ASU Scholarship Showcase

A relatively unexplored issue in cybersecurity science and engineering is whether there exist intrinsic patterns of cyberattacks. Conventional wisdom favors absence of such patterns due to the overwhelming complexity of the modern cyberspace. Surprisingly, through a detailed analysis of an extensive data set that records the time-dependent frequencies of attacks over a relatively wide range of consecutive IP addresses, we successfully uncover intrinsic spatiotemporal patterns underlying cyberattacks, where the term “spatio” refers to the IP address space. In particular, we focus on analyzing macroscopic properties of the attack traffic flows and identify two main patterns with distinct spatiotemporal characteristics: deterministic and stochastic. Strikingly, there are very few sets of major attackers committing almost all the attacks, since their attack “fingerprints” and target selection scheme can be unequivocally identified according to the very limited number of unique spatiotemporal characteristics, each of which only exists on a consecutive IP region and differs significantly from the others. We utilize a number of quantitative measures, including the flux-fluctuation law, the Markov state transition probability matrix, and predictability measures, to characterize the attack patterns in a comprehensive manner. A general finding is that the attack patterns possess high degrees of predictability, potentially paving the way to anticipating and, consequently, mitigating or even preventing large-scale cyberattacks using macroscopic approaches.

Supply-demand processes take place on a large variety of real-world networked systems ranging from power grids and the internet to social networking and urban systems. In a modern infrastructure, supply-demand systems are constantly expanding, leading to constant increase in load requirement for resources and consequently, to problems such as low efficiency, resource scarcity, and partial system failures. Under certain conditions global catastrophe on the scale of the whole system can occur through the dynamical process of cascading failures. We investigate optimization and resilience of time-varying supply-demand systems by constructing network models of such systems, where resources are transported from the supplier sites to users through various links. Here by optimization we mean minimization of the maximum load on links, and system resilience can be characterized using the cascading failure size of users who fail to connect with suppliers.

We consider two representative classes of supply schemes: load driven supply and fix fraction supply. Our findings are: (1) optimized systems are more robust since relatively smaller cascading failures occur when triggered by external perturbation to the links; (2) a large fraction of links can be free of load if resources are directed to transport through the shortest paths; (3) redundant links in the performance of the system can help to reroute the traffic but may undesirably transmit and enlarge the failure size of the system; (4) the patterns of cascading failures depend strongly upon the capacity of links; (5) the specific location of the trigger determines the specific route of cascading failure, but has little effect on the final cascading size; (6) system expansion typically reduces the efficiency; and (7) when the locations of the suppliers are optimized over a long expanding period, fewer suppliers are required. These results hold for heterogeneous networks in general, providing insights into designing optimal and resilient complex supply-demand systems that expand constantly in time.

Background: Worksites are important locations for interventions to promote health. However, occupational programs with documented efficacy often are not used, and those being implemented have not been studied. The research in this report was funded through the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act Challenge Topic 'Pathways for Translational Research,' to define and prioritize determinants that enable and hinder translation of evidenced-based health interventions in well-defined settings.

Methods: The IGNITE (investigation to guide new insights for translational effectiveness) trial is a prospective cohort study of a worksite wellness and injury reduction program from adoption to final outcomes among 12 fire departments. It will employ a mixed methods strategy to define a translational model. We will assess decision to adopt, installation, use, and outcomes (reach, individual outcomes, and economic effects) using onsite measurements, surveys, focus groups, and key informant interviews. Quantitative data will be used to define the model and conduct mediation analysis of each translational phase. Qualitative data will expand on, challenge, and confirm survey findings and allow a more thorough understanding and convergent validity by overcoming biases in qualitative and quantitative methods used alone.

Discussion: Findings will inform worksite wellness in fire departments. The resultant prioritized influences and model of effective translation can be validated and manipulated in these and other settings to more efficiently move science to service.

