ASU Scholarship Showcase

Extreme events, a type of collective behavior in complex networked dynamical systems, often can have catastrophic consequences. To develop effective strategies to control extreme events is of fundamental importance and practical interest. Utilizing transportation dynamics on complex networks as a prototypical setting, we find that making the network “mobile” can effectively suppress extreme events. A striking, resonance-like phenomenon is uncovered, where an optimal degree of mobility exists for which the probability of extreme events is minimized. We derive an analytic theory to understand the mechanism of control at a detailed and quantitative level, and validate the theory numerically. Implications of our finding to current areas such as cybersecurity are discussed.

The relation between flux and fluctuation is fundamental to complex physical systems that support and transport flows. A recently obtained law predicts monotonous enhancement of fluctuation as the average flux is increased, which in principle is valid but only for large systems. For realistic complex systems of small sizes, this law breaks down when both the average flux and fluctuation become large. Here we demonstrate the failure of this law in small systems using real data and model complex networked systems, derive analytically a modified flux-fluctuation law, and validate it through computations of a large number of complex networked systems. Our law is more general in that its predictions agree with numerics and it reduces naturally to the previous law in the limit of large system size, leading to new insights into the flow dynamics in small-size complex systems with significant implications for the statistical and scaling behaviors of small systems, a topic of great recent interest.

Evolutionary dynamical models for cyclic competitions of three species (e.g., rock, paper, and scissors, or RPS) provide a paradigm, at the microscopic level of individual interactions, to address many issues in coexistence and biodiversity. Real ecosystems often involve competitions among more than three species. By extending the RPS game model to five (rock-paper-scissors-lizard-Spock, or RPSLS) mobile species, we uncover a fundamental type of mesoscopic interactions among subgroups of species. In particular, competitions at the microscopic level lead to the emergence of various local groups in different regions of the space, each involving three species. It is the interactions among the groups that fundamentally determine how many species can coexist. In fact, as the mobility is increased from zero, two transitions can occur: one from a five- to a three-species coexistence state and another from the latter to a uniform, single-species state. We develop a mean-field theory to show that, in order to understand the first transition, group interactions at the mesoscopic scale must be taken into account. Our findings suggest, more broadly, the importance of mesoscopic interactions in coexistence of great many species.

Dynamical systems based on the minority game (MG) have been a paradigm for gaining significant insights into a variety of social and biological behaviors. Recently, a grouping phenomenon has been unveiled in MG systems of multiple resources (strategies) in which the strategies spontaneously break into an even number of groups, each exhibiting an identical oscillation pattern in the attendance of game players. Here we report our finding of spontaneous breakup of resources into three groups, each exhibiting period-three oscillations. An analysis is developed to understand the emergence of the striking phenomenon of triple grouping and period-three oscillations. In the presence of random disturbances, the triple-group/period-three state becomes transient, and we obtain explicit formula for the average transient lifetime using two methods of approximation. Our finding indicates that, period-three oscillation, regarded as one of the most fundamental behaviors in smooth nonlinear dynamical systems, can also occur in much more complex, evolutionary-game dynamical systems. Our result also provides a plausible insight for the occurrence of triple grouping observed, for example, in the U.S. housing market.

Understanding the dynamics of human movements is key to issues of significant current interest such as behavioral prediction, recommendation, and control of epidemic spreading. We collect and analyze big data sets of human movements in both cyberspace (through browsing of websites) and physical space (through mobile towers) and find a superlinear scaling relation between the mean frequency of visit〈f〉and its fluctuation σ : σ ∼〈f⟩^β with β ≈ 1.2. The probability distribution of the visiting frequency is found to be a stretched exponential function. We develop a model incorporating two essential ingredients, preferential return and exploration, and show that these are necessary for generating the scaling relation extracted from real data. A striking finding is that human movements in cyberspace and physical space are strongly correlated, indicating a distinctive behavioral identifying characteristic and implying that the behaviors in one space can be used to predict those in the other.

