ASU Scholarship Showcase

Dental microwear has been shown to reflect diet in a broad variety of fossil mammals. Recent studies have suggested that differences in microwear texture attributes between samples may also reflect environmental abrasive loads. Here, we examine dental microwear textures on the incisors of shrews, both to evaluate this idea and to expand the extant baseline to include Soricidae. Specimens were chosen to sample a broad range of environments, semi-desert to rainforest. Species examined were all largely insectivorous, but some are reported to supplement their diets with vertebrate tissues and others with plant matter. Results indicate subtle but significant differences between samples grouped by both diet independent of environment and environment independent of diet. Subtle diet differences were more evident in microwear texture variation considered by habitat (i.e., grassland). These results suggest that while environment does not swamp the diet signal in shrew incisor microwear, studies can benefit from control of habitat type.

There are many proteomic applications that require large collections of purified protein, but parallel production of large numbers of different proteins remains a very challenging task. To help meet the needs of the scientific community, we have developed a human protein production pipeline. Using high-throughput (HT) methods, we transferred the genes of 31 full-length proteins into three expression vectors, and expressed the collection as N-terminal HaloTag fusion proteins in Escherichia coli and two commercial cell-free (CF) systems, wheat germ extract (WGE) and HeLa cell extract (HCE). Expression was assessed by labeling the fusion proteins specifically and covalently with a fluorescent HaloTag ligand and detecting its fluorescence on a LabChip[superscript ®] GX microfluidic capillary gel electrophoresis instrument. This automated, HT assay provided both qualitative and quantitative assessment of recombinant protein. E. coli was only capable of expressing 20% of the test collection in the supernatant fraction with ≥20 μg yields, whereas CF systems had ≥83% success rates. We purified expressed proteins using an automated HaloTag purification method. We purified 20, 33, and 42% of the test collection from E. coli, WGE, and HCE, respectively, with yields ≥1 μg and ≥90% purity. Based on these observations, we have developed a triage strategy for producing full-length human proteins in these three expression systems.

Collective behaviors in social insect societies often emerge from simple local rules. However, little is known about how these behaviors are dynamically regulated in response to environmental changes. Here, we use a compartmental modeling approach to identify factors that allow harvester ant colonies to regulate collective foraging activity in response to their environment. We propose a set of differential equations describing the dynamics of: (1) available foragers inside the nest, (2) active foragers outside the nest, and (3) successful returning foragers, to understand how colony-specific parameters, such as baseline number of foragers, interactions among foragers, food discovery rates, successful forager return rates, and foraging duration might influence collective foraging dynamics, while maintaining functional robustness to perturbations. Our analysis indicates that the model can undergo a forward (transcritical) bifurcation or a backward bifurcation depending on colony-specific parameters. In the former case, foraging activity persists when the average number of recruits per successful returning forager is larger than one. In the latter case, the backward bifurcation creates a region of bistability in which the size and fate of foraging activity depends on the distribution of the foraging workforce among the model׳s compartments. We validate the model with experimental data from harvester ants (Pogonomyrmex barbatus) and perform sensitivity analysis. Our model provides insights on how simple, local interactions can achieve an emergent and robust regulatory system of collective foraging activity in ant colonies.

We report a device to fill an array of small chemical reaction chambers (microreactors) with reagent and then seal them using pressurized viscous liquid acting through a flexible membrane. The device enables multiple, independent chemical reactions involving free floating intermediate molecules without interference from neighboring reactions or external environments. The device is validated by protein expressed in situ directly from DNA in a microarray of ~10,000 spots with no diffusion during three hours incubation. Using the device to probe for an autoantibody cancer biomarker in blood serum sample gave five times higher signal to background ratio compared to standard protein microarray expressed on a flat microscope slide. Physical design principles to effectively fill the array of microreactors with reagent and experimental results of alternate methods for sealing the microreactors are presented.