Periodicities (repeating patterns) are observed in many human behaviors. Their strength may capture untapped patterns that incorporate sleep, sedentary, and active behaviors into a single metric indicative of better health. We present a framework to detect periodicities from longitudinal wrist-worn accelerometry data. GENEActiv accelerometer data were collected from 20 participants (17 men, 3 women, aged 35–65) continuously for 64.4±26.2 (range: 13.9 to 102.0) consecutive days. Cardiometabolic risk biomarkers and health-related quality of life metrics were assessed at baseline. Periodograms were constructed to determine patterns emergent from the accelerometer data. Periodicity strength was calculated using circular autocorrelations for time-lagged windows. The most notable periodicity was at 24 h, indicating a circadian rest-activity cycle; however, its strength varied significantly across participants. Periodicity strength was most consistently associated with LDL-cholesterol (r’s = 0.40–0.79, P’s < 0.05) and triglycerides (r’s = 0.68–0.86, P’s < 0.05) but also associated with hs-CRP and health-related quality of life, even after adjusting for demographics and self-rated physical activity and insomnia symptoms. Our framework demonstrates a new method for characterizing behavior patterns longitudinally which captures relationships between 24 h accelerometry data and health outcomes.

Background: Falls are a major public health concern in older adults. Recent fall prevention guidelines recommend the use of multifactorial fall prevention programs (FPPs) that include exercise for community-dwelling older adults; however, the availability of sustainable, community-based FPPs is limited.

Methods: We conducted a 24-week quasi-experimental study to evaluate the efficacy of a community-based, multifactorial FPP [Stay in Balance (SIB)] on dynamic and functional balance and muscular strength. The SIB program was delivered by allied health students and included a health education program focused on fall risk factors and a progressive exercise program emphasizing lower-extremity strength and balance. All participants initially received the 12-week SIB program, and participants were non-randomly assigned at baseline to either continue the SIB exercise program at home or as a center-based program for an additional 12 weeks. Adults aged 60 and older (n = 69) who were at-risk of falling (fall history or 2+ fall risk factors) were recruited to participate. Mixed effects repeated measures using Statistical Application Software Proc Mixed were used to examine group, time, and group-by-time effects on dynamic balance (8-Foot Up and Go), functional balance (Berg Balance Scale), and muscular strength (30 s chair stands and 30 s arm curls). Non-normally distributed outcome variables were log-transformed.

Results: After adjusting for age, gender, and body mass index, 8-Foot Up and Go scores, improved significantly over time [F_(2,173) = 8.92, p = 0.0; T0 − T2 diff = 1.2 (1.0)]. Berg Balance Scores [F_(2,173) = 29.0, p < 0.0001; T0 − T2 diff = 4.96 (0.72)], chair stands [F_(2,171) = 10.17, p < 0.0001; T0 − T2 diff = 3.1 (0.7)], and arm curls [F_(2,171) = 12.7, p < 0.02; T0 − T2 diff = 2.7 (0.6)] also all improved significantly over time. There were no significant group-by-time effects observed for any of the outcomes.

Conclusion: The SIB program improved dynamic and functional balance and muscular strength in older adults at-risk for falling. Our findings indicate continuing home-based strength and balance exercises at home after completion of a center-based FPP program may be an effective and feasible way to maintain improvements in balance and strength parameters.

Mobile devices are a promising channel for delivering just-in-time guidance and support for improving key daily health behaviors. Despite an explosion of mobile phone applications aimed at physical activity and other health behaviors, few have been based on theoretically derived constructs and empirical evidence. Eighty adults ages 45 years and older who were insufficiently physically active, engaged in prolonged daily sitting, and were new to smartphone technology, participated in iterative design development and feasibility testing of three daily activity smartphone applications based on motivational frames drawn from behavioral science theory and evidence. An “analytically” framed custom application focused on personalized goal setting, self-monitoring, and active problem solving around barriers to behavior change. A “socially” framed custom application focused on social comparisons, norms, and support.

An “affectively” framed custom application focused on operant conditioning principles of reinforcement scheduling and emotional transference to an avatar, whose movements and behaviors reflected the physical activity and sedentary levels of the user. To explore the applications' initial efficacy in changing regular physical activity and leisure-time sitting, behavioral changes were assessed across eight weeks in 68 participants using the CHAMPS physical activity questionnaire and the Australian sedentary behavior questionnaire. User acceptability of and satisfaction with the applications was explored via a post-intervention user survey. The results indicated that the three applications were sufficiently robust to significantly improve regular moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity and decrease leisure-time sitting during the 8-week behavioral adoption period. Acceptability of the applications was confirmed in the post-intervention surveys for this sample of midlife and older adults new to smartphone technology. Preliminary data exploring sustained use of the applications across a longer time period yielded promising results. The results support further systematic investigation of the efficacy of the applications for changing these key health-promoting behaviors.

