ASU Scholarship Showcase

Background:
Theory suggests that individual behavioral responses impact the spread of flu-like illnesses, but this has been difficult to empirically characterize. Social distancing is an important component of behavioral response, though analyses have been limited by a lack of behavioral data. Our objective is to use media data to characterize social distancing behavior in order to empirically inform explanatory and predictive epidemiological models.

Methods:
We use data on variation in home television viewing as a proxy for variation in time spent in the home and, by extension, contact. This behavioral proxy is imperfect but appealing since information on a rich and representative sample is collected using consistent techniques across time and most major cities. We study the April-May 2009 outbreak of A/H1N1 in Central Mexico and examine the dynamic behavioral response in aggregate and contrast the observed patterns of various demographic subgroups. We develop and calibrate a dynamic behavioral model of disease transmission informed by the proxy data on daily variation in contact rates and compare it to a standard (non-adaptive) model and a fixed effects model that crudely captures behavior.

Results:
We find that after a demonstrable initial behavioral response (consistent with social distancing) at the onset of the outbreak, there was attenuation in the response before the conclusion of the public health intervention. We find substantial differences in the behavioral response across age subgroups and socioeconomic levels. We also find that the dynamic behavioral and fixed effects transmission models better account for variation in new confirmed cases, generate more stable estimates of the baseline rate of transmission over time and predict the number of new cases over a short horizon with substantially less error.

Conclusions:
Results suggest that A/H1N1 had an innate transmission potential greater than previously thought but this was masked by behavioral responses. Observed differences in behavioral response across demographic groups indicate a potential benefit from targeting social distancing outreach efforts.

On-going efforts to understand the dynamics of coupled social-ecological (or more broadly, coupled infrastructure) systems and common pool resources have led to the generation of numerous datasets based on a large number of case studies. This data has facilitated the identification of important factors and fundamental principles which increase our understanding of such complex systems. However, the data at our disposal are often not easily comparable, have limited scope and scale, and are based on disparate underlying frameworks inhibiting synthesis, meta-analysis, and the validation of findings. Research efforts are further hampered when case inclusion criteria, variable definitions, coding schema, and inter-coder reliability testing are not made explicit in the presentation of research and shared among the research community. This paper first outlines challenges experienced by researchers engaged in a large-scale coding project; then highlights valuable lessons learned; and finally discusses opportunities for further research on comparative case study analysis focusing on social-ecological systems and common pool resources. Includes supplemental materials and appendices published in the International Journal of the Commons 2016 Special Issue. Volume 10 - Issue 2 - 2016.

Governing common pool resources (CPR) in the face of disturbances such as globalization and climate change is challenging. The outcome of any CPR governance regime is the influenced by local combinations of social, institutional, and biophysical factors, as well as cross-scale interdependencies. In this study, we take a step towards understanding multiple-causation of CPR outcomes by analyzing 1) the co-occurrence of Design Principles (DP) by activity (irrigation, fishery and forestry), and 2) the combination(s) of DPs leading to social and ecological success. We analyzed 69 cases pertaining to three different activities: irrigation, fishery, and forestry. We find that the importance of the design principles is dependent upon the natural and hard human made infrastructure (i.e. canals, equipment, vessels etc.). For example, clearly defined social boundaries are important when the natural infrastructure is highly mobile (i.e. tuna fish), while monitoring is more important when the natural infrastructure is more static (i.e. forests or water contained within an irrigation system). However, we also find that congruence between local conditions and rules and proportionality between investment and extraction are key for CPR success independent from the natural and human hard made infrastructure. We further provide new visualization techniques for co-occurrence patterns and add to qualitative comparative analysis by introducing a reliability metric to deal with a large meta-analysis dataset on secondary data where information is missing or uncertain.

Includes supplemental materials and appendices publications in International Journal of the Commons 2016 Special Issue. Volume 10 - Issue 2 - 2016

Background: Increasing our understanding of the factors affecting the severity of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in different regions of the world could lead to improved clinical practice and mitigation strategies for future influenza pandemics. Even though a number of studies have shed light into the risk factors associated with severe outcomes of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza infections in different populations (e.g., [1-5]), analyses of the determinants of mortality risk spanning multiple pandemic waves and geographic regions are scarce. Between-country differences in the mortality burden of the 2009 pandemic could be linked to differences in influenza case management, underlying population health, or intrinsic differences in disease transmission [6]. Additional studies elucidating the determinants of disease severity globally are warranted to guide prevention efforts in future influenza pandemics.

In Mexico, the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic was characterized by a three-wave pattern occurring in the spring, summer, and fall of 2009 with substantial geographical heterogeneity [7]. A recent study suggests that Mexico experienced high excess mortality burden during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic relative to other countries [6]. However, an assessment of potential factors that contributed to the relatively high pandemic death toll in Mexico are lacking. Here, we fill this gap by analyzing a large series of laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases, hospitalizations, and deaths monitored by the Mexican Social Security medical system during April 1 through December 31, 2009 in Mexico. In particular, we quantify the association between disease severity, hospital admission delays, and neuraminidase inhibitor use by demographic characteristics, pandemic wave, and geographic regions of Mexico.

