ASU Scholarship Showcase

In this synthesis, we hope to accomplish two things: 1) reflect on how the analysis of the new archaeological cases presented in this special feature adds to previous case studies by revisiting a set of propositions reported in a 2006 special feature, and 2) reflect on four main ideas that are more specific to the archaeological cases: i) societal choices are influenced by robustness–vulnerability trade-offs, ii) there is interplay between robustness–vulnerability trade-offs and robustness–performance trade-offs, iii) societies often get locked in to particular strategies, and iv) multiple positive feedbacks escalate the perceived cost of societal change. We then discuss whether these lock-in traps can be prevented or whether the risks associated with them can be mitigated. We conclude by highlighting how these long-term historical studies can help us to understand current society, societal practices, and the nexus between ecology and society.

Does school participatory budgeting (SPB) increase students’ political efficacy? SPB, which is implemented in thousands of schools around the world, is a democratic process of deliberation and decision-making in which students determine how to spend a portion of the school’s budget. We examined the impact of SPB on political efficacy in one middle school in Arizona. Our participants’ (n = 28) responses on survey items designed to measure self-perceived growth in political efficacy indicated a large effect size (Cohen’s d = 1.46), suggesting that SPB is an effective approach to civic pedagogy, with promising prospects for developing students’ political efficacy.

In order to improve the efficiency of government spending, it is necessary for the decentralized irrigation management to gain support from local institutions. Efficient institutions take on several distinct configurations in different irrigation districts. In this research, we upgrade Tang’s (1992) framework focusing on incentives, to a framework that includes institutional incentives and coordination. Within the framework, we then classify 5 institutional variables: water pricing reform (P), government funding (F), coordination by administration (C), having formal monitors (M) and self-organized management (S). This article processes the data obtained through a field survey (2009–2011) in 20 of China’s southern counties, where they implement the “Small-scale Irrigation and Water Conservancy Key Counties Construction (Key Counties Construction)”, a national project supported by the central government. Next, it applies Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to measure the efficiency of government spending and uses Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to extract efficient institutional configurations. It concludes that there are generally three types of institutional configurations able to improve the efficiency of government spending, which are respectively: “government funding combined with coordination by administration”, “water pricing reform combined with self-organized management and coordination by administration or water pricing reform combined with self-organized management and government funding and formal monitors” and “self-organized management”. Among these, the second configuration is a mixed governance structure with multiple institutions coexisting, and this configuration occurs in the most efficient key counties. For that reason, it is viewed as the mainstream irrigation management approach, and we expect it to be the development trend in the future. Although Chinese irrigation policies are formalizing effective local institutions, they are still not sufficient. Future policies are needed to 1) promote institutions of government support for water laws in order to build stable expectations for both water user associations (WUAs) and farmers, 2) guide water pricing reform by ensuring farmers’ water rights and regulating water markets, and 3) provide opportunities for hiring professional monitors and crafting formal rules.

Land surface energy balance in a built environment is widely modelled using urban canopy models with representation of building arrays as big street canyons. Modification of this simplified geometric representation, however, leads to challenging numerical difficulties in improving physical parameterization schemes that are deterministic in nature. In this paper, we develop a stochastic algorithm to estimate view factors between canyon facets in the presence of shade trees based on Monte Carlo simulation, where an analytical formulation is inhibited by the complex geometry. The model is validated against analytical solutions of benchmark radiative problems as well as field measurements in real street canyons. In conjunction with the matrix method resolving infinite number of reflections, the proposed model is capable of predicting the radiative exchange inside the street canyon with good accuracy. Modeling of transient evolution of thermal filed inside the street canyon using the proposed method demonstrate the potential of shade trees in mitigating canyon surface temperatures as well as saving of building energy use. This new numerical framework also deepens our insight into the fundamental physics of radiative heat transfer and surface energy balance for urban climate modeling.

Studies on urban heat island (UHI) have been more than a century after the phenomenon was first discovered in the early 1800s. UHI emerges as the source of many urban environmental problems and exacerbates the living environment in cities. Under the challenges of increasing urbanization and future climate changes, there is a pressing need for sustainable adaptation/mitigation strategies for UHI effects, one popular option being the use of reflective materials. While it is introduced as an effective method to reduce temperature and energy consumption in cities, its impacts on environmental sustainability and large-scale non-local effect are inadequately explored. This paper provides a synthetic overview of potential environmental impacts of reflective materials at a variety of scales, ranging from energy load on a single building to regional hydroclimate. The review shows that mitigation potential of reflective materials depends on a set of factors, including building characteristics, urban environment, meteorological and geographical conditions, to name a few. Precaution needs to be exercised by city planners and policy makers for large-scale deployment of reflective materials before their environmental impacts, especially on regional hydroclimates, are better understood. In general, it is recommended that optimal strategy for UHI needs to be determined on a city-by-city basis, rather than adopting a “one-solution-fits-all” strategy.