Background: Counselor behaviors that mediate the efficacy of motivational interviewing (MI) are not well understood, especially when applied to health behavior promotion. We hypothesized that client change talk mediates the relationship between counselor variables and subsequent client behavior change.

Methods: Purposeful sampling identified individuals from a prospective randomized worksite trial using an MI intervention to promote firefighters’ healthy diet and regular exercise that increased dietary intake of fruits and vegetables (n = 21) or did not increase intake of fruits and vegetables (n = 22). MI interactions were coded using the Motivational Interviewing Skill Code (MISC 2.1) to categorize counselor and firefighter verbal utterances. Both Bayesian and frequentist mediation analyses were used to investigate whether client change talk mediated the relationship between counselor skills and behavior change.

Results: Counselors’ global spirit, empathy, and direction and MI-consistent behavioral counts (e.g., reflections, open questions, affirmations, emphasize control) significantly correlated with firefighters’ total client change talk utterances (rs = 0.42, 0.40, 0.30, and 0.61, respectively), which correlated significantly with their fruit and vegetable intake increase (r = 0.33). Both Bayesian and frequentist mediation analyses demonstrated that findings were consistent with hypotheses, such that total client change talk mediated the relationship between counselor’s skills—MI-consistent behaviors [Bayesian mediated effect: αβ = .06 (.03), 95% CI = .02, .12] and MI spirit [Bayesian mediated effect: αβ = .06 (.03), 95% CI = .01, .13]—and increased fruit and vegetable consumption.

Conclusion: Motivational interviewing is a resource- and time-intensive intervention, and is currently being applied in many arenas. Previous research has identified the importance of counselor behaviors and client change talk in the treatment of substance use disorders. Our results indicate that similar mechanisms may underlie the effects of MI for dietary change. These results inform MI training and application by identifying those processes critical for MI success in health promotion domains.

Most previous works on complete synchronization of chaotic oscillators focused on the one-channel interaction scheme where the oscillators are coupled through only one variable or a symmetric set of variables. Using the standard framework of master-stability function (MSF), we investigate the emergence of complex synchronization behaviors under all possible configurations of two-channel coupling, which include, for example, all possible cross coupling schemes among the dynamical variables. Utilizing the classic Rössler and Lorenz oscillators, we find a rich variety of synchronization phenomena not present in any previously extensively studied, single-channel coupling configurations. For example, in many cases two coupling channels can enhance or even generate synchronization where there is only weak or no synchronization under only one coupling channel, which has been verified in a coupled neuron system. There are also cases where the oscillators are originally synchronized under one coupling channel, but an additional synchronizable coupling channel can, however, destroy synchronization. Direct numerical simulations of actual synchronization dynamics verify the MSF-based predictions. Our extensive computation and heuristic analysis provide an atlas for synchronization of chaotic oscillators coupled through two channels, which can be used as a systematic reference to facilitate further research in this area.

The objective of this study was to identify physical, social, and intrapersonal cues that were associated with the consumption of sweetened beverages and sweet and salty snacks among adolescents from lower SES neighborhoods. Students were recruited from high schools with a minimum level of 25% free or reduced cost lunches. Using ecological momentary assessment, participants (N = 158) were trained to answer brief questionnaires on handheld PDA devices: (a) each time they ate or drank, (b) when prompted randomly, and (c) once each evening. Data were collected over 7 days for each participant. Participants reported their location (e.g., school grounds, home), mood, social environment, activities (e.g., watching TV, texting), cravings, food cues (e.g., saw a snack), and food choices. Results showed that having unhealthy snacks or sweet drinks among adolescents was associated with being at school, being with friends, feeling lonely or bored, craving a drink or snack, and being exposed to food cues. Surprisingly, sweet drink consumption was associated with exercising. Watching TV was associated with consuming sweet snacks but not with salty snacks or sweet drinks. These findings identify important environmental and intrapersonal cues to poor snacking choices that may be applied to interventions designed to disrupt these food-related, cue-behavior linked habits.

Methodologists have developed mediation analysis techniques for a broad range of substantive applications, yet methods for estimating mediating mechanisms with missing data have been understudied. This study outlined a general Bayesian missing data handling approach that can accommodate mediation analyses with any number of manifest variables. Computer simulation studies showed that the Bayesian approach produced frequentist coverage rates and power estimates that were comparable to those of maximum likelihood with the bias-corrected bootstrap. We share an SAS macro that implements Bayesian estimation and use 2 data analysis examples to demonstrate its use.