ASU Scholarship Showcase

Through the mathematical study of two models we quantify some of the theories of co-development and co-existence of focused groups in the social sciences. This work attempts to develop the mathematical framework behind the social sciences of community formation. By using well developed theories and concepts from ecology and epidemiology we hope to extend the theoretical framework of organizing and self-organizing social groups and communities, including terrorist groups. The main goal of our work is to gain insight into the role of recruitment and retention in the formation and survival of social organizations. Understanding the underlining mechanisms of the spread of ideologies under competition is a fundamental component of this work. Here contacts between core and non-core individuals extend beyond its physical meaning to include indirect interaction and spread of ideas through phone conversations, emails, media sources and other similar mean.

This work focuses on the dynamics of formation of interest groups, either ideological, economical or ecological and thus we explore the questions such as, how do interest groups initiate and co-develop by interacting within a common environment and how do they sustain themselves? Our results show that building and maintaining the core group is essential for the existence and survival of an extreme ideology. Our research also indicates that in the absence of competitive ability (i.e., ability to take from the other core group or share prospective members) the social organization or group that is more committed to its group ideology and manages to strike the right balance between investment in recruitment and retention will prevail. Thus under no cross interaction between two social groups a single trade-off (of these efforts) can support only a single organization. The more efforts that an organization implements to recruit and retain its members the more effective it will be in transmitting the ideology to other vulnerable individuals and thus converting them to believers.

MALDI-TOF MS has been shown capable of rapidly and accurately characterizing bacteria. Highly reproducible spectra are required to ensure reliable characterization. Prior work has shown that spectra acquired manually can have higher reproducibility than those acquired automatically. For this reason, the objective of this study was to optimize automated data acquisition to yield spectra with reproducibility comparable to those acquired manually. Fractional factorial design was used to design experiments for robust optimization of settings, in which values of five parameters (peak selection mass range, signal to noise ratio (S:N), base peak intensity, minimum resolution and number of shots summed) commonly used to facilitate automated data acquisition were varied. Pseudomonas aeruginosa was used as a model bacterium in the designed experiments, and spectra were acquired using an intact cell sample preparation method. Optimum automated data acquisition settings (i.e., those settings yielding the highest reproducibility of replicate mass spectra) were obtained based on statistical analysis of spectra of P. aeruginosa. Finally, spectrum quality and reproducibility obtained from non-optimized and optimized automated data acquisition settings were compared for P. aeruginosa, as well as for two other bacteria, Klebsiella pneumoniae and Serratia marcescens. Results indicated that reproducibility increased from 90% to 97% (p-value [~ over =] 0.002) for P. aeruginosa when more shots were summed and, interestingly, decreased from 95% to 92% (p-value [~ over =] 0.013) with increased threshold minimum resolution. With regard to spectrum quality, highly reproducible spectra were more likely to have high spectrum quality as measured by several quality metrics, except for base peak resolution. Interaction plots suggest that, in cases of low threshold minimum resolution, high reproducibility can be achieved with fewer shots. Optimization yielded more reproducible spectra than non-optimized settings for all three bacteria.

Restoration projects can have varying goals, depending on the specific focus, rationale, and aims for restoration. When restoration projects use project-specific goals to define activities and gauge success without considering broader ecological context, determination of project implications and success can be confounding. We used case studies from the Middle Rio Grande (MRG), southwest USA, to demonstrate how restoration outcomes can rank inconsistently when narrowly-based goals are used. Resource managers have chosen MRG for restoration due to impacts to the natural flood regime, reduced native tree recruitment, and establishment of non-native plants. We show restoration “success” ranks differently based upon three goals: increasing biodiversity, increasing specific ecosystem functions, or restoring native communities. We monitored 12 restored and control sites for seven years. Treatments ranked higher in reducing exotic woody populations, and increasing proportions of native plants and groundwater salvage, but generally worse at removing fuels, and increasing species and habitat structural diversity. Managers cannot rely on the term “restoration” to sufficiently describe a project’s aim. Specific desired outcomes must be defined and monitored. Long-term planning should include flexibility to incorporate provisions for adaptive management to refine treatments to avoid unintended ecological consequences.

It remains challenging to predict regulatory variants in particular tissues or cell types due to highly context-specific gene regulation. By connecting large-scale epigenomic profiles to expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) in a wide range of human tissues/cell types, we identify critical chromatin features that predict variant regulatory potential. We present cepip, a joint likelihood framework, for estimating a variant’s regulatory probability in a context-dependent manner. Our method exhibits significant GWAS signal enrichment and is superior to existing cell type-specific methods. Furthermore, using phenotypically relevant epigenomes to weight the GWAS single-nucleotide polymorphisms, we improve the statistical power of the gene-based association test.