Perchloroethylene (PCE) is a highly utilized solvent in the dry cleaning industry because of its cleaning effectiveness and relatively low cost to consumers. According to the 2006 U.S. Census, approximately 28,000 dry cleaning operations used PCE as their principal cleaning agent. Widespread use of PCE is problematic because of its adverse impacts on human health and environmental quality. As PCE use is curtailed, effective alternatives must be analyzed for their toxicity and impacts to human health and the environment. Potential alternatives to PCE in dry cleaning include dipropylene glycol n-butyl ether (DPnB) and dipropylene glycol tert-butyl ether (DPtB), both promising to pose a relatively smaller risk. To evaluate these two alternatives to PCE, we established and scored performance criteria, including chemical toxicity, employee and customer exposure levels, impacts on the general population, costs of each system, and cleaning efficacy. The scores received for PCE were 5, 5, 3, 5, 3, and 3, respectively, and DPnB and DPtB scored 3, 1, 2, 2, 4, and 4, respectively. An aggregate sum of the performance criteria yielded a favorably low score of “16” for both DPnB and DPtB compared to “24” for PCE. We conclude that DPnB and DPtB are preferable dry cleaning agents, exhibiting reduced human toxicity and a lesser adverse impact on human health and the environment compared to PCE, with comparable capital investments, and moderately higher annual operating costs.

A meta-analysis was conducted to inform the epistemology, or theory of knowledge, of contaminants of emerging concern (CECs). The CEC terminology acknowledges the existence of harmful environmental agents whose identities, occurrences, hazards, and effects are not sufficiently understood. Here, data on publishing activity were analyzed for 12 CECs, revealing a common pattern of emergence, suitable for identifying past years of peak concern and forecasting future ones: dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT; 1972, 2008), trichloroacetic acid (TCAA; 1972, 2009), nitrosodimethylamine (1984), methyl tert-butyl ether (2001), trichloroethylene (2005), perchlorate (2006), 1,4-dioxane (2009), prions (2009), triclocarban (2010), triclosan (2012), nanomaterials (by 2016), and microplastics (2022 ± 4). CECs were found to emerge from obscurity to the height of concern in 14.1 ± 3.6 years, and subside to a new baseline level of concern in 14.5 ± 4.5 years. CECs can emerge more than once (e.g., TCAA, DDT) and the multifactorial process of emergence may be driven by inception of novel scientific methods (e.g., ion chromatography, mass spectrometry and nanometrology), scientific paradigm shifts (discovery of infectious proteins), and the development, marketing and mass consumption of novel products (antimicrobial personal care products, microplastics and nanomaterials). Publishing activity and U.S. regulatory actions were correlated for several CECs investigated.

Nanoscale zero-valent iron (nZVI) is a strong nonspecific reducing agent that is used for in situ degradation of chlorinated solvents and other oxidized pollutants. However, there are significant concerns regarding the risks posed by the deliberate release of engineered nanomaterials into the environment, which have triggered moratoria, for example, in the United Kingdom. This critical review focuses on the effect of nZVI injection on subsurface microbial communities, which are of interest due to their important role in contaminant attenuation processes. Corrosion of ZVI stimulates dehalorespiring bacteria, due to the production of H₂ that can serve as an electron donor for reduction of chlorinated contaminants. Conversely, laboratory studies show that nZVI can be inhibitory to pure bacterial cultures, although toxicity is reduced when nZVI is coated with polyelectrolytes or natural organic matter. The emerging toolkit of molecular biological analyses should enable a more sophisticated assessment of combined nZVI/biostimulation or bioaugmentation approaches. While further research on the consequences of its application for subsurface microbial communities is needed, nZVI continues to hold promise as an innovative technology for in situ remediation of pollutants It is particularly attractive. for the remediation of subsurface environments containing chlorinated ethenes because of its ability to potentially elicit and sustain both physical–chemical and biological removal despite its documented antimicrobial properties.

What's a profession without a code of ethics? Being a legitimate profession almost requires drafting a code and, at least nominally, making members follow it. Codes of ethics (henceforth “codes”) exist for a number of reasons, many of which can vary widely from profession to profession - but above all they are a form of codified self-regulation. While codes can be beneficial, it argues that when we scratch below the surface, there are many problems at their root. In terms of efficacy, codes can serve as a form of ethical window dressing, rather than effective rules for behavior. But even more that, codes can degrade the meaning behind being a good person who acts ethically for the right reasons.