Sera from patients with ovarian cancer contain autoantibodies (AAb) to tumor-derived proteins that are potential biomarkers for early detection. To detect AAb, we probed high-density programmable protein microarrays (NAPPA) expressing 5177 candidate tumor antigens with sera from patients with serous ovarian cancer (n = 34 cases/30 controls) and measured bound IgG. Of these, 741 antigens were selected and probed with an independent set of ovarian cancer sera (n = 60 cases/60 controls). Twelve potential autoantigens were identified with sensitivities ranging from 13 to 22% at >93% specificity. These were retested using a Luminex bead array using 60 cases and 60 controls, with sensitivities ranging from 0 to 31.7% at 95% specificity. Three AAb (p53, PTPRA, and PTGFR) had area under the curve (AUC) levels >60% (p < 0.01), with the partial AUC (SPAUC) over 5 times greater than for a nondiscriminating test (p < 0.01). Using a panel of the top three AAb (p53, PTPRA, and PTGFR), if at least two AAb were positive, then the sensitivity was 23.3% at 98.3% specificity. AAb to at least one of these top three antigens were also detected in 7/20 sera (35%) of patients with low CA 125 levels and 0/15 controls. AAb to p53, PTPRA, and PTGFR are potential biomarkers for the early detection of ovarian cancer.

Background: Influenza viruses are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Vaccination remains a powerful tool for preventing or mitigating influenza outbreaks. Yet, vaccine supplies and daily administration capacities are limited, even in developed countries. Understanding how such constraints can alter the mitigating effects of vaccination is a crucial part of influenza preparedness plans. Mathematical models provide tools for government and medical officials to assess the impact of different vaccination strategies and plan accordingly. However, many existing models of vaccination employ several questionable assumptions, including a rate of vaccination proportional to the population at each point in time.

Methods: We present a SIR-like model that explicitly takes into account vaccine supply and the number of vaccines administered per day and places data-informed limits on these parameters. We refer to this as the non-proportional model of vaccination and compare it to the proportional scheme typically found in the literature.

Results: The proportional and non-proportional models behave similarly for a few different vaccination scenarios. However, there are parameter regimes involving the vaccination campaign duration and daily supply limit for which the non-proportional model predicts smaller epidemics that peak later, but may last longer, than those of the proportional model. We also use the non-proportional model to predict the mitigating effects of variably timed vaccination campaigns for different levels of vaccination coverage, using specific constraints on daily administration capacity.

Conclusions: The non-proportional model of vaccination is a theoretical improvement that provides more accurate predictions of the mitigating effects of vaccination on influenza outbreaks than the proportional model. In addition, parameters such as vaccine supply and daily administration limit can be easily adjusted to simulate conditions in developed and developing nations with a wide variety of financial and medical resources. Finally, the model can be used by government and medical officials to create customized pandemic preparedness plans based on the supply and administration constraints of specific communities.

Background: On 31 March 2013, the first human infections with the novel influenza A/H7N9 virus were reported in Eastern China. The outbreak expanded rapidly in geographic scope and size, with a total of 132 laboratory-confirmed cases reported by 3 June 2013, in 10 Chinese provinces and Taiwan. The incidence of A/H7N9 cases has stalled in recent weeks, presumably as a consequence of live bird market closures in the most heavily affected areas. Here we compare the transmission potential of influenza A/H7N9 with that of other emerging pathogens and evaluate the impact of intervention measures in an effort to guide pandemic preparedness.

Methods: We used a Bayesian approach combined with a SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed) transmission model fitted to daily case data to assess the reproduction number (R) of A/H7N9 by province and to evaluate the impact of live bird market closures in April and May 2013. Simulation studies helped quantify the performance of our approach in the context of an emerging pathogen, where human-to-human transmission is limited and most cases arise from spillover events. We also used alternative approaches to estimate R based on individual-level information on prior exposure and compared the transmission potential of influenza A/H7N9 with that of other recent zoonoses.

Results: Estimates of R for the A/H7N9 outbreak were below the epidemic threshold required for sustained human-to-human transmission and remained near 0.1 throughout the study period, with broad 95% credible intervals by the Bayesian method (0.01 to 0.49). The Bayesian estimation approach was dominated by the prior distribution, however, due to relatively little information contained in the case data. We observe a statistically significant deceleration in growth rate after 6 April 2013, which is consistent with a reduction in A/H7N9 transmission associated with the preemptive closure of live bird markets. Although confidence intervals are broad, the estimated transmission potential of A/H7N9 appears lower than that of recent zoonotic threats, including avian influenza A/H5N1, swine influenza H3N2sw and Nipah virus.

