ASU Scholarship Showcase

Background:
Theory suggests that individual behavioral responses impact the spread of flu-like illnesses, but this has been difficult to empirically characterize. Social distancing is an important component of behavioral response, though analyses have been limited by a lack of behavioral data. Our objective is to use media data to characterize social distancing behavior in order to empirically inform explanatory and predictive epidemiological models.

Methods:
We use data on variation in home television viewing as a proxy for variation in time spent in the home and, by extension, contact. This behavioral proxy is imperfect but appealing since information on a rich and representative sample is collected using consistent techniques across time and most major cities. We study the April-May 2009 outbreak of A/H1N1 in Central Mexico and examine the dynamic behavioral response in aggregate and contrast the observed patterns of various demographic subgroups. We develop and calibrate a dynamic behavioral model of disease transmission informed by the proxy data on daily variation in contact rates and compare it to a standard (non-adaptive) model and a fixed effects model that crudely captures behavior.

Results:
We find that after a demonstrable initial behavioral response (consistent with social distancing) at the onset of the outbreak, there was attenuation in the response before the conclusion of the public health intervention. We find substantial differences in the behavioral response across age subgroups and socioeconomic levels. We also find that the dynamic behavioral and fixed effects transmission models better account for variation in new confirmed cases, generate more stable estimates of the baseline rate of transmission over time and predict the number of new cases over a short horizon with substantially less error.

Conclusions:
Results suggest that A/H1N1 had an innate transmission potential greater than previously thought but this was masked by behavioral responses. Observed differences in behavioral response across demographic groups indicate a potential benefit from targeting social distancing outreach efforts.

Background: African American women are one of the least active demographic groups in the US, with only 36% meeting the national physical activity recommendations in comparison to 46% of White women. Physical activity begins to decline in African American women in adolescence and continues to decline into young adulthood. Yet, few interventions have been developed to promote physical activity in African American women during this critical period of life. The purpose of this article was to evaluate the acceptability and feasibility of a culturally-relevant Internet-enhanced physical activity pilot intervention for overweight/obese African American college females and to examine psychosocial and behavioral characteristics associated with intervention adherence and completion.

Methods: A 6-month single group pre-posttest design was used. Participants (n = 27) accessed a culturally-relevant Social Cognitive Theory-based physical activity promotion website while engaging in a minimum of four moderate-intensity physical activity sessions each week. Acceptability and feasibility of the intervention was assessed by participant retention and a consumer satisfaction survey completed by participants.

Results: Fifty-six percent of participants (n = 15) completed the intervention. Study completers were more physically active at baseline (P = 0.05) and had greater social support for exercise from family members (P = 0.04). Sixty percent of study completers (n = 9) reported the website as “enjoyable” or “very enjoyable” to use and 60% (n = 9) reported increased motivation from participation in the physical activity program. Moreover, 87% (n = 13) reported they would recommend the website to a friend.

Conclusions: Results provide some preliminary support for the acceptability and feasibility of an Internet-enhanced physical activity program for overweight/obese African American women, while highlighting important limitations of the approach. Successful promotion of physical activity in college aged African American women as they emerge into adulthood may result in the development of life-long healthy physical activity patterns which may ultimately reduce physical activity-related health disparities in this high risk underserved population. Future studies with larger samples are needed to further explore the use of Internet-based programs to promote physical activity in this population.

Background: Increasing our understanding of the factors affecting the severity of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in different regions of the world could lead to improved clinical practice and mitigation strategies for future influenza pandemics. Even though a number of studies have shed light into the risk factors associated with severe outcomes of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza infections in different populations (e.g., [1-5]), analyses of the determinants of mortality risk spanning multiple pandemic waves and geographic regions are scarce. Between-country differences in the mortality burden of the 2009 pandemic could be linked to differences in influenza case management, underlying population health, or intrinsic differences in disease transmission [6]. Additional studies elucidating the determinants of disease severity globally are warranted to guide prevention efforts in future influenza pandemics.

In Mexico, the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic was characterized by a three-wave pattern occurring in the spring, summer, and fall of 2009 with substantial geographical heterogeneity [7]. A recent study suggests that Mexico experienced high excess mortality burden during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic relative to other countries [6]. However, an assessment of potential factors that contributed to the relatively high pandemic death toll in Mexico are lacking. Here, we fill this gap by analyzing a large series of laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases, hospitalizations, and deaths monitored by the Mexican Social Security medical system during April 1 through December 31, 2009 in Mexico. In particular, we quantify the association between disease severity, hospital admission delays, and neuraminidase inhibitor use by demographic characteristics, pandemic wave, and geographic regions of Mexico.

Methods: We analyzed a large series of laboratory-confirmed pandemic A/H1N1 influenza cases from a prospective surveillance system maintained by the Mexican Social Security system, April-December 2009. We considered a spectrum of disease severity encompassing outpatient visits, hospitalizations, and deaths, and recorded demographic and geographic information on individual patients. We assessed the impact of neuraminidase inhibitor treatment and hospital admission delay (≤ > 2 days after disease onset) on the risk of death by multivariate logistic regression.