Methods: We analyzed a large series of laboratory-confirmed pandemic A/H1N1 influenza cases from a prospective surveillance system maintained by the Mexican Social Security system, April-December 2009. We considered a spectrum of disease severity encompassing outpatient visits, hospitalizations, and deaths, and recorded demographic and geographic information on individual patients. We assessed the impact of neuraminidase inhibitor treatment and hospital admission delay (≤ > 2 days after disease onset) on the risk of death by multivariate logistic regression.

Results: Approximately 50% of all A/H1N1-positive patients received antiviral medication during the Spring and Summer 2009 pandemic waves in Mexico while only 9% of A/H1N1 cases received antiviral medications during the fall wave (P < 0.0001). After adjustment for age, gender, and geography, antiviral treatment significantly reduced the risk of death (OR = 0.52 (95% CI: 0.30, 0.90)) while longer hospital admission delays increased the risk of death by 2.8-fold (95% CI: 2.25, 3.41).

Conclusions: Our findings underscore the potential impact of decreasing admission delays and increasing antiviral use to mitigate the mortality burden of future influenza pandemics.

We present a new approach to computing event shape distributions or, more precisely, charge flow correlations in a generic conformal field theory (CFT). These infrared finite observables are familiar from collider physics studies and describe the angular distribution of global charges in outgoing radiation created from the vacuum by some source. The charge flow correlations can be expressed in terms of Wightman correlation functions in a certain limit. We explain how to compute these quantities starting from their Euclidean analogues by means of a nontrivial analytic continuation which, in the framework of CFT, can be performed elegantly in Mellin space. The relation between the charge flow correlations and Euclidean correlation functions can be reformulated directly in configuration space, bypassing the Mellin representation, as a certain Lorentzian double discontinuity of the correlation function integrated along the cuts. We illustrate the general formalism in N = 4 SYM, making use of the well-known results on the four-point correlation function of half-BPS scalar operators. We compute the double scalar flow correlation in N = 4 SYM, at weak and strong coupling and show that it agrees with known results obtained by different techniques. One of the remarkable features of the N = 4 theory is that the scalar and energy flow correlations are proportional to each other. Imposing natural physical conditions on the energy flow correlations (finiteness, positivity and regularity), we formulate additional constraints on the four-point correlation functions in N = 4SYM that should be valid at any coupling and away from the planar limit.

The Operator Product Expansion for null polygonal Wilson loop in planar maximally supersymmetric Yang–Mills theory runs systematically in terms of multi-particle pentagon transitions which encode the physics of excitations propagating on the color flux tube ending on the sides of the four-dimensional contour. Their dynamics was unraveled in the past several years and culminated in a complete description of pentagons as an exact function of the 't Hooft coupling. In this paper we provide a solution for the last building block in this program, the SU(4) matrix structure arising from internal symmetry indices of scalars and fermions. This is achieved by a recursive solution of the Mirror and Watson equations obeyed by the so-called singlet pentagons and fixing the form of the twisted component in their tensor decomposition. The non-singlet, or charged, pentagons are deduced from these by a limiting procedure.

We address the near-collinear expansion of NMHV six-particle scattering amplitudes at strong value of the 't Hooft coupling in planar maximally supersymmetric Yang–Mills theory. We complement recent studies of this observable within the context of the Pentagon Operator Product Expansion, via the dual superWilson loop description, by studying effects of multiple scalar exchanges that accompany (or not) massive flux-tube excitations. Due to the fact that holes have a very small, nonperturbatively generated mass m_h which is exponentially suppressed in the 't Hooft coupling, their exchanges must be resummed in the ultraviolet limit, T <<1/m_h. This procedure yields a contribution to the expectation value of the superloop which enters on equal footing with the classical area — a phenomenon which was earlier observed for MHV amplitudes. In all components, the near-massless scalar exchanges factorize from the ones of massive particles, at leading order in strong coupling.

Scattering amplitudes in maximally supersymmetric gauge theory receive a dual description in terms of the expectation value of the super Wilson loop stretched on a null polygonal contour. This makes the analysis amenable to nonperturbative techniques. Presently, we elaborate on a refined form of the operator product expansion in terms of pentagon transitions to compute twist-two contributions to NMHV amplitudes. To start with, we provide a novel derivation of scattering matrices starting from Baxter equations for flux-tube excitations propagating on magnon background. We propose bootstrap equations obeyed by pentagon form factors with nonsinglet quantum numbers with respect to the R-symmetry group and provide solutions to them to all orders in 't Hooft coupling. These are then successfully confronted against available perturbative calculations for NMHV amplitudes to four-loop order.

We address the near-collinear expansion of multiparticle NMHV amplitudes, namely, the heptagon and octagons in the dual language of null polygonal super Wilson loops. In particular, we verify multiparticle factorization of charged pentagon transitions in terms of pentagons for single flux-tube excitations within the framework of refined operator product expansion. We find a perfect agreement with available tree and one-loop data.

Scattering amplitudes in maximally supersymmetric gauge theory are dual to super-Wilson loops on null polygonal contours. The operator product expansion for the latter revealed that their dynamics is governed by the evolution of multiparticle GKP excitations. They were shown to emerge from the spectral problem of an underlying open spin chain. In this work we solve this model with the help of the Baxter Q-operator and Sklyanin's Separation of Variables methods. We provide an explicit construction for eigenfunctions and eigenvalues of GKP excitations. We demonstrate how the former define the so-called multiparticle hexagon transitions in super-Wilson loops and prove their factorized form at leading order of 't Hooft coupling for particle number-preserving transitions that were suggested earlier in a generic case.