ASU Scholarship Showcase

Background:
Theory suggests that individual behavioral responses impact the spread of flu-like illnesses, but this has been difficult to empirically characterize. Social distancing is an important component of behavioral response, though analyses have been limited by a lack of behavioral data. Our objective is to use media data to characterize social distancing behavior in order to empirically inform explanatory and predictive epidemiological models.

Methods:
We use data on variation in home television viewing as a proxy for variation in time spent in the home and, by extension, contact. This behavioral proxy is imperfect but appealing since information on a rich and representative sample is collected using consistent techniques across time and most major cities. We study the April-May 2009 outbreak of A/H1N1 in Central Mexico and examine the dynamic behavioral response in aggregate and contrast the observed patterns of various demographic subgroups. We develop and calibrate a dynamic behavioral model of disease transmission informed by the proxy data on daily variation in contact rates and compare it to a standard (non-adaptive) model and a fixed effects model that crudely captures behavior.

Results:
We find that after a demonstrable initial behavioral response (consistent with social distancing) at the onset of the outbreak, there was attenuation in the response before the conclusion of the public health intervention. We find substantial differences in the behavioral response across age subgroups and socioeconomic levels. We also find that the dynamic behavioral and fixed effects transmission models better account for variation in new confirmed cases, generate more stable estimates of the baseline rate of transmission over time and predict the number of new cases over a short horizon with substantially less error.

Conclusions:
Results suggest that A/H1N1 had an innate transmission potential greater than previously thought but this was masked by behavioral responses. Observed differences in behavioral response across demographic groups indicate a potential benefit from targeting social distancing outreach efforts.

Stone-tipped weapons were a significant innovation for Middle Pleistocene hominins. Hafted hunting technology represents the development of new cognitive and social learning mechanisms within the genus Homo, and may have provided a foraging advantage over simpler forms of hunting technology, such as a sharpened wooden spear. However, the nature of this foraging advantage has not been confirmed. Experimental studies and ethnographic reports provide conflicting results regarding the relative importance of the functional, economic, and social roles of hafted hunting technology. The controlled experiment reported here was designed to test the functional hypothesis for stone-tipped weapons using spears and ballistics gelatin. It differs from previous investigations of this type because it includes a quantitative analysis of wound track profiles and focuses specifically on hand-delivered spear technology. Our results do not support the hypothesis that tipped spears penetrate deeper than untipped spears. However, tipped spears create a significantly larger inner wound cavity that widens distally. This inner wound cavity is analogous to the permanent wound cavity in ballistics research, which is considered the key variable affecting the relative ‘stopping power’ or ‘killing power’ of a penetrating weapon. Tipped spears conferred a functional advantage to Middle Pleistocene hominins, potentially affecting the frequency and regularity of hunting success with important implications for human adaptation and life history.

The threat of West Nile virus (WNV) epidemics with increasingly severe neuroinvasive infections demands the development and licensing of effective vaccines. To date, vaccine candidates based on inactivated, live-attenuated, or chimeric virus, and viral DNA and WNV protein subunits have been developed. Some have been approved for veterinary use or are under clinical investigation, yet no vaccine has been licensed for human use. Reaching the milestone of a commercialized human vaccine, however, may largely depend on the economics of vaccine production. Analysis suggests that currently only novel low-cost production technologies would allow vaccination to outcompete the cost of surveillance and clinical treatment. Here, we review progress using plants to address the economic challenges of WNV vaccine production. The advantages of plants as hosts for vaccine production in cost, speed and scalability, especially those of viral vector-based transient expression systems, are discussed. The progress in developing WNV subunit vaccines in plants is reviewed within the context of their expression, characterization, downstream processing, and immunogenicity in animal models. The development of vaccines based on enveloped and non-enveloped virus-like particles is also discussed. These advancements suggest that plants may provide a production platform that offers potent, safe and affordable human vaccines against WNV.

Osteosarcoma is the most common bone cancer in children and adolescents. Although 70% of patients with localized disease are cured with chemotherapy and surgical resection, patients with metastatic osteosarcoma are typically refractory to treatment. Numerous lines of evidence suggest that cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) limit the development of metastatic osteosarcoma. We have investigated the role of PD-1, an inhibitory TNFR family protein expressed on CTLs, in limiting the efficacy of immune-mediated control of metastatic osteosarcoma. We show that human metastatic, but not primary, osteosarcoma tumors express a ligand for PD-1 (PD-L1) and that tumor-infiltrating CTLs express PD-1, suggesting this pathway may limit CTLs control of metastatic osteosarcoma in patients. PD-L1 is also expressed on the K7M2 osteosarcoma tumor cell line that establishes metastases in mice, and PD-1 is expressed on tumor-infiltrating CTLs during disease progression. Blockade of PD-1/PD-L1 interactions dramatically improves the function of osteosarcoma-reactive CTLs in vitro and in vivo, and results in decreased tumor burden and increased survival in the K7M2 mouse model of metastatic osteosarcoma. Our results suggest that blockade of PD-1/PD-L1 interactions in patients with metastatic osteosarcoma should be pursued as a therapeutic strategy.