Results: Approximately 50% of all A/H1N1-positive patients received antiviral medication during the Spring and Summer 2009 pandemic waves in Mexico while only 9% of A/H1N1 cases received antiviral medications during the fall wave (P < 0.0001). After adjustment for age, gender, and geography, antiviral treatment significantly reduced the risk of death (OR = 0.52 (95% CI: 0.30, 0.90)) while longer hospital admission delays increased the risk of death by 2.8-fold (95% CI: 2.25, 3.41).

Conclusions: Our findings underscore the potential impact of decreasing admission delays and increasing antiviral use to mitigate the mortality burden of future influenza pandemics.

Changes in distribution policies have increased median MELD at transplant with recipients requiring increasing intensive care perioperatively. We aimed to evaluate association of preoperative variables with postoperative respiratory failure (PRF)/increased intensive care unit length of stay (ICU LOS)/short-term survival in a high MELD cohort undergoing liver transplant (LT). Retrospective analysis identified cases of PRF and increased ICU LOS with recipient, donor, and surgical variables examined. Variables were entered into regression with end points of PRF and ICU LOS > 3 days. 164 recipients were examined: 41 (25.0%) experienced PRF and 74 (45.1%) prolonged ICU LOS. Significant predictors of PRF with univariate analysis: BMI > 30, pretransplant MELD, preoperative respiratory failure, LVEF < 50%, FVC < 80%, intraoperative transfusion > 6 units, warm ischemic time > 4 minutes, and cold ischemic time > 240 minutes. On multivariate analysis, only pretransplant MELD predicted PRF (OR 1.14, 𝑝 = 0.01). Significant predictors of prolonged ICU LOS with univariate analysis are as follows: pretransplant MELD, FVC < 80%, FEV1 < 80%, deceased donor, and cold ischemic time > 240 minutes. On multivariate analysis, only pretransplant MELD predicted prolonged ICU LOS (OR 1.28, 𝑝 < 0.001). One-year survival among cohorts with PRF and increased ICU LOS was similar to subjects without. Pretransplant MELD is a robust predictor of PRF and ICU LOS. Higher MELDs at LT are expected to increase need for ICU utilization and modify expectations for recovery in the immediate postoperative period.

Objectives: To determine the off-shift sleep strategies of bi-ethnic night-shift nurses, the relationship between these sleep strategies and adaptation to shift work, and identify the participant-level characteristics associated with a given sleep strategy.

Methods: African-American and non-Hispanic White female, night-shift nurses from an academic hospital were recruited to complete a survey on sleep–wake patterns (n = 213). Participants completed the standard shiftwork index and the biological clocks questionnaire to determine sleep strategies and adaptation to night-shift work. In addition, chronotype was determined quantitatively with a modified version of the Munich ChronoType Questionnaire. Most participants worked ~3 consecutive 12-h night-shifts followed by several days off.

Results: Five sleep strategies used on days off were identified: (a) night stay, (b) nap proxy, (c) switch sleeper, (d) no sleep, and (e) incomplete switcher. Nap proxy and no sleep types were associated with poorer adaptation to night-shift work. The switch sleeper and incomplete switcher types were identified as more adaptive strategies that were associated with less sleep disturbance, a later chronotype, and less cardiovascular problems.

Conclusion: Behavioral sleep strategies are related to adaptation to a typical night-shift schedule among hospital nurses. Nurses are crucial to the safety and well-being of their patients. Therefore, adoption of more adaptive sleep strategies may reduce sleep/wake dysregulation in this population, and improve cardiovascular outcomes.

Previous studies have shown that parental protectiveness is associated with increased pain and disability in Functional Abdominal Pain Disorder (FAPD) but the role that perceived child self-efficacy may play remains unclear. One reason why parents may react protectively towards their child’s pain is that they perceive their child to be unable to cope or function normally while in pain (perceived low self-efficacy). This study sought to examine (a) the association between parent-perceived child pain self-efficacy and child health outcomes (symptom severity and disability); and (b) the role of parental protectiveness as a mediator of this association. Participants were 316 parents of children aged 7–12 years with FAPD. Parents completed measures of perceived child self-efficacy when in pain, their own protective responses to their child’s pain, child gastrointestinal (GI) symptom severity, and child functional disability. Parent-perceived child self-efficacy was inversely associated with parent-reported child GI symptom severity and disability, and parental protectiveness mediated these associations. These results suggest that parents who perceive their child to have low self-efficacy to cope with pain respond more protectively when they believe he/she is in pain, and this, in turn, is associated with higher levels of GI symptoms and disability in their child. This finding suggests that directly addressing parent beliefs about their child’s ability to manage pain should be included as a component of FAPD, and potentially other child treatment interventions.

Background: Numerous studies have reported that spending time in nature is associated with the improvement of various health outcomes and well-being. This review evaluated the physical and psychological benefits of a specific type of exposure to nature, forest therapy.