Most previous works on complete synchronization of chaotic oscillators focused on the one-channel interaction scheme where the oscillators are coupled through only one variable or a symmetric set of variables. Using the standard framework of master-stability function (MSF), we investigate the emergence of complex synchronization behaviors under all possible configurations of two-channel coupling, which include, for example, all possible cross coupling schemes among the dynamical variables. Utilizing the classic Rössler and Lorenz oscillators, we find a rich variety of synchronization phenomena not present in any previously extensively studied, single-channel coupling configurations. For example, in many cases two coupling channels can enhance or even generate synchronization where there is only weak or no synchronization under only one coupling channel, which has been verified in a coupled neuron system. There are also cases where the oscillators are originally synchronized under one coupling channel, but an additional synchronizable coupling channel can, however, destroy synchronization. Direct numerical simulations of actual synchronization dynamics verify the MSF-based predictions. Our extensive computation and heuristic analysis provide an atlas for synchronization of chaotic oscillators coupled through two channels, which can be used as a systematic reference to facilitate further research in this area.

The hysteresis effect in diurnal cycles of net radiation R-n and ground heat flux G(0) has been observed in many studies, while the governing mechanism remains vague. In this study, we link the phenomenology of hysteresis loops to the wave phase difference between the diurnal evolutions of various terms in the surface energy balance. R-n and G(0) are parameterized with the incoming solar radiation and the surface temperature as two control parameters of the surface energy partitioning. The theoretical analysis shows that the vertical water flux W and the scaled ratio A(s)*/A(T)* (net shortwave radiation to outgoing longwave radiation) play crucial roles in shaping hysteresis loops of R-n and G(0). Comparisons to field measurements indicate that hysteresis loops for different land covers can be well captured by the theoretical model, which is also consistent with Camuffo-Bernadi formula. This study provides insight into the surface partitioning and temporal evolution of the energy budget at the land surface.

This study examines the spatial and temporal patterns of the surface urban heat island (SUHI) intensity in the Phoenix metropolitan area and the relationship with land use land cover (LULC) change between 2000 and 2014. The objective is to identify specific regions in Phoenix that have been increasingly heated and cooled to further understand how LULC change influences the SUHI intensity. The data employed include MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) 8-day composite June imagery, and classified LULC maps generated using 2000 and 2014 Landsat imagery. Results show that the regions that experienced the most significant LST changes during the study period are primarily on the outskirts of the Phoenix metropolitan area for both daytime and nighttime. The conversion to urban, residential, and impervious surfaces from all other LULC types has been identified as the primary cause of the UHI effect in Phoenix. Vegetation cover has been shown to significantly lower LST for both daytime and nighttime due to its strong cooling effect by producing more latent heat flux and less sensible heat flux. We suggest that urban planners, decision-makers, and city managers formulate new policies and regulations that encourage residential, commercial, and industrial developers to include more vegetation when planning new construction.

Resource allocation takes place in various types of real-world complex systems such as urban traffic, social services institutions, economical and ecosystems. Mathematically, the dynamical process of resource allocation can be modeled as minority games. Spontaneous evolution of the resource allocation dynamics, however, often leads to a harmful herding behavior accompanied by strong fluctuations in which a large majority of agents crowd temporarily for a few resources, leaving many others unused. Developing effective control methods to suppress and eliminate herding is an important but open problem. Here we develop a pinning control method, that the fluctuations of the system consist of intrinsic and systematic components allows us to design a control scheme with separated control variables. A striking finding is the universal existence of an optimal pinning fraction to minimize the variance of the system, regardless of the pinning patterns and the network topology. We carry out a generally applicable theory to explain the emergence of optimal pinning and to predict the dependence of the optimal pinning fraction on the network topology. Our work represents a general framework to deal with the broader problem of controlling collective dynamics in complex systems with potential applications in social, economical and political systems.

Successful identification of directed dynamical influence in complex systems is relevant to significant problems of current interest. Traditional methods based on Granger causality and transfer entropy have issues such as difficulty with nonlinearity and large data requirement. Recently a framework based on nonlinear dynamical analysis was proposed to overcome these difficulties. We find, surprisingly, that noise can counterintuitively enhance the detectability of directed dynamical influence. In fact, intentionally injecting a proper amount of asymmetric noise into the available time series has the unexpected benefit of dramatically increasing confidence in ascertaining the directed dynamical influence in the underlying system. This result is established based on both real data and model time series from nonlinear ecosystems. We develop a physical understanding of the beneficial role of noise in enhancing detection of directed dynamical influence.