Background: To more accurately quantify the potential impact of the neighbourhood environment on adults’ physical activity (PA), it is important to compare environment-PA associations between periods of the day or week when adults are more versus less likely to be in their neighbourhood and utilise its PA resources. We examined whether, among adults from 10 countries, associations between objectively-assessed neighbourhood environment attributes and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) varied by time of the day and day of the week. The secondary aim was to examine whether such associations varied by employment status, gender and city.

Methods: This cross-sectional study included 6,712 adults from 14 cities across 10 countries with ≥1 day of valid accelerometer-assessed MVPA and complete information on socio-demographic and objectively-assessed environmental characteristics within 0.5 and 1 km street-network buffers around the home. Accelerometer measures (MVPA min/h) were created for six time periods from early morning until late evening/night, for weekdays and weekend days separately. Associations were estimated using generalized additive mixed models.

Results: Time of the day, day of week, gender and employment status were significant moderators of environment-MVPA associations. Land use mix was positively associated with MVPA in women who were employed and in men irrespective of their employment status. The positive associations between MVPA and net residential density, intersection density and land use mix were stronger in the mornings of weekdays and the afternoon/evening periods of both weekdays and weekend days. Associations between number of parks and MVPA were stronger in the mornings and afternoon/evenings irrespective of day of the week. Public transport density showed consistent positive associations with MVPA during weekends, while stronger effects on weekdays were observed in the morning and early evenings.

Conclusions: This study suggests that space and time constraints in adults’ daily activities are important factors that determine the impact of neighbourhood attributes on PA. Consideration of time-specific associations is important to better characterise the magnitude of the effects of the neighbourhood environment on PA. Future research will need to examine the contribution of built environment characteristics of areas surrounding other types of daily life centres (e.g., workplaces) to explaining adults’ PA at specific times of the day.

Background: Previous studies exploring sequence variation in the model legume, Medicago truncatula, relied on mapping short reads to a single reference. However, read-mapping approaches are inadequate to examine large, diverse gene families or to probe variation in repeat-rich or highly divergent genome regions. De novo sequencing and assembly of M. truncatula genomes enables near-comprehensive discovery of structural variants (SVs), analysis of rapidly evolving gene families, and ultimately, construction of a pan-genome.

Results: Genome-wide synteny based on 15 de novo M. truncatula assemblies effectively detected different types of SVs indicating that as much as 22% of the genome is involved in large structural changes, altogether affecting 28% of gene models. A total of 63 million base pairs (Mbp) of novel sequence was discovered, expanding the reference genome space for Medicago by 16%. Pan-genome analysis revealed that 42% (180 Mbp) of genomic sequences is missing in one or more accession, while examination of de novo annotated genes identified 67% (50,700) of all ortholog groups as dispensable – estimates comparable to recent studies in rice, maize and soybean. Rapidly evolving gene families typically associated with biotic interactions and stress response were found to be enriched in the accession-specific gene pool. The nucleotide-binding site leucine-rich repeat (NBS-LRR) family, in particular, harbors the highest level of nucleotide diversity, large effect single nucleotide change, protein diversity, and presence/absence variation. However, the leucine-rich repeat (LRR) and heat shock gene families are disproportionately affected by large effect single nucleotide changes and even higher levels of copy number variation.

Conclusions: Analysis of multiple M. truncatula genomes illustrates the value of de novo assemblies to discover and describe structural variation, something that is often under-estimated when using read-mapping approaches. Comparisons among the de novo assemblies also indicate that different large gene families differ in the architecture of their structural variation.

Background: An evidence-based steps/day translation of U.S. federal guidelines for youth to engage in ≥60 minutes/day of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) would help health researchers, practitioners, and lay professionals charged with increasing youth’s physical activity (PA). The purpose of this study was to determine the number of free-living steps/day (both raw and adjusted to a pedometer scale) that correctly classified children (6–11 years) and adolescents (12–17 years) as meeting the 60-minute MVPA guideline using the 2005–2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) accelerometer data, and to evaluate the 12,000 steps/day recommendation recently adopted by the President’s Challenge Physical Activity and Fitness Awards Program.

Methods: Analyses were conducted among children (n = 915) and adolescents (n = 1,302) in 2011 and 2012. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve plots and classification statistics revealed candidate steps/day cut points that discriminated meeting/not meeting the MVPA threshold by age group, gender and different accelerometer activity cut points. The Evenson and two Freedson age-specific (3 and 4 METs) cut points were used to define minimum MVPA, and optimal steps/day were examined for raw steps and adjusted to a pedometer-scale to facilitate translation to lay populations.