Conclusion: Although uncertainty remains high in R estimates for H7N9 due to limited epidemiological information, all available evidence points to a low transmission potential. Continued monitoring of the transmission potential of A/H7N9 is critical in the coming months as intervention measures may be relaxed and seasonal factors could promote disease transmission in colder months.

Background: The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden.

Methods: We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization.

Results: Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south–north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918–19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave.

Conclusions: A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918-19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality.

Introduction: Juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) is a heterogeneous disease characterized by chronic joint inflammation of unknown cause in children. JIA is an autoimmune disease and small numbers of autoantibodies have been reported in JIA patients. The identification of antibody markers could improve the existing clinical management of patients.

Methods: A pilot study was performed on the application of a high-throughput platform, the nucleic acid programmable protein array (NAPPA), to assess the levels of antibodies present in the systemic circulation and synovial joint of a small cohort of juvenile arthritis patients. Plasma and synovial fluid from 10 JIA patients was screened for antibodies against 768 proteins on NAPPAs.

Results: Quantitative reproducibility of NAPPAs was demonstrated with > 0.95 intra-array and inter-array correlations. A strong correlation was also observed for the levels of antibodies between plasma and synovial fluid across the study cohort (r = 0.96). Differences in the levels of 18 antibodies were revealed between sample types across all patients. Patients were segregated into two clinical subtypes with distinct antibody signatures by unsupervised hierarchical cluster analysis.

Conclusion: The NAPPAs provide a high-throughput quantitatively reproducible platform to screen for disease-specific autoantibodies at the proteome level on a microscope slide. The strong correlation between the circulating antibody levels and those of the inflamed joint represents a novel finding and provides confidence to use plasma for discovery of autoantibodies in JIA, thus circumventing the challenges associated with joint aspiration. We expect that autoantibody profiling of JIA patients on NAPPAs could yield antibody markers that can act as criteria to stratify patients, predict outcomes and understand disease etiology at the molecular level.

Background: Ebola is one of the most virulent human viral diseases, with a case fatality ratio between 25% to 90%. The 2014 West African outbreaks are the largest and worst in history. There is no specific treatment or effective/safe vaccine against the disease. Hence, control efforts are restricted to basic public health preventive (non-pharmaceutical) measures. Such efforts are undermined by traditional/cultural belief systems and customs, characterized by general mistrust and skepticism against government efforts to combat the disease. This study assesses the roles of traditional customs and public healthcare systems on the disease spread.

Methods: A mathematical model is designed and used to assess population-level impact of basic non-pharmaceutical control measures on the 2014 Ebola outbreaks. The model incorporates the effects of traditional belief systems and customs, along with disease transmission within health-care settings and by Ebola-deceased individuals. A sensitivity analysis is performed to determine model parameters that most affect disease transmission. The model is parameterized using data from Guinea, one of the three Ebola-stricken countries. Numerical simulations are performed and the parameters that drive disease transmission, with or without basic public health control measures, determined. Three effectiveness levels of such basic measures are considered.

Results: The distribution of the basic reproduction number (R_0) for Guinea (in the absence of basic control measures) is such that R_ 0 ∈ [0.77,1.35], for the case when the belief systems do not result in more unreported Ebola cases. When such systems inhibit control efforts, the distribution increases to R_ 0 ∈ [1.15,2.05]. The total Ebola cases are contributed by Ebola-deceased individuals (22%), symptomatic individuals in the early (33%) and latter (45%) infection stages. A significant reduction of new Ebola cases can be achieved by increasing health-care workers’ daily shifts from 8 to 24 hours, limiting hospital visitation to 1 hour and educating the populace to abandon detrimental traditional/cultural belief systems.

Conclusions: The 2014 outbreaks are controllable using a moderately-effective basic public health intervention strategy alone. A much higher (>50%) disease burden would have been recorded in the absence of such intervention.