Background: Increasing our understanding of the factors affecting the severity of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in different regions of the world could lead to improved clinical practice and mitigation strategies for future influenza pandemics. Even though a number of studies have shed light into the risk factors associated with severe outcomes of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza infections in different populations (e.g., [1-5]), analyses of the determinants of mortality risk spanning multiple pandemic waves and geographic regions are scarce. Between-country differences in the mortality burden of the 2009 pandemic could be linked to differences in influenza case management, underlying population health, or intrinsic differences in disease transmission [6]. Additional studies elucidating the determinants of disease severity globally are warranted to guide prevention efforts in future influenza pandemics.

In Mexico, the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic was characterized by a three-wave pattern occurring in the spring, summer, and fall of 2009 with substantial geographical heterogeneity [7]. A recent study suggests that Mexico experienced high excess mortality burden during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic relative to other countries [6]. However, an assessment of potential factors that contributed to the relatively high pandemic death toll in Mexico are lacking. Here, we fill this gap by analyzing a large series of laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases, hospitalizations, and deaths monitored by the Mexican Social Security medical system during April 1 through December 31, 2009 in Mexico. In particular, we quantify the association between disease severity, hospital admission delays, and neuraminidase inhibitor use by demographic characteristics, pandemic wave, and geographic regions of Mexico.

Methods: We analyzed a large series of laboratory-confirmed pandemic A/H1N1 influenza cases from a prospective surveillance system maintained by the Mexican Social Security system, April-December 2009. We considered a spectrum of disease severity encompassing outpatient visits, hospitalizations, and deaths, and recorded demographic and geographic information on individual patients. We assessed the impact of neuraminidase inhibitor treatment and hospital admission delay (≤ > 2 days after disease onset) on the risk of death by multivariate logistic regression.

Results: Approximately 50% of all A/H1N1-positive patients received antiviral medication during the Spring and Summer 2009 pandemic waves in Mexico while only 9% of A/H1N1 cases received antiviral medications during the fall wave (P < 0.0001). After adjustment for age, gender, and geography, antiviral treatment significantly reduced the risk of death (OR = 0.52 (95% CI: 0.30, 0.90)) while longer hospital admission delays increased the risk of death by 2.8-fold (95% CI: 2.25, 3.41).

Conclusions: Our findings underscore the potential impact of decreasing admission delays and increasing antiviral use to mitigate the mortality burden of future influenza pandemics.

The Middle Stone Age (MSA) is associated with early evidence for symbolic material culture and complex technological innovations. However, one of the most visible aspects of MSA technologies are unretouched triangular stone points that appear in the archaeological record as early as 500,000 years ago in Africa and persist throughout the MSA. How these tools were being used and discarded across a changing Pleistocene landscape can provide insight into how MSA populations prioritized technological and foraging decisions. Creating inferential links between experimental and archaeological tool use helps to establish prehistoric tool function, but is complicated by the overlaying of post-depositional damage onto behaviorally worn tools. Taphonomic damage patterning can provide insight into site formation history, but may preclude behavioral interpretations of tool function. Here, multiple experimental processes that form edge damage on unretouched lithic points from taphonomic and behavioral processes are presented. These provide experimental distributions of wear on tool edges from known processes that are then quantitatively compared to the archaeological patterning of stone point edge damage from three MSA lithic assemblages—Kathu Pan 1, Pinnacle Point Cave 13B, and Die Kelders Cave 1. By using a model-fitting approach, the results presented here provide evidence for variable MSA behavioral strategies of stone point utilization on the landscape consistent with armature tips at KP1, and cutting tools at PP13B and DK1, as well as damage contributions from post-depositional sources across assemblages. This study provides a method with which landscape-scale questions of early modern human tool-use and site-use can be addressed.

We formulate an in silico model of pathogen avoidance mechanism and investigate its impact on defensive behavioural measures (e.g., spontaneous social exclusions and distancing, crowd avoidance and voluntary vaccination adaptation). In particular, we use SIR(B)S (e.g., susceptible-infected-recovered with additional behavioural component) model to investigate the impact of homo-psychologicus aspects of epidemics. We focus on reactionary behavioural changes, which apply to both social distancing and voluntary vaccination participations. Our analyses reveal complex relationships between spontaneous and uncoordinated behavioural changes, the emergence of its contagion properties, and mitigation of infectious diseases. We find that the presence of effective behavioural changes can impede the persistence of disease. Furthermore, it was found that under perfect effective behavioural change, there are three regions in the response factor (e.g., imitation and/or reactionary) and behavioural scale factor (e.g., global/local) factors ρ–α behavioural space. Mainly, (1) disease is always endemic even in the presence of behavioural change, (2) behavioural-prevalence plasticity is observed and disease can sometimes be eradication, and (3) elimination of endemic disease under permanence of permanent behavioural change is achieved. These results suggest that preventive behavioural changes (e.g., non-pharmaceutical prophylactic measures, social distancing and exclusion, crowd avoidance) are influenced by individual differences in perception of risks and are a salient feature of epidemics. Additionally, these findings indicates that care needs to be taken when considering the effect of adaptive behavioural change in predicting the course of epidemics, and as well as the interpretation and development of the public health measures that account for spontaneous behavioural changes.

