ASU Scholarship Showcase

This paper studies the effect of targeted observations on state and parameter estimates determined with Kalman filter data assimilation (DA) techniques. We first provide an analytical result demonstrating that targeting observations within the Kalman filter for a linear model can significantly reduce state estimation error as opposed to fixed or randomly located observations. We next conduct observing system simulation experiments for a chaotic model of meteorological interest, where we demonstrate that the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with targeted observations based on largest ensemble variance is skillful in providing more accurate state estimates than the LETKF with randomly located observations. Additionally, we find that a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter parameter estimation method accurately updates model parameters within the targeted observation context to further improve state estimation.

The effects of urbanization on ozone levels have been widely investigated over cities primarily located in temperate and/or humid regions. In this study, nested WRF-Chem simulations with a finest grid resolution of 1 km are conducted to investigate ozone concentrations O₃ due to urbanization within cities in arid/semi-arid environments. First, a method based on a shape preserving Monotonic Cubic Interpolation (MCI) is developed and used to downscale anthropogenic emissions from the 4 km resolution 2005 National Emissions Inventory (NEI05) to the finest model resolution of 1 km. Using the rapidly expanding Phoenix metropolitan region as the area of focus, we demonstrate the proposed MCI method achieves ozone simulation results with appreciably improved correspondence to observations relative to the default interpolation method of the WRF-Chem system. Next, two additional sets of experiments are conducted, with the recommended MCI approach, to examine impacts of urbanization on ozone production: (1) the urban land cover is included (i.e., urbanization experiments) and, (2) the urban land cover is replaced with the region's native shrubland. Impacts due to the presence of the built environment on O₃ are highly heterogeneous across the metropolitan area. Increased near surface O₃ due to urbanization of 10–20 ppb is predominantly a nighttime phenomenon while simulated impacts during daytime are negligible. Urbanization narrows the daily O₃ range (by virtue of increasing nighttime minima), an impact largely due to the region's urban heat island. Our results demonstrate the importance of the MCI method for accurate representation of the diurnal profile of ozone, and highlight its utility for high-resolution air quality simulations for urban areas.

On-going efforts to understand the dynamics of coupled social-ecological (or more broadly, coupled infrastructure) systems and common pool resources have led to the generation of numerous datasets based on a large number of case studies. This data has facilitated the identification of important factors and fundamental principles which increase our understanding of such complex systems. However, the data at our disposal are often not easily comparable, have limited scope and scale, and are based on disparate underlying frameworks inhibiting synthesis, meta-analysis, and the validation of findings. Research efforts are further hampered when case inclusion criteria, variable definitions, coding schema, and inter-coder reliability testing are not made explicit in the presentation of research and shared among the research community. This paper first outlines challenges experienced by researchers engaged in a large-scale coding project; then highlights valuable lessons learned; and finally discusses opportunities for further research on comparative case study analysis focusing on social-ecological systems and common pool resources. Includes supplemental materials and appendices published in the International Journal of the Commons 2016 Special Issue. Volume 10 - Issue 2 - 2016.

Background: African American women are one of the least active demographic groups in the US, with only 36% meeting the national physical activity recommendations in comparison to 46% of White women. Physical activity begins to decline in African American women in adolescence and continues to decline into young adulthood. Yet, few interventions have been developed to promote physical activity in African American women during this critical period of life. The purpose of this article was to evaluate the acceptability and feasibility of a culturally-relevant Internet-enhanced physical activity pilot intervention for overweight/obese African American college females and to examine psychosocial and behavioral characteristics associated with intervention adherence and completion.

Methods: A 6-month single group pre-posttest design was used. Participants (n = 27) accessed a culturally-relevant Social Cognitive Theory-based physical activity promotion website while engaging in a minimum of four moderate-intensity physical activity sessions each week. Acceptability and feasibility of the intervention was assessed by participant retention and a consumer satisfaction survey completed by participants.

Results: Fifty-six percent of participants (n = 15) completed the intervention. Study completers were more physically active at baseline (P = 0.05) and had greater social support for exercise from family members (P = 0.04). Sixty percent of study completers (n = 9) reported the website as “enjoyable” or “very enjoyable” to use and 60% (n = 9) reported increased motivation from participation in the physical activity program. Moreover, 87% (n = 13) reported they would recommend the website to a friend.

Conclusions: Results provide some preliminary support for the acceptability and feasibility of an Internet-enhanced physical activity program for overweight/obese African American women, while highlighting important limitations of the approach. Successful promotion of physical activity in college aged African American women as they emerge into adulthood may result in the development of life-long healthy physical activity patterns which may ultimately reduce physical activity-related health disparities in this high risk underserved population. Future studies with larger samples are needed to further explore the use of Internet-based programs to promote physical activity in this population.

Objective: This cross sectional study aims to determine the effects of gender and parental perception of safety at school on children’s physical activity (PA) levels.

Materials and Methods: Parents of school aged Mexican children residing in Guadalajara, Mexico City, and Puerto Vallarta, completed surveys about their children’s PA measures. The physical activity indicators were evaluated using linear and logistical regression models.