Method: A literature search was carried out using MEDLINE, PubMed, ScienceDirect, EMBASE, and ProQuest databases and manual searches from inception up to December 2016. Key words: “Forest” or “Shinrin -Yoku” or “Forest bath” AND “Health” or “Wellbeing”. The methodological quality of each randomized controlled trials (RCTs) was assessed according to the Cochrane risk of bias (ROB) tool.

Results: Six RCTs met the inclusion criteria. Participants’ ages ranged from 20 to 79 years. Sample size ranged from 18 to 99. Populations studied varied from young healthy university students to elderly people with chronic disease. Studies reported the positive impact of forest therapy on hypertension (n = 2), cardiac and pulmonary function (n = 1), immune function (n = 2), inflammation (n = 3), oxidative stress (n = 1), stress (n = 1), stress hormone (n = 1), anxiety (n = 1), depression (n = 2), and emotional response (n = 3). The quality of all studies included in this review had a high ROB.

Conclusion: Forest therapy may play an important role in health promotion and disease prevention. However, the lack of high-quality studies limits the strength of results, rendering the evidence insufficient to establish clinical practice guidelines for its use. More robust RCTs are warranted.

Background: Many patients with cancer or other systemic illnesses can experience malnutrition. One way to mitigate malnutrition is by insertion of a percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy feeding tube (PEG tube). The goal of this retrospective matched cohort study is to evaluate if PEG tube placement improved nutritional status and overall survival (OS) in advanced gastroesophageal (GE) cancer patients who are undergoing anti-neoplastic therapy.

Methods: GE cancer patients who were treated and evaluated by a nutritionist and had at least 2 nutritionist follow-up visits were identified. Patients with PEG tube were matched to patients that did not undergo PEG placement (non-PEG). Clinical characteristics, GE symptoms reported at nutrition follow-up visits, and OS were recorded.

Results: 20 PEG and 18 non-PEG cases met criteria for further analyses. After correction for multiple testing, there were no OS differences between PEG and non-PEG, treatment naive and previously treated. However, PEG esophageal carcinoma has statistically significant inferior OS compared with non-PEG esophageal carcinoma. PEG placement did not significantly reduce the proportion of patients with weight loss between the initial nutrition assessment and 12-week follow-up.

Conclusions: In this small study, PEG placement had inferior OS outcome for GE esophageal carcinoma, no improvement in OS for other evaluated groups, and did not reduce weight loss between baseline and 12-week follow-up. Unless there is prospective randomized trial that can show superiority of PEG placement in this population, PEG placement in this group cannot be endorsed.

Background: Extreme heat is a public health challenge. The scarcity of directly comparable studies on the association of heat with morbidity and mortality and the inconsistent identification of threshold temperatures for severe impacts hampers the development of comprehensive strategies aimed at reducing adverse heat-health events.

Objectives: This quantitative study was designed to link temperature with mortality and morbidity events in Maricopa County, Arizona, USA, with a focus on the summer season.
Methods: Using Poisson regression models that controlled for temporal confounders, we assessed daily temperature–health associations for a suite of mortality and morbidity events, diagnoses, and temperature metrics. Minimum risk temperatures, increasing risk temperatures, and excess risk temperatures were statistically identified to represent different “trigger points” at which heat-health intervention measures might be activated.

Results: We found significant and consistent associations of high environmental temperature with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, heat-related mortality, and mortality resulting from conditions that are consequences of heat and dehydration. Hospitalizations and emergency department visits due to heat-related conditions and conditions associated with consequences of heat and dehydration were also strongly associated with high temperatures, and there were several times more of those events than there were deaths. For each temperature metric, we observed large contrasts in trigger points (up to 22°C) across multiple health events and diagnoses.

Conclusion: Consideration of multiple health events and diagnoses together with a comprehensive approach to identifying threshold temperatures revealed large differences in trigger points for possible interventions related to heat. Providing an array of heat trigger points applicable for different end-users may improve the public health response to a problem that is projected to worsen in the coming decades.

Limited research has compared the circadian phase-shifting effects of bright light and exercise and additive effects of these stimuli. The aim of this study was to compare the phase-delaying effects of late night bright light, late night exercise, and late evening bright light followed by early morning exercise. In a within-subjects, counterbalanced design, 6 young adults completed each of three 2.5-day protocols. Participants followed a 3-h ultra-short sleep-wake cycle, involving wakefulness in dim light for 2h, followed by attempted sleep in darkness for 1 h, repeated throughout each protocol. On night 2 of each protocol, participants received either (1) bright light alone (5,000 lux) from 2210–2340 h, (2) treadmill exercise alone from 2210–2340 h, or (3) bright light (2210–2340 h) followed by exercise from 0410–0540 h. Urine was collected every 90 min. Shifts in the 6-sulphatoxymelatonin (aMT6s) cosine acrophase from baseline to post-treatment were compared between treatments. Analyses revealed a significant additive phase-delaying effect of bright light + exercise (80.8 ± 11.6 [SD] min) compared with exercise alone (47.3 ± 21.6 min), and a similar phase delay following bright light alone (56.6 ± 15.2 min) and exercise alone administered for the same duration and at the same time of night. Thus, the data suggest that late night bright light followed by early morning exercise can have an additive circadian phase-shifting effect.