ASU Scholarship Showcase

Predicting the timing of a castrate resistant prostate cancer is critical to lowering medical costs and improving the quality of life of advanced prostate cancer patients. We formulate, compare and analyze two mathematical models that aim to forecast future levels of prostate-specific antigen (PSA). We accomplish these tasks by employing clinical data of locally advanced prostate cancer patients undergoing androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). While these models are simplifications of a previously published model, they fit data with similar accuracy and improve forecasting results. Both models describe the progression of androgen resistance. Although Model 1 is simpler than the more realistic Model 2, it can fit clinical data to a greater precision. However, we found that Model 2 can forecast future PSA levels more accurately. These findings suggest that including more realistic mechanisms of androgen dynamics in a two population model may help androgen resistance timing prediction.

The ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas poses a major global public health emergency. While ZIKV is transmitted from human to human by bites of Aedes mosquitoes, recent evidence indicates that ZIKV can also be transmitted via sexual contact with cases of sexually transmitted ZIKV reported in Argentina, Canada, Chile, France, Italy, New Zealand, Peru, Portugal, and the USA. Yet, the role of sexual transmission on the spread and control of ZIKV infection is not well-understood. We introduce a mathematical model to investigate the impact of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission on the spread and control of ZIKV and calibrate the model to ZIKV epidemic data from Brazil, Colombia, and El Salvador. Parameter estimates yielded a basic reproduction number R_0 = 2.055 (95% CI: 0.523–6.300), in which the percentage contribution of sexual transmission is 3.044% (95% CI: 0.123–45.73). Our sensitivity analyses indicate that R_0 is most sensitive to the biting rate and mortality rate of mosquitoes while sexual transmission increases the risk of infection and epidemic size and prolongs the outbreak. Prevention and control efforts against ZIKV should target both the mosquito-borne and sexual transmission routes.

We describe the deposition of four datasets consisting of X-ray diffraction images acquired using serial femtosecond crystallography experiments on microcrystals of human G protein-coupled receptors, grown and delivered in lipidic cubic phase, at the Linac Coherent Light Source. The receptors are: the human serotonin receptor 2B in complex with an agonist ergotamine, the human δ-opioid receptor in complex with a bi-functional peptide ligand DIPP-NH₂, the human smoothened receptor in complex with an antagonist cyclopamine, and finally the human angiotensin II type 1 receptor in complex with the selective antagonist ZD7155. All four datasets have been deposited, with minimal processing, in an HDF5-based file format, which can be used directly for crystallographic processing with CrystFEL or other software. We have provided processing scripts and supporting files for recent versions of CrystFEL, which can be used to validate the data.

Structural studies on living cells by conventional methods are limited to low resolution because radiation damage kills cells long before the necessary dose for high resolution can be delivered. X-ray free-electron lasers circumvent this problem by outrunning key damage processes with an ultra-short and extremely bright coherent X-ray pulse. Diffraction-before-destruction experiments provide high-resolution data from cells that are alive when the femtosecond X-ray pulse traverses the sample. This paper presents two data sets from micron-sized cyanobacteria obtained at the Linac Coherent Light Source, containing a total of 199,000 diffraction patterns. Utilizing this type of diffraction data will require the development of new analysis methods and algorithms for studying structure and structural variability in large populations of cells and to create abstract models. Such studies will allow us to understand living cells and populations of cells in new ways. New X-ray lasers, like the European XFEL, will produce billions of pulses per day, and could open new areas in structural sciences.

Land-use mapping is critical for global change research. In Central Arizona, U.S.A., the spatial distribution of land use is important for sustainable land management decisions. The objective of this study was to create a land-use map that serves as a model for the city of Maricopa, an expanding urban region in the Sun Corridor of Arizona. We use object-based image analysis to map six land-use types from ASTER imagery, and then compare this with two per-pixel classifications. Our results show that a single segmentation, combined with intermediary classifications and merging, morphing, and growing image-objects, can lead to an accurate land-use map that is capable of utilizing both spatial and spectral information. We also employ a moving-window diversity assessment to help with analysis and improve post-classification modifications.

Gompertz’s empirical equation remains the most popular one in describing cancer cell population growth in a wide spectrum of bio-medical situations due to its good fit to data and simplicity. Many efforts were documented in the literature aimed at understanding the mechanisms that may support Gompertz’s elegant model equation. One of the most convincing efforts was carried out by Gyllenberg and Webb. They divide the cancer cell population into the proliferative cells and the quiescent cells. In their two dimensional model, the dead cells are assumed to be removed from the tumor instantly. In this paper, we modify their model by keeping track of the dead cells remaining in the tumor. We perform mathematical and computational studies on this three dimensional model and compare the model dynamics to that of the model of Gyllenberg and Webb. Our mathematical findings suggest that if an avascular tumor grows according to our three-compartment model, then as the death rate of quiescent cells decreases to zero, the percentage of proliferative cells also approaches to zero. Moreover, a slow dying quiescent population will increase the size of the tumor. On the other hand, while the tumor size does not depend on the dead cell removal rate, its early and intermediate growth stages are very sensitive to it.

