tested for the past 20 years. This project management model utilizes expertise instead of the traditional management, direction, and control (MDC). This new project management model is a leadership-based model instead of a management model. The practice of the new model requires a change in paradigm and project management structure. Some of the practices of this new paradigm include minimizing the flow of information and communications to and from the project manager [including meetings, emails and documents], eliminating technical communications, reducing client management, direction, and control of the vendor, and the hiring of vendors or personnel to do specific tasks. A vendors is hired only after they have clearly shown that they know what they are doing by showing past performance on similar projects, that they clearly understand how to create transparency to minimize risk that they do not control, and that they can clearly outline their project plan using a detailed milestone schedule including time, cost, and tasks all communicated in the language of metrics.

For the past three decades, the Saudi construction industry (SCI) has exhibited poor performance. Many research efforts have tried to identify the problem and the potential causes but there have been few publications identifying ways to mitigate the problem and describing testing to validate the proposed solution. This paper examines the research and development (R&D) approach in the SCI. A literature research was performed identifying the impact that R&D has had on the SCI. A questionnaire was also created for surveying industry professionals and researchers. The results show evidence that the SCI practice and the academic research work exist in separate silos. This study recommends a change of mindset in both the public and private sector on their views on R&D since cooperation is required to create collaboration between the two sectors and improve the competitiveness of the country's economy.

To date, little research has been performed regarding the planning and management of “small” projects – those projects typically differentiated from “large” projects due to having lower costs. In 2013, The Construction Industry Institute (CII) set out to develop a front end planning tool that will provide practitioners with a standardized process for planning small projects in the industrial sector. The research team determined that data should be sought from industry regarding small industrial projects to ensure applicability, effectiveness and validity of the new tool. The team developed and administered a survey to determine (1) the prevalence of small projects, (2) the planning processes currently in use for small projects, and (3) current metrics used by industry to differentiate between small and large projects. The survey data showed that small projects make up a majority of projects completed in the industrial sector, planning of these projects varies greatly across the industry, and the metrics posed in the survey were mostly not appropriate for use in differentiating between small and large projects. This study contributes to knowledge through adding to the limited research surrounding small projects, and suggesting future research regarding using measures of project complexity to differentiate between small and large projects.

Mutation is the ultimate source of all genetic variation and is, therefore, central to evolutionary change. Previous work on Paramecium tetraurelia found an unusually low germline base-substitution mutation rate in this ciliate. Here, we tested the generality of this result among ciliates using Tetrahymena thermophila. We sequenced the genomes of 10 lines of T. thermophila that had each undergone approximately 1,000 generations of mutation accumulation (MA). We applied an existing mutation-calling pipeline and developed a new probabilistic mutation detection approach that directly models the design of an MA experiment and accommodates the noise introduced by mismapped reads. Our probabilistic mutation-calling method provides a straightforward way of estimating the number of sites at which a mutation could have been called if one was present, providing the denominator for our mutation rate calculations. From these methods, we find that T. thermophila has a germline base-substitution mutation rate of 7.61 × 10 ^-12 per-site, per cell division, which is consistent with the low base-substitution mutation rate in P. tetraurelia. Over the course of the evolution experiment, genomic exclusion lines derived from the MA lines experienced a fitness decline that cannot be accounted for by germline base-substitution mutations alone, suggesting that other genetic or epigenetic factors must be involved. Because selection can only operate to reduce mutation rates based upon the "visible" mutational load, asexual reproduction with a transcriptionally silent germline may allow ciliates to evolve extremely low germline mutation rates.

Pay-for-performance (PFP) is a relatively new approach to agricultural conservation that attaches an incentive payment to quantified reductions in nutrient runoff from a participating farm. Similar to a payment for ecosystem services approach, PFP lends itself to providing incentives for the most beneficial practices at the field level. To date, PFP conservation in the U.S. has only been applied in small pilot programs. Because monitoring conservation performance for each field enrolled in a program would be cost-prohibitive, field-level modeling can provide cost-effective estimates of anticipated improvements in nutrient runoff. We developed a PFP system that uses a unique application of one of the leading agricultural models, the USDA's Soil and Water Assessment Tool, to evaluate the nutrient load reductions of potential farm practice changes based on field-level agronomic and management data. The initial phase of the project focused on simulating individual fields in the River Raisin watershed in southeastern Michigan. Here we present development of the modeling approach and results from the pilot year, 2015-2016. These results stress that (1) there is variability in practice effectiveness both within and between farms, and thus there is not one "best practice" for all farms, (2) conservation decisions are made most effectively at the scale of the farm field rather than the sub-watershed or watershed level, and (3) detailed, field-level management information is needed to accurately model and manage on-farm nutrient loadings.