ASU Scholarship Showcase

This paper studies the effect of targeted observations on state and parameter estimates determined with Kalman filter data assimilation (DA) techniques. We first provide an analytical result demonstrating that targeting observations within the Kalman filter for a linear model can significantly reduce state estimation error as opposed to fixed or randomly located observations. We next conduct observing system simulation experiments for a chaotic model of meteorological interest, where we demonstrate that the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with targeted observations based on largest ensemble variance is skillful in providing more accurate state estimates than the LETKF with randomly located observations. Additionally, we find that a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter parameter estimation method accurately updates model parameters within the targeted observation context to further improve state estimation.

The effects of urbanization on ozone levels have been widely investigated over cities primarily located in temperate and/or humid regions. In this study, nested WRF-Chem simulations with a finest grid resolution of 1 km are conducted to investigate ozone concentrations O₃ due to urbanization within cities in arid/semi-arid environments. First, a method based on a shape preserving Monotonic Cubic Interpolation (MCI) is developed and used to downscale anthropogenic emissions from the 4 km resolution 2005 National Emissions Inventory (NEI05) to the finest model resolution of 1 km. Using the rapidly expanding Phoenix metropolitan region as the area of focus, we demonstrate the proposed MCI method achieves ozone simulation results with appreciably improved correspondence to observations relative to the default interpolation method of the WRF-Chem system. Next, two additional sets of experiments are conducted, with the recommended MCI approach, to examine impacts of urbanization on ozone production: (1) the urban land cover is included (i.e., urbanization experiments) and, (2) the urban land cover is replaced with the region's native shrubland. Impacts due to the presence of the built environment on O₃ are highly heterogeneous across the metropolitan area. Increased near surface O₃ due to urbanization of 10–20 ppb is predominantly a nighttime phenomenon while simulated impacts during daytime are negligible. Urbanization narrows the daily O₃ range (by virtue of increasing nighttime minima), an impact largely due to the region's urban heat island. Our results demonstrate the importance of the MCI method for accurate representation of the diurnal profile of ozone, and highlight its utility for high-resolution air quality simulations for urban areas.

It is known that in classical fluids turbulence typically occurs at high Reynolds numbers. But can turbulence occur at low Reynolds numbers? Here we investigate the transition to turbulence in the classic Taylor-Couette system in which the rotating fluids are manufactured ferrofluids with magnetized nanoparticles embedded in liquid carriers. We find that, in the presence of a magnetic field transverse to the symmetry axis of the system, turbulence can occur at Reynolds numbers that are at least one order of magnitude smaller than those in conventional fluids. This is established by extensive computational ferrohydrodynamics through a detailed investigation of transitions in the flow structure, and characterization of behaviors of physical quantities such as the energy, the wave number, and the angular momentum through the bifurcations. A finding is that, as the magnetic field is increased, onset of turbulence can be determined accurately and reliably. Our results imply that experimental investigation of turbulence may be feasible by using ferrofluids. Our study of transition to and evolution of turbulence in the Taylor-Couette ferrofluidic flow system provides insights into the challenging problem of turbulence control.

A relatively unexplored issue in cybersecurity science and engineering is whether there exist intrinsic patterns of cyberattacks. Conventional wisdom favors absence of such patterns due to the overwhelming complexity of the modern cyberspace. Surprisingly, through a detailed analysis of an extensive data set that records the time-dependent frequencies of attacks over a relatively wide range of consecutive IP addresses, we successfully uncover intrinsic spatiotemporal patterns underlying cyberattacks, where the term “spatio” refers to the IP address space. In particular, we focus on analyzing macroscopic properties of the attack traffic flows and identify two main patterns with distinct spatiotemporal characteristics: deterministic and stochastic. Strikingly, there are very few sets of major attackers committing almost all the attacks, since their attack “fingerprints” and target selection scheme can be unequivocally identified according to the very limited number of unique spatiotemporal characteristics, each of which only exists on a consecutive IP region and differs significantly from the others. We utilize a number of quantitative measures, including the flux-fluctuation law, the Markov state transition probability matrix, and predictability measures, to characterize the attack patterns in a comprehensive manner. A general finding is that the attack patterns possess high degrees of predictability, potentially paving the way to anticipating and, consequently, mitigating or even preventing large-scale cyberattacks using macroscopic approaches.

Supply-demand processes take place on a large variety of real-world networked systems ranging from power grids and the internet to social networking and urban systems. In a modern infrastructure, supply-demand systems are constantly expanding, leading to constant increase in load requirement for resources and consequently, to problems such as low efficiency, resource scarcity, and partial system failures. Under certain conditions global catastrophe on the scale of the whole system can occur through the dynamical process of cascading failures. We investigate optimization and resilience of time-varying supply-demand systems by constructing network models of such systems, where resources are transported from the supplier sites to users through various links. Here by optimization we mean minimization of the maximum load on links, and system resilience can be characterized using the cascading failure size of users who fail to connect with suppliers.