Results: Analysis did not indicate that gender moderated the relationship between parental perception of safety and PA measures, but significant gender issues exist with girls participating less than boys in the three measures of PA in this study (p<0.001).

Conclusion: Results suggest the need for additional interventions promoting physical activity in girls in Mexico.

At the end of the dark ages, anatomy was taught as though everything that could be known was known. Scholars learned about what had been discovered rather than how to make discoveries. This was true even though the body (and the rest of biology) was very poorly understood. The renaissance eventually brought a revolution in how scholars (and graduate students) were trained and worked. This revolution never occurred in K-12 or university education such that we now teach young students in much the way that scholars were taught in the dark ages, we teach them what is already known rather than the process of knowing. Citizen science offers a way to change K-12 and university education and, in doing so, complete the renaissance. Here we offer an example of such an approach and call for change in the way students are taught science, change that is more possible than it has ever been and is, nonetheless, five hundred years delayed.

Changes in distribution policies have increased median MELD at transplant with recipients requiring increasing intensive care perioperatively. We aimed to evaluate association of preoperative variables with postoperative respiratory failure (PRF)/increased intensive care unit length of stay (ICU LOS)/short-term survival in a high MELD cohort undergoing liver transplant (LT). Retrospective analysis identified cases of PRF and increased ICU LOS with recipient, donor, and surgical variables examined. Variables were entered into regression with end points of PRF and ICU LOS > 3 days. 164 recipients were examined: 41 (25.0%) experienced PRF and 74 (45.1%) prolonged ICU LOS. Significant predictors of PRF with univariate analysis: BMI > 30, pretransplant MELD, preoperative respiratory failure, LVEF < 50%, FVC < 80%, intraoperative transfusion > 6 units, warm ischemic time > 4 minutes, and cold ischemic time > 240 minutes. On multivariate analysis, only pretransplant MELD predicted PRF (OR 1.14, 𝑝 = 0.01). Significant predictors of prolonged ICU LOS with univariate analysis are as follows: pretransplant MELD, FVC < 80%, FEV1 < 80%, deceased donor, and cold ischemic time > 240 minutes. On multivariate analysis, only pretransplant MELD predicted prolonged ICU LOS (OR 1.28, 𝑝 < 0.001). One-year survival among cohorts with PRF and increased ICU LOS was similar to subjects without. Pretransplant MELD is a robust predictor of PRF and ICU LOS. Higher MELDs at LT are expected to increase need for ICU utilization and modify expectations for recovery in the immediate postoperative period.

Objectives: To determine the off-shift sleep strategies of bi-ethnic night-shift nurses, the relationship between these sleep strategies and adaptation to shift work, and identify the participant-level characteristics associated with a given sleep strategy.

Methods: African-American and non-Hispanic White female, night-shift nurses from an academic hospital were recruited to complete a survey on sleep–wake patterns (n = 213). Participants completed the standard shiftwork index and the biological clocks questionnaire to determine sleep strategies and adaptation to night-shift work. In addition, chronotype was determined quantitatively with a modified version of the Munich ChronoType Questionnaire. Most participants worked ~3 consecutive 12-h night-shifts followed by several days off.

Results: Five sleep strategies used on days off were identified: (a) night stay, (b) nap proxy, (c) switch sleeper, (d) no sleep, and (e) incomplete switcher. Nap proxy and no sleep types were associated with poorer adaptation to night-shift work. The switch sleeper and incomplete switcher types were identified as more adaptive strategies that were associated with less sleep disturbance, a later chronotype, and less cardiovascular problems.

Conclusion: Behavioral sleep strategies are related to adaptation to a typical night-shift schedule among hospital nurses. Nurses are crucial to the safety and well-being of their patients. Therefore, adoption of more adaptive sleep strategies may reduce sleep/wake dysregulation in this population, and improve cardiovascular outcomes.

Previous studies have shown that parental protectiveness is associated with increased pain and disability in Functional Abdominal Pain Disorder (FAPD) but the role that perceived child self-efficacy may play remains unclear. One reason why parents may react protectively towards their child’s pain is that they perceive their child to be unable to cope or function normally while in pain (perceived low self-efficacy). This study sought to examine (a) the association between parent-perceived child pain self-efficacy and child health outcomes (symptom severity and disability); and (b) the role of parental protectiveness as a mediator of this association. Participants were 316 parents of children aged 7–12 years with FAPD. Parents completed measures of perceived child self-efficacy when in pain, their own protective responses to their child’s pain, child gastrointestinal (GI) symptom severity, and child functional disability. Parent-perceived child self-efficacy was inversely associated with parent-reported child GI symptom severity and disability, and parental protectiveness mediated these associations. These results suggest that parents who perceive their child to have low self-efficacy to cope with pain respond more protectively when they believe he/she is in pain, and this, in turn, is associated with higher levels of GI symptoms and disability in their child. This finding suggests that directly addressing parent beliefs about their child’s ability to manage pain should be included as a component of FAPD, and potentially other child treatment interventions.