Results: For boys and girls (6–11 years) with ≥ 60 minutes/day of MVPA, a range of 11,500–13,500 uncensored steps/day for children was the optimal range that balanced classification errors. For adolescent boys and girls (12–17) with ≥60 minutes/day of MVPA, 11,500–14,000 uncensored steps/day was optimal. Translation to a pedometer-scaling reduced these minimum values by 2,500 step/day to 9,000 steps/day. Area under the curve was ≥84% in all analyses.

Conclusions: No single study has definitively identified a precise and unyielding steps/day value for youth. Considering the other evidence to date, we propose a reasonable ‘rule of thumb’ value of ≥ 11,500 accelerometer-determined steps/day for both children and adolescents (and both genders), accepting that more is better. For practical applications, 9,000 steps/day appears to be a more pedometer-friendly value.

Background: Physical activity (PA) interventions typically include components or doses that are static across participants. Adaptive interventions are dynamic; components or doses change in response to short-term variations in participant's performance. Emerging theory and technologies make adaptive goal setting and feedback interventions feasible.

Objective: To test an adaptive intervention for PA based on Operant and Behavior Economic principles and a percentile-based algorithm. The adaptive intervention was hypothesized to result in greater increases in steps per day than the static intervention.

Methods: Participants (N = 20) were randomized to one of two 6-month treatments: 1) static intervention (SI) or 2) adaptive intervention (AI). Inactive overweight adults (85% women, M = 36.9±9.2 years, 35% non-white) in both groups received a pedometer, email and text message communication, brief health information, and biweekly motivational prompts. The AI group received daily step goals that adjusted up and down based on the percentile-rank algorithm and micro-incentives for goal attainment. This algorithm adjusted goals based on a moving window; an approach that responded to each individual's performance and ensured goals were always challenging but within participants' abilities. The SI group received a static 10,000 steps/day goal with incentives linked to uploading the pedometer's data.

Results: A random-effects repeated-measures model accounted for 180 repeated measures and autocorrelation. After adjusting for covariates, the treatment phase showed greater steps/day relative to the baseline phase (p<.001) and a group by study phase interaction was observed (p = .017). The SI group increased by 1,598 steps/day on average between baseline and treatment while the AI group increased by 2,728 steps/day on average between baseline and treatment; a significant between-group difference of 1,130 steps/day (Cohen's d = .74).

Conclusions: The adaptive intervention outperformed the static intervention for increasing PA. The adaptive goal and feedback algorithm is a “behavior change technology” that could be incorporated into mHealth technologies and scaled to reach large populations.

This survey of 206 forensic psychologists tested the “filtering” effects of preexisting expert attitudes in adversarial proceedings. Results confirmed the hypothesis that evaluator attitudes toward capital punishment influence willingness to accept capital case referrals from particular adversarial parties. Stronger death penalty opposition was associated with higher willingness to conduct evaluations for the defense and higher likelihood of rejecting referrals from all sources. Conversely, stronger support was associated with higher willingness to be involved in capital cases generally, regardless of referral source. The findings raise the specter of skewed evaluator involvement in capital evaluations, where evaluators willing to do capital casework may have stronger capital punishment support than evaluators who opt out, and evaluators with strong opposition may work selectively for the defense. The results may provide a partial explanation for the “allegiance effect” in adversarial legal settings such that preexisting attitudes may contribute to partisan participation through a self-selection process.

Multitrophic communities that maintain the functionality of the extreme Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems, while the simplest of any natural community, are still challenging our knowledge about the limits to life on earth. In this study, we describe and interpret the linkage between the diversity of different trophic level communities to the geological morphology and soil geochemistry in the remote Transantarctic Mountains (Darwin Mountains, 80°S). We examined the distribution and diversity of biota (bacteria, cyanobacteria, lichens, algae, invertebrates) with respect to elevation, age of glacial drift sheets, and soil physicochemistry. Results showed an abiotic spatial gradient with respect to the diversity of the organisms across different trophic levels. More complex communities, in terms of trophic level diversity, were related to the weakly developed younger drifts (Hatherton and Britannia) with higher soil C/N ratio and lower total soluble salts content (thus lower conductivity). Our results indicate that an increase of ion concentration from younger to older drift regions drives a succession of complex to more simple communities, in terms of number of trophic levels and diversity within each group of organisms analysed. This study revealed that integrating diversity across multi-trophic levels of biotic communities with abiotic spatial heterogeneity and geological history is fundamental to understand environmental constraints influencing biological distribution in Antarctic soil ecosystems.