Cervical cancer is the most common malignancy among women particularly in developing countries, with human papillomavirus (HPV) 16 causing 50% of invasive cervical cancers. A plant-based HPV vaccine is an alternative to the currently available virus-like particle (VLP) vaccines, and would be much less expensive. We optimized methods to express HPV16 L1 protein and purify VLPs from tobacco (Nicotiana benthamiana) leaves transfected with the magnICON deconstructed viral vector expression system. L1 proteins were extracted from agro-infiltrated leaves using a series of pH and salt mediated buffers. Expression levels of L1 proteins and VLPs were verified by immunoblot and ELISA, which confirmed the presence of sequential and conformational epitopes, respectively. Among three constructs tested (16L1d22, TPL1d22, and TPL1F), TPL1F, containing a full-length L1 and chloroplast transit peptide, was best. Extraction of HPV16 L1 from leaf tissue was most efficient (> 2.5% of total soluble protein) with a low-salt phosphate buffer. VLPs were purified using both cesium chloride (CsCl) density gradient and size exclusion chromatography. Electron microscopy studies confirmed the presence of assembled forms of HPV16 L1 VLPs. Collectively; our results indicated that chloroplast-targeted transient expression in tobacco plants is promising for the production of a cheap, efficacious HPV16 L1 VLP vaccine. Studies are underway to develop plant VLPs for the production of a cervical cancer vaccine.

The botanical, Astragalus membranaceus, is a therapeutic in traditional Chinese medicine. Limited literature exists on the overall in vivo effects of A. membranaceus on the human body. This study evaluates the physiological responses to A. membranaceus by measuring leukocyte, platelet, and cytokine responses as well as body temperature and blood pressure in healthy individuals after the in vivo administration of A. membranaceus. A dose-dependent increase in monocytes, neutrophils, and lymphocytes was measured 8–12 hours after administration and an increase in the number of circulating platelets was seen as early as 4 hours. A dynamic change in the levels of circulating cytokines was observed, especially in interferon-γ and tumor necrosis factor-α, IL-13, IL-6, and soluble IL-2R. Subjective symptoms reported by participants were similar to those typically experienced in viral type immune responses and included fatigue, malaise, and headache. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure were reduced within 4 hours after administration, while body temperature mildly increased within 8 hours after administration. In general, all responses returned to baseline values by 24 hours. Collectively, these results support the role of A. membranaceus in priming for a potential immune response as well as its effect on blood flow and wound healing.

We previously reported a recombinant protein production system based on a geminivirus replicon that yields high levels of vaccine antigens and monoclonal antibodies in plants. The bean yellow dwarf virus (BeYDV) replicon generates massive amounts of DNA copies, which engage the plant transcription machinery. However, we noticed a disparity between transcript level and protein production, suggesting that mRNAs could be more efficiently utilized. In this study, we systematically evaluated genetic elements from human, viral, and plant sources for their potential to improve the BeYDV system. The tobacco extensin terminator enhanced transcript accumulation and protein production compared to other commonly used terminators, indicating that efficient transcript processing plays an important role in recombinant protein production.

Evaluation of human-derived 5′ untranslated regions (UTRs) indicated that many provided high levels of protein production, supporting their cross-kingdom function. Among the viral 5′ UTRs tested, we found the greatest enhancement with the tobacco mosaic virus omega leader. An analysis of the 5′ UTRs from the Arabidopsis thaliana and Nicotinana benthamiana photosystem I K genes found that they were highly active when truncated to include only the near upstream region, providing a dramatic enhancement of transgene production that exceeded that of the tobacco mosaic virus omega leader. The tobacco Rb7 matrix attachment region inserted downstream from the gene of interest provided significant enhancement, which was correlated with a reduction in plant cell death. Evaluation of Agrobacterium strains found that EHA105 enhanced protein production and reduced cell death compared to LBA4301 and GV3101. We used these improvements to produce Norwalk virus capsid protein at >20% total soluble protein, corresponding to 1.8 mg/g leaf fresh weight, more than twice the highest level ever reported in a plant system. We also produced the monoclonal antibody rituximab at 1 mg/g leaf fresh weight.