Background: Androgens bind to the androgen receptor (AR) in prostate cells and are essential survival factors for healthy prostate epithelium. Most untreated prostate cancers retain some dependence upon the AR and respond, at least transiently, to androgen ablation therapy. However, the relationship between endogenous androgen levels and cancer etiology is unclear. High levels of androgens have traditionally been viewed as driving abnormal proliferation leading to cancer, but it has also been suggested that low levels of androgen could induce selective pressure for abnormal cells. We formulate a mathematical model of androgen regulated prostate growth to study the effects of abnormal androgen levels on selection for pre-malignant phenotypes in early prostate cancer development.

Results: We find that cell turnover rate increases with decreasing androgen levels, which may increase the rate of mutation and malignant evolution. We model the evolution of a heterogeneous prostate cell population using a continuous state-transition model. Using this model we study selection for AR expression under different androgen levels and find that low androgen environments, caused either by low serum testosterone or by reduced 5α-reductase activity, select more strongly for elevated AR expression than do normal environments. High androgen actually slightly reduces selective pressure for AR upregulation. Moreover, our results suggest that an aberrant androgen environment may delay progression to a malignant phenotype, but result in a more dangerous cancer should one arise.

Conclusions: The model represents a useful initial framework for understanding the role of androgens in prostate cancer etiology, and it suggests that low androgen levels can increase selection for phenotypes resistant to hormonal therapy that may also be more aggressive. Moreover, clinical treatment with 5α-reductase inhibitors such as finasteride may increase the incidence of therapy resistant cancers.

Urban environmental measurements and observational statistics should reflect the properties generated over an adjacent area of adequate length where homogeneity is usually assumed. The determination of this characteristic source area that gives sufficient representation of the horizontal coverage of a sensing instrument or the fetch of transported quantities is of critical importance to guide the design and implementation of urban landscape planning strategies. In this study, we aim to unify two different methods for estimating source areas, viz. the statistical correlation method commonly used by geographers for landscape fragmentation and the mechanistic footprint model by meteorologists for atmospheric measurements. Good agreement was found in the intercomparison of the estimate of source areas by the two methods, based on 2-m air temperature measurement collected using a network of weather stations. The results can be extended to shed new lights on urban planning strategies, such as the use of urban vegetation for heat mitigation. In general, a sizable patch of landscape is required in order to play an effective role in regulating the local environment, proportional to the height at which stakeholders’ interest is mainly concerned.

The exploration of environmentally friendly energy resources is one of the major challenges facing society today. The last decade has witnessed rapid developments in renewable energy engineering. Wind and solar power plants with increasing sizes and technological sophistication have been built. Amid this development, meteorological modeling plays an increasingly important role, not only in selecting the sites of wind and solar power plants but also in assessing the environmental impacts of those plants. The permanent land-use changes as a result of the construction of wind farms can potentially alter local climate (Keith et al. [1], Roy and Traiteur [2]). The reduction of wind speed by the presence of wind turbines could affect the preconstruction estimate of wind power potential (e.g., Adams and Keith [3]). Future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are expected to induce changes in the surface wind and cloudiness, which would affect the power production of wind and solar power plants. To quantify these two-way relations between renewable energy production and regional climate change, mesoscale meteorological modeling remains one of the most efficient approaches for research and applications.

This study explores the capabilities of the Coherent X-ray Imaging Instrument at the Linac Coherent Light Source to image small biological samples. The weak signal from small samples puts a significant demand on the experiment. Aerosolized Omono River virus particles of ∼40 nm in diameter were injected into the submicrometre X-ray focus at a reduced pressure. Diffraction patterns were recorded on two area detectors. The statistical nature of the measurements from many individual particles provided information about the intensity profile of the X-ray beam, phase variations in the wavefront and the size distribution of the injected particles. The results point to a wider than expected size distribution (from ∼35 to ∼300 nm in diameter). This is likely to be owing to nonvolatile contaminants from larger droplets during aerosolization and droplet evaporation. The results suggest that the concentration of nonvolatile contaminants and the ratio between the volumes of the initial droplet and the sample particles is critical in such studies. The maximum beam intensity in the focus was found to be 1.9 × 10¹² photons per µm² per pulse. The full-width of the focus at half-maximum was estimated to be 500 nm (assuming 20% beamline transmission), and this width is larger than expected. Under these conditions, the diffraction signal from a sample-sized particle remained above the average background to a resolution of 4.25 nm. The results suggest that reducing the size of the initial droplets during aerosolization is necessary to bring small particles into the scope of detailed structural studies with X-ray lasers.