We consider two representative classes of supply schemes: load driven supply and fix fraction supply. Our findings are: (1) optimized systems are more robust since relatively smaller cascading failures occur when triggered by external perturbation to the links; (2) a large fraction of links can be free of load if resources are directed to transport through the shortest paths; (3) redundant links in the performance of the system can help to reroute the traffic but may undesirably transmit and enlarge the failure size of the system; (4) the patterns of cascading failures depend strongly upon the capacity of links; (5) the specific location of the trigger determines the specific route of cascading failure, but has little effect on the final cascading size; (6) system expansion typically reduces the efficiency; and (7) when the locations of the suppliers are optimized over a long expanding period, fewer suppliers are required. These results hold for heterogeneous networks in general, providing insights into designing optimal and resilient complex supply-demand systems that expand constantly in time.

We present a new approach to computing event shape distributions or, more precisely, charge flow correlations in a generic conformal field theory (CFT). These infrared finite observables are familiar from collider physics studies and describe the angular distribution of global charges in outgoing radiation created from the vacuum by some source. The charge flow correlations can be expressed in terms of Wightman correlation functions in a certain limit. We explain how to compute these quantities starting from their Euclidean analogues by means of a nontrivial analytic continuation which, in the framework of CFT, can be performed elegantly in Mellin space. The relation between the charge flow correlations and Euclidean correlation functions can be reformulated directly in configuration space, bypassing the Mellin representation, as a certain Lorentzian double discontinuity of the correlation function integrated along the cuts. We illustrate the general formalism in N = 4 SYM, making use of the well-known results on the four-point correlation function of half-BPS scalar operators. We compute the double scalar flow correlation in N = 4 SYM, at weak and strong coupling and show that it agrees with known results obtained by different techniques. One of the remarkable features of the N = 4 theory is that the scalar and energy flow correlations are proportional to each other. Imposing natural physical conditions on the energy flow correlations (finiteness, positivity and regularity), we formulate additional constraints on the four-point correlation functions in N = 4SYM that should be valid at any coupling and away from the planar limit.

The Operator Product Expansion for null polygonal Wilson loop in planar maximally supersymmetric Yang–Mills theory runs systematically in terms of multi-particle pentagon transitions which encode the physics of excitations propagating on the color flux tube ending on the sides of the four-dimensional contour. Their dynamics was unraveled in the past several years and culminated in a complete description of pentagons as an exact function of the 't Hooft coupling. In this paper we provide a solution for the last building block in this program, the SU(4) matrix structure arising from internal symmetry indices of scalars and fermions. This is achieved by a recursive solution of the Mirror and Watson equations obeyed by the so-called singlet pentagons and fixing the form of the twisted component in their tensor decomposition. The non-singlet, or charged, pentagons are deduced from these by a limiting procedure.

We address the near-collinear expansion of NMHV six-particle scattering amplitudes at strong value of the 't Hooft coupling in planar maximally supersymmetric Yang–Mills theory. We complement recent studies of this observable within the context of the Pentagon Operator Product Expansion, via the dual superWilson loop description, by studying effects of multiple scalar exchanges that accompany (or not) massive flux-tube excitations. Due to the fact that holes have a very small, nonperturbatively generated mass m_h which is exponentially suppressed in the 't Hooft coupling, their exchanges must be resummed in the ultraviolet limit, T <<1/m_h. This procedure yields a contribution to the expectation value of the superloop which enters on equal footing with the classical area — a phenomenon which was earlier observed for MHV amplitudes. In all components, the near-massless scalar exchanges factorize from the ones of massive particles, at leading order in strong coupling.

Scattering amplitudes in maximally supersymmetric gauge theory receive a dual description in terms of the expectation value of the super Wilson loop stretched on a null polygonal contour. This makes the analysis amenable to nonperturbative techniques. Presently, we elaborate on a refined form of the operator product expansion in terms of pentagon transitions to compute twist-two contributions to NMHV amplitudes. To start with, we provide a novel derivation of scattering matrices starting from Baxter equations for flux-tube excitations propagating on magnon background. We propose bootstrap equations obeyed by pentagon form factors with nonsinglet quantum numbers with respect to the R-symmetry group and provide solutions to them to all orders in 't Hooft coupling. These are then successfully confronted against available perturbative calculations for NMHV amplitudes to four-loop order.

An interesting occurrence of a Rossby wave breaking event observed during the VORCORE experiment is presented and explained. Twenty-seven balloons were launched inside the Antarctic polar vortex. Almost all of these balloons evolved in the stratosphere around 500K within the vortex, except the one launched on 28 October 2005. In this case, the balloon was caught within a tongue of high potential vorticity (PV), and was ejected from the polar vortex. The evolution of this event is studied for the period between 19 and 25 November 2005. It is found that at the beginning of this period, the polar vortex experienced distortions due to the presence of Rossby waves. Then, these waves break and a tongue of high PV develops. On 25 November, the tongue became separated from the vortex and the balloon was ejected into the surf zone. Lagrangian simulations demonstrate that the air masses surrounding the balloon after its ejection were originating from the vortex edge. The wave breaking and the development of the tongue are confined within a region where a planetary Quasi-Stationary Wave 1 (QSW1) induces wind speeds with weaker values. The QSW1 causes asymmetry in the wind speed and the horizontal PV gradient along the edge of the polar vortex, resulting in a localized jet. Rossby waves with smaller scales propagating on top of this jet amplify as they enter the jet exit region and then break. The role of the QSW1 on the formation of the weak flow conditions that caused the non-linear wave breaking observed near the vortex edge is confirmed by three-dimensional numerical simulations using forcing with and without the contribution of the QSW1.